Nagoya Basho 2021

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

My case is resting a few posts up.

You realize of course that "rest one's case" simply means the lawyer has finished presenting their side of the argument? It still falls to the jury to decide which side won. 

[Ichimawashi 573]

All this talk of a 14-0 vs 14-0 on senshuraku is bound to cause disappointment with a high degree of probability.  Since 1960 such a match has happened five times, while two or more rikishi have been at 12-0 on Day 13 about two dozen times (plus the five where there was a 14-0/14-0 showdown), including once where there was a trio at 12-0. In these two dozen basho with 2+ 12-0 records after 12 days, none survived to Day 15 without losing at least once.  So the odds appear to be about 9-2 against at this point.  It is clear as day that Hakuho and Terunofuji are well above the rest, but I would guess that to be at least somewhat true in all of the 30-odd basho that got to Day 13 with two undefeated rikishi.  I'm guessing that there is a much larger probability that we see 14-0 vs 13-1, but one could argue that that is just as exciting, since it leads to zensho or playoff.

The nightmare scenario would be for one (or both!) to get injured today or tomorrow, handing the yusho to the other, or, if they both go out with losses and injuries on Day 13 or 14, a double kyujo on Day 15 followed by, what? a non-playoff?  Could we then see a scenario where one of them hobbles into the arena to claim a yusho-clinching victory while the other one watches on TV and shakes his fist at the screen?

Edited July 16, 2021 by Ichimawashi

[Katooshu 3,079]

Ha, I never thought about that. Let's say they both get badly injured at 13-1, and neither can return to the dohyo. What happens then?

[Eikokurai 3,433]

3 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Ha, I never thought about that. Let's say they both get badly injured at 13-1, and neither can return to the dohyo. What happens then?

I think we'd see a game of 'who blinks first' here, assuming they're injured on the same day, within minutes of each other. Both would know that if they were the first to go kyujo, the other simply would not. They don't need to be match fit to get a fusen win, after all, so as long as they're not literally disabled, they'll happily limp their way to the dohyo to claim the freebie and take the yusho. I think in the unlikely event that both get hurt together, they'll both return come what may on Sunday to face each other in a 'Should be in surgery showdown'. Expect bad sumo.

[Ichimawashi 573]

6 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Ha, I never thought about that. Let's say they both get badly injured at 13-1, and neither can return to the dohyo. What happens then?

Even more intriguing.  Suppose both appear to be injured on Day 14 but get the same result.  Day 15 begins with reports hourly from both camps that each is looking unfit to continue, but no kyujo announcements from either.  Is there a deadline?  Is there a set of rules regarding this scenario?  Can you declare yourself kyujo at 10am and undeclare at 1pm?  Can you mislead the press in order to encourage the other guy to withdraw, hiding the fact that you are in bad shape?  What if the press reports that one is definitely out and the other prepares to get the freebie win and take the yusho, then steps out of the car to see the other one waiting to go in, with no apparent injury?  The number of ways this could work out with bizarre endings is unlimited.

[specialweek 2 136]

46 minutes ago, Ichimawashi said:

All this talk of a 14-0 vs 14-0 on senshuraku is bound to cause disappointment with a high degree of probability.  Since 1960 such a match has happened five times, while two or more rikishi have been at 12-0 on Day 13 about two dozen times (plus the five where there was a 14-0/14-0 showdown), including once where there was a trio at 12-0. In these two dozen basho with 2+ 12-0 records after 12 days, none survived to Day 15 without losing at least once.  So the odds appear to be about 9-2 against at this point.  It is clear as day that Hakuho and Terunofuji are well above the rest, but I would guess that to be at least somewhat true in all of the 30-odd basho that got to Day 13 with two undefeated rikishi.  I'm guessing that there is a much larger probability that we see 14-0 vs 13-1, but one could argue that that is just as exciting, since it leads to zensho or playoff.

The nightmare scenario would be for one (or both!) to get injured today or tomorrow, handing the yusho to the other, or, if they both go out with losses and injuries on Day 13 or 14, a double kyujo on Day 15 followed by, what? a non-playoff?  Could we then see a scenario where one of them hobbles into the arena to claim a yusho-clinching victory while the other one watches on TV and shakes his fist at the screen?

Yes Virginia there is a Santa Claus.......... Ticking all the I told you boxes Ichi?

[robnplunder 974]

49 minutes ago, Ichimawashi said:

The nightmare scenario would be for one (or both!) to get injured today or tomorrow, handing the yusho to the other, or, if they both go out with losses and injuries on Day 13 or 14, a double kyujo on Day 15 followed by, what? a non-playoff?  Could we then see a scenario where one of them hobbles into the arena to claim a yusho-clinching victory while the other one watches on TV and shakes his fist at the screen?

