Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[Gurowake 3,872]

For Makuuchi <> Juryo, we have 4 sure demotions in Tochinoshin, Okinoumi, Ichinojo, and Chiyomaru, with Oho and Mitoryu on the bubble.  Those with currently promotable records in Juryo are Bushozan, Hokuseiho, Kinbozan, and Daishoho, with Asanoyama and Chiyonokuni on the bubble.  Both of those latter two though are fairly far down in the division, and we saw last time a definite bias against promoting from deeper in the division when the call was close.  For instance, Chiyonokuni might have a better-looking rank/record combination than Bushozan should the former win their match, but I'd suggest that Bushozan still gets the spot if the line gets drawn there.  Chiyonokuni can't get a record that's definitely better than anyone in his area of the banzuke, so I wouldn't put him ahead of anyone with a promotable record now.  Likewise, even if Asanoyama might have a better rank/record number than some of the higher-ranked promotable rikishi if he wins and they lose, the fact that he's so far down in the division suggests that under normal principles he would be disfavored. 

Thus, I believe that while Asanoyama and Chiyonokuni certainly need to win to get promoted, that's not sufficient, and Oho and/or Mitoryu would need to open up the spots for them by losing.  If both Juryo rikishi win and only one of the two Makuuchi rikishi win, I'm not so sure who gets the spot.  Asanoyama is better on the numbers, but is much deeper in the division.  That said, they do often provide an extra-large promotion for 14-1s or better, since it shows an absolute dominance that means you're significantly under-ranked.

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,872]

59 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I dunno if they'll want to hand him a second juryo yusho opportunity if there's a reasonable avenue available to put him in makuuchi.

They didn't do that for Tochinoshin, though that was several years ago under different situations.  Unless you mean to say that they don't want to hand him more prize money that would be worth more than the difference in salary.  I really can't comment on that aspect.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,872]

The sanyaku situation is terribly complicated and I think we'll have to just analyze the banzuke-making to see where they're going to draw on the line on records that are worthy of Komusubi.  I think there's a much higher chance of 5 or more Komusubi this time around, though we'll have to see exactly how things shake out.  It may come down to whether the banzuke is constructable in a reasonable manner without adding more Komusubi, since that's what had to be going through their minds last time.  Thus the more losses we get from joi rikishi against non-joi rikishi, the more likely we'll see less Komusubi.

I also might suggest that they'll promote Kiribayama to Sekiwake regardless of his and Hoshoryu's last result.  He has the second-best record in sanyaku (and might tie for the best, although in that case his promotion would be clear) and I think they'd want to at least consider the possibility of promoting him to Ozeki if he wins the yusho next basho. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 4,068]

25 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

I dunno if they'll want to hand him a second juryo yusho opportunity if there's a reasonable avenue available to put him in makuuchi.

They didn't do that for Tochinoshin, thought that was several years ago under different situations.  Unless you mean to say that they don't want to hand him more prize money that would be worth more than the difference in salary.  I really can't comment on that aspect.

13-2 from J12 wouldn't be promotable by the numbers and the banzuke in Nagoya 2014 was limited to three promotions. Tochinoshin also had to go to a playoff with Ichinojō for the yūshō, so it's not quite the overwhelming dominance that a 14-1 J12 Asanoyama potentially up to 3 wins more than everyone else would be, plus being actually promotable by the numbers.

I also think the NSK is not as vindictive as we make them sound, given they haven't shown any hint of shafting previous miscreants (they even so kindly put Asanoyama at Ms15 two basho ago to give him the chance of instant repromotion). Plus if they're hard up for some stability at the top of the banzuke and this factors into their decision-making, Asanoyama is someone who could provide it in two to three more basho if they're generous and promote him this time. If he goes 14-1, it's at least a fair bet that they'd promote him with half an opportunity.

I'll also take this opportunity to thank Gurowake for taking over the analysis for at least today: I'm in a part of the world that makes a big deal out of the Lunar New Year and won't have time to keep up with sumo these two days. Pity, but then from what I saw in the discussion thread today, there isn't much to get too excited over this basho.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 3,872]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

13-2 from J12 wouldn't be promotable by the numbers and the banzuke in Nagoya 2014 was limited to three promotions.

i agree the situation is not entirely the same.  However, there was a lot of expectation/hope that he'd get promoted because it was close, Kagamio could have been considered demotable since M17e was going away, there was the same thought that they didn't want to give him another Yusho,, and he was obviously at the right strength for Makuuchi with his two defeats of Ichinojo to finish things off.  If Asanoyama does win, he'll have a stronger case, and there may be more extra-dohyo activity under consideration here, but the trend is generally not to promote from that deep, and given where Tochinoshin ended up on the next banzuke, being that deep in the division is similar to being outside the joi with a good record - you're going to get screwed at the expense of those who were previously ranked higher.

