Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[Godango 956]

As someone who is terrible as GTB -- what's the consensus here now about Ochiai getting in to Juryo for Haru? Are we thinking 50/50, more likely than not, certainly? 

I suppose this could be a poll.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Godango

[Reonito 1,335]

3 minutes ago, Godango said:

As someone who is terribly as GTB -- what's the consensus here now about Ochiai getting in to Juryo for Haru? Are we thinking 50/50, more likely than not, certainly? 

I suppose this could be a poll.

I'd say almost certainly. If he doesn't make it, we'll know they have a hard-and-fast rule against promoting from Ms15TD, but the way the matches were set up on Day 15 strongly argues he's going up.

[maglor 122]

4 hours ago, Masunofuji said:

I don't know, the context looks pretty equivalent to me. I'm passing over someone with a worse record (Daishoho this basho, Osunaarashi / Tokushinho in 2013.07) in favour of someone with a better record but further down the banzuke (Asanoyama this time, Endo in 2013.07). What am I missing?

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Mitoryu gets the short end of the stick after all. I'd think he'd even prefer that, juryo is his domain.

Daishoho deserves to be 2 ranks higher than Asanoyama. Osunaarashi deserved to be 5 ranks lower than Endo. The cases are totally and completely incomparable.

[Oshirokita 173]

1 hour ago, Godango said:

As someone who is terrible as GTB -- what's the consensus here now about Ochiai getting in to Juryo for Haru? Are we thinking 50/50, more likely than not, certainly? 

I suppose this could be a poll.

I'll tell you my answer in 2 or 3 days.

 

 

Okay, I say he makes it.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

7 hours ago, Masunofuji said:

It also is just a secondary factor, the fact that Kinbozan holds a 1.5 rank advantage over Daishoho while being only 1 win behind him should suffice.

 

5 hours ago, Masunofuji said:

I don't know, the context looks pretty equivalent to me. I'm passing over someone with a worse record (Daishoho this basho, Osunaarashi / Tokushinho in 2013.07) in favour of someone with a better record but further down the banzuke (Asanoyama this time, Endo in 2013.07). What am I missing?

Your issue is that you seem to believe one win ordinarily compensates for only one rank, or even less than that.

Or maybe there's really no ranks-to-wins logic at work for you at all, considering you've argued for either Asanoyama > Kinbozan > Daishoho or Kinbozan > Asanoyama > Daishoho here.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,786]

8 hours ago, Reonito said:

8 hours ago, Gurowake said:

So you think the reason they promoted Takayasu to Sekiwake this basho is solely because they wanted to give him the shot at Ozeki, and not because they thought 4+4 was neater than 3+5?  Also, you might consider that Wakamotoharu now has 19 wins in two joi basho (he was #16 that competed last basho), so maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to give him a short at Ozeki next basho either with a Yusho.

Yes. I'm also not convinced they'll stay with 8 S/K, though of course I was spectacularly wrong about this last time. As for Ozeki Wakamotoharu, that seems extremely premature for someone who's been in the top division for a year and moved up steadily but not dominantly, and you'd have to count a 10-5 at M4. If he puts up double-digits next time, sure, bump him up to S for May and see what he can do.

I'm with Reonito here. "4+4 or 3+5" is a red herring when a conceivable - and IMHO the most likely - answer is actually "3+4". Anyway, quite possibly the decision to do 8 lower sanyaku last time was at least partly motivated by the even worse mess in the maegashira ranks with fewer than that. It's not great if they go back down to 7 this time, but it's still reasonably workable.

I'm also rooting (of sorts) for Wakamotoharu to stay at komusubi to see them have to answer this long-standing question for him and Kotonowaka:

On 30/12/2022 at 02:49, Asashosakari said:

That's why the current approach to the sekiwake rank (we haven't had a chance to see what they would do with two komusubi) is so grating.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,335]

9 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm also rooting (of sorts) for Wakamotoharu to stay at komusubi to see them have to answer this long-standing question for him and Kotonowaka:

Although it's not a perfect test, since they are K1w and K2w rather than K1e and K1w.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

4 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Although it's not a perfect test, since they are K1w and K2w rather than K1e and K1w.

Could go either way, I guess.  The open K1e could give them license either to jump Waka in front of Koto (the latter still getting a non-demotion at K1w that way), or to move both up slightly without changing the order.

[Gurowake 3,923]

56 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

and IMHO the most likely - answer is actually "3+4". Anyway, quite possibly the decision to do 8 lower sanyaku last time was at least partly motivated by the even worse mess in the maegashira ranks with fewer than that. It's not great if they go back down to 7 this time, but it's still reasonably workable.

