Non-K-November basho 2020 Discussion (spoiler space)

[Seiyashi 4,074]

4 minutes ago, Bombur said:

That would mean we would have had a more glorious Kotoshogiku with a few great years at the cost of being deprived from his later less succesful years, which actually seems like a great deal to me (though yeah, you're right and it indeed shortens his career).

Someone probably has the data to do a breakpoint calculation somewhere, but basically if you have a really short yokozuna career, it's almost not worth it compared to a longer ozeki/maegashira career where you can continue not just to draw a salary, but also receive mochikyukin bonuses and collect kensho, which really stack up over long careers. But as yokozuna, you almost always get your hands on an elder stock on top of having 5 years grace; I recall the base salary for an oyakata is actually better than the base salary for a yokozuna (although without all the bonuses, so an oyakata makes and receives less on a net basis than a rikishi).

But as you've noted, yokozuna can take quite a lot of time off; Takakeisho and Chiganoura (soon to be Tokiwayama)'s approaches to injury give me hope that Takakeisho will sensibly manage any injury if he does get the rope. 

[Bombur 50]

Well, I wasn't approaching it on a financial/pragmatic angle, I was rather considering the pure sport/legacy side; you might very well be right on that aspect.

[Marcus33 10]

14 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Akua and Tobizaru may be new to makuuchi, but they are late bloomers. Their part in the future of sumo will be limited by age.

But yeah, I'm not worried for the future. Kotoshoho and Hoshoryu both have bags of unrefined talent already; they're only going to get better. 

I believe all 3 current ozeki have it in them to get the rope if the cards fall in their favour, but only Asanoyama is likely to have any longevity. Takakeisho is injury prone, so he will shorten his career if he gets it in January, and Shodai is already one of the oldest ozeki promotions.

Never say never and all that, but at the moment I don't envisage any of the younger rikishi overtaking these 3 ozeki and beating them to the rope. 

I do wonder if Takakeisho has, in the back of his mind, an idea that perhaps it is not such a good idea to attain Yokozuna at this time. Sure, he gets the glory now, bot loses the option to drop down the ranks and come back later.

[Yamanashi 3,820]

2 hours ago, Marcus33 said:

I do wonder if Takakeisho has, in the back of his mind, an idea that perhaps it is not such a good idea to attain Yokozuna at this time. Sure, he gets the glory now, bot loses the option to drop down the ranks and come back later.

Based on everything everybody told me when I first started following Sumo, if you're wondering whether now is a good time to go for Yokozuna, your never going to be a good Yokozuna if you make it.

[rhyen 1,833]

5 hours ago, Marcus33 said:

I do wonder if Takakeisho has, in the back of his mind, an idea that perhaps it is not such a good idea to attain Yokozuna at this time. Sure, he gets the glory now, bot loses the option to drop down the ranks and come back later.

Nah, he will go for it since he knows that they NSK & YDC will protect him over the two aging Yokozuna.

[RabidJohn 1,754]

Btw, when I suggest getting the rope would shorten Takakeisho's career, I'm not suggesting anything as short as Kisenosato's yokozuna career.

Kisenosato's retirement was mainly due to the catastrophic mismanagement of his detached pectoral injury (which with hindsight may have come about because he'd never been injured before).

I've no doubt Takakeisho will do his utmost to win in January, even if it means an eventual pre-30 retirement (as opposed to a post-30 slide down the banzuke).

[Seiyashi 4,074]

53 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Btw, when I suggest getting the rope would shorten Takakeisho's career, I'm not suggesting anything as short as Kisenosato's yokozuna career.

Kisenosato's retirement was mainly due to the catastrophic mismanagement of his detached pectoral injury (which with hindsight may have come about because he'd never been injured before).

I've no doubt Takakeisho will do his utmost to win in January, even if it means an eventual pre-30 retirement (as opposed to a post-30 slide down the banzuke).

Agreed.

