Reonito

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About Reonito

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  1. Reonito

    Future prospects to keep an eye on

    I tried to work it out and have him at Ms5w; I don' think there's a better candidate to knock him out of the top 10.
  2. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Given today's results, and not worrying about the order, I think the top 10 will be: Asanoyama, Chiyoarashi, Kotoyusho, Nishikawa, Kanno, Dewanoryu, Tsushimanada, Hokuseiho, Fukai and Oshoma. Asanoyama wont fight of course, but it should be a very competitive promotion battle in March.
  3. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Oh, there's no question that Chiyoarashi gets demoted ahead of Kotoyusho since they have the same score and Chiyoarashi is 13w. The only question is whether it's neither, just Chiyoarashi, or both. Im pretty sure it'll be both (see a couple of posts above).
  4. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Yeah I just made my first draft and oh boy
  5. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Didn't I say that before this tournament?
  6. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Having done a bit of research, I'm pretty sure Kotoyusho is going down and Tochimaru is coming up. 6-9 at J13 isn't borderline, and they only stay up when there's no one eligible to go up in the promotion zone. See this banzuke for a direct case.
  7. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    So to add some numbers here, a 4-3 Ms3e has been promoted >50% of the time in recent years; a 4-3 Ms4w <50%. A 6-9 J13e surviving is unusual but not unprecedented, while a 6-9 J13w hasn't survived since 2000. Personally, I'd go with Tochimaru over Kotoyusho, but it's a close call. We'll find out soon, unlike the rest of the banzuke.
  8. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Yeah, that's what Gurowake is arguing
  9. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    I'd say there's a fairness argument that both J13's with a 6-9 should go down, which would have Tochimaru replacing Kotoyusho. The equivalent argument is that neither should go down, but keeping Chiyoarashi over Takakento seems more against precedent.
  10. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    1. Abi with a win. 2. winner of Onosho vs. Wakatakakage. 3. Hoshoryu with a win.
  11. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    I'm starting to rough out the next makushita joi. So far I've got Asanoyama, Chiyoarashi, Tochimaru (or whomever he pushes down), Kairyu if he wins (or whomever he pushes down). So that leaves either 6 or 7 openings. Nishikawa (7-0), Kanno (Ms9, 6-1) and Dewanoryu (Ms6, 4-3) will take three of them. Tsushimanada (Ms11, 5-2) should take another. That leaves 2 or 3 slots for Ms12w Hokuseiho (5-2) and Ms8 Fukai (4-2) and Ms12e Oshoma (4-2), who are matched up tomorrow. If Kairyu loses, all 3 should get in. If Kairyu wins, a Fukai win gives the two slots to him and Hokuseiho. I think an Oshoma win would still leave Fukai ahead of Hokuseiho, who could end up at Ms6e with the "wrong" set of results. Does this make sense?
  12. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Kotokuzan-Tsurugisho
  13. Reonito

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    I feel like Ichinojo still has an outside chance to sneak in if there are 4 slots and everyone ahead of him loses, as they might not take into account east vs. west when comparing him to Hoshoryu