Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,249]

I'll try to kick this basho's thread off, although not too much to report out right yet. (Am I hallucinating how well the text used to line up?)

                                          Sanyaku

          0-0-8       Terunofuji    YO             
                                                 O    Takakeisho           7-1    
(3)    4-4    Wakatakakage    S    Hoshoryu              6-2      (1)
(x)    1-5-2    Takayasu          S    Shodai                   2-6      (5)
(3)    5-3    Kiribayama          K    Kotonowaka         3-5      (5)
(5)    3-5    Meisei                  K    Wakamotoharu    4-4      (4)

         3-5    Tobizaru           M1    Daieisho                6-2    
         3-5    Mitakeumi        M2    Tamawashi          5-3    
         5-3    Abi                     M3    Midorifuji              4-4    
         3-5    Nishikifuji         M4            
         5-3    Ryuden             M5    Nishikigi                5-3    
         5-3    Hokutofuji        M6            
                                             M7    Ura                         5-3    
         6-2   Onosho              M8       

Takakeisho has done enough in the first half of the basho to keep the YDC meeting penciled in so far. Perhaps the YDC members are alternating between small delight at the prospect of a Japanese Yokozuna and the thoughts that accompany the rock 'em, sock 'em, robots sumo that has been the hallmark of the Ozeki's bouts this basho. On the flip side, Hoshoryu's Ozeki aspirations look a bit unlikely as already he's accumulated one loss too many to reach the 33 win goal number. Barring anything insane happening - such as Terunofuji's sudden retirement - he'll be aiming towards a double digit result this time to give it a good go in March. Wakatakakage's similar long shot has turned into a mission to just return as a Sekiwake next basho, and even so, his yusho performance is dropping out of the 3-basho window for March.

Shodai hasn't gone out of the ring very easily this basho, but despite all the thrashing like a freshly caught fish any sort of sumo technique seems to be absent. The ozeki dream is dead and it seems inevitable the drop down into maegashira ranks is immenient.

Regarding the rest of the sanyaku, most of the records are quite even so the situation is not clear yet. Of course, Takayasu will be falling half way down Makuuchi after this basho after picking up yet another injury - just as everything seemed to be going his way again, but its not even clear if his slot will get filled back up. Maybe the most 'fun' result for those working the stats department is for all the komusubi's taking 8-7 records and someone like Daieisho achieving 10+ wins to force yet another slot. But still, a long way to go yet.

(x)    kyujo          Ichinojo    M7            
                                               M8      Oho                1-7    (2)
                                              M9            
                                              M10            
(3)    2-6    Chiyoshoma     M11    Tochinoshin  2-3-3 (x)
(2)    4-4    Kagayaki           M12    Okinoumi       intai  (x)
                                              M13    Kotoeko         4-4    (2)
(2)    5-3    Ichiyamamoto  M14    Azumaryu     6-2    (1)
(5)    2-6    Tsurugisho       M15    Mitoryu          3-5    (4)
(2)    6-2    Takarafuji         M16    Chiyomaru    1-7    (7)
                        
                        
                                               J1      Bushozan      5-3    (3)
(2)    6-2    Hokuseiho         J2    Daiamami       2-6    
         3-5    Atamifuji            J3    Oshoma          5-3    
         6-2    Tohakuryu         J4    Enho                4-4    
         7-1    Kinbozan           J5            
                                              J6    Daishoho        6-2    
         6-2    Chiyonokuni     J7               

Things are pretty miserable in Makuuchi, with Okinoumi's intai and two kyujo. On top of that, its a bit grim near the bottom with Chiyomaru nearly punching his ticket back to Juryo and several other lopsided records further up the banzuke. However, Makuuchi's misfortunes is a windfall for Juryo with probably at least four spots opening up and maybe more. Almost everyone in the top half of Juryo is in with a chance, except notably J1 Akua, who after 8 days has already removed himself from the pool of prospective candidates. I've left Asanoyama off for now as there's never a guarantee for a zensho yusho, but with the mess in Makuuchi the banzuke makers might have to dig deep, depending.

