Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[Seiyashi 4,068]

17 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I think they'll send them and Tomokaze up to juryo on day 15 to fight the incumbents who still need a win (and there will be at least 3, even if Tsushimanada, Terutsuyoshi, Takakento, and Chiyosakae all win tomorrow), so either they win to open more slots, or they lose to (probably) fall behind Ochiai (or, in the case of Tamashoho and Tomokaze, out of the promotion queue entirely).

What about Tsukahara in that schema?

I'm thinking Ochiai and Tokushōryū speak for Okinoumi and Kaishō's slots, then Tsukahara, Tamashōhō, and Tomokaze are sent up in exchange bouts against jūryō incumbents for the jūryō berths.

[Yamanashi 3,669]

48 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Azumaryu in the makuuchi arasoi after 13 days is the sort of thing that would normally belong in the ridiculous predictions thread!

You beat me to it.

OK, "first yusho in first KK Makuuchi basho" thread?

Edited January 20, 2023 by Yamanashi

[dingo 1,100]

Reading this thread right now made me realise more strongly than before just how slim the pickings at the top of makuuchi have really gotten. In the "good old times" if one yokozuna was missing there would usually be at least another to pick up the slack, followed by a pair or more of tough and hungry ozeki ready to make short work of any other contenders. Now everything just rests on Takakeisho's shoulders and while he doesn't seem too fazed by the responsibility, last year's yusho free-for-all made it clear that he can't carry the entire yokozuna-ozeki burden on his own. I know I'm probably a year or so late with my realisation but I guess I'm getting tired of seeing hiramaku rikishi in the yusho arasoi a few days before the end of the basho. Doesn't look like there's a way out in the near future either. 

Sorry for the offtopic rant. 

[Akinomaki 39,476]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

In case only 2 slots become available, wouldn't Tamashoho and Tokushoryu (with a win) have adavantage over Ochiai?

Tamashoho with 4-3 would have priority in any case, also over a 7-0 from a regular ms15 if only 1 spot is available. We only know that a m1w with simple kachikoshi had the advantage over ms15TD 7-0 Shimoda, how they'd handle this case with a 5-2 from m2w would remain to be seen - but I guess we will have more than 2 spots. Some papers had called Ochiai's promotion sure if he wins one more before he won, now they all just call it highly likely.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Seiyashi 4,068]

I don't suppose there's been any word on Tochinoshin? Mainly because I'm wondering if he'll choose to retire rather than fight back from jūryō.

[Gurowake 3,872]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

In case only 2 slots become available, wouldn't Tamashoho and Tokushoryu (with a win) have adavantage over Ochiai?

Tamashoho, definitely.  That's why I didn't say anything about him, because he obviously is first in line if he wins.  I agree Tokushoryu with a win is a very strong case that might bump out Ochiai as well, though I'm less certain.

[Kashunowaka 300]

I think that Takarafuji has a good chance of staying in makuuchi even with two more losses, since the M17e slot is quite likely to reappear.

[Suwihuto 125]

3 hours ago, dingo said:

Reading this thread right now made me realise more strongly than before just how slim the pickings at the top of makuuchi have really gotten. In the "good old times" if one yokozuna was missing there would usually be at least another to pick up the slack, followed by a pair or more of tough and hungry ozeki ready to make short work of any other contenders. Now everything just rests on Takakeisho's shoulders and while he doesn't seem too fazed by the responsibility, last year's yusho free-for-all made it clear that he can't carry the entire yokozuna-ozeki burden on his own. I know I'm probably a year or so late with my realisation but I guess I'm getting tired of seeing hiramaku rikishi in the yusho arasoi a few days before the end of the basho. Doesn't look like there's a way out in the near future either. 

Sorry for the offtopic rant. 

I suppose we were spoilt for the past fifteen years with a raft of strong fighters almost all of the time. However, it looks to me like there are finally some youngsters who will be ready sooner than we might expect to finally clear some of the thirty-something journeymen out of the way, and establish a new order.

[Yamanashi 3,669]

33 minutes ago, Suwihuto said:

I guess I'm getting tired of seeing hiramaku rikishi in the yusho arasoi a few days before the end of the basho.

Well, they did all they could: 8 rikishi in the S and K ranks.  Maybe from now on they can reshuffle the ranks at day 8 and put the top scorers in San'yaku to make them look genki.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't suppose there's been any word on Tochinoshin? Mainly because I'm wondering if he'll choose to retire rather than fight back from jūryō.

