Non-K-November basho 2020 Discussion (spoiler space)

[Seiyashi 4,074]

32 minutes ago, Reonito said:

1 hour ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Asanoyama, Terunofuji, Shodai and yes Hakuho, in addition to whoever gets those coveted M-17 slots, may not make it a flower lined stroll to the rope. 

Historically in the 6-basho era, nearly 80% of tsuna runs (starting with an Ozeki yusho) have failed; only 14 of 66 were converted into a rope.

Please indulge my curiosity - how many unique ozeki were in that 66? Was it one chap trying multiple times (like Takanohana or Kaio, famously) or a whole bunch of chaps having cracks at it and never coming close again?

[Reonito 1,389]

6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Please indulge my curiosity - how many unique ozeki were in that 66? Was it one chap trying multiple times (like Takanohana or Kaio, famously) or a whole bunch of chaps having cracks at it and never coming close again?

There were 38 unique ozeki. So 14 eventually made it, and 24 never did. 

[Reonito 1,389]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

So 14 eventually made it, and 24 never did. 

That's actually not quite right. There were 27 yokozuna promotions in this time span, so 13 of them came without back-to-back yusho. I haven't worked out the overlap between these 13 and the 24 who failed to get it after a yusho. Such "lenient" promotions used to be quite common, but were halted after the Futahaguro debacle, and only returned for the two most recent yokozuna, Kakuryu and Kisenosato.

[Reonito 1,389]

If we stick to the post-Futahaguro era (the last 30 years), 18 unique ozeki had a total of 38 rope runs starting with a yusho, 8 of which succeeded. None of the 10 ozeki who failed to gain promotion via this route subsequently got a softer promotion; the two who did never had such a run. I think I'm going to have to write a blog post.

[Yamanashi 3,800]

Since 2011, 38 basho have been won by Yokozuna, 9 by Ozeki, 5 by Sekiwake, 1 by Komosubi, 3 by M1-M10 and 2 by M11-M17.  4 of the Ozeki wins were by Yokozuna passing through (Harumafuji 2, Kisenosato and Kakuryu 1 each).  That leaves 4 yusho (Goeido, Kotoshogiku, Baruto, Harumafuji) not followed up, and Takakeisho.  The word is that he will get promoted with a "good" yusho, as seems fair since he doesn't have the track record that Kakuryu and Kisenosato had.  But IMHO most yusho won by non-Yokozuna in the last three years have been won because Hakuho wasn't there at the end.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

12 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Since 2011, 38 basho have been won by Yokozuna, 9 by Ozeki, 5 by Sekiwake, 1 by Komosubi, 3 by M1-M10 and 2 by M11-M17.  4 of the Ozeki wins were by Yokozuna passing through (Harumafuji 2, Kisenosato and Kakuryu 1 each).  That leaves 4 yusho (Goeido, Kotoshogiku, Baruto, Harumafuji) not followed up, and Takakeisho.  The word is that he will get promoted with a "good" yusho, as seems fair since he doesn't have the track record that Kakuryu and Kisenosato had.  But IMHO most yusho won by non-Yokozuna in the last three years have been won because Hakuho wasn't there at the end.

If he wins and beats Hakuho in the process he's definitely promoted. If he reaches a playoff with Hakuho he's probably also promoted. But if the decider is the regulation bout with Hakuho, and he loses, is that still considered an equivalent performance?

[Reonito 1,389]

14 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

If he wins and beats Hakuho in the process he's definitely promoted. If he reaches a playoff with Hakuho he's probably also promoted. But if the decider is the regulation bout with Hakuho, and he loses, is that still considered an equivalent performance?

At least since Futahaguro, the two "non-standard" promotions both came after a yusho. Before that yusho, Kakuryu had a 14-1 playoff loss, while Kisenosato had a 12-3 jun-yusho which followed a string of strong runner-up finishes. I'm guessing in Takakeisho's case, they mean it when they say it'll take a yusho, although I believe @Asashosakari wrote that he thinks any 13-2 finish will do.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

Somehow, if he goes 13-2, I can see the NSK using the same "way he lost" excuse that they used the last time to deny him promotion to ozeki for one basho.

[Reonito 1,389]

IMHO that would be the correct call. Yokozuna promotions should leave no doubt.