(x)    intai    Okinoumi                
                                                   J7    Tochimusashi    2-6    (2)
(2)    3-5    Shimanoumi         J8    Kitanowaka         3-5    (2)
                                                  J9    Hidenoumi          3-5    (2)
(1)    5-3    Gonoyama          J10    Terutsuyoshi      1-7    (4)
(4)    2-6    Chiyosakae         J11    Shimazuumi       4-4    (2)
(4)    3-5    Takakento           J12            
(1)    6-2    Shonannoumi    J13    Kaisho                 3-5    (4)
(4)    4-4    Tsushimanada   J14    Hakuyozan         4-4    (4)
                        
                        
    3-1    Tamashoho             Ms1    Ishizaki                  1-3    
    2-3    Tomokaze               Ms2    Tokushoryu            3-1    
    1-3    Chiyonoo                 Ms3    Tochikamiyama    2-2    
    2-2    Shiden                      Ms4    Kamito                   2-2    
    3-1    Tsukahara               Ms5            
                                               Ms6    Tokihayate             4-0    
                                               
    4-0    Ochiai                       TD   

The situation here is the most unclear out of all the sections. Of course, Okinoumi's intai opens up one spot in Juryo, but beyond that nobody has found themselves in dire straits here. (Is it just me, or that's been the situation for the past few basho? Money for nothing?) A good number only need four from the next seven, but if everyone hits their targets some may need one more to be safe, like Terutsuyoshi. In makushita, Tamashoho is knocking on the door and making the most of being catapulted to the top after last basho's yusho. I'm rooting for Tomokaze to return after his devastating injury, but he'll need to win the next two and receive a healthy dose of luck - which seems to be in short supply for makushita this basho. I can't see a situation where Chiyonoo would go up either, but it felt bad striking out someone from the top six without a corresponding honest to goodness makekoshi. I also stuck Ochiai there, but with the serene situation in Juryo it seems incredibly unlikely he'll get the call up after his debut basho.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

26 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

. (Am I hallucinating how well the text used to line up?)

Asashosakari used to use Consolas which is a fixed width font. And I used to put it in a table, which got around the alignment issues in another way. 

Edit: might not have been Consolas but it was almost certainly fixed width. Maybe Courier New. 

Re jūryō, my experience from the last few basho is, yeah, they take their own sweet time to be both demotable and promotable. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 3,923]

15 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Am I hallucinating how well the text used to line up?

Getting stuff to line up in nice neat columns and such requires some sort of magic, and I think each person's magic is different.  I paste into the edit box in Edge from Excel, but if I try that in Firefox I get images that use up some of my upload quota, so once I figured out the Edge thing, I stopped doing that.  (It's the only thing I use Edge for regularly at home.)  I think Asashosakari has some sort of HTML or other fancy template that works with the forum software in some way.  There's definitely no easy way to do it straight up with tools available in the forum edit box.

[Gurowake 3,923]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Asashosakari used to use Consolas which is a fixed width font.

Why had I not realized this before?  It makes a lot of sense now.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 4,071]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

Why had I not realize this before?  It makes a lot of sense now.

Because you didn't have a tutor who spent time complaining about non-fixed-width fonts in IDEs in coding classes, thanks to the one joker who submitted homework in Arial. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,071]

7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Getting stuff to line up in nice neat columns and such requires some sort of magic, and I think each person's magic is different.  I paste into the edit box in Edge from Excel, but if I try that in Firefox I get images that use up some of my upload quota, so once I figured out the Edge thing, I stopped doing that.  (It's the only thing I use Edge for regularly at home.)  I think Asashosakari has some sort of HTML or other fancy template that works with the forum software in some way.  There's definitely no easy way to do it straight up with tools available in the forum edit box.

Also I used to get images in Edge from Excel, but Google Sheets pastes as formatted text, so really YMMV. 

