Basho Talk - Aki 2017 (SPOILERS)

[yutarotanaka 104]

#WackyAki #AkiBreaky is in full effect! What a day! So much uncertainty and wildness. Last September 2016 started all this and it is coming full circle. Just an insane basho...

[Washuyama 662]

8 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Tweeted!

For some reason when I read your post (which included quoting Kinta's "Wacky Aki" moniker), I automatically read your Shikona as Wacky-Tacky! 

[Philioyamfugi 378]

Onosho emerging 

[Morty 1,519]

I wouldn't count Shodai out at M5E and a 3:2 record...

[RabidJohn 2,074]

You can't really count anybody in or out when we're only a third of the way through the basho, but certain outcomes are becoming more/less likely.

Of the Y/O, only Goeido looks like he has a shot at the yusho, as he could theorically pull a 14-1 from the Aki wackiness. I think the outcome of his match with Onosho tomorrow will be  decisive.

As the youngest in the division and current leader of the pack, I can understand Moti's assertion that Onosho will choke under the pressure. But how many 21-year-old makuuchi rikishi have 16 years of sumo experience behind them? Onosho does. He's had a lifetime of experience winning at school/regional level, so why should makuuchi really be any different, especially when he looks to have his head in the right place? Everyone he's beaten so far has been ranked above him and he's taken it all in his stride. He hasn't looked at all nervous facing them. Quite the opposite in fact; he comes across as being raring to get at them! I could see that hatsu-kinboshi coming today from before the tachi-ai. (BTW, I propose we start referring to HRF as the Candyman, cos he gives 'em away like sweets!) My only concern with Onosho is that he doesn't let down his guard and start taking silly losses to lower ranked rikishi next week. His only really serious opposition amongst them should be Kotoshogiku and Chiyotairyu. I doubt he'll manage a zensho, but a 12-3 looks well within his grasp atm, and I think he'll be in the mix until the end.

[Atenzan 1,084]

And suddenly the Ounoshou vs Goueidou bout tomorrow is a major feature of the yusho race's early stages. What a time to be alive!

Edited September 14, 2017 by McBugger
sp

[Kintamayama 47,374]

23 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Steak time- I don't believe any of the young ones will yusho. The minute it hits them that they have a real chance, they will fall apart mentally. Starting tomorrow.  I don't believe Harumafuji will finish the basho. If Kotoshougiku's knees hold up, it looks like he will do it. Or Terunofuji. I still believe in Terunofuji.

OK, so four of the five  leaders lost. Either Ounoshou is having a fluke basho, or he's going to be great. Ice flows through his veins, for now. And I still believe in Terunofuji..

[Kintamayama 47,374]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

As the youngest in the division and current leader of the pack, I can understand Moti's assertion that Onosho will choke under the pressure. But how many 21-year-old makuuchi rikishi have 16 years of sumo experience behind them? Onosho does. He's had a lifetime of experience winning at school/regional level, so why should makuuchi really be any different, especially when he looks to have his head in the right place?

Because many before him had similar prior experience and were hailed as the "next thing" and did not deliver. Kushimaumi comes to mind, among many, many others. And doing well at M3 in this particular basho with everyone gone still needs an asterisk. OTOH, I have said (among many wrong things) that Ounoshou will be the star of this basho, before I knew of the kyujos..

Edited September 14, 2017 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama 47,374]

5 hours ago, gijo said:

I'm very sorry for you Kintamayama, but Terunofuji looks very bad..

Yes, I see that now.. Probably out tomorrow. although he is known for going on even with half a leg.

[Bumpkin 438]

Can anyone enlighten us as to the nature of Terunofuji's knee injury? Is it the same injury he's had for years? Or, is it something new? Did he ever have surgery a la Tochinoshin? Or, was it allowed to just "heal" a la Endo?

[Chijanofuji 113]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

You can't really count anybody in or out when we're only a third of the way through the basho, but certain outcomes are becoming more/less likely.

Of the Y/O, only Goeido looks like he has a shot at the yusho, as he could theorically pull a 14-1 from the Aki wackiness. I think the outcome of his match with Onosho tomorrow will be  decisive.

I fully agree. At this point I think the yusho is between Onosho, Goeido and Kotoshogiku. If Goeido wins he would become the favorite (despite him relying too much on henka so far). If Onosho wins I truly believe he can go all the way and is unlikely to falter in the second half of the basho. Sure, he may lose 1, 2 or even 3 bouts and is unlikely to get a zensho yusho, but he really doesn't strike me as someone who will succumb to pressure.

So -for now at least- I am fully on the Onosho bandwagon. In fact I think I may be the bandwagon's driver! 