Good imagination!   But I can see them easily going 14-0.  Who can stop them?  

[Kurowashi 42]

Has anyone ever won a yusho, being kyujo on day 15 or even days 14 + 15 ?

[Katooshu 3,079]

3 minutes ago, Kurowashi said:

Has anyone ever won a yusho, being kyujo on day 15 or even days 14 + 15 ?

The ones I know of...

Wajima, Kyushu 1973, kyujo on day 14 and 15 (and a loss on day 13) http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=4074&b=197311

Chiyonofuji, Haru 1989, kyujo on day 15 http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=1354&b=198903

Edited July 16, 2021 by Katooshu

[Eikokurai 3,433]

4 minutes ago, Kurowashi said:

Has anyone ever won a yusho, being kyujo on day 15 or even days 14 + 15 ?

 

2 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Chiyonofuji Haru 1989, kyujo on day 15 http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=1354&b=198903

Also Wajima for days 14+15.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=4074&b=197311

Edited July 16, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Kurowashi 42]

Wow, thanks ! This topped my expactations, especially the Wajima Kyushu 73 yusho is astonishing :D

[Ichimawashi 573]

The real questions:

--has a yusho ever been divided because neither leading competitor could compete on the final day, resulting in a tie?

--is there a tie-breaking procedure (total wins by the guys you beat, maybe)?

--if they both hop to the ring when it's time, will the judges allow them to go for it?  What's the limit?

:)

[WAKATAKE 2,614]

Is the judging department going after ratings or something? Ura vs Meisei???

[Swami 245]

5 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Ordinarily, I'd agree, but once Hakuho goes there is only really Takakeisho who can threaten 13-15 wins consistently enough for it to worry Terunofuji. He could feasibly win yusho pretty regularly with 12-3 for quite some time to come. Heck, without Hakuho this Nagoya basho, even 11-4 might have been enough!

That said, he has hit his current ceiling of 13-2 four times in Makuuchi so I'm not concerned about his ability to do that when it's needed.

The concern I have is that if you look at May, all three of his losses - including the loss by hansoku - resulted in being put off-balance.  GIven Terunofuji's knees, which will never be 100% again, he needs to be pretty near-perfect every time and there are several tricky opponents who can put him off-balance.

I hope he makes it though.

Swami

[Asashosakari 18,660]

3 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Ha, I never thought about that. Let's say they both get badly injured at 13-1, and neither can return to the dohyo. What happens then?

I wouldn't be shocked to find that the old "yusho goes to the higher-ranked rikishi" rule is still on the books somewhere in case a playoff is impossible to schedule.

[lackmaker 428]

4 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Actually, it said "mini-henka" but Kintamayama, for all his awesomeness, is not the final arbiter of henka. Haha. That was a henka-non-henka at best, but for me there was plenty of contact.

He only recently made it clear you're not allowed to disagree with him.

[WAKATAKE 2,614]

And we are back to being on equal grounds again in the Juryo yusho race

[yohcun 393]

Shimpan are really keen to call out hairpulls this basho. Although, I think with that one even Ura sensed his hand was dangerous there, from that exaggerated "hands off" gesture he did afterwards.

And no one told Hatooka to shave before his interview today?

[Yamanashi 3,683]

2 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Chiyonofuji, Haru 1989, kyujo on day 15

I think that was when he hurt his arm during an uwatenage against Onokuni on day 14.  Two basho previously (11/1988) said Onokuni had snapped his 53-match win streak on day 15.  He had an 11-4 non-Yusho after that loss, and the "fusen Yusho" was followed by kyujo in May 1989.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

21 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

And we are back to being on equal grounds again in the Juryo yusho race

Not just back either, but to a three-way tie. Mitoryu has faced both Yutakayama and Abi already, but those two haven't met yet. Since tomorrow's schedules are already settled, we may see them meet on Sunday.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Kaninoyama 1,660]

Blatant dame-oshi by Aoiyama there. Who does he think he is. Hakuho?

[MrGrumpyGills 114]

Say, is that Gagamaru as a guest commentator on the Abema live stream? He slimmed down a LOT. Looking good!

[nagora 88]

45 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

I think that was when he hurt his arm during an uwatenage against Onokuni on day 14.

That's right - he landed on his elbow and was taken away in an ambulance after the bout. I don't know if it turned out to be broken or not.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Very weird and awkward ending to to the Ichinojo - Hoshoryu bout. At least it shows the folly of engaging an unthrowable behemoth in direct yotsu when you don't have the strength to do so.

EDIT: and it's a torinaoshi - the second in a row after Kagayaki - Tobizaru. Hopefully Hoshoryu brings a new game plan.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Godango 956]

Poor Hoshoryu looks exhausted after lugging around Ichinojo's frame in bout one. This is gonna be tough.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Godango