Edited November 27, 2020 by Reonito

[Yamanashi 3,800]

From Tamanoumi to Hokutoumi, the two-basho rule wasn't operative.  Psot-Futahaguro, the next 9 Yokozuna had 2 straight Yusho before promotion.  Kakuryu and Kisenosato did not.  However, Takakeisho should get promoted with any kind of a Yusho.

Incidentally, since Kashiwado, 8 Ozeki have been promoted w/o a final Yusho, but none since Hokutoumi.

[Reonito 1,389]

1 minute ago, Yamanashi said:

However, Takakeisho should get promoted with any kind of a Yusho.

As long as it's not a fluke 11-4,  which has only happened 3 times since they went to 15 bouts.

[Yamanashi 3,800]

14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

As long as it's not a fluke 11-4,  which has only happened 3 times since they went to 15 bouts.

I can't imagine that 11-4 would be a "fluke" Yusho, but we will see.

Hakuho will probably enter with the goal of zensho yusho just to rub it in.  If he fails, will he continue anyway?  I think so, for the yusho.

Kakuryu can sit out, and he'll probably be told to get ten wins next basho or retire.  He might want to try his luck this time.

Shodai and Asanoyama are kadoban.  They'll be desperate to keep their rank.

Terunofuji wants to win and get back to Ozeki, at least.

I'm sure at least three other rikishi think they have a shot at a yusho if they remain cool and everyone else freaks out.

Based on all the above, how many henka will desperate men try?  How many will win at the bales rather than just stepping out under pressure?

Granted, someone may end up going 15-0, but winning with 11-4 may turn out to be a truly heroic effort.

[Reonito 1,389]

27 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Kakuryu can sit out

That's not how I or most observers have read the YDC warning.

[Yamanashi 3,800]

57 minutes ago, Reonito said:

That's not how I or most observers have read the YDC warning.

Then he can't; it makes my point stronger.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

8 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Granted, someone may end up going 15-0, but winning with 11-4 may turn out to be a truly heroic effort.

In that sense a 11-4 will be the best outcome for everyone involved (except Takakeisho 's rope run) but somehow I see more storylines crashing and burning during the basho. The joi is good enough that the sanyaku are going to have a hard time of it without even taking each other into account. 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

14 hours ago, Reonito said:

As long as it's not a fluke 11-4,  which has only happened 3 times since they went to 15 bouts.

This was suggested elsewhere and I’m not so sure. I think it will depend how it happens. An 11-4 which came after a playoff featuring the other Ozeki and/or the Yokozuna would probably impress enough. Holding your own in a playoff like that would be worthy of the nod. But an 11-4 in regulation bouts – highly unlikely as they try to fix the schedule to avoid such outcomes – with the sanyaku dropping out along the way probably wouldn’t be.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

32 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

An 11-4 which came after a playoff featuring the other Ozeki and/or the Yokozuna would probably impress enough.

I say it'll take at least 2 if not 3 other Y/O in that playoff, with the added implication that the sanyaku are all trading wins - an extremely unlikely scenario (but then again, so is an 11-4). Only one other Y/O in a 11-4 playoff is just sad, and unless something goes really wrong it's probably going to be Hakuho.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Asashosakari 19,138]

On 26/11/2020 at 10:59, Seiyashi said:

That said, with pure oshi-zumo, you might have a natural limit on your career that is shorter than yotsu practitioners, since other than hatakikomi, there's fewer ways to win in oshi-zumo without overpowering your opponent compared to yotsu-zumo. With oshi-zumo, once your body stops being able to generate more forward power than your opponent, you're done. So with or without injuries, Takakeisho's career will be shorter, but not necessarily by much, when he gets the rope, unless he can somehow add some non-belt throws to his repertoire. The sukuinage against Mitakeumi is a good start; kotenage and kubinage are also probably doable.

I'm fairly sure somebody as driven as Takakeisho would happily take being an ex-yokozuna at age 28 than an ex-ozeki at age 30. Flags fly forever, and all that.

 

On 26/11/2020 at 14:02, pricklypomegranate said:

Also, maybe it's just me, but I feel like he lacks charisma - his charm is more Kitanoumi than Chiyonofuji. He could easily be cast as a black hat Yokozuna.

