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[Raishu 194]

It is indeed complex and I know, that some of these guys will not become oyakata because of their own decision....

But anyway, I´ll give it a try and sorry for the graphics.

Dewanoumi ichimon - 3 free kabu till 2013 + 4 free kabu till 2016; 3 toshiyori karikabu being afraid of retirement of owner/active rikishi (2 extra-ichimon - Musashimaru (I am still counting with Kyokutenho as future Oshima), Kakizoe (Takekaze), 1 intra-heya - Tochisakae (Tochiozan)); 5 active rikishi eligible for kabu by current standards (let´s forget Hamanishiki´s case, right;-)) (Miyabiyama (family business?), Bushuyama, Kitataiki, Goeido, Toyohibiki

Nishonoseki ichimon - 3 free kabu till 2013 + 1 free kabu till 2016; 2 toshiyori karikabu being afraid of retirement of owner/active rikishi (both intra-ichimon - Tamanoshima (Wakanosato), Tamarikido (Kisenosato); 2 active rikishi eligible for kabu by current standards (Kotoshogiku, Yoshikaze)

Kasugayama-Isegahama ichimon - 2 free kabu till 2013 + 2 free kabu till 2016; no nominees

Tokitsukaze ichimon - 2 free kabu till 2013 + 0 free kabu till 2016; 2 toshiyori karikabu being afraid of retirement of owner/active rikishi (extra-ichimon - Shikishima (Aminishiki), intra-heya – Zaonishiki (Toyonoshima) – I know he won´t need any kabu by 2017, so we can omit him); 1 active rikishi eligible for kabu by current standards (Homasho)

Takasago ichimon - 2 free kabu till 2013 + 0 free kabu till 2016; no nominees

Takanohana et renegades ichimon - 0 free kabu till 2016; 1 active rikishi eligible for kabu by current standards (Wakakoyu)

In total – 12 free kabu till 2013 + 7 free kabu till 2016; 7 toshiyori karikabu being afraid of retirement of owner/active rikishi ; 9 active rikishi eligible for kabu by current standards (Homasho)

Does it makes sense?

Nice work!

But you forgot Myogiryu and Tamaasuka as eligible candidates

Also, I agree that it was a good idea to leave out qualifiying gaijin Rikishi, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them acquires citizenship sooner or later..

[Asashosakari 17,346]

Many thanks Pikenoyama!

I ended up looking at it from a different angle, more focused on the active rikishi. Including one gaijin rikishi. ;-) For what it's worth...the following is with a timeframe of approximately two years in mind (let's say until mid-2014), because "who might newly become eligible?" really gets too speculative further out.

Likelihood of retirement: High
Bushuyama	Dewanoumi-Fujishima	[/td]
Miyabiyama	Dewanoumi-Fujishima	likely 3-year grace toshiyori if staying
Sagatsukasa	Dewanoumi-Irumagawa	(needs 7 more basho)
Kimurayama	Dewanoumi-Kasugano	(needs 2 more basho)
Hochiyama	Dewanoumi-Sakaigawa	(needs 4 more basho)
Kyokutenho	KasugaIse-Tomozuna	likely future Oshima [Musashimaru]
Takamisakari	Takasago-Azumazeki	future Furiwake [available]
Likelihood of retirement: Medium
Kitataiki	Dewanoumi-Kitanoumi
Hakuho	KasugaIse-Miyagino	likely ichidai toshiyori if naturalizing
Tamaasuka	Nishonoseki-Kataonami
Wakanosato	Nishonoseki-Naruto	future Nishiiwa [Tamanoshima]
Yoshikaze	Nishonoseki-Oguruma
Tosayutaka	Tokitsukaze-Tokitsukaze	(needs 5 more basho)
Likelihood of retirement: Low
Aminishiki	KasugaIse-Isegahama	future Ajigawa [shikishima]
Takekaze	Nishonoseki-Oguruma	future Oshiogawa [Kakizoe]
Wakakoyu	Takanohana-Onomatsu
Homasho	Tokitsukaze-Shikoroyama
Likelihood of retirement: Very Low
Tochiozan	Dewanoumi-Kasugano	future Kiyomigata [Tochisakae]
Goeido	Dewanoumi-Sakaigawa
Myogiryu	Dewanoumi-Sakaigawa
Toyohibiki	Dewanoumi-Sakaigawa
Kisenosato	Nishonoseki-Naruto	future Araiso [Tamarikido]
Kotoshogiku	Nishonoseki-Sadogatake
Takasago-Hakkaku	(needs 6 more Makuuchi basho)
Toyonoshima	Tokitsukaze-Tokitsukaze	future Nishikijima [Zaonishiki]