That said, with pure oshi-zumo, you might have a natural limit on your career that is shorter than yotsu practitioners, since other than hatakikomi, there's fewer ways to win in oshi-zumo without overpowering your opponent compared to yotsu-zumo. With oshi-zumo, once your body stops being able to generate more forward power than your opponent, you're done. So with or without injuries, Takakeisho's career will be shorter, but not necessarily by much, when he gets the rope, unless he can somehow add some non-belt throws to his repertoire. The sukuinage against Mitakeumi is a good start; kotenage and kubinage are also probably doable.

[pricklypomegranate 730]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Agreed.

That said, with pure oshi-zumo, you might have a natural limit on your career that is shorter than yotsu practitioners, since other than hatakikomi, there's fewer ways to win in oshi-zumo without overpowering your opponent compared to yotsu-zumo. With oshi-zumo, once your body stops being able to generate more forward power than your opponent, you're done. So with or without injuries, Takakeisho's career will be shorter, but not necessarily by much, when he gets the rope, unless he can somehow add some non-belt throws to his repertoire. The sukuinage against Mitakeumi is a good start; kotenage and kubinage are also probably doable.

Also agreed. I don't think Takakeisho will have a Kisenosato length career. With Chiganoura retiring soon, Takakeisho can very well take his kabu at age 30. While some think that this is very early, I don't think Takakeisho can maintain the Yokozuna position >5 years. He''s very dependent on a narrow set, albeit subtle set of skills and his physical condition. I know his planet shaped and sized body does contribute to his sumo, but it doesn't look healthy, even by sumo standards by me. Even on the heels of his yusho, I can see ex-Yokozunas like Wakanohana and Kitanofuji disliking his dodge and pull style and the hinkaku criticism, even if the YDC or general public love him. Also, maybe it's just me, but I feel like he lacks charisma - his charm is more Kitanoumi than Chiyonofuji. He could easily be cast as a black hat Yokozuna.  Furthermore, although he won 1 yusho this year, he had a very unconvincing July basho - I would not say that that is Yokozuna sumo and I am looking for a little more consistency. Of course, as Yokozuna, he has incentive not to sit through the 15 days, so I do foresee many kyujo in the future. Still, it's better than the time crunch the yotsu Ozeki have. When do you think we'll see the next dai-yokozuna (>10 yusho)? i would like to know. 

Edited November 26, 2020 by pricklypomegranate

[Seiyashi 4,074]

4 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

When do you think we'll see the next dai-yokozuna (>10 yusho)? i would like to know. 

Not with the current batch of ozeki - Asanoyama's the only one with the age and skillset to go the distance, and he has by far the worst mental game of the three of them. Takakeisho probably has 5 more good yusho in the bag at max I think, although I would love to be proven wrong (and to see him diversify his sumo). Shodai - time is working against him, and he hasn't even worn off his shin-ozeki shine yet.

Maybe amongst Naya, Kotoshoho, Hoshoryu's generation. Of the lot, Kotoshoho's sumo looks the best, but all of them have miles to go in experience and power, and it's anyone's guess how that changes in a year+. I don't expect any of them to make a sustained challenge for ozeki before 2022.

Edited November 26, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,074]

16 hours ago, Bombur said:

Well, I wasn't approaching it on a financial/pragmatic angle, I was rather considering the pure sport/legacy side; you might very well be right on that aspect.

Even from a sport/legacy side, a long ozeki career is perhaps viewed less regretfully than a short yokozuna career. The best contrast is probably Takanohana (I) Kenshi and his son, Wakanohana (III) Masaru. Takanohana was basically the gold standard for ozeki before Kaio showed up, and Wakanohana's 5 makuuchi titles in 29 tournaments would have made him the new ozeki gold standard even till now (Kaio had the same amount of titles in twice the number of tournaments). But Wakanohana never managed to win a tournament as yokozuna due to injuries, and it was remarked that had he not been promoted, he would have been remembered as a fine ozeki like his father and not a disappointing yokozuna. There is a difference in the way yokozuna and ozeki are judged; too short a yokozuna career leaves you with insufficient time to live up to those standards (but as an ozeki, you would well have exceeded those standards).

