Non-K-November basho 2020 Discussion (spoiler space)

[pricklypomegranate 730]

Source: https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202011230000592.html and https://www.chunichi.co.jp/article/158971/

Not sure if this belongs on this thread, or a new thread discussing the Y/O Preparations for Hatsu 2021. I think it's still a little early, but do let me know. 

Woosh. The YDC are coming in hot, emboldened by the opportunity of a new Japanese Yokozuna. Here is what Chairman Yano has to say about the "warning" they have issued to the two troubled Mongolian Yokozuna: 

[About the "warning"]: "Apart from the results, the two Yokozunas have been going kyujo too often. I want you to take deeper and stronger responsibility for your actions in the future." 

[About issuing a warning more severe than Kisenosato's]: "We have calculated and discussed the number of kyujos the two Yokozunas have had over the past 12 places. I cannot say that they are fulfilling Yokozuna responsibilities. The both of them are resting together. Everyone should have better awareness and deeper analysis of their performances." 

[DominiKaze 11]

I was mostly asking to see if my three new faves were anywhere near (Hokotofuji, Tochinoshin and Takarafuji) Looks like no, but man its fun watching them fight. When your fave fighters go against eachother how do you even know who to root for?!

[pricklypomegranate 730]

This is just my opinion, so I am writing it separately from the original news post. Well, surprise, surprise, I don't think it's remotely fair at all: 

1. I get Yano's argument that the two yokozunas resting simultaneously does amplify their culpability. But that is not enough to overcome the fact that Hakuho's situation and Kakuryu's situation are very different. Why are they both having equivalent punishments? 

2. I understand that Kisenosato was a new Yokozuna and was expected to recover from his injuries, as compared to very ancient Yokozunas, who have near no chance of total recovery under the schedule. However, if we look at the 12-basho spread that Yano claims to have "calculated", Hakuho's and even Kakuryu's looks better than Kisenosato's. Why are they both having more severe punishments? 

3. Why is the sample (12-basho range) so random? I get that its comparing it to Kisenosato, but why is he being the reference here? His short Yokozuna career is not representative of all Yokozunas in the 6BPY era. Why aren't we looking at Yokozuna lifetimes, or even just an average of all of these Yokozunas? To me, that seemed a little short sighted. 

You know, we often say that the YDC is just making noise, but this now seems like an actual threat. Perhaps I am missing something, but it looks like the YDC is actually the one that has to do more in-depth analysis. I almost want Takakeisho's tsuna run ruined so that such judgement can be overturned, but I know it's not his fault for having started his run at this crucial time. It was a culmination of many societal factors beyond sumo and we certainly can't blame the Ozeki for that. 

Edited November 23, 2020 by pricklypomegranate

[Gurowake 3,888]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Come on, we know it's just talk. There is always some riji saying negative stuff about a forthcoming run. It's for  motivational purposes. And Isegahama was probably pissed off because his guy was beaten by the very same Yokozuna prospect so he felt like raining on his parade. I think even a 12-3 will be enough.

Yeah, I think the "weak Yusho" issue is if it's an 11-4 (or worse).  I think they said back with Musashimaru's 11-4 Yusho that it was meaningless towards a tsuna run.  Anything worse than 12-3 is not really seen as worthy of consideration as a "real" Yusho.  It's just the fact they have to give it to someone.

[just_some_guy 248]

19 hours ago, Bombur said:

Also, can we talk about how Ichinojo came back from a 2-7 record and won out?

My theory is that his coffee maker was broken up until day 10. Caffeinojo is unstoppable!

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

Our household theory is that when Ichinojo mounts the dohyou with laser-eyes the other guy has no chance. You can see it in his face sometimes.

The whole second half of the basho he had the laser eyes.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

2 hours ago, pricklypomegranate said:

This is just my opinion, so I am writing it separately from the original news post. Well, surprise, surprise, I don't think it's remotely fair at all: 

1. I get Yano's argument that the two yokozunas resting simultaneously does amplify their culpability. But that is not enough to overcome the fact that Hakuho's situation and Kakuryu's situation are very different. Why are they both having equivalent punishments? 

2. I understand that Kisenosato was a new Yokozuna and was expected to recover from his injuries, as compared to very ancient Yokozunas, who have near no chance of total recovery under the schedule. However, if we look at the 12-basho spread that Yano claims to have "calculated", Hakuho's and even Kakuryu's looks better than Kisenosato's. Why are they both having more severe punishments? 

3. Why is the sample (12-basho range) so random? I get that its comparing it to Kisenosato, but why is he being the reference here? His short Yokozuna career is not representative of all Yokozunas in the 6BPY era. Why aren't we looking at Yokozuna lifetimes, or even just an average of all of these Yokozunas? To me, that seemed a little short sighted. 

