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Basho Talk - Hatsu Basho 2017 ** (SPOILERS)

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You don't get a rope based on past performance. It's the current performance that counts, nothing else.
Win or lose tomorrow he will be on a tsuna run next basho. Defeating Hakuho will make a difference, but if it is good enough for an outright promotion it would have to be truly spectacular.

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Still, the past performance seems to be a factor as well. Otherwise Miyabiyama should have been promoted to Ozeki twice.

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3 hours ago, ryafuji said:

I found it a little frustrating that at the moment Kise wins his first ever yusho we see... the back of his head. Couldn't NHK have got a cameraman in the right position at the crucial moment? 

There is protocol. Kisenosato chose to face backwards. TV crews don't tell the top guys to "turn around". It's always been like that- Asashouryuu made an art of it, Hakuhou did it during his "silent" era. In the end Kisenosato turned around and you could immediately see why he didn't want to turn around-he simply could not speak or connect two words. And maybe he didn't want to be seen crying. He just got up and left the minute he saw he can't control it.

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4 minutes ago, Fukurou said:

I wonder whatever happened to Mrs Uchidate, anyone know?

She often appears in sumo related news searches (because her sumo relation is mentioned always), she's genki - and has been amateur actor in a play recently.

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1 hour ago, Tsubame said:

I am not a fan of an instand yokozuna promotion. With a Yokozuna Kisenosato we will have THREE yokozunae struggling to win a basho. So at least two of them will have a "kind reminder" very basho...

How do you define "struggling to win a basho"?  It seems pretty absurd to claim Kisenosato will be "struggling to win" when he has 5 jun-yusho/yusho in the past six basho.

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I decided to catch up with the tournament today since I had forgotten about it and watched Day 4-today.

Truly unbelieveable. When Kise took his first lost I really thought that was it. Then Hak took another and another.

This boils down to what I've been saying for a long time - Kisenosato needed a perfect storm to make this happen and he finally got it. Hakuho's injured and/or declining, Kakuryu was out, Harumafuji out, Koto kadoban, Terunofuji MK and Goeido had some bad losses early. I figured someday he'd get it, but he needed a situation like he got here.

Credit to him for finally getting the win, but let's be frank - this was the easiest tournament in years to win and he finally did. He deserves the Yokozuna title now since Kakuryu got it under similar circumstances and I don't want to hear a single YDC excuse over it.

Edited by rzombie1988

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23 minutes ago, orandashoho said:

You don't get a rope based on past performance. It's the current performance that counts, nothing else.

If the standard is "two consecutive yusho or the equivalent" then past performance counts by definition.

Edited by K. Sear
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25 minutes ago, orandashoho said:

You don't get a rope based on past performance. It's the current performance that counts, nothing else.
Win or lose tomorrow he will be on a tsuna run next basho. Defeating Hakuho will make a difference, but if it is good enough for an outright promotion it would have to be truly spectacular.

Maybe you wish this was the case, but that simply is not true. Wrestlers who have a strong history clearly have a lower hurdle to clear than younger wrestlers who are relatively new to sanyaku.

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It looks almost a done deal, even with a loss tomorrow:

Top shimpan Nishonoseki, who has to start the promotion procedure, before the torikumi: "Also with 13 wins, if with the yusho. He had the most wins last year."

YDC Moriya, after the bout: "There's nothing to say (against it), or is there? It's not about what I say, aren't the Japanese people all hoping for it?"

http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASK1P66TJK1PUTQP032.html

Edited by Akinomaki
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Kisenosato has been wrestling like a yokozuna for at least the past year. It would be a weak promotion (J–Y), maybe the weakest since who was it, Futahaguro that never had a yūshō? Checking the database he got promoted with 12–3 J (13–2 Y) and 14–1 D. I still think he deserves it simply due to his 2016, looking only at 2 consecutive performances seems shallow.

Anyone who was around at his time: how does Kaiō compare? I know he had multiple yūshō but was never promoted I think.

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8 minutes ago, Rigel said:

 

34 minutes ago, orandashoho said:

You don't get a rope based on past performance. It's the current performance that counts, nothing else.
Win or lose tomorrow he will be on a tsuna run next basho. Defeating Hakuho will make a difference, but if it is good enough for an outright promotion it would have to be truly spectacular.

Maybe you wish this was the case, but that simply is not true. Wrestlers who have a strong history clearly have a lower hurdle to clear than younger wrestlers who are relatively new to sanyaku.

 

OK, I am not saying that the past doesn't count for anything. Certainly Kise's record number of wins last year counts for something and his constancy counts for a lot. It is exactly what is being looked for in a yokozuna. On top of that, he has the comportment of a yokozuna and a formidable presence. All well and good, but there does happen to be that final rule -- the yusho and being able to defeat yokozuna. So if he is not able to beat Hakuho tomorrow, or makes a poor show of that final match, he can't be promoted outright.

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Immediate past performance is what counts. Kotoshogiku's 14-1 yusho was preceded by an 8 win basho; Goiedo's zensho yusho was preceded by a maki koshi as was Kotooshu's 14-1 yusho. (In addition, I believe Kotooshu won at least two of his bouts by henka: legal but not displaying yokozuna-like dignity.)

The biggest problem with the standard of yokozuna promotion requiring two consecutive yusho "or the equivalent" is that there obviously is no equivalent to winning the yusho. I guess a 14-1 record followed by a playoff loss comes closest, but that still is NOT the equivalent to winning the yusho. 

