Asashosakari

I don't believe it was mentioned yet that the NSK release specifically says that tickets are planned to be put on sale in the second half of January, rather than the more generic "early 2025" put up by the Royal Albert Hall.

On a totally different matter - does anyone recall the extent of Channel 4's TV coverage back then?

I suppose we need to cut the Royal Albert Hall people some slack... Even the Japanese embassy was pushing this bogus line, weeks ago. From Facebook:

This part of the BBC article at least strongly implied that the London event would be the same thing as the six honbasho by referring to both as capital-T "Tournament": Whether the actual James Ainscough comment during the press conference made the same implication as this paraphrased version, who knows.

BTW, I wonder what that's going to do to next year's autumn tour back home. With travel days included, I guess we're looking at 9+ days break in the domestic jungyo schedule. Incidentally, somebody pointed out elsewhere that the koen may coincide with one of the NFL's annual London games. I suppose hotels are going to be expensive no matter what, but if so that's probably not going to be great for availability/cost for Friday onward.

I just have to ask: Were your colleagues previously aware that you're the resident go-to guy for sumo information? Many thanks for putting in what's undoubtedly going to be hard work to keep the story straight over the next 10 months.

The game page shows the Kyushu deadline (and reads "Aki").

Maegashira yusho used to be a near-automatic promotion to sanyaku, so it would have been difficult to amass further wins as maegashira. That left only theoretical runs where the yusho caps off the three tournaments, which in turn would have been difficult because 20+ wins beforehand almost always mean a rank in the joi-jin for the third basho.

Classic 50/50 decision.

Banzuke guesses: Sadanoumi (M12w 4-11) J1 Shiden (J6w 10-5) Ryuden (M13e 4-11) J2 Kayo (J3w 8-7) Asakoryu (M17e 6-9) J3 Tsurugisho (J7w 10-5) Shishi (M16e 5-10) J4 Shirokuma (J3e 7-8) Shimanoumi (J4w 7-8) J5 Aonishiki (J11e 10-5) Hidenoumi (J7e 8-7) J6 Tomokaze (J5w 7-8) Tochitaikai (J12w 10-5) J7 Fujiseiun (J10w 9-6) Bushozan (M17w 3-8-4) J8 Daiseizan (J12e 9-6) Mitoryu (J8e 7-8) J9 Oshoumi (J14w 10-3-2) Shimazuumi (J5e 5-10) J10 Hakuyozan (J8w 6-9) Daiamami (J9e 6-9) J11 Tohakuryu (J6e 4-9-2) Hatsuyama (Ms1w 5-2) J12 Kiryuko (Ms2e 5-2) Wakaikari (J13e 7-8) J13 Kotoeiho (J13w 7-8) Nabatame (J14e 7-8) J14 Daishoho (J9w 4-11) Nearly identical to Gurowake's, just half-rank flips for Sadanoumi/Shiden and Kayo/Asakoryu. Wakanosho (Ms7w 6-1) Ms1 Kotokuzan (Ms4e 4-3) Kazekeno (Ms6e 5-2) Ms2 Akua (Ms5e 4-3) Kusano (Ms7e 4-3) Ms3 Hitoshi (Ms12e 5-2) Osanai (Ms48w 7-0 Y) Ms4 Miyagi (Ms2w 3-4) Tochimaru (Ms20e 6-1) Ms5 Otsuji (Ms14e 5-2) Onosho (J10e 2-11-2) Ms6 Ishizaki (Ms22e 6-1) Nishinoryu (Ms15w 5-2) Ms7 Kaiseijo (Ms11e 4-3) Matsui (Ms17e 5-2) Ms8 Tenshoho (Ms12w 4-3) Asahakuryu (Ms5w 3-4) Ms9 Kamito (Ms3e 3-5) Chiyomaru (J11w 1-14) Ms10 Takakento (Ms14w 4-3) Kurohimeyama (Ms6w 3-4) Ms11 Kaisho (Ms3w 2-5) Hokutomaru (Ms31w 6-1) Ms12 Obara (Ms4w 2-5) Toseiryu (Ms16e 4-3) Ms13 Nihonyanagi (Ms16w 4-3) Yuma (Ms22w 5-2) Ms14 Tosamidori (Ms23e 5-2) Fujitoshi (Sd18w 7-0 Y) Ms15 Kyokukaiyu (Ms8e 3-4) I don't expect much of this to be completely accurate, and I'll be happy if at least the internal orders of the KKs and the MKs are correct. Hitoshi in front of Miyagi feels like a reach - my impression is that 5-2 over a very high-ranked 3-4 is generally worth at most 9 ranks - but between those two and Osanai, it's Hitoshi who looks like the most appropriate candidate for Ms3w to me. Onosho outside the top 5 is essentially a combined "he didn't complete the basho" + "is he even going to show up?" penalty. Ms6e is probably as low as he can conceivably go, the high end might well be Ms3e if they're feeling very generous instead. The latter might make the Chiyomaru placement look odd in comparison though, as there's much less reason to be lenient with him with the way the ranks start crowding up after Ms6. I've not projected much of a bonus for Kamito's 8th match win there, but as that's always a crapshoot I'm not worrying about it too much. Somewhat connected to that: The Kaisho-to-Nihonyanagi block keeps making me wonder if I've been much too lenient with the two 2-5's. Two more rikishi had rank/record combinations that end up in the top 15 more often than not: Yoshii (Ms10e 3-4) Kotokenryu (Ms19w 4-3) Kotokenryu could conceivably take Kyokukaiyu's place, but I went with the 3-4 up there because the 4-3 promotions are necessarily small in general in that area this time, so there's no compelling reason to treat Kotokenryu to anything higher than Ms16e. That's 10 promotions into the top 15 ranks (11 if Kotokenryu goes in), the corresponding demotions are: Yoshii (Ms10e 3-4) Satorufuji (Ms11w 3-4) Dewanoryu (Ms13e 3-4) Toshunryu (Ms8w 2-5) Kitadaichi (Ms15e 2-5) Daishomaru (Ms9e 1-6) Chiyotora (Ms10w 1-6) Asanoyama (Ms1e 0-0-7) Chiyosakae (Ms9w 0-0-7) Chiyonoo (Ms13w 0-0-7)

