Nagoya Basho 2021

[Yamanashi 3,724]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Kotoeko was the 7th-youngest sekitori in his juryo debut basho. Even a year and a half later when he finally managed to stick in the paid ranks he was still the 12th-youngest. He was also the 12th-youngest in makuuchi on his debut there another two years on.

People really have some completely skewed ideas of what the typical rank-and-filer career progression looks like. Because yeah, talented kids who turn pro at age 15 don't shoot up the rankings the way talented guys who turn pro at age 22 do, and it makes no sense at all to just look at how many basho/years they need to get somewhere. Haven't we gone over this on this forum about two thousand times by now?

Edit: To put this together with the other, even more frequently seen, side of the coin: A mediocre collegiate guy going directly to mid-makushita with no setbacks is not an impressive ascent. A high caliber 15-year-old rookie taking four years to makushita and seven to become sekitori is not a Herculean struggle against all odds. They're both simply...normal.

1) I have only the utmost respect for you.  Since I came onto this Forum in 2017, you have been one of maybe three or four posters I am in complete awe of.  Your knowledge and hard work for this Forum are beyond impressive.  So when I say "with all due respect", I sincerely mean it.

2)  When WAKATAKE makes compilations of "speed runs" or "slowest to ... ", he doesn't state the age of the rikishi (that's for other lists like "youngest to ... "), he lists the number of basho.  When I read these (and I do, every basho, and many thanks to the compilers), I look at the "fastest" group and think "wow, they went right through the ranks"; when I see the "slowest" group I think "wow, there's a real lunchbucket type of guy ("salaryman") who really slogged through basho after basho and didn't quit after several years in the lower ranks."   These lists aren't ranked by age, they're ranked by basho.

3) Kotoeko took 44 basho to reach Juryo for the first time, 55 to return w/o falling again.  Most rikishi don't have 44-basho careers, and most rikishi never make Juryo at all.  [He finally surpassed his grandfather's rank of J17 in 2016].  I'm sure he wasn't the slowest to Juryo, but he was slow; and the guys that take that long to make Juryo don't usually get any farther.

4) I don't think any more stats, etc. will convince you of my point.  And while I agree that starting at age 15 leaves you a good bit younger after 44 basho than if you started at 20, it probably doesn't feel that way at , say, the 40 basho mark.

5) Once again, I don't have any animus toward your position; I just see it differently, and probably will after a couple thousand more times.  So bear with me.

[lackmaker 432]

You are allowed to disagree.

[Kintamayama 44,350]

10 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

You are allowed to disagree.

As long as it’s not with me. Shoudai yusho!

[Asashosakari 18,786]

44 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

2)  When WAKATAKE makes compilations of "speed runs" or "slowest to ... ", he doesn't state the age of the rikishi (that's for other lists like "youngest to ... "), he lists the number of basho.  When I read these (and I do, every basho, and many thanks to the compilers), I look at the "fastest" group and think "wow, they went right through the ranks"; when I see the "slowest" group I think "wow, there's a real lunchbucket type of guy ("salaryman") who really slogged through basho after basho and didn't quit after several years in the lower ranks."   These lists aren't ranked by age, they're ranked by basho.

The point is that those listings are merely trivia, and the information contained with that trivia is ultimately meaningless without further context. When it comes to "did this rikishi really have to grind to get to where he is" or "did that rikishi overachieve compared to others like him", etc. etc., i.e. actual career assessments, it's the context that matters, not the quick trivia bits. And it's just a fact that it's completely immaterial for his career ceiling whether a 23-year-old juryo newcomer got there after 8 years of professional competition started from age 15, or after 5 years from age 18, or after a little over one year from age 22. And the 15+8 guy out of middle school would certainly be more relevant than some random 22+3 dude out of college, irrespective of the fact that the latter spent half a decade less in the unpaid ranks.

And I'm saying all that as somebody who loves sumo trivia plenty. But there are limits to what it's good for, and IMHO any sumo fan whose interest is more than casual in nature is helped by knowing what those limits are, because not knowing gets in the way of attaining a deeper understanding of the sport we're all here for. In the worst case, not knowing makes people say things they think are profound, but which are actually completely ass-backwards from the reality of the situation.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 5,813]

Point in case: Yokozuna (and alleged prodigy) Futahaguro, who dallied almost five years in the unpaid ranks before making a move.