You know, we often say that the YDC is just making noise, but this now seems like an actual threat. Perhaps I am missing something, but it looks like the YDC is actually the one that has to do more in-depth analysis. I almost want Takakeisho's tsuna run ruined so that such judgement can be overturned, but I know it's not his fault for having started his run at this crucial time. It was a culmination of many societal factors beyond sumo and we certainly can't blame the Ozeki for that. 

I will bet you that half the answer is due to psychological bias - they see only what they want to see. That being said, I think you and the YDC are approaching "fairness" from different perspectives, and there's only how fair a bunch of 60+ year olds whose explicit remit is to be conservative can be from a modern sport perspective. And really, even though their last full bashos were respectable, their number of absences for known aging rikishi at the end of their careers is quite an elephant in the room. Let's also not fool ourselves into thinking that nationality has nothing to do with it; why pass up a great chance to get rid of both Mongolian yokozuna when the top end of the banzuke is finally occupied by Japanese? But of course they can't be as blatant as that.

1. Two basho, no yokozuna, both share the blame, simple as that, never mind the previous record. It's not about whether they are "entitled" to some kyujo, it's that the fans have had no yokozuna for 2 basho in a row. Asanoyama and Shodai sitting out this doesn't help matters, even if that can't be attributed to the yokozunas. It's not a question of "blame", it's a question of what should be, and the yokozuna have failed to materialise that reality, therefore they are at fault. Harsh? Yes. Entirely unjustified? Eh, I don't think so....

2. It's well known that the two yokozuna have ulterior reasons for staying in sumo, whereas Kisenosato and the entire stable were making noises about recovery. This is a question of optics as you've already stated - there was the outside hope that Kisenosato as a Japanese yokozuna could recover from his injuries, whereas it's fairly well known that the two Mongolian yokozuna are treading water until certain timelines. Also, Kisenosato had two other yokozuna to cover him, but Hakuho and Kakuryu don't. Quite frankly, purely as a fan, this basho was very flat in the first half because of all the absences. I'm personally sympathetic to Hakuho and Kakuryu's reasons for trying to hang on, but if I were a member of the paying public I'd feel mildly cheated. Let's switch it up a bit - if neither man didn't have their reason for staying in sumo, should they still be allowed to hang on like they have been?

3. Most recent case where injury is seriously pleaded, and most extensive kyujo due to injury. I agree Takanohana is probably a better comparison, although his name is probably taboo in the NSK. Also, if you really want to plead Hakuho/Kakuryu's cases, you shouldn't be looking at yokozuna lifetimes because Hakuho should be out by that metric (he, Chiyonofuji and Kakuryu are massive outliers for retirement age), and you don't look at yokozuna averages because you're looking at their end-of-career performance, not the average. It's accepted that Kisenosato's yokozuna career essentially ended with his only yusho, and the rest of it was delaying the end. It feels to me like the implied threat is that their end of career should not be like Kisenosato's or there will be more intervention, which means that their next 4-5 basho should be full bashos.

So what if Takakeisho's tsuna run is ruined? Pre-Akebono has already established the precedent that there needn't be yokozuna on the banzuke as long as there are at least 2 yokozuna or ozeki. If Hakuho and Kakuryu don't go the full distance in January, the only thing that will save them is both Asanoyama and Shodai failing to clear kadoban, because that will really create the spectre of only one yokozuna-ozeki in March. 

Kakuryu is the main target here, because after his yusho last July, his performances have been one jun-yusho and no other completed basho. Hakuho is still in decent shape, but he's either convenient collateral damage or, if as we were discussing, his zenkyu this round was a tactical decision to partially shield Kakuryu, then he's just brought himself into the firing line as well. Neither men have helped their own cases with Hakuho "letting slip" that he would have retired this year, and Kakuryu wondering at the fact that he's still doing sumo at his age; Kisenosato all the while was still attempting to "heal" from his injury and it wasn't till the truth was unignorable that he finally bowed out.

The good news is that they haven't been outright recommended to retire, which means both men could save themselves with credible full performances at Hatsu. Hakuho probably has it in him. I'm not so sure about Kakuryu. The YDC have made some real hooters of statements in the past, and their present statement is a bit strongly worded and occasionally deficient in logic, but they're overall right even if for the wrong reasons. Someone has got to come out and say, look, if you choose not to retire for whatever reason, that's your lookout, but you better look like a yokozuna while you still hold the rank. That message needed to be delivered; it's a pity the logic behind it is assailable.

