Gurowake

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Gurowake last won the day on October 4

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About Gurowake

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  1. Gurowake

    Ajigawa beya born

    If Mitakeumi hadn't been promoted, he would have fit the criteria, assuming he would have retired sooner rather than later. It's specifically for rikishi like him that enter Ozumo out of college, are mainstays of the sanyaku ranks, but never push up to Ozeki, and then have to retire or otherwise decline before they can get the 10 years in Makuuchi. No one fits that bill yet, but it could happen. It definitely interesting that they added that criteria as a different one from being Ozeki, because when I first read about it many years ago it didn't say Ozeki qualified automatically, and figured the 25 sanyaku tournaments were mainly to only have Ozeki qualify.
  2. Gurowake

    New recruits Hatsu 2023

    If he does compete and win, I don't see how much there is that's necessarily set in stone for the Ms15 start instead of the Ms10 start. That doesn't matter until the first round pairings are made.
  3. Gurowake

    Future prospects to keep an eye on

    I've updated the first post to include a link to a spreadsheet I worked on today that intended to be a good visual reference for all the rikishi on the current banzuke who ever qualified for this list. Because going to the first post is more work, here's the link as well: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C-z9NrU2GQRrqCzMFfla9n6W1iZLaWyUIbN759-RMw8/edit?usp=sharing
  4. Gurowake

    GTB invite- Hatsu 2023- 14 entries so far, 19 days to go

    I suggested that room be made for more than 4 of each of the lower sanyaku, as I foresee some people wanting to have more than 4 at Komusubi, but anyone wishing to make a such a guess right now would apparently have to send it via regular email. I don't know if an expansion of the available lower sanyaku slots on the entry form is on the horizon or not.
  5. Gurowake

    New Juryo for Hatsu

    It's been a long time coming for Shonannoumi. He was on my long-term prospects lists (see the "Future prospects to keep an eye on" for the criteria) for Aki 2014, Kyushu 2014, Haru 2015, Nagoya 2016 through Haru 2017, Aki 2017 through Nagoya 2018, but then failed to make any further progress until recently, and I'd all but given up hope for him. He was first in the Makushita joi in Hatsu 2018, first in the normal promotion zone (Ms5) in Natsu 2019, had a 1-6 and didn't get back until Kyushu 2021, had a 2-5, and didn't get back again until Aki 2022, where two straight 5-2s got him over the line. Despite being in Makushita for 6 years, since he got there pretty young, he's still only 24. Since he failed to keep pace with the prospect criteria I don't see him making Ozeki, but he could still have a reasonable career.
  6. I think it's a function of how badly they want more Ozeki. While I'm sure they don't want to have to deal with the situation when they may have to forgo a demotion or make a weak promotion in order to get two of them, we really don't know how much they're going to do to make this happen. The banzuke-making decisions are always a bit fluid and we're not privy to exactly what goes on, and I'm going to guess the eagerness for more Ozeki differs between oyakata. But in the end all we see are the results, and I don't really recall them ever doing much to explain their decision-making process. Could they put Takayasu to Sekiwake and then promote him with 10 wins? It's not against any hard-and-fast rules, so certainly. I would personally set his target at 12 though, as that 11-4 from M4w should be discounted at least 2 wins - but I'm not on the committee.
  7. Gurowake

    The Graph

    While I'm not sure if it's literally true for YBF since I think he's from somewhere in Europe, but when the decisions are made, it's still Tuesday somewhere in the world.
  8. Gurowake

    The Graph

    There's quite often, especially recently with lower yusho scores, a very real possibility of a 3+w-PO after Day 14, but it's generally only a hypothetical situation that usually doesn't materialize because the lone leader wins their match and settles it that way. This time the lone leader was Takayasu...
  9. Gurowake

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    I think association football fans prefer their games be low-scoring. If there are 10 goals every game, each one isn't as sweet. I definitely remember the only goal I scored in high school on the varsity team where I played defender, but I was one of the main attackers on the JV team and I have no idea how many goals I scored (I assume some?). I would definitely be in favor of getting rid of offside though. I also remember one game I was a linesman for, I saw a ball played that might have been offside, and it was my job to flag if it was or not. I have no clue if it was offside or not, because it was really close. But I remember the main referee look over to me as the ball was played, and I had to make a snap decision and I sorta feel bad for flagging it even though it wasn't clear. Now that they apparently have computerized review it's probably a bit more fair, but it's still silly seeing the results that this one guy's arm was 2 inches closer to the goal than the defender.
  10. Gurowake

