Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

20 hours ago, Masunofuji said:

Am I at least thinking in a remotely correct direction? (I'm not saying I used this method when justifying Asanoyama's promotion, just trying to understand the underlying mechanics)

As Reo said, yes, although it might be easier to think in less vague terms like a "ceiling" and, if moving them up puts them at a makuuchi rank, just think of them as calculating at that rank. So, for example, Bushozan would calculate to M14W, Hokuseiho to M15E, Kinbozan to M14E, Daishoho to M13W, and Asanoyama to M15W. The reason I kicked out the idea that maaaaaaaaybe Asanoyama could get promoted at Mitoryu's expense is that, using the same math, Mitoryu calculates to M16W. (Tsurugisho and Chiyoshoma both calculate to M16E, which is also behind Asanoyama, but they're not at risk of demotion.) So, if they were going to just do the math and then list everyone in order, Mitoryu would be the one to lose out.

However, guys in makuuchi pretty much always get a couple ranks of favoritism versus guys in juryo, so if they did this, they would still be breaking the general precedent because it's Asanoyama. And i still don't think they will.

[Gurowake 4,011]

9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

That's fair. I have a feeling we collectively know better than whoever is writing those articles, but it would have been arrogant not to check if they indeed had inside info. 

There's not going to be any inside info until after the meeting anyway.

[Gurowake 4,011]

8 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

The reason I kicked out the idea that maaaaaaaaybe Asanoyama could get promoted at Mitoryu's expense is that, using the same math, Mitoryu calculates to M16W.

If you look at cases where people have been overdemoted from Makuuchi, it's solely because there was a MUCH stronger record that needed to be promoted from Juryo, as in at least 2 wins (possibly 3) more than needed to simply be promotable.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

If you look at cases where people have been overdemoted from Makuuchi, it's solely because there was a MUCH stronger record that needed to be promoted from Juryo, as in at least 2 wins (possibly 3) more than needed to simply be promotable.

So are we saying Asanoyama is or isn't one of those really strong records from jūryō simply by virtue of a 14-1, or he needed a couple ranks more to overdemote someone from makuuchi?

[Gurowake 4,011]

6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

So are we saying Asanoyama is or isn't one of those really strong records from jūryō simply by virtue of a 14-1, or he needed a couple ranks more to overdemote someone from makuuchi?

Asanoyama had exactly as many wins as he needed to be promotable, not 2 or 3 more.

[Gurowake 4,011]

I remember looking at this fairly recently, and the only instance I could recall coming up with during the time I was following sumo of an overdemotion from Makuuchi that wasn't due to the landing spot of that person disappearing was: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201501&heya=-1&shusshin=-1

8-7 J1e, 11-4 J2w, 13-2 J3e.  Clearly the J1e didn't have 2 or 3 more, but he was the top ranked Juryo rikishi and had a KK.  The worst one other than that was the J2w with 2 more wins than needed, plus being in the top half of that range.

[Chiyotasuke 274]

On 22/01/2023 at 19:49, Masunofuji said:

Maybe as an option then. I find it very cumbersome having to manually move almost 40 rikishi down half a rank. But then, I have submitted exactly one (1) GTB entry, who am I to judge :)

 

On 22/01/2023 at 20:52, Chiyotasuke said:

I did try making it so, but it resulted in unwanted behaviour and bugs. However I will try to implement it and have it as an option by next GTB

FWIW, I just added the option. I was able to solve the main problems. Let me know if it's not working as you wanted it to work. I hope I did it right.

[Masunofuji 36]

On 01/02/2023 at 17:10, Chiyotasuke said:

 

FWIW, I just added the option. I was able to solve the main problems. Let me know if it's not working as you wanted it to work. I hope I did it right.

Absolutely brilliant.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

6 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

Is that right? They tell the wrestlers their ranks before the banzuke announcement? Would make it even more amazing that the rankings don't leak early.

Yes it is, at least to some extent. Too many people know it to keep it a secret, it has to leak. I'm pretty sure inter-division changes are known. We saw names on  a certain heya's signboard way before the banzuke was officially released, helping some players with their GTB entries. Two bashos ago, I think, can't remember the details.

Dragging Kinta's revelation over here. So with this piece of "UI", how do we think the makuuchi-jūryō exchange picture looks like?

I fear for Hokuseihō, since he has the worst rank-record combination of all promotees and J2e has gone to J1e on rare occasions. I don't see them deciding to overdemote someone in makuuchi who are all safe by the numbers.

