Gurowake

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Gurowake last won the day on July 22 2018

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About Gurowake

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  1. Gurowake

    Games Talk Hatsu 2019

    I think he's referring to betting on the top-ranked rikishi to win every day. You won't likely be top 10, but unless things go really bad you'll win a reasonable number of them and will only drop a few points net, enough to still get a KK with very little risk (or much skill). There are a few people who "specialize" in it, or at least did when I paid more attention. They might be able to stay sanyaku forever, but they'll never make Ozeki. It was a lot better back when Harumafuji was around and the Yokozuna would almost always participate.
  2. Now on to Guess Araiso-oyakata's Aite. 5. Myogiryu
  3. Gurowake

    Rikishi Status Hatsu 2019 - Day 4 Intai

    I was about to post the same thing. A half hour is quite a while. I hate when it's even 15 minutes late. At least it's an hour "earlier" this time of year.
  4. Gurowake

    Guess Kisenosato's Aite rule discussion

    After more thought, I realized that it's not just a problem when there are two people two ahead, but when only two people can win and if they were to pick the same person, one of them would be guaranteed a win. My solution to the problem I brought up works only for the previously-concieved problem, and not for ones where they have different numbers of points after Day 14. Thus I shall fall back to what I really think the solution should be to begin with: If only two players can win the Yusho after Day 14, they make their picks privately to a third person, most likely Jejima or Jakusotsu, but if those were the two people involved, we'll pick someone else.
  5. Gurowake

    Terunofuji's health problems

    While, if he had managed 10 wins in that tournament, Kotoshogiku would have had his Ozeki rank for a few more tournaments, with another demotion and immediate repromotion if he had had the same results he had in reality, he also had 2 kinboshi during that time. If he sticks around as long as Aminishiki, those two kinboshi will likely be worth a lot more than a few basho at Ozeki in terms of money, although I'm not inclined to do the math. So in the long run it may have been better for him, although he obviously couldn't know that at the time.
  6. Gurowake

    Guess Kisenosato's Aite rule discussion

    Now that that's that and we've determined that this game is srs bsns , I'd like to talk about a slight tweak to the Yusho tiebreaker rules that I think makes sense. Right now, the first tie-breaker is whether you were right on senshuraku, the next is if you were right on Day 14, and so on back to the beginning of the tournament. If there are two players that are 2 points ahead of the field on senshuraku, then the one that is in position to win on tiebreaks can force a win by picking the same as the person behind on tiebreaks. The fact that all picks are made openly makes this possible, so we could just go to secret submissions on senshuraku if there are two people two points ahead of the field. My idea, consistent with how picks are made currently, is to punish the person with the better tiebreaker if they make the same pick as the other player after the other player does so and the guess turns out to be wrong. So the specific scenario is: 1) Two players are 2 points or more ahead of everyone else after Day 14 2) The person with the better tiebreaker makes the same pick as the person with the worse tiebreaker 3) The person with the better tiebreaker makes their pick later in time than the person with the worse tiebreaker 4) The pick is wrong. In that situation, I believe the Yusho should go to the person who by the current system has the worse tiebreaker, as the player with the better tiebreaker engineered it such that they would automatically win, and cannot defend themselves by saying they simply made the right pick. Now, it's possible to simplify things slightly by making the new tiebreaker a bit more inclusive than that particular scenario. A relatively simple rule that covers the above case is "If all players tied for the lead after senshuraku were wrong on senshuraku, the first tiebreaker is first submitted (final) senshuraku pick". This has slightly wider applicability, as it might apply if all the leaders were wrong with different picks, there would be potentially more than 2 involved, and there would be no requirement that they be ahead by 2 going into senshuraku - it would simply require all the players one behind to also be wrong. It would potentially bias things slightly more towards making a first pick rather than being right, as often senshuraku is a bit of a lottery, and that bias is a potential problem because of Time Zones and the ability to pick for senshuraku speculatively even before the Day 14 matches are announced, which kinda goes against the basic nature of the game (as people told me when I was playing this game similar to a pre-basho game). So I can see arguments that the rule only makes sense in the specific scenario in which the current rules are abused the most, which means it has a lot of complications to it and thus makes it an overly specific rule. In the case that this rule is deemed too complicated, I suggest that in the basic scenario of 2 players 2 or more ahead after Day 14 that they be asked to make picks privately to a third party. I don't think it's necessary to do this for days before the last, as if you know that you can't just match every day including senshuraku to guarantee victory, there's no reason to go out of your way to do it before senshuraku.
  7. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2019 Superbanzuke Ranking