[Hankegami 412]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Chiyonokuni with a win (11-4) should be promotable by the numbers.

Sure, sorry, I was speaking from the perspective of Asanoyama's promotion. Chiyonokuni with 11-4 would get J0e and possibly jump over Bushozan (his direct opponent for tomorrow) who would inevitability end with a 8-7 and a J0w. But Asanoyama with a 14-1Y should be placed J-1w by the numbers, higher than them both. Anyway, @Gurowake has just pointed out that Bushozan could receive precedence in any circumstance, so perhaps we are talking about nothing. I cannot see a winning Chiyonokuni jumping over a winning Asanoyama though.

So, we're square back to eventual extra spots to be opened. I personally project Mitoryu to lose tomorrow against Midorifuji - the Elf is a much better wrestler than him - and therefore go 6-9 ("M18w"). Oho has an uneasy match against Kagayaki and everything will go down as how much in shape he will be tomorrow. The Oho from most of the tournament would lose, but in the last days he showed much more vitality. Anyway, in case of loss Oho would go 3-12 ("M17w"). Them both are weak demotion records especially by recent precedents, and I would be inclined to think that both Oho and Mitoryu will be accommodated at the bottom of Maakuchi but not demoted. In short, if Bushozan gets the nod, my take is that Asanoyama and Chiyonokuni will remain in Juryo no matter what.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Hankegami

[Asashosakari 18,650]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

i agree the situation is not entirely the same.  However, there was a lot of expectation/hope that he'd get promoted because it was close, Kagamio could have been considered demotable since M17e was going away, there was the same thought that they didn't want to give him another Yusho,, and he was obviously at the right strength for Makuuchi with his two defeats of Ichinojo to finish things off.  If Asanoyama does win, he'll have a stronger case, and there may be more extra-dohyo activity under consideration here, but the trend is generally not to promote from that deep, and given where Tochinoshin ended up on the next banzuke, being that deep in the division is similar to being outside the joi with a good record - you're going to get screwed at the expense of those who were previously ranked higher.

The Tochinoshin of the time also wasn't much more of a rikishi than Abi is now. With Asanoyama we're talking about somebody that competed at credible ozeki level and the reason he's down in juryo has nothing to do with injury and potentially diminished capabilities.

[Reonito 1,295]

10 hours ago, Hankegami said:

If I did my math correctly, it's all up to Bushozan's result tomorrow. Asanoyama can cap with a J-1w claim, and three wrestlers above him can certainly do matter than that no matter what (Hokuseiho, Kinbozan, Daishoho). Other two are now out of contention (Tohakuryu, Chiyonokuni). This means that the fourth spot will go either to Bushozan or Asanoyama, and the former has a better claim ATM. However, if Bushozan goes 8-7 tomorrow he will finish with a J0w claim, and could be jumped over by Asanoyama. There are plenty of precedents for a J1w not being promoted with a 8-7 (my query). But again, it's all up for Bushozan to lose.

A loss by Mitoryu could open up a 5th slot, and even Oho would technically be demotable with a loss...

[Reonito 1,295]

So for clarity:

Yusho: the winner of O1w Takakeisho and M13e Kotoshoho, both 11-3. Everyone else is out of contention.

San'yaku:

S1e Wakatakakage (8-6) holds his rank. S1w Hoshoryu (7-7) must win to do likewise, and will drop to komusubi with a loss.

S2e Takayasu (1-5-8) will fall to mid-maegashira. S2w Shodai (6-8) must win to limit his fall to komusubi.

K1e Kiribayama (10-4) will become sekiwake with a win or a Hoshoryu loss. It's been suggested he might get bumped up anyway.

K1w Kotonowaka (7-7) must win to keep his rank. K2e Meisei (4-10) will fall down the ranks. K2w Wakamotoharu (8-6) will remain komusubi.

So that's 4 san'yaku slots accounted for by Wakatakakage, Hoshoryu, Kiribayama, and Wakamotoharu. If Shodai and Kotonowaka lose, Hoshoryu wins, and Kiribayama gets promoted, one regular komusubi slot will open. Otherwise, all regular slots will be full, and Shodai and Kotonowaka can guarantee two more komusubi slots by winning.

Contenders:

Should a regular komusubi slot open, M1w Daieisho (9-5) is currently the leading contender. It's not clear if he'll get an extra slot if he loses, or even necessarily if he wins. M2w Tamawashi (8-6) is probably out of luck even with a win. A potential fly in the ointment here is M1e Tobizaru (7-7). It seems like we've established that they'll promote any KK M1e, but if he goes up with a win, it would be tough to leave out Daieisho with a better score at the same rank.

