Basho Talk - Nagoya Basho 2016 +++ Spoiler Alert! +++

[Dwale 419]

And Harumafuji does it. Congratulations to him. I would rather a Kisenosato win, but Harumafuji's certainly a fine wrestler and deserves it.

But for now, Kisenosato takes home "Best Eyebrows" and still has the all-time record. I feel like this was probably his best chance, but with cracks showing in Hakuho's invincible facade, it's not inconceivable he might make yokozuna at some future point. I hope so. It's frustrating, because while he's a cut above the rest of the ozeki lineup, he seems to lack just that little extra something the yokozuna have.

And Takanoiwa turns the tables on Yoshikaze. That three way play-off would've been a sight, but alas. Guess he'll leapfrog way up the banzuke. Congratulations to him as well.

Yeah! Terunofuji managed. Good on him. It's been a while since he had a great tournament, but I'm sure that's a temporary state of affairs.

Takayasu also finishing strong with a pretty authoritative throw. So, has he leveled up after all? Perhaps, I would certainly like to think so, but that answer will come in time.

Takarafuji- No.

And wow, Ura managed 11-4. Not shabby at all, especially with his ankle fragged.

[rzombie1988 157]

I still believe Kisenosato will get a tournament win somewhere down the line, but I don't know if it's going to be when he could be Yokozuna.

The facts are he's doing the best sumo of his career along with his run in 2013, which I believe was probably a bit more competitive. This is the best 3 tournament win record he's ever had. His 12-3's are Yokozuna worthy. Yes he's choking still, but in the end, he's one loss off. Hakuho is declining, Harumafuji has injury/consistency problems, Kakuryu's showing that he is not able to get Yokozuna scores consistently, Kotoshogiku has mental and style issues, Terunofuji may never be healed 100% and Goeido isn't even in the running. He should be able to slip one through someday. He should consider going to a sports psychologist to get the choking out of his head. This really was the perfect opportunity though.

Edited July 24, 2016 by rzombie1988

[Akinomaki 40,038]

Did NHK expect Yoshikaze to win that bout.

Surely Takanoiwa should have been in the interview booth!

Sansho interview. Takanoiwa had the chance for a play-off and couldn't be interviewed at that time. His sansho interview was at the end of the yusho ceremony. Edited July 24, 2016 by Akinomaki

[Atenzan 1,074]

Kisenosato might be setting some new most Jun-Yusho without a Yusho won records.

He already has.

http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=35496&p=310884

[Gooner 39]

Can ozeki win a special prize?

Edited July 24, 2016 by Gooner

[Nantonoyama 247]

Can ozeki win a special prize?

No, only sekiwake, komusubi and maegashira rikishi can

[Morningstar 118]

Are you confused as to who is who, and what exactly is going on here? There are people in the Kyokai who want to promote Kisenosato, presumably because he's shown himself to clearly be at the same level as at least Kakuryu and close to Harumafuji, far above the other 3 Ozeki, he was previously stopped from winning two in a row solely by the greatest ever posting a better score and is close to winning again, and they sorta would like a Japanese Yokozuna.

The Bold is factually & logicly incorrect. Kakuryu is the better Rikishi as he has won a Yusho twice now. When Kisenosato starts winning Yusho's then you can say he is near Kakuryu in level. And, to even compare him to Harumafuji is to stretch the truth to a near Trumpian level of cognitive dissonance.

[rhyen 1,823]

Are you confused as to who is who, and what exactly is going on here? There are people in the Kyokai who want to promote Kisenosato, presumably because he's shown himself to clearly be at the same level as at least Kakuryu and close to Harumafuji, far above the other 3 Ozeki, he was previously stopped from winning two in a row solely by the greatest ever posting a better score and is close to winning again, and they sorta would like a Japanese Yokozuna.

The Bold is factually & logicly incorrect. Kakuryu is the better Rikishi as he has won a Yusho twice now. When Kisenosato starts winning Yusho's then you can say he is near Kakuryu in level. And, to even compare him to Harumafuji is to stretch the truth to a near Trumpian level of cognitive dissonance.

Tell that to the journalists who are writing all these wonderful columns about Kisenosato before and everyday during the honbasho.

Gurowake is sort of vocalizing the sentimental drivel that the media and "NSK" personnel have for a Japanese Yokozuna (since Kotoshogiku already won a Yusho in Hatsu basho) that they are willing to lower Yusho/Yusho equivalent (from Kakuryu's 14-1 Doten & Yusho) to Kisenosato's permanent tsunatori run (3 Jun-Yushos behind a 15-0, 14-1, 13-2).

