Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

19 minutes ago, Masunofuji said:

At J1 somewhere I think, together with Tohakuryu. No way they're keeping Asanoyama down there for another basho.

Why do you say that? If they were that concerned about Asanoyama getting back up to the top ranks, they could have given him a shorter suspension. There are probably guys in that committee room who want him back up, but I'm sure there are others who are getting a chuckle out of Asanoyama being thwarted. Much more importantly, this might be a conversation if Daishoho had finished 11-4 instead of 12-3, but right now Asanoyama isn't even close to having a better grip on a promotion spot than the four ahead of him.

[Reonito 1,308]

21 minutes ago, Masunofuji said:

At J1 somewhere I think, together with Tohakuryu. No way they're keeping Asanoyama down there for another basho.

With 12 wins at J6, Daishoho's got the strongest promotion case of anyone.

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

4 minutes ago, Reonito said:

With 12 wins at J6, Daishoho's got the strongest promotion case of anyone.

Mathemagically, the person Asanoyama gets closest to is Hokuseiho. If y'all (general) think they're going to keep Hokuseiho at J1E after going 9-6 at J2E to prioritize the return of the prodigal son... can't say for sure you're wrong, but that seems like it would go against every standard they want to appear to stand for.

Edit: If they want to really jump Asanoyama up, they can let him run roughshod over juryo again and give him a bigger bump into makuuchi than they might give others in the same situation, on the basis he's "proven" or what have you. That would both be pretty reasonable and look a lot less shady than getting him in there right now.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Sumo Spiffy

[Reonito 1,308]

2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Why do you say that? If they were that concerned about Asanoyama getting back up to the top ranks, they could have given him a shorter suspension. There are probably guys in that committee room who want him back up, but I'm sure there are others who are getting a chuckle out of Asanoyama being thwarted. Much more importantly, this might be a conversation if Daishoho had finished 11-4 instead of 12-3, but right now Asanoyama isn't even close to having a better grip on a promotion spot than the four ahead of him.

When Mitoryu got stuck at J1e after going 12-3 Y at J6w in Nagoya 2021, there was only one promotion, and it was as strong as it gets—Yutakayama went 10-5 at J1e. And they opted not to push down Chiyonokuni, who went 7-8 at M16e.

[Reonito 1,308]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Mathemagically, the person Asanoyama gets closest to is Hokuseiho. If y'all (general) think they're going to keep Hokuseiho at J1E after going 9-6 at J2E to prioritize the return of the prodigal son... can't say for sure you're wrong, but that seems like it would go against every standard they want to appear to stand for.

They could, if they really wanted to, view their final-day bout as the decider for promotion, but it would, as you say, go against all usual banzuke-making principles.

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

When Mitoryu got stuck at J1e after going 12-3 Y at J6w in Nagoya 2021, there was only one promotion, and it was as strong as it gets—Yutakayama went 10-5 at J1e. And they opted not to push down Chiyonokuni, who went 7-8 at M16e.

That's a good point. Tsurugisho and Mitoryu (and Chiyoshoma, come to think) all calculate to M16, ie. still within the division, and that's generally enough to keep guys in place. But if Asanoyama gets bumped to makuuchi, it seems enormously more likely that it's at Mitoryu's expense, not Hokuseiho's (or Daishoho's).

[Masunofuji 36]

2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Why do you say that? If they were that concerned about Asanoyama getting back up to the top ranks, they could have given him a shorter suspension. There are probably guys in that committee room who want him back up, but I'm sure there are others who are getting a chuckle out of Asanoyama being thwarted. Much more importantly, this might be a conversation if Daishoho had finished 11-4 instead of 12-3, but right now Asanoyama isn't even close to having a better grip on a promotion spot than the four ahead of him.

It's not about the suspension anymore, he cleared that. It's about the fact that the precedent of keeping a 14-1 Y rikishi in juryo is really, really old. And there is a significantly more recent precedent of a 14-1 Y being promoted to makuuchi even from a lower rank to that of Asanoyama. Coupled with the fact that Asanoyama's experience in the top division is not in question, I'd say he should be taking precedence. Daishoho also wasn't given any exchange bouts.

8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

With 12 wins at J6, Daishoho's got the strongest promotion case of anyone.

I don't think so. Bushozan and Hokuseiho are definitely in front of him in that respect. And I would also put Kinbozan before Daishoho since in their bout Kinbozan won.

[Bunbukuchagama 681]

1 minute ago, Masunofuji said:

in their bout Kinbozan won.

This should be irrelevant.

[Masunofuji 36]

4 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This should be irrelevant.

It also is just a secondary factor, the fact that Kinbozan holds a 1.5 rank advantage over Daishoho while being only 1 win behind him should suffice.

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

21 minutes ago, Masunofuji said:

It's not about the suspension anymore, he cleared that. It's about the fact that the precedent of keeping a 14-1 Y rikishi in juryo is really, really old. And there is a significantly more recent precedent of a 14-1 Y being promoted to makuuchi even from a lower rank to that of Asanoyama. Coupled with the fact that Asanoyama's experience in the top division is not in question, I'd say he should be taking precedence. Daishoho also wasn't given any exchange bouts.