[Kintamayama 44,277]

I think Hakuhou is in great shape. He just sat out because he can. He'll probably come back and zensho.  Kakuryuu is done. Not because of anything physical. The day his shisho died and he moved to Kirishima, signaled the end. Kakuryuu, unlike most Yokozuna who had little or no regard for their oyakata after attaining the rank, was very close to his oyakata and his death was a devastating blow. Sure, he has injuries, but he always had them and managed to soldier on. He did get that 12-3 JY in March, but other than that, missed 94 days and was 1-7 when active after Sakahoko's death. He just seemed like he doesn't want to soldier on anymore. I don't either.. He wants to be forced to retire. I doubt we'll see him doing well ever again. The YDC serves a purpose and should not be taken literally. They are just there to light a fire under the butts needing it. And when xenophobia is implied in any way related to sumo is when the discussion, any discussion, at least for me, is over. 

[Sue 476]

57 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Our household theory is that when Ichinojo mounts the dohyou with laser-eyes the other guy has no chance. You can see it in his face sometimes.

When he actually brings his A game, he's a monster. It's getting him to bring his A game, and not check out completely, that's the trick.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

17 minutes ago, Sue said:

When he actually brings his A game, he's a monster. It's getting him to bring his A game, and not check out completely, that's the trick.

I don't think its really him checking out (I don't think anyone in makunouchi checks out during a honbasho, they have 45 other days to mentally check out). There might be some pep talk someone is successful at giving him but they might also be breaking out the stronger pain meds on some days.

[Sue 476]

18 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I don't think its really him checking out (I don't think anyone in makunouchi checks out during a honbasho, they have 45 other days to mentally check out). There might be some pep talk someone is successful at giving him but they might also be breaking out the stronger pain meds on some days.

He gets a "deer in the headlights" look on his face, visibly gives up, and gets easily shoved out. That's what I mean by "checking out." When he's on, he's Akebono; when he's off, he's Hattorizakura.

[Churaumi 726]

I just chalk that up to back pain. If someone can stand him up and get him moving backward, that puts s lot of stress on his lower backs and he more or less walks out.

[Jabbamaru 166]

Ichi is my favorite. He's so cute! I just love the guy. But we have to face it... His back is not reliable and he have the aggressivity of a poney...

[hakutorizakura 586]

Ichi has back pain. He does well when his back is against the wall. Conclusion: the invisible wall gives his back comfort? 

[yohcun 393]

I love Ichinojo but I think he's peaked, sadly. There was a period around 2018 where he was a reliable sekiwake, and looked like he might push for ozeki. But, he was 230kg. His back can't handle that weight anymore, and without it, he's back to that mid-maegashira form.

[Karasukurai 165]

Anyone bored already? January seems a long way off.

[Kaminariyuki 497]

On 23/11/2020 at 10:42, Kintamayama said:

I think Hakuhou is in great shape. He just sat out because he can. He'll probably come back and zensho.  Kakuryuu is done. Not because of anything physical. The day his shisho died and he moved to Kirishima, signaled the end. Kakuryuu, unlike most Yokozuna who had little or no regard for their oyakata after attaining the rank, was very close to his oyakata and his death was a devastating blow. Sure, he has injuries, but he always had them and managed to soldier on. He did get that 12-3 JY in March, but other than that, missed 94 days and was 1-7 when active after Sakahoko's death. He just seemed like he doesn't want to soldier on anymore. I don't either.. He wants to be forced to retire. I doubt we'll see him doing well ever again. The YDC serves a purpose and should not be taken literally. They are just there to light a fire under the butts needing it. And when xenophobia is implied in any way related to sumo is when the discussion, any discussion, at least for me, is over. 

This is so close to my own analysis, I just say, right.

[Kaminariyuki 497]

Well, that was a basho to be glad for. As we enter banzuke oazuke,

there is "plenty" of time to reflect. And, to argue.

Enho is clearly suffering, but if his oyakata's words are not a dodge (and I don't think they are), hopefully he recovers significantly and puts up numbers in hatsu to return to makuuchi. 

We have all been watching and commenting on the changing of the guard, clearly under way. The YDC grows impatient. I suspect that some of our top sekitori currently ascending the banzuke will be short lived fixtures in the sanyaku, relatively speaking. The combination of being battered severely by the most recent four yokozuna, the guys only a handful of years their junior have taken a very serious beating, not like sumo is ever a sport for the timid or those with a low threshold of pain. Looking at the truly young bucks coming up, my guess is that they will overtake the crew in between. Kotooshoho is looking fairly impressive, and even if our two M-1 got a full taste of what being in the join-jin means, I suspect more work, weight and experience are going to take them far. Akua and Tobizaru also had some impressive matches. The future of sumo looks bright.