[Gurowake 4,012]

Are you confused as to who is who, and what exactly is going on here? There are people in the Kyokai who want to promote Kisenosato, presumably because he's shown himself to clearly be at the same level as at least Kakuryu and close to Harumafuji, far above the other 3 Ozeki, he was previously stopped from winning two in a row solely by the greatest ever posting a better score and is close to winning again, and they sorta would like a Japanese Yokozuna.

The Bold is factually & logicly incorrect. Kakuryu is the better Rikishi as he has won a Yusho twice now. When Kisenosato starts winning Yusho's then you can say he is near Kakuryu in level. And, to even compare him to Harumafuji is to stretch the truth to a near Trumpian level of cognitive dissonance.

When I look at all of their performances, not just how many Yusho they have won, Kisenosato appears to be the better rikishi compared to Kakuryu, and is not that far behind Harumafuji. Yes, he doesn't have any Yusho, but that's not relevant to the question of how strong a rikishi he is from my perspective. Is he ever going to get promoted without a yusho? No way. But that won't stop me from thinking that in general Kisenosato will tend to win on average more matches than Kakuryu and only slightly less than Harumafuji. The amount of calculation that went in to determining these relative power levels is by no means insubstantial, and the ability of my calculations to predict the winners of matches is on par with the best predictors in the community. That Kakuryu's wins were clumped better than Kisenosato's in order to get him 2 Yusho and 2 playoff losses, and that Harumafuji's have been clumped even better to get him 8 Yusho, while Kisenosato's total has never been enough for a Yusho, in no way, in my opinion, makes him a far inferior rikishi. You are entitled to have the opinion that the strength of rikishi is solely based on their ability to string together enough wins for a Yusho. It is a perfectly reasonable way to assess things if Yusho are all you care about. But I care about determining how many wins each rikishi is going to get each tournament and how likely they are to win each match. From that perspective, I have determined the relative power levels as given previously, and see absolutely no cognitive dissonance.

[rzombie1988 157]

Are you confused as to who is who, and what exactly is going on here? There are people in the Kyokai who want to promote Kisenosato, presumably because he's shown himself to clearly be at the same level as at least Kakuryu and close to Harumafuji, far above the other 3 Ozeki, he was previously stopped from winning two in a row solely by the greatest ever posting a better score and is close to winning again, and they sorta would like a Japanese Yokozuna.

The Bold is factually & logicly incorrect. Kakuryu is the better Rikishi as he has won a Yusho twice now. When Kisenosato starts winning Yusho's then you can say he is near Kakuryu in level. And, to even compare him to Harumafuji is to stretch the truth to a near Trumpian level of cognitive dissonance.

This is one of the things I like about talking about sumo - there are some great stats out there to prove points.

Kakuryu is of a higher rank and has won more titles. Kak has won 55 in his last 6. Kisenosato has won 68 in his last 6. Even if Kak had not been injured this tournament, Kisenosato would still have the leg up on his performances in the last 6 bashos, which is a full sumo year. So statistically, Kisenosato is better right now, but title and rank wise, Kakuryu is better.

Edited July 24, 2016 by rzombie1988

[Asashosakari 18,959]

That Kakuryu's wins were clumped better than Kisenosato's in order to get him 2 Yusho and 2 playoff losses, and that Harumafuji's have been clumped even better to get him 8 Yusho, while Kisenosato's total has never been enough for a Yusho, in no way, in my opinion, makes him a far inferior rikishi.

His greater consistency both aids and haunts Kisenosato. Taking the really long view: If he never makes it to yokozuna, could he have a shot at setting a new all-time win record? (I suppose it depends on how far Hakuho will be pushing on beyond Kaio's 1047.)

High-variance rikishi such as Harumafuji have one problem: Once they start declining, their low-end performance can quickly dip below acceptable levels, even if their average performance may technically still be good enough. Kisenosato on the other hand might stay good enough to average 9 wins per basho with few makekoshi for years to come. He could be hitting 1000 wins by the time he's 36, which would be well ahead of Kaio's pace.

[Dapeng 233]

Are you confused as to who is who, and what exactly is going on here? There are people in the Kyokai who want to promote Kisenosato, presumably because he's shown himself to clearly be at the same level as at least Kakuryu and close to Harumafuji, far above the other 3 Ozeki, he was previously stopped from winning two in a row solely by the greatest ever posting a better score and is close to winning again, and they sorta would like a Japanese Yokozuna.

The Bold is factually & logicly incorrect. Kakuryu is the better Rikishi as he has won a Yusho twice now. When Kisenosato starts winning Yusho's then you can say he is near Kakuryu in level. And, to even compare him to Harumafuji is to stretch the truth to a near Trumpian level of cognitive dissonance.