His mansion in Georgia will not build itself. He will go for that sekitori cash for as long as he can. 

[Koorifuu 858]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

In sandanme, sandanme journeyman Kaizen marks a return from injury to his usual stomping grounds with a career best 7-0. He got as high as a KK at Ms55w before seemingly becoming hit by injury, sitting out 3 basho in the middle of last year. Here's hoping this yūshō is a sign of better things to come.

Last basho's jonokuchi winner Takerufuji won in jonidan to start his ōzumo career with a 14-0 record. No doubt Ack and co will be tracking this young man for some time to come.

A couple of extra notes about Day 13 for those divisions!

• Sandanme

Kaizen's yusho was completed against Kototebakari's former high school colleague Wakanosho, who had quickly risen up the ranks only to receive a wake up call in makushita two months ago. Nevertheless, a 6-1 from sd5 is going to put him in a relatively comfortable (career high) makushita spot.

Kaizen's yusho means he'll be fast tracked to a slot close to where he was before injury hit in Haru last year.

• Jonidan

Takerufuji vanquished a formidable foe in Daiseizan - Sokokurai's protégé who had a 18-3 career record & a sd10 spot when forced to have surgery on his hand.
This is undoubtedly a testament that Takerufuji is likely to be at a decent makushita level already, and an early favourite for Haru's sandanme yusho.

Earlier in the day, 6-0 Ikazuchido had already failed on his attempt to preemptively force a senshuraku playoff, falling to 5-1 journeyman Asakoga.
It was nevertheless a clearly improved performance from the half-Nigerian, who's still learning the trade and might continue to impress as his progression moves along.

 

[Gurowake 3,872]

20 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Is there a magical line between Ms5 and Ms6? 

Check out Aki 2019.  There's definitely a line there.  Maybe Churanoumi could get in with a 6-1 there over Akiseyama, but a 5-2 was not good enough to beat a 4-3 by the next-highest ranked rikishi when the line was being crossed.

[Gurowake 3,872]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If all goes badly for the makuuchi incumbents and well for the jūryō joi, we could see a new record set for jūryō -> makuuchi promotions in unexceptional times

In order to get to 8 demotions, you'd have to have a 7-8 Takarafuji among them.  However, there are only 7 possible Juryo rikishi with promotable records, and I don't think someone with a record that's not by-the-numbers promotable replaces him, especially since it would be no better than Enho at 9-6 J4w, which I don't think pushes down a minimally demotable rikishi.  I don't think possible shrinking of sanyaku would play a role here though.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

In order to get to 8 demotions, you'd have to have a 7-8 Takarafuji among them.  However, there are only 7 possible Juryo rikishi with promotable records, and I don't think someone with a record that's not by-the-numbers promotable replaces him, especially since it would be no better than Enho at 9-6 J4w, which I don't think pushes down a minimally demotable rikishi.  I don't think possible shrinking of sanyaku would play a role here though.

This, but also, I don't think it's going to even go that far. If Tsurugisho loses out and Enho wins out, Enho calculates to J1W and Tsurugisho to J2E. I would wager that's not enough to get Enho promoted ahead of Tsuru. Same with Tohakuryu if he finishes 9-6. Of course, there are ways for Tsuru to get demoted and either or both of the others to be promoted, but this is likely the last decision if we're looking at seven potential promotions, and I don't think it favors the juryo guys.

[Reonito 1,294]

15 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This, but also, I don't think it's going to even go that far. If Tsurugisho loses out and Enho wins out, Enho calculates to J1W and Tsurugisho to J2E. I would wager that's not enough to get Enho promoted ahead of Tsuru. Same with Tohakuryu if he finishes 9-6. Of course, there are ways for Tsuru to get demoted and either or both of the others to be promoted, but this is likely the last decision if we're looking at seven potential promotions, and I don't think it favors the juryo guys.

6-9 at M15 used to be pretty much a guarantee of demotion, but in 5 of the past 6 instances, the wrestler stayed in makuuchi, so without looking through them in detail, it likely would take a strong promotion claim to push him down

[Akinomaki 39,476]

Asanoyama won't get promoted even if he wins tomorrow, only four spots open so far and four with promotable records in front of him. 

[Hankegami 412]

21 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Asanoyama won't get promoted even if he wins tomorrow, only four spots open so far and four with promotable records in front of him. 