Depending on how this all shakes out, we could end up with the minimal 4-person junior san'yaku (though that could make the joi impossible like last time) or as many as the current 8.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Reonito

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

23 minutes ago, Reonito said:

 

Depending on how this all shakes out, we could end up with the minimal 4-person junior san'yaku (though that could make the joi impossible like last time) or as many as the current 8.

4-person sanyaku seems extremely unlikely; it would require losses for Shodai, Kotonowaka, Tobizaru, and Daiesho at the same time  - and should still look like a major snub for (at least) Daieisho.

[Reonito 1,295]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo:

Three spots in the top division are being vacated by the absences of Ichinojo, Tochinoshin, and Okinoumi due to suspension, injury, and retirement, respectively. A 4th slot is open by dropping M16w Chiyomaru (3-11), who'll be making the trip to juryo for the 7th time, the most among active rikishi.

Two incumbents are at least somewhat endangered, and could drop with a loss: M15w Mitoryu (6-8) and M8w Oho (3-11). After Takarafuji's non-demotion last time, it's hard to see Oho going down; with Mitoryu, it depends on the strength of the promotion pressure.

With 4 slots open, J5e Kinbozan (11-3) and J2e Hokuseiho (9-5) should definitely be making their eagerly awaited top-division debuts. J6w Daishoho (11-3) should also be in makuuchi for the first time since dropping out after Kyushu 2019, with even a stint in makushita in there. J1w Bushozan (8-6) is a lock to make his debut with a win, and is likely to do so even with a loss.

J12w Asanoyama (13-1) and J7e Chiyonokuni (10-4; his best basho in years) must win to stake a real promotion claim; should they do so, it'll come down to whether Mitoryu and Oho lose, and how the banzuke committee judges their relative merits, although a loss by Bushozan could add him to the bubble conversation.

[Reonito 1,295]

Juryo <-> Makushita:

Three Juryo spots are open: that of Okinoumi plus those of J13w Kaisho (4-10) and J11e Chiyosakae (4-10). Two incumbents are in danger: J10w Terutsuyoshi (5-9) and J12e Takakento (6-8). They've been matched up with two promotion contenders from makushita in what sure look like direct exchange bouts: Ms1e Tamashoho (3-3) and Ms5e Tsukahara (5-1), respectively. The outcomes of these bouts will determine which two of the four rikishi will receive a salary in March.

As for the 3 open spots, one should be filled by Ms2w Tokushoryu (4-2), regardless of the outcome of his bout against Ms5w Fujiseiun (4-2), who is out of luck. Another should go to the winner of the bout between Ms2e Tomokaze (3-3) and Ms3w Tochikamiyama (3-3). And that leaves the third spot for the makushita champion, Ms15TD Ochiai (7-0), who for my money has been the most exciting wrestler of this tournament.

Tune in tomorrow to see which questions have been answered, and which will be left in the hands of the banzuke committee.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Reonito

[maglor 122]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

13-2 from J12 wouldn't be promotable by the numbers and the banzuke in Nagoya 2014 was limited to three promotions. Tochinoshin also had to go to a playoff with Ichinojō for the yūshō, so it's not quite the overwhelming dominance that a 14-1 J12 Asanoyama potentially up to 3 wins more than everyone else would be, plus being actually promotable by the numbers.

 I also think the NSK is not as vindictive as we make them sound, given they haven't shown any hint of shafting previous miscreants (they even so kindly put Asanoyama at Ms15 two basho ago to give him the chance of instant repromotion). Plus if they're hard up for some stability at the top of the banzuke and this factors into their decision-making, Asanoyama is someone who could provide it in two to three more basho if they're generous and promote him this time. If he goes 14-1, it's at least a fair bet that they'd promote him with half an opportunity.

I'll also take this opportunity to thank Gurowake for taking over the analysis for at least today: I'm in a part of the world that makes a big deal out of the Lunar New Year and won't have time to keep up with sumo these two days. Pity, but then from what I saw in the discussion thread today, there isn't much to get too excited over this basho.

Abi also got promoted to Sekiwake from M6. The conspiracy theories about promotions are just that.

[maglor 122]

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202011&amp;heya=-1&amp;shusshin=-1&amp;snr=on

Incredibly helpful basho when thinking about Juryo promotions, the order is 4-3 from Ms2e > 7-0 from Ms15w > 4-3 from Ms2w.

So Tamashoho and Tomokaze are unquestionably 1 and 2. The question is whether Ochiai is still 3rd ahead of Tokushoryu, or whether being Ms15TD instead of Ms15w slips him behind. 

 

Of course, it is irrelevant if Terutsuyoshi gets demoted, as that will mean there are 4 spots(along with Okinoumi, Kaisho, and Chiyosakae).