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

There could be an interesting situation for the bottom of makuuchi to happen depending on how things go in sanyaku. It also depends on if Mitoryu, Tsurugisho and Chiyomaru were to somehow limit their bad basho to 6-9/7-8. Should we only have 4-5 lower sanyaku we could be back to the M18 rank again

[Akinomaki 39,805]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Getting stuff to line up in nice neat columns and such requires some sort of magic, and I think each person's magic is different.  I paste into the edit box in Edge from Excel, but if I try that in Firefox I get images that use up some of my upload quota, so once I figured out the Edge thing, I stopped doing that.  (It's the only thing I use Edge for regularly at home.)  I think Asashosakari has some sort of HTML or other fancy template that works with the forum software in some way.  There's definitely no easy way to do it straight up with tools available in the forum edit box.

I use the old NVU html editor to paste tables into, then immediately cut and paste into Firefox 

[lackmaker 432]

Am I the only one watching sumo without analysing the stats or pasting tables?

[Koorifuu 886]

8 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Am I the only one watching sumo without analysing the stats or pasting tables?

Far from it. But you're absolutely more likely to find less invested fans in YouTube/Twitch streams or Discord servers. A good chunk of Sumoforum's habitués has been deeply devoted to this for a couple of a decades, and many other relative newcomers are just as dedicated to the details.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Koorifuu

[Seiyashi 4,071]

33 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

41 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Am I the only one watching sumo without analysing the stats or pasting tables?

Far from it. But you're absolutely more likely to find less invested fans in YouTube/Twitch streams or Discord servers. A good chunk of Sumoforum's habitués has been deeply devoted to this for a couple of a decades, and many other relative newcomers are just as dedicated to the details.

For what it's worth, I came out of lurking to join the forum because I came across Asashosakari's writeups in this very thread for each historical basho. That's what got me thinking that this was the place to be, as opposed to my generation's preference for Discord and Reddit. I'm in the Natto Discord only because Herouth got partially set up there in the aftermath of Elon Musk at Twitter, but I've to say, I much prefer the forum format for more in-depth and thoughtful comment than the shallower quickfire, reaction-driven nature of Discord and Reddit.

P.S.: I prefer longformish writing to stats/tables, but the effect is still the same.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,249]

Ok, nice strategies for the font problem. I was trying to paste between Notepad++ (which has fixed width always), google sheets, and pastebin and then dropping the result into the post and they were each pretty messed up, but in different ways, and I wanted to post before Juryo started

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 9

Makuuchi
8-1: Ō1e Takakeishō
7-2: M8e Ōnoshō, M13e Kotoshōhō
6-3: S1e Hōshōryū, M1w Daieishō, M2w Tamawashi, M5w Nishikigi, M7w Ura, M10e Aoiyama, M10w Hiradoumi, M14e Ichiyamamoto, M14w Azumaryū, M16e Takarafuji

For the first time since Kyūshū 2021, Takakeishō is in the lead on day 9, with a straightforward oshidashi win over Sadanoumi out of the tachiai. As for his chasers, his fellow oshi practitioner Ōnoshō had a similar, if slightly tougher, win against Hokutofuji, while co-leader Kotoshōhō from yesterday fell rather unexpectedly to a Houdini-esque escape move from Hiradoumi. 

At two behind is what feels like half the top division, including relatively hot Hōshōryū, freshly-demoted ex-komusubi Daieishō and Tamawashi, and a bunch of lower rankers including last basho's fortunate escapees from the jūryō barge, Hiradoumi and Takarafuji. It's to be expected that most of the riff-raff will be made to weed themselves out via bouts against each other wherever possible before being sent further up the banzuke, so let's focus only on the joi members of this group.