Feel free to quibble with the intai likelihoods, they're just my guess.

Among high and medium-classed rikishi, that's 8 who don't have a clear kabu path yet. Adding in Musashimaru and Tamanoshima who'd be pushed out by retiring rikishi, we're at 10 who ought to be seeking a solution in the next couple of years. Or possibly Kakizoe rather than Tamanoshima, as the latter could slide into the (same ichimon) Takekaze-owned share if Wakanosato retires.

The worst crunch is definitely going to be felt at Dewanoumi-ichimon, even with 4 free shares by April 2014.

[Pikenoyama 27]

Nice work!

But you forgot Myogiryu and Tamaasuka as eligible candidates

Also, I agree that it was a good idea to leave out qualifiying gaijin Rikishi, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them acquires citizenship sooner or later..

Good catch - thanks. In case of Tamaasuka it was just me overseeing him in my notes. But I forgot to add Myogiryu into the list after his Komusubi debut last basho. I have edited the original post likewise.

Edited September 6, 2012 by Pikenoyama

[Pikenoyama 27]

The worst crunch is definitely going to be felt at Dewanoumi-ichimon, even with 4 free shares by April 2014.

Exactly, even now there are 9 candidates for these 4 shares within Dewanoumi ichimon with 3 more prospects in line. That´s why Kimurayama, Hochiyama and Sagatsukasa should keep on going as long as possible if they want to remain in the Kyokai. On the other hand Kasugayama-Isegahama ichimon will have 2 spare shares by 2013 with no eligible Japanese prospect in close sight. And even Takasago ichimon can provide one kabu share and still having one for Okinoumi by 2013.

Have I already written that I love these speculations despite possible myoseki revolution on the horizon B-) .

[Asashosakari 17,346]

Regarding the whole "what's with Musashimaru's kabu career?" deal, I just remembered one persistent rumour from the Japanese sites, namely:

And let's not forget about Musashimaru.

Musashimaru's "problem" may well be adressed when current Musashigawa retires in 2013 when Takamisakari will prolly be thinking about his own oyakata career if not earlier. There are also Kakizoe on a six make-koshi streak and not looking good in lower Juryo and veteran Bushuyama who soon will be kabu eligible to add more competition.

It's been nearly two years since that comment, and indeed some voices have been quite insistent in the meantime that Maru will be Musashigawa's hand-picked successor to his rather prestigious kabu. I have no idea how credible this is at all, but on the upside it's only another five months until we'll know...

[krindel 671]

Now THAT would be an interesting development. Musashimaru was arguably the most popular non-Japanese rikishi, so I would think his inheriting one of the "desirable" names (in the "all kabu are equal but some are more equal than others" sense) would be just another way to show just how much he has been adopted by the Japanese crowd.

[Washuyama 600]

Musashimaru was arguably the most popular non-Japanese rikishi,

Arguing.. From a different era, but I would call http://www.sumoreference.com/Rikishi.aspx?r=4050 slightly more popular...

[Doitsuyama 1,157]

I don't know really and I even am not a fan of this guy, but shouldn't Asashoryu be considered as the most popular (and probably most unpopular at the same time, like Bayern Munich in Germany) non-Japanese rikishi? In my humble opinion only an America-centric viewpoint can point to Musashimaru (or Takamiyama).

[Asojima 2,844]

In the 70's, Takamiyama was everywhere, commercials, TV shows, billboards, fashion shows, etc. He was also popular on the dohyo. He probably taught Takamisakari how to grab the fan's attention.