[Rocks 1,807]

17 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Point in case: Yokozuna (and alleged prodigy) Futahaguro, who dallied almost five years in the unpaid ranks before making a move.

His entire professional career wasn't that long.  Juryo debutee to retired Yokozuna in 4 years. 

[Amamaniac 2,078]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

1 hour ago, lackmaker said:

You are allowed to disagree.

As long as it’s not with me. Shoudai yusho!

I'm going to have to disagree with you on that.  Asanoyama yusho!!

Or we could simply agree (to disagree)... 

[Gurowake 3,915]

9 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

I'm going to have to disagree with you on that.  Asanoyama yusho!!

Or we could simply agree (to disagree)... 

I mean, you're both right.  They have a Yusho.  So....Daieisho Yusho!

[Amamaniac 2,078]

The end of the Akua v. Enho bout set the standard for yoritaoshi ("frontal crush out") – as per the English translation used by NHK.  I think Enho's dreams got crushed along with it.  Sigh.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Not that there was any doubt before Day 11, but with Shimanoumi's victory over Kotonowaka today, this tournament has become even more a two-horse race.  Hakuho and Terunofuji are essentially the only contenders for the yusho.  Their high-ranked opponents over the next three days can affect their chances of ultimate glory, but none will steal the Cup away.  All the more reason for both men to protect their perfect records to the end.  Keep in mind that Terunofuji has never in his entire sumo career had more than 13 wins.  Will the desire to secure Yokozuna promotion drive him to new heights?  That's what the oozumo tournament design is meant to do: bring out excellence.  And in the case of Terunofuji and Hakuho, it seems to be working.

[Kaminariyuki 497]

3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

The end of the Akua v. Enho bout set the standard for yoritaoshi ("frontal crush out") – as per the English translation used by NHK.  I think Enho's dreams got crushed along with it.  Sigh.

He may yet regroup but I admit, it's not looking good for our 98 kg rikishi. I agree with your assessment. He looked defeated in spirit as he lay there for a few seconds after the loss.

 

[Kaminariyuki 497]

2 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Not that there was any doubt before Day 11, but with Shimanoumi's victory over Kotonowaka today, this tournament has become even more a two-horse race.  Hakuho and Terunofuji are essentially the only contenders for the yusho.  Their high-ranked opponents over the next three days can affect their chances of ultimate glory, but none will steal the Cup away.  All the more reason for both men to protect their perfect records to the end.  Keep in mind that Terunofuji has never in his entire sumo career had more than 13 wins.  Will the desire to secure Yokozuna promotion drive him to new heights?  That's what the oozumo tournament design is meant to do: bring out excellence.  And in the case of Terunofuji and Hakuho, it seems to be working.

Indeed, Terunofui was already on a tear and he seems to be living the moment and setting the stage for the bout many of us were hoping to see. If they come into senshuraku with the same record, even if they both lose one or two, it's going to be epic. But, if they're both contending for a zensho yusho, the hype will be off the charts. 

It has probably been discussed here somewhere but I'm guessing a jun-yusho might get Terunofuji the rope? Particularly a 14-1?

[Amamaniac 2,078]

1 minute ago, Kaminariyuki said:

He may yet regroup but I admit, it's not looking good for our 98 kg rikishi. I agree with your assessment. He looked defeated in spirit as he lay there for a few seconds after the loss.

It's difficult for any fan of Enho to see him struggle this way.  But he is a symbol of courage, a Japanese David (à la Goliath slayer).  Somehow seeing him persevere despite it all is ... uplifting and at the same time relatable (?).

[Godango 956]

3 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Indeed, Terunofui was already on a tear and he seems to be living the moment and setting the stage for the bout many of us were hoping to see. If they come into senshuraku with the same record, even if they both lose one or two, it's going to be epic. But, if they're both contending for a zensho yusho, the hype will be off the charts. 

It has probably been discussed here somewhere but I'm guessing a jun-yusho might get Terunofuji the rope? Particularly a 14-1?