I put Onosho in my 4-point slot today in Bench Sumo and that got me the win. I also picked him to beat Harumafuji in Sekitori-Toto.

[Chijanofuji 113]

54 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Because many before him had similar prior experience and were hailed as the "next thing" and did not deliver. Kushimaumi comes to mind, among many, many others. And doing well at M3 in this particular basho with everyone gone still needs an asterisk. OTOH, I have said (among many wrong things) that Ounoshou will be the star of this basho, before I knew of the kyujos..

I too saw many contenders (false pretenders even) come and go in the 22 years I have been following Sumo and the last rikishi I could see would become truly great from quite early on was Hakuho.

I'm definitely not yet saying Onosho is as promising as Hakuho was in about 2004 when he had just entered Makuuchi. Many of us could already see by then that Hak was highly likely to become at least an Ozeki. It's much too early to make such bold statements about Onosho. We need to wait at least 1 or 2 more basho before we will know his true potential and he still has a lot to prove this basho and the next.

What I am seeing (and my sister is the one who spotted this first early on 2 basho ago when Onosho made his Makuuchi debut) is that he seems to have a certain something ("je ne c'est quoi") that most rikishi of his age lack. I would call it "ring sense". During his matches it almost seems like his reactions are just that tiny bit quicker than most, that's he watching the other rikishi moving in slow motion and still has ample time to react to whatever move his opponents make against him.

His main problem at this point is probably his small stature, being only 176 cm tall, but so far he's coping well with that.

So there! If I haven's thoroughly jinxed him now he definitely IS the real deal!

Edited September 14, 2017 by Chijanofuji
typo

[Yubinhaad 11,978]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Looks like that is the 14th time that a yokozuna has given up (at least) 3 kinboshi in consecutive bouts. Miyagiyama leads the way with sumo history's only 4-kinboshi streak.

Also interesting: Chiyonoyama lost straight to three maegashira in the middle of a 12-3 yusho!

But the most noteworthy case might be Futabayama who did so directly following the end of his 69-bout winning streak...
 

Also, there are now 38 active rikishi who have won kinboshi. According to my notes that is a new record, surpassing the 37 active winners of 1957 Aki through 1958 Hatsu.

[ALAKTORN 346]

Anyone noticed Ōnoshō jumping up in triumph as he won?

Bad place for Harumafuji to be in. If he loses tomorrow, will he be forced to retire? Or was that just Kakuryū? I don’t remember Haruma’s situation…

Gōeidō’s been slipping through my radar but he’s at 4–1. I still think Harumafuji has a shot at the yūshō if he goes zenshō from here on. Whoever wins tomorrow’s Gōeidō–Ōnoshō bout might be the yūshō winner, and I think Gōeidō will take it. If Ōnoshō proves me wrong then I’ll have to jump on the wagon.

Edited September 14, 2017 by ALAKTORN

[Kintamayama 47,374]

1 hour ago, Chijanofuji said:

What I am seeing (and my sister is the one who spotted this first early on 2 basho ago when Onosho made his Makuuchi debut) is that he seems to have a certain something ("je ne c'est quoi") that most rikishi of his age lack. I would call it "ring sense". During his matches it almost seems like his reactions are just that tiny bit quicker than most, that's he watching the other rikishi moving in slow motion and still has ample time to react to whatever move his opponents make against him.

 

The only reason he caught my attention (after quite a few very mediocre Juryo bashos, so he's actually been around, two years and two months, to be exact, dropping to Makushita for one basho..) is the information that after his Makuuchi promotion he was training like a man possessed, first with Kisenosato before July, head to head, and with Takayasu before this basho- many bouts. And it shows, definitely.

Edited September 14, 2017 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama 47,374]

2 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Can anyone enlighten us as to the nature of Terunofuji's knee injury? Is it the same injury he's had for years? Or, is it something new? Did he ever have surgery a la Tochinoshin? Or, was it allowed to just "heal" a la Endo?

Same injury, aggravated. "I'm OK. I'll be there tomorrow," he said after leaving the hospital where he had an MRI. He was visibly limping.

[Jakusotsu 6,403]

A kyujo by Terunofuji will still enable one Sanyaku matchup each day, but if another of the top dogs withdraws, this would be the first basho since July 2005 without.

[RabidJohn 2,074]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Because many before him had similar prior experience and were hailed as the "next thing" and did not deliver.

I've not seen Onosho being hyped to that extent. I think his fairly unspectacular transition from makushita to makuuchi saw to that.

I've only really seen him tipped as someone to keep an eye on (by your good self, amongst others) since his 2nd makuuchi 10-5 on the trot. You and they were right: he is well worth watching!