And let's be honest here: a 12-3 jun yusho 2 wins behind the yusho winner is clearly NOT the equivalent to winning the yusho. Not by a longshot. The cleanest policy is to require two consecutive yusho. The next best policy is to put an ozeki on notice of a yusho run AFTER he wins a yusho. Then see how he holds up under the pressure. 

I don't expect that will happen. They are going to promote Kisenosato.  And Kisenosato's promotion is unlikely to be a travesty. He's been a very good ozeki, just not one obviously a yokozuna in waiting (Hakuho was the last of those).

I expect that as a yokozuna Kisenosato will produce acceptable records, win a couple of more yusho and have a relatively short career because he's already 30. Something along the lines of Asahifuji, perhaps. Asahifuji also became a yokozuna at 30. They required him to win two consecutive yusho, but times have changed, and that isn't the end of the world.

Edited by ScreechingOwl
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6 minutes ago, ScreechingOwl said:

Immediate past performance is what counts.

Is it though?  I assume the promotion criteria are kept vague intentionally to give the YDC some wiggle room, even though I think a well-defined standard would be preferable overall.  With vague standards then can look at a bigger picture to define "the equivalent" if they want, which seems justified in this situation given the rather lengthy period of strong performance at the top level.

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So if Kisenosato gets promoted and no one retires, we'll have 4 concurrent yokozunae. Will that be the most there's ever been at once or if not what's the record? (Apologies if this should be obvious; I'm new-ish to sumo).

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Someone like Kisenosato doesn't happen very often. Ozeki for 5 years, kadoban only once, double digits wins 10 out of last 12, most wins in 2016, 2nd place so often in the era of Hakuho, etc. We're not setting some kind of troubling precedent. If Goeido wins in March, he'll probably have to win in May.

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3 minutes ago, just_some_guy said:

So if Kisenosato gets promoted and no one retires, we'll have 4 concurrent yokozunae. Will that be the most there's ever been at once or if not what's the record? (Apologies if this should be obvious; I'm new-ish to sumo).

I don't know the record, but there were 4 in 1990: Chiyonofuji, Onokuni, Hokutoumi and Asahifuji. Didn't last long, though, and by July 1992 there were none.

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8 minutes ago, just_some_guy said:

So if Kisenosato gets promoted and no one retires, we'll have 4 concurrent yokozunae. Will that be the most there's ever been at once or if not what's the record? (Apologies if this should be obvious; I'm new-ish to sumo).

looked it up, we had 4 in a stretch of 5 tournaments, from July 1999 through March 2000

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So happy about this. I am a Kise fan and it's great to finally see him go all the way. He gets way too much crap for someone who consistently does so well, and I'll be cheering him on to make yokozuna.

Best day in my short 2 years following this great sport

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14 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I don't know the record, but there were 4 in 1990: Chiyonofuji, Onokuni, Hokutoumi and Asahifuji. Didn't last long, though, and by July 1992 there were none.

Feels like we could be going down that path, doesn't it?

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I checked to see if we ever had 5 concurrent yokozuna. We came very close to seeing it happen 4 times, but it never happened.

In 2 years (1918 and 1958), retirements happened one basho before what would have been the 5th yokozuna, and in 2 years (1942 and 1954), retirements happened just 2 basho before what would have been the 5th yokozuna.

I also found out that having 3 or 4 yokozuna happens a lot more often than I thought. For some reason I assumed one or two was "normal", and we were in a stretch where we have more yokozuna than normal, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 3 seems to be normal. 2 is a little below average but not unusual. 0, 1, and 4 concurrent yokozuna seem to be the unstable numbers where something is going to change soon.

Thats probably by design to some extent, they probably feel like they need a couple yokozuna to sell the sport, so when one is doing poorly but he's the only guy, he'll probably be encouraged to stick around. But if there's 3 or 4 yokozuna and another wrestler has emerged as a possible future champion, the pressure to retire probably intensifies for any yokozuna who isn't doing well.

Edited by Rigel
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1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

It looks almost a done deal, even with a loss tomorrow:

Top shimpan Nishonoseki, who has to start the promotion procedure, before the torikumi: "Also with 13 wins, if with the yusho. He had the most wins last year."

YDC Moriya, after the bout: "There's nothing to say (against it), or is there? It's not about what I say, aren't the Japanese people all hoping for it?"

http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASK1P66TJK1PUTQP032.html

If he loses to Hakuho (which is unlikely) and still be promoted, it would be probably the weakest promotion ever, with a 12 wins basho followed by a 13 wins-yusho basho. It would look NG on the record book, especially this basho he only beat a miserable Terunofuji (and lost to a demoted Geeku) among the joyi. For a convincing promotion, he MUST beat Hakuho.

 

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36 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

If he loses to Hakuho (which is unlikely) and still be promoted, it would be probably the weakest promotion ever, with a 12 wins basho followed by a 13 wins-yusho basho. It would look NG on the record book, especially this basho he only beat a miserable Terunofuji (and lost to a demoted Geeku) among the joyi. For a convincing promotion, he MUST beat Hakuho.

 

it the yusho is not good enough for a promotion because of weak opposition, just check asashoryu's promotionbasho and the guys around........i guess noone cares about those numbers but the gaijin-sumofreaks here in the forum....

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A yusho equivalent means a playoff loss, whether it is 14-1,13-2 or even 12-3.  A 14-1 jun-yusho is also a yusho equivalent.  If Kisenosato is promoted, and I believe he will be, then Harumafuji and Kakuryu must win at least 12 in March. If they don't, then the pressure to retire will be immense. Hakuho also needs to start winning at least 12 again. 

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