Gurowake

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Gurowake last won the day on July 22

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About Gurowake

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  1. Gurowake

    Sansho for Aki 2018

    Not even any conditional ones? Well, it's not like anyone really really deserved one, so I can't blame them. I'd thought Takakeisho would at least get a conditional one for running the table on everyone ranked Ichinojo or below, plus beating Tochinoshin. First time KK as a sanyaku I wouldn't put up to much, given he had an 11-4 at M1 that looks far more impressive, plus he had a 10-5 at M3w last time that's probably roughly equivalent to this basho if you ignore the actual opponents, and that didn't get him anything. However, taking into consideration that he had to face 8 sanyaku who got KKs, 5 of which were double digits, I'd say a 9-6 is good enough for someone that's never been an Ozeki candidate, especially when there's no one else to give one to. Obviously some of the committee agreed, but not enough of them. Yoshikaze was well underranked and an 11-4 from where he was at is not all that much higher than expectations (although the same can be said for Takakeisho, really). While Kyokutenho got an age-sympathetic sansho near the end of his career for 10 wins having just turned 40 years old, Yoshikaze isn't nearly that old yet. Everyone else, well, they just didn't stand out at all.
  2. Gurowake

    RotoSumo Banzuke Kyushu 2018

    Ozeki Norizo and Gurowake get comfortable KKs to maintain their status but don't look to move on to Yokozuna. Shin-Ozeki Ganzhonesushi finished in the bottom half of Makuuchi and will be kadoban next basho. There were a lot of 10+ win scores, but none of them came from the Sekiwake. Flohru and Senkoho, the latter just barely, manage to hang on to their rank, while they are joined by former Komusubi Pandaazuma and high scoring joi maegashira Andoreasu, Tenshinhan, and Torafuji. The first three easily met the criteria for promotion this high, but Torafuji just barely got in due to the increasing difficulty of promotion to Sekiwake when there already are plenty of Ozeki and Sekiwake. The 9 such players at those ranks are a record since I've been running this banzuke. All 6 Sekiwake on this banzuke have had 20 wins or more over the last 2 tournaments and KKs in both, so all of them need only 10 wins next basho for promotion to Ozeki. With 9 O+S and a minimum 2 Komusubi needed, an extremely good score was needed to warrant any additional Komusubi spots. While there were many scores worthy of Komusubi status, none were impressive enough to cause an additional spot to be included once the mandatory 2 were filled. Konosato returns to the rank with a small KK and Frinkanohana moves up from just outside the joi maegashira with the best rank/record combination of maegashira outside of those promoted to Sekiwake. There was quite a logjam at the top of Juryo with several players needing to be near the top of the division based on getting KKs at those ranks despite being by the numbers worse than KĊrinokoishi who should have been promoted past them, but there was no room. Similarly, Andonishiki suffered a larger demotion than normal and deserved to be ahead of KĊrinokoishi, leading to the latter getting a very weak promotion despite the rank/record combination. My apologies, but that's banzuke luck.
  3. Gurowake

    RotoSumo Results Aki 2018

    Yusho goes to Kishikaisei with a score of 1435. Makuuchi Median = 1240 -> Step Size = 26 Juryo Median = 1195 -> Step size = 32 Makushita Median = 1265, higher than Juryo (and even Makuuchi!) so Juryo Median and Step size used
  4. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2018

    Yeah, the maegashira joi ranks are going to get some really lucky promotees into them. There's simply no one to put there except for low ranking KKs. How lenient they are with Tamawashi and Shodai are the major questions, as they both could conceivably end up back in the top 16 if they really don't want to bring up Ryuden and Takanoiwa. It's not until you get to Asanoyama at M5w 7-8, who may well remain there, do things get back to normal with plenty of MKs to fill in the slots.
  5. Gurowake

    Aki Basho 2018 Discussion [SPOILERS]

    http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&amp;group_by=basho&amp;having=5&amp;day=15&amp;rank1=M1-m4&amp;wins1=<5&amp;winsopt1=1 Times there have been at least 5 rikishi in M1-m4 with 4 or fewer wins going into Day 15. Hopefully you can see how to change the query based on whatever you're looking for similar to that. edit: I just randomly picked a query that highlighted something similar to what you asked for without going back and reading it because it was on a different page, and somehow I picked exactly the query you were looking for. I swear that was not my intention at all!
  6. Gurowake

    Kensho Aki 2018

    He has a lot of fixed kensho on him from his fiancee's sponsor.
  7. Gurowake

    Aki Basho 2018 Discussion [SPOILERS]

    The terrible joi maegashira records are to expected when the top 5 have averaged more than 11 wins in 14 days, 3 other sanyaku have KKs, and one has 7 wins. By my counting the wins minus the losses in sanyaku are 40, so that needs to be how many losses minus wins the joi maegashira have in those matches. They don't have quite that poor of records because the joi maegashira have had winning records against non-joi maegashira.
  8. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2018