[Bombur 50]

Btw, was there no fish picture for Takakeisho this time? I can't find it anywhere  .

Edited November 26, 2020 by Bombur

[code_number3 698]

22 minutes ago, Bombur said:

Btw, was there no fish picture for Takakeisho this time? I can't find it anywhere  .

[Side note: that bell logo makes me think of Doraemon. We should know why]

Edited November 26, 2020 by code_number3

[Bombur 50]

Thanks a lot ! I don't know why it seems so seldomly shared, I could find Shodai's quite easily.

Also, Takanosho is so precious  !

Edited November 26, 2020 by Bombur

[Stelios 30]

Any idea if Terunofuji indeed got injured?

[Kashunowaka 300]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Even from a sport/legacy side, a long ozeki career is perhaps viewed less regretfully than a short yokozuna career. The best contrast is probably Takanohana (I) Kenshi and his son, Wakanohana (III) Masaru. Takanohana was basically the gold standard for ozeki before Kaio showed up, and Wakanohana's 5 makuuchi titles in 29 tournaments would have made him the new ozeki gold standard even till now (Kaio had the same amount of titles in twice the number of tournaments). But Wakanohana never managed to win a tournament as yokozuna due to injuries, and it was remarked that had he not been promoted, he would have been remembered as a fine ozeki like his father and not a disappointing yokozuna. There is a difference in the way yokozuna and ozeki are judged; too short a yokozuna career leaves you with insufficient time to live up to those standards (but as an ozeki, you would well have exceeded those standards).

To be fair, Kaio and Wakanohana each won one yusho as komusubi as part of their ozeki runs, and 4 yusho as ozeki. And it took Kaio 25 basho as ozeki to get 4 yusho while Wakanohana took 29, so Kaio didn't actually need twice the number of tournaments to get to five yusho - it's just that their paths diverged at that point. Their careers could so easily have been reversed, and were ultimately decided by a couple of 12-3 results. If Wakanohana's 12-3 in Natsu 1998 had been good for the usual jun-yusho or third place, he might have spent 7 more years as ozeki going 8-7. And if Kaio hadn't tumbled to his third loss on day 12 in Kyushu 2004 against Miyabiyama, he might have been promoted at age 32 and would in all likelihood have been a short-lived yokozuna.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

24 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

To be fair, Kaio and Wakanohana each won one yusho as komusubi as part of their ozeki runs, and 4 yusho as ozeki. And it took Kaio 25 basho as ozeki to get 4 yusho while Wakanohana took 29, so Kaio didn't actually need twice the number of tournaments to get to five yusho - it's just that their paths diverged at that point. Their careers could so easily have been reversed, and were ultimately decided by a couple of 12-3 results. If Wakanohana's 12-3 in Natsu 1998 had been good for the usual jun-yusho or third place, he might have spent 7 more years as ozeki going 8-7. And if Kaio hadn't tumbled to his third loss on day 12 in Kyushu 2004 against Miyabiyama, he might have been promoted at age 32 and would in all likelihood have been a short-lived yokozuna.

Eminently correct. The striking similarity in their careers and yet the drastic difference in historical evaluation just goes to prove the original point even harder - the rope is a major curse if you can't inhabit it long enough. 

[Marcus33 10]

23 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Based on everything everybody told me when I first started following Sumo, if you're wondering whether now is a good time to go for Yokozuna, your never going to be a good Yokozuna if you make it.

I like Takakeisho, but I have a hard time seeing him as a good yokozuna. He is too much of a one trick pony, he'll never be good on the belt with those short arms.

[RabidJohn 1,754]

5 hours ago, Marcus33 said:

I like Takakeisho, but I have a hard time seeing him as a good yokozuna. He is too much of a one trick pony, he'll never be good on the belt with those short arms.

General concensus of opinion was that he would never cut it in sanyaku, then that he would never make ozeki for exactly the same reasons.