Let's assume nobody has any ill feelings towards Asanoyama or willingness to hold him back when it's not necessary. The precedent of 14-1 Y juryo rikishi being promoted regardless of rank exists because, in those situations, there have always been enough wrestlers being demoted to allow the 14-1 guy to move up. It looked like that was going to happen again. But in the cases of Kotokaze, Baruto, Endo, and Chiyonokuni (the four double-digit juryo wrestlers to be promoted to makuuchi with a 14-1 yusho), there was nobody left in juryo who had better mathematical promotion cases than they did. This situation is different and should be treated differently.

Like I said in a later post, it's possible they still dunk on Mitoryu since he's the last makuuchi wrestler who can be demoted but "should" stay in the top division. But I would be astonished if any of the four guys ahead of Asanoyama are left back. The only one with whom it's close is Hokuseiho, and promoting Asanoyama while only giving Hoku one rank on 9-6 seems like it would be its own mess.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Sumo Spiffy

[Akinomaki 39,585]

35 minutes ago, Reonito said:

With 12 wins at J6, Daishoho's got the strongest promotion case of anyone.

He will rank highest in makuuchi of those promoted, but any j1 with 9 wins is above in line for promotion. Hokuseiho not, but definitely Bushozan.

[Reonito 1,308]

I feel like if it was some random juryo guy going 14-1 at J12w with the rest of the promotion picture like this, we wouldn't even be having the conversation. There will be a lot of clamor to promote Asanoyama, perhaps just among fans/media, perhaps within the NSK, but they'd have to do something that departs from the usual rules to accommodate him. It is perhaps relevant that they left Terunofuji in Juryo after his yusho, though his 13-2 at J13 was a considerably weaker numerical case.

[Gurowake 3,886]

1 hour ago, Masunofuji said:

nd there is a significantly more recent precedent of a 14-1 Y being promoted to makuuchi even from a lower rank to that of Asanoyama.

You can't just look at the decision in a vacuum, you have to consider the context.  You have to be talking about Endo, because he's the only one ranked below Asanoyama to ever get 14 wins.  That same basho Endo was promoted they promoted a 9-6 from J7e.  That's a whole lot weaker than anything that we have this basho.  I think for that basho in today's environment they'd leave in Sokokurai instead of promoting Asahisho, but you'd still be left with promoting a 9-6 J6w because I can't see keeping anyone else.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,886]

Makushita joi guess:

Terutsuyoshi(5-10 J10w)	Ms1	Chiyosakae(5-10 J11e)
Tsukahara(5-2 Ms5e)	Ms2	Fujiseiun(5-2 Ms5w)
Kaisho(5-10 J13w)	Ms3	Tokihayate(5-2 Ms6w)
Kawazoe(5-2 Ms7e)	Ms4	Chiyonoumi(4-3 Ms7w)
Mineyaiba(6-1 Ms17e)	Ms5	Mukainakano(5-2 Ms13w)
Chiyoarashi(4-3 Ms9e)	Ms6	Tochikamiyama(3-4 Ms3w)
Shiden(3-4 Ms4e)	Ms7	Yago(4-3 Ms11e)
Tochimaru(4-3 Ms11w)	Ms8	Hayatefuji(6-1 Ms23e)
Yuma(4-3 Ms12w)	Ms9	Akiseyama(4-3 Ms13e)
Ishizaki(2-5 Ms1w)	Ms10	Dewanoryu(3-4 Ms6e)
Shishi(5-2 Ms20e)	Ms11	Hatsuyama(6-1 Ms33e)
Tochiseiryu(3-4 Ms8e)	Ms12	Kamito(2-5 Ms4w)
Kiryuko(4-3 Ms17w)	Ms13	Tanabe(3-4 Ms8w)
Hitoshi(4-3 Ms18e)	Ms14	Miyagi(5-2 Ms24e)
Kanzaki(5-2 Ms25e)	Ms15	Nishinoryu(5-2 Ms25w)

 

Next would be Daiseiryu.  Very little attention was paid to the bottom - I just threw people in whatever order.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Gurowake

[Koorifuu 860]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

You can't just look at the decision in a vacuum, you have to consider the context.  You have to be talking about Endo, because he's the only one ranked below Asanoyama to ever get 14 wins.  That same basho Endo was promoted they promoted a 9-6 from J7e.  That's a whole lot weaker than anything that we have this basho.  I think for that basho in today's environment they'd leave in Sokokurai instead of promoting Asahisho, but you'd still be left with promoting a 9-6 J6w because I can't see keeping anyone else.

And just because story repeats itself over and over again...

That basho (Nagoya 2013) saw Tochinoshin fall off makuuchi after a mid-basho kyujo left him 3-3-9... From M11w.

Hatsu 2023 saw Tochinoshin fall off makuuchi after a mid-basho kyujo left him 2-3-10... From M11w.

Unlike ten years ago, somehow I don't think Tochinoshin has it in him to come back with multiple yusho across juryo & makuuchi + an ozeki tenure.