    Well, if someone has a way to automatically compile the winning picks per basho per player, I can probably create a spreadsheet that turns them into final rankings. Like if I get a list of all the picks in the basho not updated, in a CSV format like Basho_year, Basho_Month, player_name, rikishi_picked with one line per winning pick, I don't think it would be too much of a burden on me to compile the resulting rankings. I'm not, however, going to try to get such a list of winning picks. Someone with more experience parsing data from websites would be much better suited to that task. Obviously it would be easier if the automation already in place took care of it, and it's probably too late now to get them run for this SB release.
  8. Gurowake

    Games Talk Hatsu 2019

    Sure, yeah, I'm giving up 6 points to the people who picked 3 if Kisenosato doesn't come around, but those 6 points last basho would have moved me from 2nd to tied for 4th. The same sort of thing was true for the 2nd place finishers in Aki (they actually would have a tie for 3rd if both went down 6 points). Now, last basho was definitely something of an anomaly, where the 2nd place finisher warranted a 15-0 (which has never happened before) while on my two Yusho I was given 12-3 and 13-2, and if you go back to Nagoya that 6 points would take 1st place to the bottom of the top 10, so I understand the concern. But there also was Nagoya 2016 where Screeching Owl won by 7 points (but scored a 12-3). 6 points is certainly a lot, but I wouldn't count out yet anyone in the top ranks who went with a KK for Kisenosato. There's 68 other rikishi to pick for, and while you're probably only going to get 1 point on each against most people, and very often will be picking identically to a lot of folks, there's still plenty of room to distinguish yourself. It's also not quite a done deal that Kisenosato is going to do poorly. Sure, I'd say more likely than not at this point he's not going to do well, but it ain't over till it's over.
  9. Gurowake

    Games Bugs

    It appears to be some problem with the two matches that we alluded to in the first posts of the Games Talk thread. Those two matches were advertised as worth 8 TB points regardless of which side you picked, whereas anyone who picked any of the 4 rikishi ended up with 0 TB, even if their other pick was not in the other match and was reported as worth some number of TB pts, while the 2 heavily-chosen matches were shown as worth 0.
  10. Gurowake

    Banzuke for Hatsu 2019

    Takakeisho (well, Sato) started from Mz. That was quite a bit added before he got to where Mitakeumi started in Ozumo.
  11. Gurowake

    Are you ready for some sumo !!? Predictions

    I don't think 10 is going to be good enough regardless and they'll merely encourage him to get 10 the next tournament. They aren't going to be in a hurry to promote someone as young and inexperienced as Takakeisho, especially an oshi guy. After the short Ozeki careers of Dejima and Miyabiyama, they want to see a longer history before promotion, or at least much stronger fundamentals (and by that I mean yotsu-zumo) or undeniable skill. (Chiyotaikai was promoted *before* the other two; he lasted 10 years at the rank and thus those other two were distant memories by the time he was finally demoted.)
  12. I've thought about this a bit more, and if we're talking about taking a rikishi from Makuuchi and putting them in Makushita or Juryo, it depends a lot on *where* in Makushita they get put. Put them in the bottom 1/4, and they're much more likely to win the Makushita Yusho, and it's probably easier to win a Makushita Yusho from there assuming a Makuuchi skill level than it is from anywhere in Juryo.