When I look at all of their performances, not just how many Yusho they have won, Kisenosato appears to be the better rikishi compared to Kakuryu, and is not that far behind Harumafuji. Yes, he doesn't have any Yusho, but that's not relevant to the question of how strong a rikishi he is from my perspective. Is he ever going to get promoted without a yusho? No way. But that won't stop me from thinking that in general Kisenosato will tend to win on average more matches than Kakuryu and only slightly less than Harumafuji. The amount of calculation that went in to determining these relative power levels is by no means insubstantial, and the ability of my calculations to predict the winners of matches is on par with the best predictors in the community. That Kakuryu's wins were clumped better than Kisenosato's in order to get him 2 Yusho and 2 playoff losses, and that Harumafuji's have been clumped even better to get him 8 Yusho, while Kisenosato's total has never been enough for a Yusho, in no way, in my opinion, makes him a far inferior rikishi. You are entitled to have the opinion that the strength of rikishi is solely based on their ability to string together enough wins for a Yusho. It is a perfectly reasonable way to assess things if Yusho are all you care about. But I care about determining how many wins each rikishi is going to get each tournament and how likely they are to win each match. From that perspective, I have determined the relative power levels as given previously, and see absolutely no cognitive dissonance.

Good point but not all correct. An ozeki rikishi is not promoted based on how long he may stay as ozeki but based on how high his peak performance is. Harumafuji's peak was two consecutive zensho-yusho that resulted in promotion to yokozuna. Kakuryu's peak (until now) was two consecutive 14-wins bashoes with one yusho-equivalent and one yusho. Kise's best peak performance until now was two consecutive non-yusho 13-wins bashes and never once reached 14 wins. Clearly, Kise's peak until now is the lowest among the top four.

[Dapeng 233]

That Kakuryu's wins were clumped better than Kisenosato's in order to get him 2 Yusho and 2 playoff losses, and that Harumafuji's have been clumped even better to get him 8 Yusho, while Kisenosato's total has never been enough for a Yusho, in no way, in my opinion, makes him a far inferior rikishi.

His greater consistency both aids and haunts Kisenosato. Taking the really long view: If he never makes it to yokozuna, could he have a shot at setting a new all-time win record? (I suppose it depends on how far Hakuho will be pushing on beyond Kaio's 1047.)

High-variance rikishi such as Harumafuji have one problem: Once they start declining, their low-end performance can quickly dip below acceptable levels, even if their average performance may technically still be good enough. Kisenosato on the other hand might stay good enough to average 9 wins per basho with few makekoshi for years to come. He could be hitting 1000 wins by the time he's 36, which would be well ahead of Kaio's pace.

A yokozuna is expected to retire if he can't consistently win more than 10 (?), but an ozeki is allowed to stay as long as he can escape demotion. It wouldn't be a surprise if Kise ever lasts longer or even wins more bouts than Harumafuji or Hakuho.

[Gurowake 4,012]

Good point but not all correct. An ozeki rikishi is not promoted based on how long he may stay as ozeki but based on how high his peak performance is. Harumafuji's peak was two consecutive zensho-yusho that resulted in promotion to yokozuna. Kakuryu's peak (until now) was two consecutive 14-wins bashoes with one yusho-equivalent and one yusho. Kise's best peak performance until now was two consecutive non-yusho 13-wins bashes and never once reached 14 wins. Clearly, Kise's peak until now is the lowest among the top four.

I didn't say that Kisenosato deserved to be promoted. I said in a previous post various reasons why people in the NSK may want him promoted, and outlined reasons why that's not an entirely stupid point of view, but it has never been my opinion was that Kisenosato deserves to be promoted without a yusho. That the banzuke rankings don't reflect the strength of the rikishi is not anything particularly unusual; it's more or less par for the course. If there was any sort of desire to use the banzuke to reflect the true rankings of the rikishi, they would use a completely different method for determining it.

[Dapeng 233]

Next basho will be more tough for Kise: there will be two kadoban ozeki needing wins to escape demotion; a Kakuryu needing wins to revive; a Harumafuji needing wins to show his July yusho not accidental. Above all, an angry Hakuho is determined to kick everyone's ass......

It's good that Teru escaped demotion or else he will need 10 wins to regain his ozeki rank. In addition, Takayasu has started his ozeki-run and will need 11 wins.

I expect a more exciting basho in Sept.

[ScreechingOwl 343]

A yokozuna is expected to retire if he can't consistently win more than 10 (?), but an ozeki is allowed to stay as long as he can escape demotion. It wouldn't be a surprise if Kise ever lasts longer or even wins more bouts than Harumafuji or Hakuho.