[Gurowake 3,872]

6 minutes ago, maglor said:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202011&amp;heya=-1&amp;shusshin=-1&amp;snr=on

Incredibly helpful basho when thinking about Juryo promotions, the order is 4-3 from Ms2e > 7-0 from Ms15w > 4-3 from Ms2w.

The order in which rikishi appear in a division is not reflective of the order in which they'd be promoted or demoted.  It's simply not true that the rikishi are listed in order and then divided into divisions - first the promotions to each division are done, along with the demotions, and then the rikishi are placed in order, and there can be different criteria in each part.  This is fairly obvious if you look at the one egregious instance of the Ms5-Ms6 line mentioned earlier.  There's no doubt that if a 4-3 Ms5w isn't promoted that they'd be behind a 5-2 Ms6e.  Yet the Ms5 was promoted there.  It can also be seen in the lower divisions, where certain records are generally required for promotion to each division based on rank, and the needed demotions are determined based on how many promotions are needed, which leads to apparent comparisons that normally would go the other way if they had to be considered in a vacuum, but were done because there just are too many promotions and someone has to be demoted, even if they'd be ranked ahead of the promotees if they weren't demoted.

[Gurowake 3,872]

17 minutes ago, maglor said:

Of course, it is irrelevant if Terutsuyoshi gets demoted, as that will mean there are 4 spots

What makes you think he won't be demoted?  He lost a day 15 exchange bout against someone that must be promoted because he won, and couldn't have been promoted if he lost, his record is demotable by the numbers, he's not in the absolute best position relative to the numbers, and all of the rikishi up for promotion have records that are clearly good enough to force down people with demotable records.  It possible that Ochiai gets shafted because he's not a real Ms15 but I doubt it.  If Tochikamiyama had won instead of Tomokaze, then maybe you could say that Terutsuyoshi might get to stay, but it's a real stretch to keep him and exclude Tokushoryu.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Gurowake

[Tigerboy1966 1,372]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

It's simply not true that the rikishi are listed in order and then divided into divisions

Worth bearing this in mind when you are drafting your GTB entry!

[Chiyotasuke 257]

For anyone making their GTB draft, I recommend using my GTB helper tool. I fixed bugs and added lots of new features https://chiyotasuke.github.io/gtbhelper/

[robnplunder 974]

5 hours ago, maglor said:

 

So Tamashoho and Tomokaze are unquestionably 1 and 2. The question is whether Ochiai is still 3rd ahead of Tokushoryu, or whether being Ms15TD instead of Ms15w slips him behind. 

 

I am sure Tomokaze will join Juryo.  Okinoumi's Intai will help his case.  I have not seen his matches of late.  I wonder if he will ever get his top form back.

[Masunofuji 36]

37 minutes ago, Chiyotasuke said:

For anyone making their GTB draft, I recommend using my GTB helper tool. I fixed bugs and added lots of new features https://chiyotasuke.github.io/gtbhelper/

Wow that's a great one.

If you take feature requests, putting a M1e into an already occupied M1e slot could slide the previous occupant into M1w, and so on further down the banzuke. That would be awesome.

[Kashunowaka 300]

28 minutes ago, Masunofuji said:

Wow that's a great one.

If you take feature requests, putting a M1e into an already occupied M1e slot could slide the previous occupant into M1w, and so on further down the banzuke. That would be awesome.

I disagree; there is a point with putting them into the same slot. Very often two rikishi end up in the same nominal position and the whole exercise is about figuring out who should be moved to a different slot.

[Masunofuji 36]

4 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

I disagree; there is a point with putting them into the same slot. Very often two rikishi end up in the same nominal position and the whole exercise is about figuring out who should be moved to a different slot.

Maybe as an option then. I find it very cumbersome having to manually move almost 40 rikishi down half a rank. But then, I have submitted exactly one (1) GTB entry, who am I to judge :)

[Kashunowaka 300]

15 minutes ago, Masunofuji said:

Maybe as an option then. I find it very cumbersome having to manually move almost 40 rikishi down half a rank. But then, I have submitted exactly one (1) GTB entry, who am I to judge :)

If you start from the top I don't think you will have that problem. 

[Chiyotasuke 257]

1 hour ago, Masunofuji said:

Wow that's a great one.

If you take feature requests, putting a M1e into an already occupied M1e slot could slide the previous occupant into M1w, and so on further down the banzuke. That would be awesome.

I did try making it so, but it resulted in unwanted behaviour and bugs. However I will try to implement it and have it as an option by next GTB

[Koorifuu 858]

How do we feel about Oho, Mitoryu and Bushozan all winning and therefore collectively and figuratively flipping Asanoyama the bird?