----------

Regarding the demotion/promotion topic. No way in hell they'd promote Asahisho for Sokokurai these days. Honestly, I think they'd even keep Tochinoshin over a 9-6 J6w.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Koorifuu

[Reonito 1,308]

44 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Terutsuyoshi(5-10 J10w) Ms1 Chiyosakae(5-10 J11e)

Tsukahara(5-2 Ms5e) Ms2 Fujiseiun(5-2 Ms5w)

Kaisho(5-10 J13w) Ms3 Tokihayate(5-2 Ms6w)

Kawazoe(5-2 Ms7e) Ms4 Chiyonoumi(4-3 Ms7w)

Mineyaiba(6-1 Ms17e) Ms5 Mukainakano(5-2 Ms13w)

Chiyoarashi(4-3 Ms9e) Ms6

The promotion zone seems pretty clear in any case; the only question mark is whether Chiyoarashi could bump either Mineyaiba or Mukainakano, but I haven't looked carefully at the precedents.

[Suwihuto 125]

I had a look around for what's happened to 9-6 results from J2, and the only cases which nominally went against the numbers were any where a J1 was promoted with an 8-7.

This includes any cases back to 1970, I think the closest was a half-rank and dai-yusho difference.

On this basis, I simply can't see Asanoyama getting the nod against the numbers here.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Suwihuto
Added a link to the query.

[Masunofuji 36]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

You can't just look at the decision in a vacuum, you have to consider the context.  You have to be talking about Endo, because he's the only one ranked below Asanoyama to ever get 14 wins.  That same basho Endo was promoted they promoted a 9-6 from J7e.  That's a whole lot weaker than anything that we have this basho.  I think for that basho in today's environment they'd leave in Sokokurai instead of promoting Asahisho, but you'd still be left with promoting a 9-6 J6w because I can't see keeping anyone else.

I don't know, the context looks pretty equivalent to me. I'm passing over someone with a worse record (Daishoho this basho, Osunaarashi / Tokushinho in 2013.07) in favour of someone with a better record but further down the banzuke (Asanoyama this time, Endo in 2013.07). What am I missing?

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Mitoryu gets the short end of the stick after all. I'd think he'd even prefer that, juryo is his domain.

[Jakusotsu 5,761]

4 minutes ago, Suwihuto said:

On this basis, I simply can't see Asanoyama getting the nod against the numbers here.

At least there won't be yet another of those dreaded M17 yusho that way.

[Ripe 68]

1 hour ago, Masunofuji said:

I don't know, the context looks pretty equivalent to me. I'm passing over someone with a worse record (Daishoho this basho, Osunaarashi / Tokushinho in 2013.07) in favour of someone with a better record but further down the banzuke (Asanoyama this time, Endo in 2013.07). What am I missing?

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Mitoryu gets the short end of the stick after all. I'd think he'd even prefer that, juryo is his domain.

Daishoho went 12-3 from J6 while Osunaarashi went 10-5 from J9 (Tokushinho is 10-5 at J10 and clearly behind Osunaarashi)... that is nowhere near to being a equivalent. And that is without considering that Daishoho is probably 1st (or at worst 2nd) in line for promotion while Asanoyama is at best 4th and probably 5th.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Ripe

[Reonito 1,308]

22 minutes ago, Masunofuji said:

I don't know, the context looks pretty equivalent to me. I'm passing over someone with a worse record (Daishoho this basho, Osunaarashi / Tokushinho in 2013.07) in favour of someone with a better record but further down the banzuke (Asanoyama this time, Endo in 2013.07). What am I missing?

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Mitoryu gets the short end of the stick after all. I'd think he'd even prefer that, juryo is his domain.

There's fairly standard rank/record math that underlies banzuke decisions, and although of course there are other factors, they rarely deviate too far from it. It's not simply about higher/lower rank or better/worse record; the exact numbers matter.

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

2 hours ago, Suwihuto said:

I had a look around for what's happened to 9-6 results from J2, and the only cases which nominally went against the numbers were any where a J1 was promoted with an 8-7.

This includes any cases back to 1970, I think the closest was a half-rank and dai-yusho difference.

On this basis, I simply can't see Asanoyama getting the nod against the numbers here.

It's hard to tell what you mean because the link only includes guys who didn't get promoted out of juryo. In theory, all of these could be against the numbers.

Unless I'm being dense. The odds of that are never zero.

[Yamanashi 3,690]

46 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's hard to tell what you mean because the link only includes guys who didn't get promoted out of juryo. In theory, all of these could be against the numbers.

Unless I'm being dense. The odds of that are never zero.

Other than a patch in the 1990's, J2e with 9-6 goes to Makuuchi (22/23 since 2000).  Also, 23/25 from J3w since 2000.

@Suwihuto has specified a Juryo slot in the second basho, so of course it yields the 31 (out of 156) times the rikishi wasn't promoted.  But only three out of 48 since 2000, when we might expect that the rules are similar to today's.

[Katooshu 3,089]

Well, if Asa is in juryo next basho we know who's going to win that yusho............Ochiai 

[Reonito 1,308]

26 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Well, if Asa is in juryo next basho we know who's going to win that yusho............Ochiai 

Seriously, I am so pumped to see that bout!