Kisenosato just turned 30. Assuming that he never gets promoted to yokozuna, it would seem probable that his career will last longer than those of Hakuho (who is 31 years and 4 months old) and Harumafuji (who is 32 years and 3 months old). Career victories are another matter, however. Hakuho's makuuchi record is 903-159, Harumafuji's makuuchi record is 642-343 and Kisenosato's makuuchi record is 642-408.

Since Harumafuji and Kisenosato have the same number of makuuchi victories and Kisenosato is more than 2 years younger and seems a bit healthier (Harumafuji has some chronic ankle injury/ies) it is quite likely he will finish his career with more victories. It's quite a different matter with Hakuho though. If Hakuho retired tomorrow it would take Kisenosato anywhere from 4-6 years (depending on how you want to calculate his winning percentage: for his makuuchi career it's 61%; for the last five years it's been higher, however, as he moves into his 30s it's likely to slow down increasingly with age). If Hakuho wrestles another 2 years (and he could well wrestle longer - he's given contradictory statements ab out how long he'd like to see his career last) it will probably take Kisenosato 7 years to surpass his win total - which means he would have to wrestle well into his 39th year. That's assuming a lot of good health and good luck. It's certainly possible, but seems to me to be quite unlikely.

[dingo 1,212]

Taking a break from the Kisenosato discussion (or?), a lot of times people here mention how being defeated by a henka is somehow the target rikishi's fault because it was blindingly obvious that a henka was coming. I think this tends to be a case where hindsight is 20/20. My impression is that a henka is successful much more often than it is read and thwarted. If it really were so easy to know each time an opponent is going to henka, it simply would not be a viable tactic and we would see much less henka attemtps, with most of them failing.

If one thinks about the preparations a rikishi goes through before the bout starts, the amount of limelight he is in on the dohyo and the total focus that is needed at the tachiai, one simply cannot afford to start second-guessing the moment before. It simply isn't possible to climb on the dohyo 100% convinced that the opponent is going to henka. It's almost always a last-moment guess. A rikishi mounts the dohyo with a plan and if one starts thinking at the last moment "is my opponent gonna henka? Surely he's not... but maybe? Or maybe not..." then one has already lost the bout in advance because focus is lost and the original gameplan probably with it.

If rikishi would climb on the dohyo waiting for a henka, we would see a lot more careful tachiais, yet we do not. And I for one do not want to see each bout in sumo starting with a careful tachiai just in case there's a henka waiting. Moreover, a careful tachiai exposes you to a strong charge, which is always also encouraged by the sumo mentality -- forward-moving sumo is always the ideal. A henka is not, and that's one more reason why it tends to succeed -- a rikishi usually expects the opponent to move forward with vigor.

So there's my two cents on henka, sorry for the rant. Just wanted to point out that in my opinion most of the time it's actually very difficult to spot on the dohyo whether a henka is coming. It's much easier watching video replays at home.

[littlebutts 14]

A thoroughly enjoyable basho. Many thanks to Kintamayama for his renewed efforts putting together the daily videos.

I would also guess that Hakuho is riddled with injuries and may take next basho off to put himself back together a bit. The grimace by Harumafuji after his bout with Hakuho was over may suggest he's in a similar condition, though it seems to me that Harumafuji is a bit more vocal about his injuries and pain than Hakuho is. That being said, all of these guys play their injuries pretty close to their chests. I have to admit though, what impresses me the most about Hakuho and Harumafuji (and maybe this is something that Kisenosato is lacking) is their ability to perform under huge amounts of pressure, both internal and external. Performing while injured seems to be a very valuable skill in sumo indeed, and one that likely takes a lot of really unenjoyable practice. I've broken all the toes on one foot before and continued working a manual labor job and it was not a whole lot of fun. I can't even imagine jumping onto the dohyo to push around dudes who are well over 300 lbs. That takes a certain mental toughness that some people just can't muster (Endo...)

[Morningstar 118]

I really enjoyed watching Kitaharima this Basho. Even though he lost more than he won, all his matches had spirit. That and I like rooting for the little guy. ;-)
I hope he does not fall too far down into Juryo, and we get to see him again in the top division. I look forward to seeing his and Ura's match in September.

It says something about Kisenosato, that with half the other top Rikishi injured or otherwise out of the tournament, that he still could not take home the prize.

I hope Hakuho recovers soon. Beating him in a straight up fight, without him being injured is every up and coming Rikishi's dream. It takes something out of the achievement, to do so when he is hurt this badly.