I went into this (DISCLAIMER: What the hell do I know?!) here: 

Based on the dive I did into historical promotions (both pre and post Futahaguro's now infamous yusho-less promotion/career), here are the relevant bits:

• With 13-2 Y, Terunofuji's promotion is all but assured. 12-3 Y has historical precedent.
• With 13-2 JY, Terunofuji's promotion would not be unheard of.  14-1 JY would be wholly justifiable and in line with past and recent precedent.
• For Terunofuji 13-2 D is likely enough, 14-1 D a virtual guarantee.

 

[Kaminariyuki 497]

3 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

It's difficult for any fan of Enho to see him struggle this way.  But he is a symbol of courage, a Japanese David (à la Goliath slayer).  Somehow seeing him persevere despite it all is ... uplifting and at the same time relatable (?).

Someone will possibly post again about how they like seeing him crushed but I absolutely agree with you. His accomplishments are praise-worthy in the extreme. I fear after he rose to makuuchi, other members of Myagino are probably getting more guidance and attention. Justifiably so. In addition to having David bit going, I'm hoping to see somre regrouping and a bit of Phoenix action. We shall see.

[since_94 650]

17 hours ago, rhyen said:

That is an utchari, isn’t it?

On rewatching, especially from the vantage point of different camera angles, I concur that it was. Still think an argument can be made that Chiyonoo’s arm broke the plane of the dohyo before, or at the same instant as, Miyogiryu’s though, which would have justified a torinaoshi, IMO. They were both airborne. Would have been a more satisfying result since Miyogiryu was pressing the initiative and I didn’t want to see him go MK (however inevitable this unfortunate eventuality may have been)

Edited July 15, 2021 by since_94

[Eikokurai 3,433]

Yago moves to 7-5 and looks like he may avoid the immediate return to Makushita.

Abi wins again to go to 9-3, while Kaisho falls to 8-4. Either Yutakayama or Mitoryu, co-leaders on 9-2, will join Abi in a chasing pack of two after they meet later today. 

Enho finally snaps his six-bout losing streak. A coincidence that it came against a rikishi he has never faced before? Midorifuji got caught in a classic Enho grip-and-spin.

Edited July 15, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Eikokurai 3,433]

Gaa ... a second loss in two days for Yutakayama surrenders the advantage in the Juryo yusho race to Mitoryu. Yuta was one ahead on Tuesday; now he's one behind, alongside Abi.

Edited July 15, 2021 by Eikokurai

[yohcun 393]

Not to discount his achievement, but if Mitoryu slips into makuuchi, it'll feel like some kind of natural order being broken.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

12 minutes ago, yohcun said:

Not to discount his achievement, but if Mitoryu slips into makuuchi, it'll feel like some kind of natural order being broken.

He's having the best basho of his career. Only once has he reached double-digits in Juryo but that was from the bottom of the banzuke (J14w). He's never managed even a KK this far up, so if he does get promoted – and historical precedent supports it with even just 11 wins from J6 – I don't think he will last long.

Edited July 15, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Gospodin 187]

8 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

 In addition to having David bit going, I'm hoping to see somre regrouping and a bit of Phoenix action. We shall see.

He already did - got Enho a capable enforcer for September

[Gospodin 187]

8 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Justifiably so. In addition to having David bit going, I'm hoping to see somre regrouping and a bit of Phoenix action. We shall see.

Seriously: I think Enho isn‘t fully „there“. Most probably he is suffering from concussion symptoms and should withdrsw, imho.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

Ura has surprised me this basho. After the first few days, I really thought he'd struggle to KK. His early wins were not convincing and against guys who have struggled this tournament, but he's turned it around with four straight wins to get his kachikoshi with three days to spare. He could push on for a prize.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

16 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Ura has surprised me this basho. After the first few days, I really thought he'd struggle to KK. His early wins were not convincing and against guys who have struggled this tournament, but he's turned it around with four straight wins to get his kachikoshi with three days to spare. He could push on for a prize.

That was the longest katasukashi in the making I've ever seen. Props to Tochinoshin for resisting so long; that said he had MK on the line as a motivator.

[Ichimawashi 573]

Abi is considerably behind on the process of stiffening his sagari for sekitorihood, and has a different colour mawashi so cannot use the previous one.  Is there a shortage of the paste they use or something?  Or maybe they could have painted the old one black?