He keeps proving everybody wrong, a point he alluded to in one of his post-yusho interviews. 

He doesn't have to be a 'good' yokozuna. Simply getting the rope will have proved everybody wrong - again.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

26 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

6 hours ago, Marcus33 said:

I like Takakeisho, but I have a hard time seeing him as a good yokozuna. He is too much of a one trick pony, he'll never be good on the belt with those short arms.

General concensus of opinion was that he would never cut it in sanyaku, then that he would never make ozeki for exactly the same reasons.

He keeps proving everybody wrong, a point he alluded to in one of his post-yusho interviews. 

He doesn't have to be a 'good' yokozuna. Simply getting the rope will have proved everybody wrong - again.

He also doesn't need to be good strictly on the belt to diversify his repertoire. There are plenty of "yotsu" kimarite that don't involve mawashi holds - kubinage, kotenage, sukuinage, tottari (pulled off against an arguably-diminished Kisenosato). And he has dabbled with attempts at proper belt sumo - his demotion-causing injury in Natsu last year was due to a yorikiri against Mitakeumi. And if he can be good enough to prevent mawashi grips on him, then it's also a moot point; it's arguable that he's already at that level. 

He might just end up being the Akebono of oshizumo. Akebono broke the gaijin barrier for yokozuna; Takakeisho might well break the oshi-zumo barrier for yokozuna. How long his yokozuna career may be is one for the history books, but if he ever makes it to yokozuna, that in and of itself is noteworthy. Besides, any yokozuna immediately following the Hakuho era is going to look a bit dim by comparison. If he can get the rope and win 2-3 more basho after that he's still really made it in my books. He will be fighting against limits that yotsu-zumo rikishi don't have, but given the strength of his mental game and the relatively good sense that prevails in his heya about injury rehabilitation, he is probably the best rikishi to push those limits to their maximum.

Edited November 27, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Jakusotsu 5,904]

42 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Akebono broke the gaijin barrier for yokozuna; Takakeisho might well break the oshi-zumo barrier for yokozuna.

Didn't Akebono break both? (If there ever was such a thing as an "oshi-zumo barrier" at all...)

[Seiyashi 4,074]

18 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Didn't Akebono break both? (If there ever was such a thing as an "oshi-zumo barrier" at all...)

I was under the impression that Akebono was more of a well-rounded fighter by the time he got the rope, otherwise Takakeisho would be compared a lot more to him and there wouldn't be talk about a pure oshi rikishi being unsuited for the rope.

EDIT: indeed, his first few yokozuna tournaments, while still dominated by oshi techniques, had a few scatterings of uwatenage and sukuinage - definitely noticeably more than Takakeisho. 

Edited November 27, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Jakusotsu 5,904]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I was under the impression that Akebono was more of a well-rounded fighter by the time he got the rope, otherwise Takakeisho would be compared a lot more to him and there wouldn't be talk about a pure oshi rikishi being unsuited for the rope.

That's not apples and oranges but pumpkins and peas.

[ryafuji 814]

Hokutoumi was an oshi-sumo yokozuna well before Akebono. Takakeisho wouldn't be breaking any barriers on that front. 

[Kaminariyuki 499]

On 26/11/2020 at 02:03, RabidJohn said:

I've no doubt Takakeisho will do his utmost to win in January, even if it means an eventual pre-30 retirement (as opposed to a post-30 slide down the banzuke).

Indeed, he wouldn't have made ozeki if he weren't the type to go for it.

Asanoyama, Terunofuji, Shodai and yes Hakuho, in addition to whoever gets those coveted M-17 slots, may not make it a flower lined stroll to the rope. 

[Reonito 1,408]

34 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Asanoyama, Terunofuji, Shodai and yes Hakuho, in addition to whoever gets those coveted M-17 slots, may not make it a flower lined stroll to the rope. 

Historically in the 6-basho era, nearly 80% of tsuna runs (starting with an Ozeki yusho) have failed; only 14 of 66 were converted into a rope.