    Ridiculous Predictions Kyushu 2022

    Next basho, with Takayasu at Sekiwake, the 4 Sekiwake and Takakeisho mostly don't lose to anyone outside of the group. The intragroup 10 losses are distributed so Takakeisho has 1, the non-Shodai Sekiwake have 2 each, and Shodai has 3, which gives him two extra losses to still make it back. This will be enough to see all 5 of them promoted.
  11. Gurowake

    YDC conveners after Kyushu 2022

    2 of these were 8-7s while kadoban after injury, where he ended with 3 and 4 straight losses. I don't think he really cared after he cleared kadoban in those basho. Now the third 8-7, with a 6-7 start, that's a bit more troubling.
  12. Gurowake

    YDC conveners after Kyushu 2022

    I'm not too surprised by this pronouncement. I think they really would like to get another Yokozuna up there given Terunofuji's fitness, and they'll promote with anything that seems reasonable. A 12-13 promotion is not entirely unheard, even if it is a bit weak. 14 or 15 should leave no doubt. He already has two yusho and a some other solid results. His overall Makuuchi win percentage is also comparable to some recent Yokozuna.
  13. Following up on this logic, if they keep the sanyaku at minimum 7, and work in the demoted sanyaku where they can fit, you'd have Mitakeumi or Daieisho at M4e, Tamawashi at M6w, and Abi lower than that. Is that acceptable? Who knows?
  14. One thing to keep in mind is that they have at least once not promoted an 8-7 when there was a reduction in the number of sanyaku, Terutsuyoshi from M14e after Kyushu 2019. They also recently (after Natsu 2022) left Hidenoumi with an 8-7 in Juryo at the same rank, and clearly the ordinal rank of Juryo rikishi hasn't changed anytime soon, unless you count the first banzuke Hakuho was not on as a rikishi, which isn't really relevant to this. In that case, it was 9-6 J3w Ryuden who took J1e over 8-7 J1w Hidenoumi, when there really was no reason that they couldn't have been swapped. So clearly they can decide not to promote an 8-7, which makes it all the weirder that they didn't take that tack after Hatsu 2022 when Onosho was screwed over in order to get the necessary promotions for Ura, Ichinojo, and Tamawashi. In thinking about it now, I think there might be a sense that an 8-7 in the joi definitely deserves promotion, because you're mostly fighting rikishi ranked higher than you, and normally most joi maegashira should average a 6-9 (though current times are not all that normal). Also, at that point in time the sanyaku was expanding, so their ordinal rank didn't actually change and it was a promotion in name only, which would have made a standstill in name a demotion by ordinal numbering. However, an 8-7 from J1 is probably the expected result, as they face mostly rikishi ranked lower than them, so it's more reasonable to not promote them. The shrinking sanyaku for Terutsuyoshi explains why it's possible there even though at M14 he'd also have face rikishi above him more than below him (end of the division was M16e). So that's something to keep in mind. If they shrink the sanyaku too much, they'll clearly need to hold 8-7 steady in most of the top half of the maegashira. Not promoting a 9-6 would also be awful, even with a huge sanyaku shrink, but half-rank promotions aren't out of the question there, especially if 8-7s are held steady. Likewise, if they do that with 9-6s, you might find a 10-5 to only get a 2 step promotion. And going by that logic, perhaps a 12-3 can be reasonably given a 4 step promotion, as daft as it may seem. There's either going to be a lot of sanyaku or some very poor promotions. One of those costs the Kyokai more money than the other, the other has a reasonable amount of precedent, even if not as nasty as may be required after this basho.
  15. The first instance that I remember of them not reordering Sekiwake was after Natsu 2014. At the time, the speculation was that Goeido had more wins in the last two tournaments, and thus was "closer" to Ozeki than Tochiozan (and in fact was promoted the next tournament). However, when the the trio of Sekiwake after Haru 2017 were not reordered, it was clear that they simply weren't reordering them. In that basho, you see Takayasu not moved to the east despite 4 more wins than Tamawashi. Mitakeumi then was moved over to the east after his first yusho (13-2), past 8-7 Ichinojo, but 13-2 Y Tamawashi was not moved past 11-4 Takakeisho after Hatsu 2019. I thought there were more occurrences than this, but that's apparently all the data we have. If we extrapolate from after Haru 2017, we would expect the Sekiwake to not change order when Takayasu had an even better record than Hoshoryu does now, against the same score from the east Sekiwake.