Hōshōryū had been having a pretty hot basho to keep alive the possibility of an ōzeki promotion as early as this basho, but his ankle seems to have buckled under him in a failed attempt to throw Wakamotoharu. It remains to be seen whether he still has a basho. On the one hand, he could try and tough it out to show that even if injured, he still deserves ōzeki at 31 wins, but realistically that's difficult to make happen with a bum ankle and he risks further injury to himself. However, he also lacks the safety net of a kachi koshi to guarantee a continued stay in sanyaku if he goes kyūjō now, and at 6 wins is at risk of dropping out of sanyaku altogether. The smart play would be to withdraw for a couple of days to rest, then come back and try and secure one or two more wins just to save rank; ōzeki will have to wait.

There's not much to be said about Daieishō and Tamawashi other than that they're having pretty typical on-again, off-again performances every other basho. Daieishō started relatively hot but has now dropped two in a row, but at least a return to sanyaku should be on the cards if he keeps his general performance up. Tamawashi is in pretty much the same boat with a bad 3-loss streak from days 4-6, but has now recovered somewhat as well.

Jūryō
9-0: J12w Asanoyama
8-1: J5e Kinbōzan
7-2: J4e Tōhakuryū, J6w Daishōhō, J9e Rōga, J13e Shōnannoumi

In a result that should surprise exactly no one, Asanoyama is leading the jūryō arasoi with a dominating yorikiri win against Kitanowaka. What is slightly more surprising is that he is for now the sole lossless sekitori, and also the sole leader of jūryō, keeping alive the tantalising prospect of returning to makuuchi with a zenshō (or even with one loss). Whether that comes to pass depends on a lot more results beyond his control, but at least he can dream, right? His sole chaser is Kinbōzan, who dispatched Bushōzan with repeated sweeping nodowas today; his only loss so far has been to Hokuseihō, who at 6-3 is just out of range of this arasoi.

As is usual with jūryō, the membership of the arasoi tends to change and fluctuate a lot, and I'd be surprised if all of the 7-2s remained in the arasoi to the end. Worth a mention are Shōnannoumi, who is having a pretty decent debut basho, and Rōga, who is having an equally good sophomore one.

Lower divisions

Makushita: Ms15TD Ochiai (Miyagino), Ms23e Hayatefuji (Isegahama), Ms40w Kazekenō (Oshiogawa), Ms49w Kotoōzutsu (Sadogatake)
Sandanme: Sd13e Wakanoshō (Tokiwayama), Sd26e Kototakuya, Sd34w Kotonofuji, Sd35w Kotokenryū, Sd74w Kaizen (Asakayama)
Jonidan: Jd11e Takerufuji (Isegahama), Jd21e Yamatō (Dewanoumi), Jd40w Daiseizan (Arashio), Jd59w Takanoryū (Tagonoura), Jd73e Ikazuchidō (Irumagawa), Jd87e Amamidake (Yamahibiki)
Jonokuchi: 5-0 Jk12w Okano (Takekuma), 4-1 Jk2e Sadanojō (Sakaigawa), 4-1 Jk7w Nishikinoryū (Asahiyama), 3-1 Jk11w Kotosatō (Sadogatake), Jk11e Kazenoumi (Oshiogawa), Jk4w Wakakaneko (Nishiiwa)

Another unsurprising result should be Miyagino's Ochiai featuring in the makushita arasoi. Unlike his Miyagino Ms15TD predecessor Kawazoe, who is slowly slogging up the makushita joi, Ochiai has blazed to a 5-0 start and looks unstoppable doing it, even overcoming ex-sekitori Akiseyama and Daiseiryū. The shine is taken a bit off it by his first win being a cheap fusen from Ōki, but a 5-0's still a 5-0. His fellow competitors for the makushita yūshō are hotshot Kazekenō (jonokuchi yūshō on his first full basho in Natsu 2022, and lifetime record of 29-4 with 6-1s in his four full basho to date), slow but sure Hayatefuji, and makushita journeyman Kotoōzutsu. It's likely that Kazekenō gives him the most trouble if/when they meet, simply based on record.