[Kintamayama 44,639]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Dragging Kinta's revelation over here. So with this piece of "UI", how do we think the makuuchi-jūryō exchange picture looks like?

I fear for Hokuseihō, since he has the worst rank-record combination of all promotees and J2e has gone to J1e on rare occasions. I don't see them deciding to overdemote someone in makuuchi who are all safe by the numbers.

Hey, it's just a gut feeling reading between the lines-it's not that I saw it on Takasago's signboard or anything.. I have him at Juryo 1 in GTB because of their "we'll punishment them some more, these hoodlums.." rule.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Kintamayama

[Reonito 1,382]

12 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Hey, it's just a gut feeling reading between the lines-it's not that I saw it on Takasago's signboard or anything.. I have him at Juryo 1 in GTB because of their "we'll punishment them some more, these hoodlums.." rule.

Without any extra punishment and without being an ex-ozeki, he'd almost certainly be at J1. This would have been so much easier if M3 Midorifuji beat M15 Mitoryu on senshuraku.

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

18 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Dragging Kinta's revelation over here. So with this piece of "UI", how do we think the makuuchi-jūryō exchange picture looks like?

I fear for Hokuseihō, since he has the worst rank-record combination of all promotees and J2e has gone to J1e on rare occasions. I don't see them deciding to overdemote someone in makuuchi who are all safe by the numbers.

I keep flipping it over in my head, but I just have such a hard time seeing them deny Hokuseiho the promotion. 9-6 from J2E shouldn't be denied unless the mechanics clearly cut against it, and they simply don't here.

I still think that if Asanoyama is bumped up to makuuchi, it's going to be at Mitoryu's expense. I wouldn't be shocked if they treat his match with Midorifuji as the type of Darwin match they sometimes impose on would-be makushita promotees against struggling juryo wrestlers, even if it wasn't intended to be that. And he won, so he stays. I haven't turned my GTB in yet, but barring some new information or a very strong feeling in the other direction, I should have Asanoyama at J1E.

[maglor 122]

Incredibly annoying that we're going to have either Hokuseiho or Asanoyama in Juryo because Mitoryu somehow went 2-0 against Takanosho and Midorifuji. Maybe we should demote one of them instead.

And if Hokuseiho somehow can't get promoted to Makuuchi after going 39-21 in Juryo, that would be insane.

 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=5&sum_wins=35&sum_range=4&show_sum=on&form1_rank=J&form1_year=1969-2023&form2_rank=J&form3_rank=J&form4_rank=J&form5_rank=J&sort_by=sum_wins

 

Only one run like it, and that was because of a basho which somehow had no promotions to Makuuchi because the bottom 11 guys all got winning records, 9 of which were 8-7. Are we to believe?

[Reonito 1,382]

If they were looking to justify it there's this on day 15:

J2e Hokuseiho 9-6

uwatenage 0-1

J12w Asanoyama 14-1

[Kintamayama 44,639]

I'm sticking with Asanoyama at J1, secret code words notwithstanding.

[Suwihuto 125]

I'm assuming this is all bluffing designed to thin the field a little for GTB.

[Kintamayama 44,639]

4 hours ago, Suwihuto said:

I'm assuming this is all bluffing designed to thin the field a little for GTB.

OK, you got me..

[just_some_guy 263]

On 11/02/2023 at 17:22, maglor said:

Incredibly annoying that we're going to have either Hokuseiho or Asanoyama in Juryo because Mitoryu somehow went 2-0 against Takanosho and Midorifuji.

 

Ol' Meatball is an agent of chaos. Some people just want to watch the banzuke burn.

[Gurowake 4,011]

I just had a bit of a thought - one reason why Asanoyama might not end up in Makuuchi is that they'd rather give him another likely Juryo Yusho than Makuuchi yusho.  This way when he goes 14-1 at J1e, they can throw him way up near the joi and give him real competition for his first basho back in Makuuchi.

[Yamanashi 3,771]

12 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I just had a bit of a thought

That's more than a bit.

There's no comparison results in the db from this century, but wouldn't that place him ~M8 for the next basho?

[Gurowake 4,011]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

That's more than a bit.

There's no comparison results in the db from this century, but wouldn't that place him ~M8 for the next basho?

Oh, on my level, that's definitely just a bit.

I think Homasho after Haru 2014 is a reasonable comparison, and would put him at M6 or so.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Gurowake