I think the more important question regarding whether Tamawashi is promoted is how the precedents of promoting people work when they are forced to promote a M1e to an extra slot.  We've seen a few M2s with 10 wins not reach Komusubi, but the one time that one did get an extra slot, it was when a 9-6 was promoted from M1e to another extra slot.  I've viewed that as something of a degree of being fair to the other joi rikishi who might think he should be ranked above the other one that gets a free extra spot because there's no other place to promote him.  While the Hokutofuji + Asanoyama extra spots are not exactly the same as the current situation as each had one more win, the relative number of wins are the same, and this time the sanyaku is smaller, which at least in my opinion should give them leeway to promote a bit more leniently.

Similarly, they just promoted a 9-6 M2 last basho, and if they do so again it leaves the same number of sanyaku as before, so it would seem a bit strange to "change their mind" even though that was clearly more of an issue last time of picking which thing to do that they'd rather not do.  So while I don't think that's as much of a reason to expect Tamawashi's promotion, it's something that someone might bring up at the meeting.

I have a very difficult time trying to get myself away from the idea that if there's a KK M1e, any joi member with a better rank/record combination has to get promoted as well.  I know that there's no reason that my exact formulation is some hard and fast rule that they go by, seeing as we don't have a ton of data points to work with, but it just makes sense to me.  One thing that's leading me away from that sort of thinking though is that Asanoyama was ranked behind Hokutofuji when they both got extra spots, which seems to suggest that my condition is absolutely wrong, but then I have to explain why Asanoyama ended up promoted at all when we've seen 10-5 M2s not promoted since then on 3 occasions, and even once from M2e.

There also might be a bias against 5 Komusubi, as that's never happened before.  There was an instance of 5 Sekiwake, but that was caused by 2 11-4 Komusubi and 3 KK Sekiwake so there was little choice.  Even if they refuse to consider 5 Komusubi, it's unclear whether they'll promote an extra Sekiwake or not promote another Komusubi.  Last time they seemed to think their hands were tied in terms of the number of lower sanyaku, and avoiding 5 Komusubi might have been the reason of the Takayasu promotion to Sekiwake, but this time they could easily drop one or more of the sanyaku and not have as serious of a problem.

It's certainly not obvious, which means I'm going to guess wrong because I can never get my thinking in unusual situations to align with the committee's. 

 

[Kintamayama 44,354]

The Kyokai likes to give subtle extra punishments to those that have been punished. Many examples, the most recent one being Abi’s under promotion, and Oosunaarashi comes to mind. I think Asanoyama will not be promoted for that reason, and for that reason only.

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

57 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

The Kyokai likes to give subtle extra punishments to those that have been punished. Many examples, the most recent one being Abi’s under promotion, and Oosunaarashi comes to mind. I think Asanoyama will not be promoted for that reason, and for that reason only.

The big problem with that kind of punishment is making the other kids suffer, i.e. the regular Juryo rikishi.

Shonannoumi would have loved to win the yusho if it wasn't for the black fox among the chicken.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Jakusotsu

[Asashosakari 18,786]

My attempt at juryo and makushita:

Asanoyama (J12w 14-1 Y)   J1   Tohakuryu (J4e 9-6)
Chiyonokuni (J7e 10-5)    J2   Ichinojo (M7e 0-0-15)
Tochinoshin (M11w 2-3-10) J3   Shonannoumi (J13e 12-3)
Oshoma (J3w 7-8)          J4   Chiyomaru (M16w 4-11)
Enho (J4w 7-8)            J5   Roga (J9e 9-6)
Gonoyama (J10e 9-6)       J6   Daiamami (J2w 5-10)
Shimazuumi (J11w 9-6)     J7   Hidenoumi (J9w 8-7)
Akua (J1e 3-12)           J8   Tsushimanada (J14e 9-6)
Hakuyozan (J14w 9-6)      J9   Atamifuji (J3e 3-8-4)
Kotokuzan (J5w 4-11)      J10  Churanoumi (J6e 4-11)
Shimanoumi (J8e 5-10)     J11  Kitanowaka (J8w 5-10)
Takakento (J12e 7-8)      J12  Tochimusashi (J7w 4-11)
Tamashoho (Ms1e 4-3)      J13  Tomokaze (Ms2e 4-3)
Tokushoryu (Ms2w 4-3)     J14  Ochiai (Ms15Td 7-0 Y)