The sandanme arasoi features a trio of Sadogatake rikishi in it. Kototakuya and Kotonofuji are sandanme journeymen with 20+ basho out of ~30 spent here, but Kotokenryū (Gantulga Bilguun) is much more junior to them, and finally getting some traction in his fourth basho at sandanme (he seems to have been injured in his sandanme debut, and then spent the next two basho feeling a bit worse for wear). Tokiwayama's Wakanoshō, of the same maezumo batch as Kotokenryū, is in a similar boat; he had a brief flirtation with makushita that didn't go so well and is now back in sandanme to regroup, while Asakayama's Kaizen is an even more venerable veteran of sandanme than the Sadogatake rikishi, having spent 29 out of 42 basho here.

The jonidan arasoi is a bit large for this stage of the game but might be a good candidate for providing playoff action on senshuraku. Takerufuji comes in hot off his jonokuchi yūshō against a mixed crew of three rikishi in their first year of ōzumo and two relative longtimers. Yamatō, Daiseizan, and Ikazuchidō are the newcomers, but have surprisingly different profiles; Yamatō started his ōzumo career with a 6-1 D then went kyūjō in his second basho and seems to have taken some time to work over injury. Daiseizan has gone 6-1 in all three full basho fought, getting as high as sandanme 10 before taking two full basho zenkyū, dropping back down to jonidan where he seems likely to continue dominating. Ikazuchidō has had the most indifferent results, going 4-3, 4-3, 3-4, before now going 5-0. The two longtimers, Takanoryū and Amamidake, have been at it for 12/17 and 91/102(!) basho respectively; I think it's fairly safe to say that they're dark horses for this yūshō.

Lastly, jonokuchi has Okano standing alone at 5-0 in his first full basho for now, but depending on pairings and matchups, all the 1-loss rikishi are still in it. This includes fellow maezumo batchmates Kotosatō and Kazenoumi, low-rank denizen Sadanojō, and career restarters Wakakaneko and Nishikinoryū. Wakakaneko is returning from an extended layoff, doing the Ryūden for the last two basho to avoid going banzuke-gai, and seems to now be back for good, whereas Nishikinoryū is fighting his first full basho since a name change from Nishikiryū, and it seems to be working magic, for now.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Sakura 1,472]

I'd keep Asanoyama in until he's ruled out as a promotion candidate.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

I think I've found Asashosakari's font: Lucida Console, or a variant thereof.  

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 9

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

X	0-0-9	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeishō	8-1	O
3	5-4	Wakatakakage	S	Hōshōryū	6-3	2
X	1-5-3	Takayasu	S	Shōdai	3-6	5
3	5-4	Kiribayama	K	Kotonowaka	4-5	4
5	3-6	Meisei	K	Wakamotoharu	5-4	3
5	3-6	Tobizaru	M1	Daieishō	6-3	3
5	4-5	Mitakeumi	M2	Tamawashi	6-3	3
4	5-4	Abi	M3	Midorifuji	5-4	4
X	3-6	Nishikifuji	M4	Sadanoumi	2-7	X
5	5-4	Ryūden	M5	Nishikigi	6-3	4
6	5-4	Hokutofuji	M6	Myōgiryū	3-6	X

Demotion queue: Takayasu, Meisei, Shōdai, Kotonowaka
Promotion queue: Daieishō, Tamawashi, Abi, Midorifuji, Nishikigi

Takayasu just can't catch a break. Freshly repromoted to sanyaku after a frankly impressive 2022, he started the basho looking like crap, then picked up an injury in training and had to bow out. I hope he comes back rested and at least in a condition to try for 5/6 of his New Year's Resolution.

Meisei and Shōdai are both sporting identical 3-6 records and must win 5 of their remaining bouts to keep rank. Failure to do so will mean demotion to maegashira for Meisei, whereas Shōdai still has one more bout's worth of a safety margin; he can lose up to two and still remain komusubi.

After them, Kotonowaka has the most dubious record of the remaining sanyaku, although it's just the wrong side of 50-50 and Wakamotoharu and Kiribayama aren't looking much better. The good news is that they're mostly done with the intra-komusubi bouts, with only Kiribayama-Meisei left to go, so it won't come down to those to determine who remains.