No way. Average fans love the cannonball-type rikishi.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

3 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm fairly sure somebody as driven as Takakeisho would happily take being an ex-yokozuna at age 28 than an ex-ozeki at age 30. Flags fly forever, and all that.

Agreed, especially because it's not as if he's suddenly going to stick around 5 more years because he didn't get the rope.

[Asashosakari 19,138]

18 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Since 2011, 38 basho have been won by Yokozuna, 9 by Ozeki, 5 by Sekiwake, 1 by Komosubi, 3 by M1-M10 and 2 by M11-M17.  4 of the Ozeki wins were by Yokozuna passing through (Harumafuji 2, Kisenosato and Kakuryu 1 each).  That leaves 4 yusho (Goeido, Kotoshogiku, Baruto, Harumafuji) not followed up, and Takakeisho.  The word is that he will get promoted with a "good" yusho, as seems fair since he doesn't have the track record that Kakuryu and Kisenosato had. 

I wouldn't say Kakuryu's time at ozeki had much to recommend him for yokozuna beyond the pair of 14-1 results that got him promoted. Sure, no kadoban or even kyujo days, while Takakeisho hasn't been quite so fortunate, but to me that's basically no value added.

[Asashosakari 19,138]

18 hours ago, Reonito said:

I'm guessing in Takakeisho's case, they mean it when they say it'll take a yusho, although I believe @Asashosakari wrote that he thinks any 13-2 finish will do.

Well, not "any"; if he does the Hakuho and gets 13 wins after the yusho was already out of reach after Day 14, I doubt that would do it.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

13 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

18 hours ago, Reonito said:

I'm guessing in Takakeisho's case, they mean it when they say it'll take a yusho, although I believe @Asashosakari wrote that he thinks any 13-2 finish will do.

Well, not "any"; if he does the Hakuho and gets 13 wins after the yusho was already out of reach after Day 14, I doubt that would do it.

The question in that scenario is, if Takakeisho does an exact Hakuho when Hakuho does an Asashoryu, does that doom Takakeisho's rope run and reset it from scratch, or does it hold it over for one more strong showing in March? Kyodo's report after senshuraku in that basho implied that Hakuho's run was still alive despite only a jun-yusho.

Hakuho beats Asa, denied promotion | The Japan Times Online (archive.org)

[Asashosakari 19,138]

24 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The question in that scenario is, if Takakeisho does an exact Hakuho when Hakuho does an Asashoryu, does that doom Takakeisho's rope run and reset it from scratch, or does it hold it over for one more strong showing in March? Kyodo's report after senshuraku in that basho implied that Hakuho's run was still alive despite only a jun-yusho.

For that I would indeed say that any 13-2 would be good enough. They didn't seem to have much of a problem with considering even 12-3 jun-yusho from Kisenosato as good enough for carry-over. Ditto for Tochiazuma also back in 2006, if my memory doesn't fail me. (Not even runner-up in that case, just 12 wins.)

[Eikokurai 3,437]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

The question in that scenario is, if Takakeisho does an exact Hakuho when Hakuho does an Asashoryu, does that doom Takakeisho's rope run and reset it from scratch, or does it hold it over for one more strong showing in March? Kyodo's report after senshuraku in that basho implied that Hakuho's run was still alive despite only a jun-yusho.

Hakuho beats Asa, denied promotion | The Japan Times Online (archive.org)

I don’t think a 13-2 or even 12-3 non-yusho record in January would hurt him and reset his run. If sandwiched between two yusho, or between the yusho and a JY-D in March, that’s a quite promotable streak. Whether a Y-JY-JY run would be enough, I’m less certain. I guess that would depend on the strength of the JYs and whether he was truly in the race (as with the Hakuho 2006 case). 14-1, second to a Y/O zensho, is arguably as good as or even better than, a 13-2 yusho without Y/O competition, as was the case this November.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Yamanashi 3,800]

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Ditto for Tochiazuma also back in 2006, if my memory doesn't fail me. (Not even runner-up in that case, just 12 wins.)

He went kyujo, 2-2-11 the basho before his 2006 Yusho.  You may be thinking of his second, 13-2 Yusho, which was preceded by a 10-5.