If I did my math correctly, it's all up to Bushozan's result tomorrow. Asanoyama can cap with a J-1w claim, and three wrestlers above him can certainly do matter than that no matter what (Hokuseiho, Kinbozan, Daishoho). Other two are now out of contention (Tohakuryu, Chiyonokuni). This means that the fourth spot will go either to Bushozan or Asanoyama, and the former has a better claim ATM. However, if Bushozan goes 8-7 tomorrow he will finish with a J0w claim, and could be jumped over by Asanoyama. There are plenty of precedents for a J1w not being promoted with a 8-7 (my query). But again, it's all up for Bushozan to lose.

[Hakuryuho 334]

41 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

If I did my math correctly, it's all up to Bushozan's result tomorrow. Asanoyama can cap with a J-1w claim, and three wrestlers above him can certainly do matter than that no matter what (Hokuseiho, Kinbozan, Daishoho). Other two are now out of contention (Tohakuryu, Chiyonokuni). This means that the fourth spot will go either to Bushozan or Asanoyama, and the former has a better claim ATM. However, if Bushozan goes 8-7 tomorrow he will finish with a J0w claim, and could be jumped over by Asanoyama. There are plenty of precedents for a J1w not being promoted with a 8-7 (my query). But again, it's all up for Bushozan to lose.

One thing to consider is the fact that Asanoyama quite possibly isn't in the Sumo kyokai's good graces at the moment,
which could have an effect when it comes to his ranking on the Haru banzuke.

[Akinomaki 39,476]

2 hours ago, Hankegami said:

If I did my math correctly, it's all up to Bushozan's result tomorrow. Asanoyama can cap with a J-1w claim, and three wrestlers above him can certainly do matter than that no matter what (Hokuseiho, Kinbozan, Daishoho). Other two are now out of contention (Tohakuryu, Chiyonokuni). This means that the fourth spot will go either to Bushozan or Asanoyama, and the former has a better claim ATM. However, if Bushozan goes 8-7 tomorrow he will finish with a J0w claim, and could be jumped over by Asanoyama. There are plenty of precedents for a J1w not being promoted with a 8-7 (my query). But again, it's all up for Bushozan to lose.

They won't pass over a j1 with kachikoshi for one so far down banzuke, the pure math doesn't include the air resistance on the way up the banzuke

[Koorifuu 858]

Am I wrong in assuming that Tsukahara's and Tamashoho's exchange bouts vs. Takakento and Terutsuyoshi are good news for Ochiai?

If we take those two bouts as a separate event and think of it as a race between Tomokaze, Tokushoryu and Ochiai for Okinoumi's and Kaisho's slots... then Ochiai is likely to be 2nd in that reduced queue at worst (if Tokushoryu wins).

Please let me know if this logic is faulty;

- 5-2 ms2w Tokushoryu

- 7-0 ms15TD Ochiai

- 4-3 ms2e Tomokaze

- 4-3 ms2w Tokushoryu

Close but no cigar regardless for hypothetically victorious Tochikamiyama and Fujiseiun. With a theoretical 6-1 Tokihayate also needing mass intai.

EDIT: Thank you @Gurowake on your reply below. I've completely ignored Chiyosakae here and should probably stick to my forté; unadulterated sass.

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Koorifuu

[Asashosakari 18,644]

4 hours ago, Hakuryuho said:

One thing to consider is the fact that Asanoyama quite possibly isn't in the Sumo kyokai's good graces at the moment,
which could have an effect when it comes to his ranking on the Haru banzuke.

I dunno if they'll want to hand him a second juryo yusho opportunity if there's a reasonable avenue available to put him in makuuchi.

[Gurowake 3,872]

3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Am I wrong in assuming that Tsukahara's and Tamashoho's exchange bouts vs. Takakento and Terutsuyoshi are good news for Ochiai?

If we take those two bouts as a separate event and think of it as a race between Tomokaze, Tokushoryu and Ochiai for Okinoumi's and Kaisho's slots... then Ochiai is likely to be 2nd in that reduced queue at worst (if Tokushoryu wins).

Please let me know if this logic is faulty;

- 5-2 ms2w Tokushoryu

- 7-0 ms15TD Ochiai

- 4-3 ms2e Tomokaze

- 4-3 ms2w Tokushoryu

Close but no cigar regardless for hypothetically victorious Tochikamiyama and Fujiseiun. With a theoretical 6-1 Tokihayate also needing mass intai.

