maglor

My guess is that Onosato needs either 13 wins or a yusho, and preferably both, to have real chances at promotion. I think it's very difficult for them to debt 11-12Y-13Y, but they have denied 35 wins from M5(with no yushos) previously

Takerufuji won 13 to Nishikigi's 8 so I suppose he should go to Komusubi.

Gonoyama is already getting demoted behind guys who he calculates ahead of despite being in the joi, why on earth would he be demoted another 2 ranks for Onosho

so they just hate joi rikishi now, will keep that in mind. disaster for me, 46(i think)

It's my firm belief that the idea that 5 promotions means a 6th is less likely is just plainly wrong. Many examples in the last decade of 6+ promotions to maku where either a juryo guy who didn't calc to maku was promoted, a maku guy who could somewhat feasibly have been saved was demoted, or both. It's basically the same argument as "When there are a lot of Ozeki they are less willing to promote another one", which I have also seen no proof for.

Yes of course. To give an example of why I ended up promoting Tokihayate, I took a look at rikishi calculating to J1W(dropping) vs rikishi calculating to J1E(rising). Hoshoryu - 2022/07 - 10-5 J6E promoted for 3-12 M9W Ikioi with division cutoff at M17W Aoiyama - 2011/09 - 10-3-2 J6E promoted for 5-10 M13E Yoshiazuma with division cutoff at M17E Kotonowaka - 2020/01 - 8-7 J2E promoted for 0-0-15 M3W Kotoyuki with division cutoff at M17W Daishoho - 2018/11 - 8-7 J2E not promoted for 6-9 M14W Daishomaru with division cutoff at M16W Tokushoryu + Kyokushuho - 2017/01 - 11-4 J8E and 8-7 J2E promoted for 6-9 M14E Chiyotoori and 6-9 M14W Chiyotairyu with division cutoff at M16E Edit: missed 2022/11, Takarafuji calculates to J1E and survives ahead of Akua who is one rank ahead of him with 10-5 from J5. 90% of the bashos with someone at 10-5 J6E or 9-6 J4E or 8-7 J2E(I treat those as generally the same) are useless because either they had to be promoted with too many demotable records from Maku or they couldn't be demoted as that would require overdemoted a Makuuchi guy who should stay up. But the few bashos where they go up against a case similar to Endo's are very instructive.

The question is not "Where does a rikishi with X wins from Y rank go", but "Between Rikishi X with Y rank/record combo and Rikishi A with B rank/record combo, which one historically winds up ahead." Looking at rikishi moves in isolation is always quite useless. You see this every time discussions about promotion/demotion between divisions happen.

As Asashosakari said, this could be a glorious victory for me or it could be a one-way trip out of the top 10, we shall see. I'm sure I had a reason for Ura at M1W but I wish I could remember it. The Tokihayate promo might be insane but after spending an hour looking at precedent I talked myself into it.

I'm not sure why people care so much about "X record from Y rank did or did not result in promotion", especially for something with as much inherent variance as big results from bottom Juryo. A certain number of rikishi will be demoted from Makuuchi, and an equivalent number will be promoted from Juryo. The question is simply how many do you think will be demoted and what place in the promotion or demotion queue any given rikishi holds. Sure, if a certain rank/record combo gets promoted or demoted 95% of the time it is quite likely that the same will happen this time too, but by the time you are actually doing the banzuke it doesn't seem necessary.

The Tobizaru promotion is more applicable - surely no disagreement that Tobizaru forced a spot open there https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202301#M

Well of course any juryo KK is a "promotable record", as long as enough maku guys fall or retire. But pretty much all of those promotions happened as they should by the numbers - and recently a j2 8-7 stayed down for a j6 11-4. https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201607#J Here a 13-2 J11 goes up in favor of a 8-7 J3. I think Takerufuji goes up - if it comes down to two Juryo guys with strong promotable records, I think they'd probably prioritize the high Juryo guy even if the J10 has a better numerical record, but I can't see them promote someone without a strong numerical case instead of Takerufuji

So.... what are we doing about that last Juryo spot? Keep 5-10 J12 Chiyomaru, 6-9 J14 Chiyosakae, or promote Ms8 6-1 Onokatsu?

Praying for the Chiyomaru loss so that we can get banzuke chaos Reckon Onokatsu could find his way up?

Well Wakamotoharu is the size of Kirishima and Hoshoryu while WTK is closer to Ura and Tobizaru than he is to WMH. I'll cut him some slack. As for Onosato and Hakuoho, let's see them fight at least one basho in the joi before we start getting ahead of ourselves.