And, if nothing else works out, Ura is back, at least for a while. And, if the boy's near the tawara, better not take it easy when he has his back to you...

[RabidJohn 1,649]

13 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Akua and Tobizaru also had some impressive matches. The future of sumo looks bright.

Akua and Tobizaru may be new to makuuchi, but they are late bloomers. Their part in the future of sumo will be limited by age.

But yeah, I'm not worried for the future. Kotoshoho and Hoshoryu both have bags of unrefined talent already; they're only going to get better. 

I believe all 3 current ozeki have it in them to get the rope if the cards fall in their favour, but only Asanoyama is likely to have any longevity. Takakeisho is injury prone, so he will shorten his career if he gets it in January, and Shodai is already one of the oldest ozeki promotions.

Never say never and all that, but at the moment I don't envisage any of the younger rikishi overtaking these 3 ozeki and beating them to the rope. 

[Amamaniac 2,078]

20 hours ago, Karasukurai said:

Anyone bored already? January seems a long way off.

It's called "sumo loss" in pseudo-English Japanese.  Get used to it ... I haven't. 

[Bombur 50]

4 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I believe all 3 current ozeki have it in them to get the rope if the cards fall in their favour, but only Asanoyama is likely to have any longevity. Takakeisho is injury prone, so he will shorten his career if he gets it in January

I don't get that. Why would making yokozuna shorten the career of injury prone rikishis when that allow you to take tournaments off without the risk of losing your rank? Sure, you can't abuse it, but that's still better than the ozeki privileges.

[Karasukurai 165]

3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

 Get used to it ...

[Seiyashi 4,068]

1 hour ago, Bombur said:

I don't get that. Why would making yokozuna shorten the career of injury prone rikishis when that allow you to take tournaments off without the risk of losing your rank? Sure, you can't abuse it, but that's still better than the ozeki privileges.

Kisenosato. Because if your injury incapacitates your sumo (as damn near happened to Takakeisho when he tore his pec against Mitakeumi), and it doesn't recover, you're finished as a rikishi and can only retire. Whereas as an ozeki, like Terunofuji, Tochinoshin and Kotoshogiku, you can still fall down the ranks and try and come back up, or at least stick around in the maegashira ranks for quite a while and reinvent your sumo there.

You do need to horribly mismanage your recovery, but that's not as uncommon in sumo as we'd like to think. And there's also a time limit - Takanohana and Kisenosato sat out for 7-8 tournaments, and that was cutting it very close.

[Kaminariyuki 497]

3 hours ago, Bombur said:

I don't get that. Why would making yokozuna shorten the career of injury prone rikishis when that allow you to take tournaments off without the risk of losing your rank? Sure, you can't abuse it, but that's still better than the ozeki privileges.

It "could" go either way, but I think Seiyashi and Rabid John are correct, getting the rope would likely cut man rikishi's' careers short. There are privileges with being a yokozuna, but there are some pretty serious expectations, as well, and the perform or retire push has got to be the biggest down side.

[Bombur 50]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Kisenosato. Because if your injury incapacitates your sumo (as damn near happened to Takakeisho when he tore his pec against Mitakeumi), and it doesn't recover, you're finished as a rikishi and can only retire. Whereas as an ozeki, like Terunofuji, Tochinoshin and Kotoshogiku, you can still fall down the ranks and try and come back up, or at least stick around in the maegashira ranks for quite a while and reinvent your sumo there.

You do need to horribly mismanage your recovery, but that's not as uncommon in sumo as we'd like to think. And there's also a time limit - Takanohana and Kisenosato sat out for 7-8 tournaments, and that was cutting it very close.

Yeah, it's true that you could make a Tochinoshin/Terunofuji and plunge deep into the rankings before climbing back up to the top, but that's not so common, or the two aforementioned men's stories wouldn't have been such a bing things. Which means that an injured ozeki Takakeisho could maybe do that, but if he mismanages his recovery like Kise, he could just as well plunge and never climb back, we can't know for sure. I think I'd still see it as a good thing if he gets the rope.

A comparison to the Giku road is a different thing. It doesn't seem very pertinent to me as the man never took an entire tournament off, nor did he ever went partial kyujo for two consecutive bashos until he retired, it just seems like age progressively grinded him down, which happens to everyone, yokozuna or not. But hey, let's say he won a few more yushos, got the rope and then retired when he lost ozeki in our timeline, maybe we could say that's when the YDC would have recommended he retires because he no longer delivered. That would mean we would have had a more glorious Kotoshogiku with a few great years at the cost of being deprived from his later less succesful years, which actually seems like a great deal to me (though yeah, you're right and it indeed shortens his career).