Lastly, while Hōshōryū has the best record in the sanyaku behind KK arasoi leader Takakeishō, he also picked up a pretty bad ankle injury in today's loss to Wakamotoharu, where his ankle apparently couldn't take the strain of the throw he was loading. The bad news is that he was limping off the dohyō, the good news is that he didn't need the wheelchair, but the worse news is that he was getting better as he went, which might embolden him to stay in the basho. With an ōzeki run at stake, it's understandable if he does so, but he may be making a Faustian bargain with his long term health. That said, he has a good enough record that he might choose to settle for one or two more wins, which would limit damage to komusubi at worst even if he withdrew, and restart his ōzeki bid from there.

Makuuchi/jūryō

X	0-0-9	Ichinojō	M7
			M8	Ōhō	1-8	3
1	4-5	Takanoshō	M9
			M10
2	3-6	Chiyoshōma	M11	Tochinoshin	2-3-4	X
1	5-4	Kagayaki	M12	Okinoumi	0-6-3	X
			M13	Kotoekō	4-5	2
1	6-3	Ichiyamamoto	M14	Azumaryū	6-3	1
4	3-6	Tsurugishō	M15	Mitoryū	3-6	4
2	6-3	Takarafuji	M16	Chiyomaru	2-7	6
			J1	Bushōzan	5-4	3
3	6-3	Hokuseihō	J2	Daiamami	2-7	X
6	3-6	Atamifuji	J3	Ōshōma	5-4	4
3	7-2	Tōhakuryū	J4	Enhō	4-5	6
2	8-1	Kinbōzan	J5	Kōtokuzan	3-6	X
X	4-5	Churanoumi	J6	Daishōhō	7-2	4

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Ichinojō, Tochinoshin, Chiyomaru
Promotion queue: Kinbōzan, Bushōzan, Hokuseihō, Tōhakuryū

Three slots should open in makuuchi next basho thanks to Okinoumi's retirement, Ichinojō's suspension, and Tochinoshin's kyūjō (unless he returns to try and save rank and does so successfully). Behind them, Chiyomaru is just one loss away from an MK at makujiri and a probable drop to jūryō. The 3-6 M15 pair of Tsurugishō and Mitoryū are also in some danger, requiring 4 wins from 6 for some safety, but their position shouldn't be too weak with four other stronger demotion cases in front of them and upper jūryō not barging down the door... yet.

By the numbers, the frontrunner for jūryō promotion is Kinbōzan, who secured his KK today and needs just 2 more wins to be nominally promotable from J5. The most likely frontrunner, however, is probably Asanoyama, who can secure makuuchi repromotion with a zenshō or at most one loss - but two torpedoes the bid. Baruto's zenshō from J11e saw him promoted to makuuchi, as did his 14-1 from J11w, Chiyonokuni's 14-1 from the same rank, and Endo's 14-1 from J13w. But Terunofuji and Ryūden both scored 13-2 from J13 and were promoted only to J3, so it's safe to say that a 13-2 won't do it.

Since Asanoyama requires 5 wins from 6 to be promoted, he still ranks behind most of upper jūryō in terms of wins required, when the promotion queue consists mostly of rikishi who just need 2 or 3 more wins. But if the usual faffing about happens in jūryō, watch for Asanoyama to make his appearance in the queue.