Hidenoumi (J9e 9-6) J6 Shiden (J7w 8-7) Tsurugisho (J5w 7-8) J7 Mitoryu (J3w 6-9) Asakoryu (J4w 6-9) J8 What were they supposed to do? At least one of them had to get an overdemotion, or this would have ended up as either: Hidenoumi (J9e 9-6) J7 Shiden (J7w 8-7) or Shiden (J7w 8-7) J7 Hidenoumi (J9e 9-6) both of which are much worse. (And Asakoryu wouldn't have avoided the overdemotion in any case...) I can't see anything unusual with Kagayaki (after 2023.11) and Kotoeko (after 2024.01) either. Both received less than standard-size demotions and all the juryo rikishi who ended up ahead of them deserved to be ahead by the numbers, too.

Day 15 - Results Apologies for the delay - I wanted to wait for potential information about the many kyujo ex-sekitori, and then got sidetracked. new KK: Kotokuzan, Akua, Tenshoho new MK: Asagyokusei, Dairaido, Yoshiazuma Totals: 14 KK, 10 MK, 5 kyujo, 90-72-41 A crucial Day 14 win for Kotokuzan who unexpectedly was paired up with another 3-3 makushita rikishi, Miyagi, even though the juryo demotion race was not yet decided at the time. Kotokuzan's kachikoshi was not quite enough to earn promotion back to the paid ranks in the end, but he'll be no lower than Ms2e on the next banzuke and have an excellent chance to do it then. Akua's last minute KK should also see him move up to Ms2w, while Kiryuko completed his Kyushu campaign in style with another victory after his return to sekitori status was already assured. Fellow top 5 ranker Kaisho ended things with a loss to finish at 2-5, and will likely fall far enough that even 5 wins in January might not guarantee an immediate return to the promotion zone. BTW, Akua is set to become the first rikishi in 3+ years to rank between Ms1 and Ms5 for five straight tournaments. In addition to him and Kotokuzan, the next top 5 will feature Kazekeno, whose basho ended on a bit of down note with two losses after his yusho-chasing 5-0 start, and probably also Hitoshi who went nearly the other way with four straight wins from 1-2. Three different final scores for the trio of injury returnees in the middle of makushita. Tochimaru streaked to a 6-1 finish and just might have also got himself into promotable territory for January, while Takakento finished 4-3 and Tochimusashi ended on a 5-2 record. On the other hand we'll be seeing big drops for Daishomaru - consolation win on Day 13 to finish 1-6, albeit against an opponent from more than 30 ranks lower - and Tsushimanada, 2-5 for a combined scoreline of 5-24 across his last three tournaments. Also not going well at all is Amakaze with his third straight 2-5 record. In better news: Kitaharima arrested his recent 1-6, 1-6 descent with a 5-2 performance. Barring inter-basho retirements, the next edition will have an additional ex-sekitori on the list, with Kiryujo departing and Onosho and Chiyomaru coming down from juryo. The movements between makushita and sandanme will balance each other: Asashiyu is set to return to the third division after his 5-2 record, while kyujo Kyokutaisei is set to drop. Speaking of which: Again no zensho record for Enho, and his loss in the yusho decider with Fujitoshi ensured that he'll indeed have to spend another tournament in sandanme. Nothing to worry about for now, though; it's just hard to be that one out of 128 rikishi who gets to finish 7-0. Meanwhile, Yoshiazuma unfortunately demonstrated that it can even be difficult to be that one out of two rikishi who finishes kachikoshi, as he completed the turnaround from 3-0 to 3-4. Fellow super-veteran Dairaido also dropped to makekoshi at the end. So, to close things out: As already alluded there has been no definitive information about any of the kyujo rikishi, including Kawazoe after his puzzling departure at 1-0. Reports have indicated that Asanoyama is likely aiming for a March comeback; we'll see if any of the others are ready for action in January. Rank Shikona Heya Record Kyushu 2024 Results Age Out Last J HiRk Ms1e Asanoyama Takasago kyujo – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 30 1 2024.09 O Ms2e Kiryuko Tatsunami 5-2 O X – – X – O – O – O – – O – 22 1 2024.09 J12 Ms3w Kaisho Asakayama 2-5 – O X – X – X – X – O – X – – 29 11 2023.01 J2 Ms4e Kotokuzan Arashio 4-3 – O O – X – X O – – X – – O – 30 10 2023.03 M16 Ms5e Akua Tatsunami 4-3 X – O – – X O – X – O – – O – 34 4 2024.03 M10 Ms6e Kazekeno Oshiogawa 5-2 O – – O O – – O O – X – – X – 25 3 2024.05 J14 Ms9e Daishomaru Oitekaze 1-6 – X X – – X – X X – X – O – – 33 15 2022.05 M5 Ms9w Chiyosakae Kokonoe kyujo – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 34 1 2024.09 J8 Ms12e Hitoshi Oitekaze 5-2 O – – X X – O – – O – O – – O 27 6 2023.11 J11 Ms12w Tenshoho Isegahama 4-3 X – X – O – X – – O – O – O – 22 5 2024.01 J10 Ms13w Chiyonoo Kokonoe kyujo – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 33 17 2022.01 M14 Ms14w Takakento Tokiwayama 4-3 – X O – – O – O – X – O X – – 28 6 2023.11 J4 Ms20e Tochimaru Kasugano 6-1 – O – X – O O – – O O – – – O 32 13 2022.09 J11 Ms21w Tsushimanada Sakaigawa 2-5 X – – O – X X – O – X – – – X 31 2 2024.07 J9 Ms22w Yuma Onomatsu 5-2 O – O – – O X – X – – O – O – 26 5 2024.01 J13 Ms27e Tochimusashi Kasugano 5-2 – X O – O – O – O – – X – – O 25 5 2024.01 J7 Ms29w Kawazoe Isegahama 1-0-6 – O – – – – – – – – – – – – – 25 7 2023.09 J13 Ms30e Asanowaka Takasago 2-5 – X X – – X – O – X O – – X – 29 13 2022.09 J4 Ms40e Kyokutaisei Oshima kyujo – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 35 18 2021.11 M8 Ms42e Nionoumi Yamahibiki 3-4 X – – O X – O – X – – X – – O 37 67 2013.07 M16 Ms42w Kitaharima Yamahibiki 5-2 – O X – O – – X O – O – – O – 38 4 2024.03 M15 Ms46e Asagyokusei Takasago 3-4 – O X – – X O – X – O – X – – 31 27 2020.03 J12 Ms60w Fujiazuma Tamanoi 5-2 X – – O O – O – O – – O X – – 37 24 2020.11 M4 Sd3w Asashiyu Takasago 5-2 O – – O X – – O O – – O X – – 30 19 2021.09 J13 Sd11w Amakaze Oshiogawa 2-5 – O – X X – – X – X O – – – X 33 39 2018.03 M13 Sd39w Yago Oshiogawa kyujo – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 30 14 2022.07 M10 Sd55e Dairaido Takadagawa 3-4 O – – X – X X – – O – O – X – 44 108 2006.07 J2 Sd56w Enho Isegahama 6-1 – O – O O – O – O – O – X – – 30 9 2023.05 M4 Jd4e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 3-4 – O – O – O – X – X – X – X – 47 60 2014.09 M12

The standings should correctly reflect the rules as laid out there. Unfortunately I long since lost access to the website that the Toto rules page is hosted on, and the game frontend was never equipped to actually show the tie-break values.

Yup. There are some interesting implications that feel very unintuitive, for example that Ms2w 4-3 would not be strong enough to force down J14e 7-8. I was rooting for Kotokuzan in his last match, but Miyagi finishing 4-3 would have been an acceptable outcome just to see that tested. (Ultimately it didn't matter because Daishoho collapsed even worse than Nabatame, and we wouldn't have got the Nabatame / Miyagi comparison anyway.)

I mean, it's essentially part of the accepted historical record that the pre-Futahaguro YDCs were very open to considering information that extended beyond the results of two tournaments, so it's somewhat pointless to look at those cases like that. Taking three consecutive tournaments as a "run" was perfectly normal, but it didn't even stop there: For the Kashiwado/Taiho double promotion, where Taiho's ascent was obviously a slam dunk case with back-to-back yusho, the YDC arguments in favour of also promoting Kashiwado essentially came down to their broadly comparable long-term success* as well as Kashiwado's specific head-to-head strength, making him "equal to Taiho". They weren't deluded enough to believe that 11-4, 12-3 D alone was any sort of promotion quality run. One may well posit that their arguments were bunk, but one shouldn't act as though they weren't made at all. * With Kashiwado having to face both incumbent yokozuna Asashio and Wakanohana, while Taiho was only required to battle Asashio under the rules of the day.