Terutsuyoshi (J10w 5-10)  Ms1  Chiyosakae (J11e 5-10)
Tsukahara (Ms5e 5-2)      Ms2  Fujiseiun (Ms5w 5-2)
Kaisho (J13w 5-10)        Ms3  Tokihayate (Ms6w 5-2)
Kawazoe (Ms7e 5-2)        Ms4  Mineyaiba (Ms17e 6-1)
Chiyonoumi (Ms7w 4-3)     Ms5  Chiyoarashi (Ms9e 4-3)
Mukainakano (Ms13w 5-2)   Ms6  Tochikamiyama (Ms3w 3-4)
Shiden (Ms4e 3-4)         Ms7  Ishizaki (Ms1w 2-5)
Hayatefuji (Ms23e 6-1)    Ms8  Yago (Ms11e 4-3)
Tochimaru (Ms11w 4-3)     Ms9  Yuma (Ms12w 4-3)
Akiseyama (Ms13e 4-3)     Ms10 Dewanoryu (Ms6e 3-4)
Shishi (Ms20e 5-2)        Ms11 Kamito (Ms4w 2-5)
Tochiseiryu (Ms8e 3-4)    Ms12 Tanabe (Ms8w 3-4)
Hatsuyama (Ms33e 6-1)     Ms13 Kiryuko (Ms17w 4-3)
Hitoshi (Ms18e 4-3)       Ms14 Miyagi (Ms24e 5-2)
Daiseiryu (Ms10w 3-4)     Ms15 Kanzaki (Ms25e 5-2)

I would say there's a non-zero chance that Asanoyama does bump Hokuseiho off the promotion queue. (Can't see them combine to force down Mitoryu instead, though.) Not sure yet which way I'll go for GTB, but the baseline assumption of course has to be that Hokuseiho goes up.

My main disagreement with Gurowake in makushita seems to be where to place 2-5 Ishizaki. Total crapshoot as always. Similarly, I wonder if we're both too harsh on 1-6 Chiyonoo by dropping him below Ms15, but they're so erratic with those demotions that there's no hope anyway.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Asashosakari

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

7 hours ago, Reonito said:

7 hours ago, Godango said:

As someone who is terribly as GTB -- what's the consensus here now about Ochiai getting in to Juryo for Haru? Are we thinking 50/50, more likely than not, certainly? 

I suppose this could be a poll.

I'd say almost certainly. If he doesn't make it, we'll know they have a hard-and-fast rule against promoting from Ms15TD, but the way the matches were set up on Day 15 strongly argues he's going up.

We can't really go by past examples as it's only happened once before and that was a long time ago. Apart from that instance I can't see any trend to suggest that Ms15TD's are treated any differently from regular Ms15s. So your guess is as good as anyone's.  I'm going to say yes.

[Masunofuji 36]

6 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

 

Your issue is that you seem to believe one win ordinarily compensates for only one rank, or even less than that.

Or maybe there's really no ranks-to-wins logic at work for you at all, considering you've argued for either Asanoyama > Kinbozan > Daishoho or Kinbozan > Asanoyama > Daishoho here.

Okay, so how should I approach this?

Let's say there's a "ceiling" above the J1e slot. Then, using the number of wins less the number of losses, we calculate whether that difference is enough to get past that ceiling from the current rank.

	Result	East	Rank	West	Result
			J1	Bushozan	9-6	+3
+3	9-6	Hokuseiho	J2
			J3
+3	9-6	Tohakuryu	J4
+7	11-4	Kinbozan	J5
			J6	Daishoho	12-3	+9
+5	10-5	Chiyonokuni	J7
			J8
+3	9-6	Roga	J9	Hidenoumi	8-7	+1
+3	9-6	Gonoyama	J10
			J11	Shimazuumi	9-6	+3
			J12	Asanoyama	14-1	+13
+9	12-3	Shonannoumi	J13
+3	9-6	Tsushimanada	J14	Hakuyozan	9-6	+3

For Bushozan: J1w + 3 ranks = 2.5 ranks above the "ceiling".

For Hokuseiho: J2e + 3 ranks = 2 ranks above the "ceiling".

For Tohakuryu: J4e + 3 ranks = J1e (0.5 ranks below the "ceiling").

For Kinbozan: J5e + 7 ranks = 3 ranks above the "ceiling".

For Daishoho: J6w + 9 ranks = 3.5 ranks above the "ceiling".

For Asanoyama: J12w + 13 ranks = 1.5 ranks above the "ceiling".

Am I at least thinking in a remotely correct direction? (I'm not saying I used this method when justifying Asanoyama's promotion, just trying to understand the underlying mechanics)

[Akinomaki 39,805]

Hochi (who have the headquarters now next to the kokugikan) calls Asanoyama's promotion definite (ketteiteki) o

Semi-tabloid ZakZak is cautious and puts him on 5th place with 4 expected open slots o

 

Tomokaze is progressing (zenshin) towards sekitori return, Sponichi calls it very likely (noukou) o

Edited January 23, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Seiyashi 4,071]

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Hochi (who have the headquarters now next to the kokugikan) calls Asanoyama's promotion definite (ketteiteki) o

Semi-tabloid ZakZak is cautious and puts him on 5th place with 4 expected open slots o

 

Tomokaze is progressing (zenshin) towards makuuchi return, Sponichi calls it very likely (noukou) o

Has anyone been tracking how accurate all these reports are after the actual banzuke came out? The only one I recall was Kotonowaka's promotion last basho but there surely are misses as well. 