[just_some_guy 308]

For what it's worth (about $.02), my money's on Goeido to take the yusho. With no strong Ozeki/yokozunae to contend with I don't see him struggling too much with the others. Giku would be my next pick.

That said, this basho is crazy enough that I'm not ruling anyone out.

[Asashosakari 20,297]

2 hours ago, Chijanofuji said:

What I am seeing (and my sister is the one who spotted this first early on 2 basho ago when Onosho made his Makuuchi debut) is that he seems to have a certain something ("je ne c'est quoi") that most rikishi of his age lack. I would call it "ring sense". During his matches it almost seems like his reactions are just that tiny bit quicker than most, that's he watching the other rikishi moving in slow motion and still has ample time to react to whatever move his opponents make against him.

Interestingly I recall rather the opposite from his juryo days where he lost quite a few bouts in clumsy fashion, often by trying to rush things and getting outmaneuvered at the last moment. I'm hoping the improvements are here to stay.

[Philioyamfugi 378]

Shohozan beating Terinofuji looked like Ishura beating Ichinojo with a lift out

[Asashosakari 20,297]

21 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I've not seen Onosho being hyped to that extent. I think his fairly unspectacular transition from makushita to makuuchi saw to that.

That's more a reflection on how empty most cases of hype are, because they're frequently built on pretty-looking but rather "empty" early records than anything substantial. Onosho did get the "right kind" of hype, attention by people who look a bit closer than that, certainly since mid-2014 or so when he demonstrated that he wasn't going to be stopped by the mid-makushita grind that usually slows down promising middle and high schoolers. Sure, the juryo stint that followed doesn't look that pretty, but the mere fact that he got to have his seasoning period that high up the rankings was noteworthy.

Edited September 14, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Amamaniac 2,092]

14 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Looks like that is the 14th time that a yokozuna has given up (at least) 3 kinboshi in consecutive bouts. Miyagiyama leads the way with sumo history's only 4-kinboshi streak.

Also interesting: Chiyonoyama lost straight to three maegashira in the middle of a 12-3 yusho!

But the most noteworthy case might be Futabayama who did so directly following the end of his 69-bout winning streak...
 

Harumafuji has the distinction of handing out kinboshi like candy at Halloween!  This may well turn out to be a record breaking tournament in this regard.  Given all the wrestlers in the elite ranks who have withdrawn, if Harumafuji stays in the tournament, he will fight 10 Maegashira opponents.  He has already fought four of those ten, and surrendered 3 kinboshi!  At this rate, he will end the tournament having given up around 7 kinboshi.  While I doubt things will get that bad, perhaps us armchair sumo wrestlers might like to predict what Harumafuji's final kinboshi total will be, or how many kinboshi will he surrender before he decides to withdraw himself...  I predict Harumafuji will end up surrendering 5 kinboshi, and may well withdraw at that point.

Kinboshi-streaks aside (thanks Asashosakari), what is the standing "total kinboshi" record for one Yokozuna in a given 15-day tournament?  

 

Edited September 15, 2017 by Amamaniac

[Kintamayama 47,374]

2 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I've not seen Onosho being hyped to that extent. I think his fairly unspectacular transition from makushita to makuuchi saw to that.

I've only really seen him tipped as someone to keep an eye on (by your good self, amongst others) since his 2nd makuuchi 10-5 on the trot. You and they were right: he is well worth watching!

I didn't say he was hyped-just that many a youngster that WAS hyped turned out to be regular. And I only noticed him before Nagoya because of those very intense keiko sessions with Kisenosato which started me "wondring aloud'.

[Katooshu 3,485]

Former amateur star Mitoryu (who as a high schooler lost to Onosho in the finals of the junior Kokutai) seems to be settling into ozumo after a rough debut basho and a 1-2 start back in Nagoya. Now 7 straight wins and going for his KK next match, which is more in line with what I expected from him. Amateur opponent Yago, who Mitoryu beat in the quarterfinals of the 2016 student championships, is yet to find his way in juryo. I recall in the polls section that most (including me) expected Yago to avoid hitting the juryo wall, while pretty much everyone expected Daiseido to hit a block in juryo, but so far it's going the other way. Still 10 matches to go though...

My biggest individual rikishi hope for this basho is that my favourite, Hokutofuji, ends up with a record that gets him promoted to sanyaku. I didn't like the way he pulled so quickly against Yoshikaze today, but 3-2 is solid considering the ranks he's faced. Chiyotairyu , Kotoshogiku, Onosho doing well at around the same rank, so hopefully (for my fanboy reasons) Hokutofuji doesn't end up with another KK non-promotion. Though, as mentioned last basho, staying as a maegashira leaves him with plenty of kinboshi opportunities!

Edited September 14, 2017 by Katooshu