Harumafuji demonstrated once again why he is one of the best Yokozuna around. Even when he is clearly not at 100%, he still managed to seal the deal and come home with the top prize. I love watching his bouts, and hope he gets back to 100% soon and stays that way for many years.

I would love to see some new blood in the Ozeki ranks. I hope Takayasu has a good Basho in September to have a chance at promotion. But, I think that one or more of the current Ozeki will have to vacate their spot before we have some turn over in the top ranks.

All in all, this was an entertaining tournament. I hope to see more healthy Rikishi next time. But, more than that, I hope those who are injured take all of the time off they need to come back at 100%. If that means they have to drop in rank severely, then so be it. Their long term health is not worth a short term rank maintenance.

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

To Resume the Kisenosato Discussion, this is from The Japan Times:

Harumafuji’s triumph ended Kisenosato’s hopes of ascending to sumo’s highest rank. Kisenosato, in his third yokozuna promotion bid, entered the 15th and final day at Aichi Prefectural Gymnasium needing a win and a loss by Harumafuji to force a playoff.

Although Kisenosato failed to achieve his lofty goal, he will take his fourth shot at yokozuna promotion in September, according to the director of the Japan Sumo Association’s judging department.

“If he wins a championship (in September), everyone will be satisfied,” sumo elder Nishonoseki said.

Full Article: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2016/07/24/sumo/basho-reports/harumafuji-captures-title-nagoya-basho/

[Benihana 1,913]

Better be remembered as great Ozeki with consistent numbers of wins without a yusho, than as a yokozuna who can't live up to the expectations. But like others said, it's just a mental thing. He is a classic case of the flesh is willing, but the spirit is weak.

Speaking of Ozekis...i hope Goeido finally gets demoted next basho, i won't shed a tear for Terunofuji either and i'm not sure about Kotoshogiku any more. There are other guys out there, who show better potential and just need some more bashos to gain experience or who just have bad luck with injuries.

Now to something completely different: I hoped that Mitakeumi wouldn't fare worse than 5-10 and he landed right on spot. Great basho for someone who is so young an inexperenced. Let's see how he does over the next year. If he stays fit...

[Katooshu 3,179]

I'm not sure if people will generally remember him as a great ozeki without a yusho.

So much discussion about him now is negative and relates to how he's a choker who continually falls short of winning a cup, rather than how he's quite a good ozeki. I hope in time people come to see him in the positive light he deserves (averaging 10+ wins over his ozeki tenure, consistently in the yusho race, regularly beating yokozuna, etc.) rather than focusing so much on his shortcomings. I'm pulling for him to finally take a cup, so he can at least temporarily silence the many people who drone on about him always faltering.

Edited July 24, 2016 by Katooshu

[Tavy 0]

I saw that at the end of Terunofuji's bout he was given a prize that contained 2 arrows. Was this a special prize? Sorry for my ignorance.
BTW NHK World say they will broadcast the next tournament starting on September the 11th.

[Morningstar 118]

I saw that at the end of Terunofuji's bout he was given a prize that contained 2 arrows. Was this a special prize? Sorry for my ignorance.

BTW NHK World say they will broadcast the next tournament starting on September the 11th.

It is a standard part of the last days prizes. The third to last match winner gets arrows, the 2nd to last a Bow String, and the last is given a Bow. One of those ceremonial things that Sumo is so full of. Related to the Bow Twirling Ceremony at the end of each day.

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

Better be remembered as great Ozeki with consistent numbers of wins without a yusho, than as a yokozuna who can't live up to the expectations. But like others said, it's just a mental thing. He is a classic case of the flesh is willing, but the spirit is weak.

Speaking of Ozekis...i hope Goeido finally gets demoted next basho, i won't shed a tear for Terunofuji either and i'm not sure about Kotoshogiku any more. There are other guys out there, who show better potential and just need some more bashos to gain experience or who just have bad luck with injuries.

Now to something completely different: I hoped that Mitakeumi wouldn't fare worse than 5-10 and he landed right on spot. Great basho for someone who is so young an inexperenced. Let's see how he does over the next year. If he stays fit...

Wakanohana III would have been remembered that way, but he is considered a sub-par Yokozuna.

Goeido is firmly back in his Ozekiwake routine. Kotoshogiku may yet decide to hang it up this year. I would like to believe Terunofuji is the 72nd (73rd?) Yokozuna, but ever since that 12-3 D last year, he hasn't been what most want him to be.

(IMO) Ichinojo, Kotoyuki, Shodai, and Mitakeumi and have the YOUTH to make it to Ozeki. Will there skill set match??????