 

One thing to consider is that they were pretty much forced by their previous choices to put one 3-3 and Tsukahara into Juryo, and then either Tokushoryu would face Fujiseiun or they'd both go into Juryo.  The latter both going into Juryo doesn't make much sense because there's exactly 2 rikishi on the bubble, though they could have put Fujiseiun against a sure-demotion since I don't think he has a chance at promotion, and Tokushoryu against someone sure to stay in Juryo, though it's less clear at first glance that he'll be promoted even if he loses.  Even if it does shake out that Tokushoryu is a sure promotion, why would they even bother in this situation putting them into Juryo?  Tochikamiyama is also invalid to go up to Juryo since the remaining 3-3s already fought, so the choice is really between Tamashoho and Tomokaze.  It makes the most sense to force Tamashoho to make his own spot, since he's definitely guaranteed to fill the spot he opens, and can't be promoted unless he wins.  Thus the choice of matches really can't be seen to mean anything, as they were basically forced.

So where does that leave us?  There are clearly 3 spots available now (Okinoumi, Chiyosakae, and Kaisho).  Let's assume the other two spots don't open up (Tsukahara loses).  At that point the non-Ochiai queue until we get 3 sure results looks like:

Tokushoryu with a win
Tomokaze with a win
Tokushoryu with a loss (sure result 1)
Tochikamiyama with a win (sure result 2)
Tsukahara (sure result 3)

In this situation it should be clear that Ochiai is ahead of Tsukahara (5-2) (at very least), so it's not looking possible for Ochiai to get bumped out in this scenario.  If we then look at the scenarios when more slots open, that can't make it any harder for Ochiai, so he should be getting promoted regardless.  That also seems to indicate that Tokushoryu is a sure-promotion and Fujiseiun a sure non-promotion.  Tsukahara should also be the one to get the spot he opens, since he would be a guaranteed promotion if it were not for Ochiai, and thus next in queue if a spot opens due to an additional retirement were he to lose, so he's clearly getting that spot when he wins.   It also suggests that Tochikamiyama gets in with a win, so his match is a promotion match.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Gurowake

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

5 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Other two are now out of contention (Tohakuryu, Chiyonokuni). 

Chiyonokuni with a win (11-4) should be promotable by the numbers.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

22 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

.

Another update

 

Makuuchi -> Juryo

Okinoumi *

Chiyomaru 3-12

Chiyomaru 4-11

Tochinoshin 2-3-10

Ichinojo 0-0-15

Chiyomaru 5-10

Oho 1-14

Mitoryu 5-10

Tsurugisho 5-10

Chiyomaru 6-9

Oho 2-13

Mitoryu 6-9

Tsurugisho 6-9

Takarafuji 7-8

Oho 3-12

Juryo -> Makuuchi

Kinbozan 14-1

Kinbozan 13-2

Daishoho 13-2

Kinbozan 12-3

Bushozan 10-5

Hokuseiho 10-5

Tohakuryu 11-4

Daishoho 12-3

Kinbozan 11-4

Chiyonokuni 12-3

Bushozan 9-6

Hokuseiho 9-6

Tohakuryu 10-5

Daishoho 11-4

Asanoyama 14-1

Chiyonokuni 11-4

Bushozan 8-7

Hokuseiho 8-7

Tohakuryu 9-6

Enho 9-6

Daishoho 10-5

Asanoyama 13-2

Juryo -> Makushita

Okinoumi *

Kaisho 3-12

Kaisho 4-11

Chiyosakae 3-12

Takakento 4-11

Kaisho 5-10

Chiyosakae 4-11

Tsushimanada 6-9

Takakento 5-10

Terutsuyoshi 4-11

Kaisho 6-9

Chiyosakae 5-10

Tsushimanada 7-8

Takakento 6-9

Terutsuyoshi 5-10

Kitanowaka 4-11 

Makushita -> Juryo

Tokushoryu 5-2

Tamashoho 4-3

Tsukahara 6-1

Ochiai 7-0

Tomokaze 4-3

Tokushoryu 4-3

Tokihayate 6-1

Tochikamiyama 4-3

Tsukahara 5-2

Fujiseiun 5-2

Edited January 21, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama
Formatting

[Gurowake 3,872]

5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Tokihayate 6-1

Tochikamiyama 4-3

There is no reason to believe that this is accurate other than the numbers seem to work out, as Makushita promotions work entirely differently than sekitori promotions.  6-1 Tokihayate will almost certainly not be promoted ahead of 4-3 Tochikamiyama, even if the former would be higher on the banzuke if they both remained in Makushita.  They heavily favor for Juryo promotion those above the Ms5-Ms6 line that's been mentioned.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Gurowake