    Well, after Nagoya 2014 there was Chiyotairyu over Terunofuji, which would have been the debut of either of them at Komusubi. Terunofuji though only had one sanyaku opponent, while Myogiryu will have had 3. Myogiryu is also a former sekiwake and Hokutofuji would be making his sanyaku debut. So I think there's enough to say that Hokutofuji isn't going to get the nod in the 1/4 chance that it happens to begin with, but it's not like they haven't given it to the lower-ranking and better-scoring rikishi in the recent past. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201407#M
  9. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2018

    4-3 Ms2e is a LOT different than a 4-3 Ms5w. (Damn, Rocks already quoted the error I fixed :( )
  10. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2018

    Promotion queue Juryo -> Makuuchi Arawashi with a win Daiamami, Meisei Yago with a win -Nominal Promotion criteria line- Yago with a loss Daishoho with a win, Kotoeko with a win -One win short of nominal promotion line- Kotoeko with a loss, Tokushoryu with a win Demotion queue Makuuchi -> Juryo: Ishiura, Kyokutaisei Kotoyuki with a loss -One win short of nominal demotion line- Chiyomaru with a loss Kotoyuki with a win -Nominal Demotion Criteria line- Onosho with a loss, Chiyomaru with a win Only matches between these are Ishiura-Onosho and Meisei-Tokushoryu, which really don't matter at all. Daiamami and Meisei seem to be clear swaps for Ishiura and Kyokutaisei. Someone else will go down if Arawashi wins, but it might be Chiyomaru or Kotoyuki. There are other possibilities based on Yago winning also. If Arawashi wins as well, Yago would be the one squeezed out if there's only 3 demotion candidates as Chiyomaru seems high enough to avoid over-demotion. If there's a 7-8 Kotoyuki vs. a 8-7 Yago, I'd guess Kotoyuki stays, but wouldn't bet the farm on it.
  11. I think the points during the year aren't nearly as important as the points from the finishing position of the torch. At least, that's what it seems to me. It's possible to end up with the closest rikishi and rank pick combination without ever scoring a point during a basho simply by correctly guessing what rank the torch will be near and who will be in that rank. If you get those 20 points, it might be enough. Enough for a good showing at least. Obviously in order to get the 25 each for being exactly right you need to score at least 3 points during the basho.
  12. Gurowake

    Aki Basho 2018 Discussion [SPOILERS]

    One tournament a few years ago, after the main vote, they realized they might be giving out zero sansho since they were all conditional and none of the rikishi faced each other. So they went back and determined which of the opponents of the conditional ones most would deserve a sansho and gave him the chance to win and get one as well. I believe it was Hatsu 2015, though I can't say for sure whether it was Tamawashi or Terunofuji who were first considered for conditional ones. I'd have to look up the forum discussion at the time. edit; Sorry, that has little to do with what I quoted because I made several leaps of topic in my mind. I was going to say that Takakeisho may get one unconditionally simply so they don't do the same dance this time of conditionally giving one to someone who hardly deserves one. Asanoyama in no way deserves one, so if they want to guarantee one, it's not by being the winner of Asanoyama-Takakeisho.
  13. Gurowake

    Aki Basho 2018 Discussion [SPOILERS]

    Yeah, there are a lot of future Ozeki who mill about in sanyaku or joi maegashira for years until the current crop are too weak to beat them enough to stop them, while they're clearly better than the rest of the maegashira who rotate in and out of the joi. The last few Ozeki have been relatively different with much shorter most recent runs at the top. Tochinoshin and Takayasu certainly had experience beforehand, but weren't fixtures like Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku, Goeido, and Kakuryu were for years before their promotion. Terunofuji of course managed to get promoted on his first run at it while he was still new to the division.
  14. Gurowake

    Aki Basho 2018 Discussion [SPOILERS]

    Well, he can't be MK any more. 8 wins is probably not enough to generate any advance buzz for an Ozeki target and so it would be probably end up being only a surprise one like Goeido's where he ends up doing better than expected. 9 wins, well, that's what he had two tournaments ago, so maybe they could just set a target of 11 again, although 13-9-11 is pretty weak as Ozeki runs go, with strongest result being the oldest and not having 10+ all three basho. 9-13-11 looks far better with 2 11+ tournaments back-to-back.
  15. Gurowake

    Aki Basho 2018 Discussion [SPOILERS]

    You're looking at the wrong torikumi. Ryuden faces Daishomaru, who is MK. Takanoiwa faces Okinoumi who is 8-6 so theoretically they could give one to the winner of that, but that's extremely far fetched.