[Koorifuu 886]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Tomokaze is progressing (zenshin) towards makuuchi return, Sponichi calls it very likely (noukou) o

The red pill reading here is that this unfortunately sounds easier on paper than what it really is.

Sure Shonannoumi did a great job at shattering this kind of expectation, but not many people who've watched Tomokaze recently will be confident of a stroll through juryo...

[shumitto 418]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

 

Terutsuyoshi (J10w 5-10)  Ms1  Chiyosakae (J11e 5-10)

I have a hunch they will somehow keep Terutsuyoshi in Juryo. It doesn't make sense, but I've been frustated by so many such underpromotions that I've learned to expect them. That said, I hope you are right. I would love to see Talkshowryu again in Juryo, and who doesn't want to see Ochiai mingling with the "big guys" ?

[Reonito 1,335]

6 hours ago, Masunofuji said:

Am I at least thinking in a remotely correct direction? (I'm not saying I used this method when justifying Asanoyama's promotion, just trying to understand the underlying mechanics)

Yes, this is what puts nominally him 5th in the promotion queue, with Hokuseiho closest to him. Of course, they can depart from the math, but it's a good starting point.

[Suwihuto 125]

18 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's hard to tell what you mean because the link only includes guys who didn't get promoted out of juryo. In theory, all of these could be against the numbers.

Unless I'm being dense. The odds of that are never zero.

I meant that I excluded all the ones that did get promoted, and, of the ones that didn't, the reason was always that they were too far back in the queue, rather than someone unfairly being promoted ahead of them.

[maglor 122]

15 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The Kyokai likes to give subtle extra punishments to those that have been punished. Many examples, the most recent one being Abi’s under promotion, and Oosunaarashi comes to mind. I think Asanoyama will not be promoted for that reason, and for that reason only.

Abi's under promotion compared to who? M1-M2 last basho was only falling sanyaku wrestlers who deserved to be ranked ahead of him. Let's not forget he literally got promoted from M6 to Sekiwake.

Why the need to look at conspiracies for a lack of Asanoyama's promotion when he is 5th in the promotion queue with 4 spots open?

[Gurowake 3,923]

11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Has anyone been tracking how accurate all these reports are after the actual banzuke came out? The only one I recall was Kotonowaka's promotion last basho but there surely are misses as well. 

The problem with trying to track accuracy is that a great deal of the time they're likely going to be reporting on things that are absolutely obvious.  It may even be, with the low bar of journalism standards these days, the writers are coming to their own conclusions without much thought and are not consulting other people for their opinion.  I wouldn't trust anyone's opinion on its own; I'd prefer to have a bunch of them to take into account.

[Yarimotsu 522]

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=j&form1_wins=14

I thought of the simplest query I could and started there for context. Everyone with 14 wins in Juryo was promoted except Udagawa in 1959, who would've probably made it up if they didn't reduce the size of Makuuchi by 2. From checking the lower-ranked ones though, there was never a need to bypass others in the queue to give a makuuchi promotion to a 14-win rikishi. 

I think Asanoyama will get stuck unless they can somehow demote 5, and he'll get stuck because the banzuke was unlucky.

[maglor 122]

Frankly whenever anyone, newspaper or not, says something like "the last X rikishi with 14 wins got promoted out of juryo" it just tells me they didn't actually look at the banzukes.

Next in line for the bashos a 14 win J11-J14 got promoted:

11/1979: J4 9-6; J11 14-1 3 ranks ahead by the numbers

5/2007: J5 8-7; J11 14-1 7 ranks ahead by the numbers

7/2013: J8 9-6; J13 14-1 5 ranks ahead by the numbers

9/2020: J6 9-6; J11 14-1 5 ranks ahead by the numbers

 

None of the cases are comparable, I just don't see how Asanoyama makes it up.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

The problem with trying to track accuracy is that a great deal of the time they're likely going to be reporting on things that are absolutely obvious.  It may even be, with the low bar of journalism standards these days, the writers are coming to their own conclusions without much thought and are not consulting other people for their opinion.  I wouldn't trust anyone's opinion on its own; I'd prefer to have a bunch of them to take into account.

That's fair. I have a feeling we collectively know better than whoever is writing those articles, but it would have been arrogant not to check if they indeed had inside info.