Baruto J11e 15-0/J11w !4-1, Choyonokuni J11w 14-1, Endo J13w 14-1

Jūryō/makushita

			J7	Tochimusashi	2-7	2
2	3-6	Shimanoumi	J8	Kitanowaka	3-6	2
			J9	Hidenoumi	3-6	2
			J10	Terutsuyoshi	2-7	4
3	3-6	Chiyosakae	J11	Shimazuumi	5-4	1
4	3-6	Takakentō	J12
			J13	Kaishō	3-6	4
4	4-5	Tsushimanada	J14	Hakuyōzan	5-4	3
1	3-2	Tamashōhō	Ms1	Ishizaki	2-3
	2-3	Tomokaze	Ms2	Tokushōryū	3-2	1
			Ms3	Tochikamiyama	3-2
	2-3	Shiden	Ms4	Kamito	2-3
	4-1	Tsukahara	Ms5	Fujiseiun	3-2
	1-3	Dewanoryū	Ms6	Tokihayate	4-1
	3-1	Kawazoe	Ms7	Chiyonoumi	3-1
			...
2	5-0	Ochiai	Ms15TD

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Tsushimanada, Kaishō, Takakentō
Promotion queue: Tamashōhō, Tokushōryū, Tsukahara, Tokihayate, Ochiai?

The only munificence from the multiple kyūjō/intai in makuuchi that shines down here is Okinoumi's retirement, opening one sekitori slot. The rest of lower jūryō haven't been considerate enough to make clear who else is going down, although Tsushimanada, Kaishō, and Takakentō are all on the wrong side of the division and 50-50, and would like to start winning in a hurry. Honourable mention goes to Terutsuyoshi, who only avoids mention in the four-man long demotion queue by virtue of being the highest ranking of the rikishi who need 4 wins, although he's probably most at risk of demotion given current form.

On the flipside in makushita, the only clear prospects are Ms1e Tamashōhō, who needs just one win to join his brother-in-law in sekitoridom, and Ochiai, who is in a position to go 7-0 from Ms15 but who needs banzuke luck (currently in somewhat short supply given lower jūryō's results) on his side after what happened to Shimoda. Everyone else has frankly middling results, with the next best promotee presumptives, Tsukahara and Tokihayate (who lost to Ochiai today) at KK and 4-1, being too low to be clearly promotee apparents.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 3,923]

3 hours ago, lackmaker said:

Am I the only one watching sumo without analysing the stats or pasting tables?

All I have to say is that I follow sumo almost exclusively for the stats.

[lackmaker 432]

Like cricket and NFL sumo is partly enjoyable for the stats. It does feel slightly unusual hereabouts that people are keen to record and announce the stats rather than just enjoy reading about them.

[lackmaker 432]

35 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

All I have to say is that I follow sumo almost exclusively for the stats.

So little interest in the action? Either way your contributions are informative so keep sifting the info.

[Reonito 1,335]

4 hours ago, lackmaker said:

Am I the only one watching sumo without analysing the stats or pasting tables?

This is THE thread for stats nerds after all.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

with the next best promotee presumptives, Tsukahara and Tokihayate

Tokihayate is on the wrong side of the "invisible line"; having picked up a loss, he's not going up unless they're absolutely desperate to fill a spot in juryo

[lackmaker 432]

50 minutes ago, Reonito said:

This is THE thread for stats nerds after all.

That's OK, so long as I'm not viewed as slightly eccentric.

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

1 hour ago, lackmaker said:

That's OK, so long as I'm not viewed as slightly eccentric.

I dub you centric then.

[Rocks 1,807]

7 hours ago, lackmaker said:

Am I the only one watching sumo without analysing the stats or pasting tables?

No, but you are probably the only one reading this thread that doesn't have at least a passing interest in Guess the Banzuke game. 

We are greatly in debt to the analysts as they give us something to look at to forget the guy we were pulling for looked like they were wearing banana skins for shoes the night before.  

Edited January 16, 2023 by Rocks

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

31 minutes ago, Rocks said:

We are greatly in debt to the analysts as they give us something to look at to forget the guy we were pulling for looked like they were wearing banana skins for shoes the night before.  

Banana shoes . . . banana juice? Banana Joe's!

[Sue 483]

1 hour ago, Rocks said:

No, but you are probably the only one reading this thread that doesn't have at least a passing interest in Guess the Banzuke game. 

I have no interest whatever in GTB, but I watch Ozumo for the soap opera of rikishi getting promoted and demoted more than I watch it for the technical details in the dohyo.