[ryafuji 792]

Well are we talking about worldwide following, or just the Japanese public? If its the latter then I cannot believe that Asashoryu was more popular than Takamiyama, who was adored. If you expand it to include Asashoryu's Mongolian following then it may be different.

[yorikiried by fate 1,844]

I just conducted a representative survey in my family and all three of us say Asashoryu.

(My late grandmother, though, would have disregarded him as being "not clean", cleanliness being her personal title of perfection. Then again Takamiyama's sideburns = not clean as well...)

Edited September 10, 2012 by yorikiried by fate

[krindel 671]

Well, since I was referring to popularity and acceptance by the Japanese public, I think Asa is definitely out of contention. Takamiyama was well before my time, so I will not insist when it comes to comparing his popularity to Musashimaru's.

[Doitsuyama 1,157]

Well, since I was referring to popularity and acceptance by the Japanese public, I think Asa is definitely out of contention. Takamiyama was well before my time, so I will not insist when it comes to comparing his popularity to Musashimaru's.

Ok, if general acceptance is the criteria then it might be tough for Asashoryu. But wouldn't Konishiki also be ahead of Musashimaru. I think he is better known as Musashimaru even right now, and his intai seems like decades ago.

[Pikenoyama 27]

Tomorrow is a judgement mandatory retirement day for Iwatomo oyakata. The ichimon most crowded with kabu prospects - Dewanoumi - will have one spare kabu with lot of guys wanting it. Who is going to be the lucky one? How about the first intra-heya choice - Tochisakae? That might free Tochiozan´s Kiyomigata share for loan outside Kasugano. Would it be interesting for Kakizoe? Or would it make another transition station for Musashimaru?

And exactly in 3 weeks there will be another mandatory retirement - this time Tatsutagawa from Minato beya within Tokitsukaze ichimon. Would that share go to Homasho?

[Raishu 194]

And exactly in 3 weeks there will be another mandatory retirement - this time Tatsutagawa from Minato beya within Tokitsukaze ichimon. Would that share go to Homasho?

Although Tokitsukaze-Ichimon still has 3 loaners among their Oyakta staff (Ajigawa, Nishikijima, Katsunoura), I'd be really surprised that another person than Homasho walks away with that share (assumed that he really wants to have it).

[Pikenoyama 27]

Still no news from Japan about Iwatomo share? (In jonokuchi...)

[Kintamayama 42,366]

Ex-Kakizoe and current Oshiogawa Oyakata has switched to the suddenly vacant Ikazuchi name on October 16th, or so I hear.

[Andreas21 172]

Fascinating stuff! (A bit on the weird side though. I didn't understand half of it.)

Reminds me of a board/card game called "Kreml" from a swiss maker. Anybody knows this?

There could be a very similar one for this kabu/oyataka business.

[Finngall 31]

Reminds me of a board/card game called "Kreml" from a swiss maker. Anybody knows this?

There could be a very similar one for this kabu/oyataka business.

Also published in the US as "Kremlin": http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/196/kremlin

And yes, I can see possible parallels.

[yorikiried by fate 1,844]

F*ck! Totally forgot about this game. Nice one. Have to ask a friend who has an attic full of such.

[Muhomatsu 198]

The Tatsutagawa share is now free according to the Kyokai site. Must be that former komusibi Yutakayama retired. Guessing he hit the age of 65.

[Swami 245]

I'd hate to see Musashimaru stuck without a kabu, hopefully he'll be OK.

Swami

[ryafuji 792]

The Tatsutagawa share is now free according to the Kyokai site. Must be that former komusibi Yutakayama retired. Guessing he hit the age of 65.

Yes, he turned 65 on October 22.

[Asashosakari 17,346]

Ex-Kakizoe and current Oshiogawa Oyakata has switched to the suddenly vacant Ikazuchi name on October 16th, or so I hear.

I just realized that we never mentioned it here (although Tamanaogijima of course did catch it) - Kakizoe is actually listed as the Ikazuchi owner, so this share has crossed ichimon lines.

The next mandatory retirement is also approaching as next Wednesday will be the 65th birthday of Tatsunami Kasugayama-Isegahama-ichimon's Urakaze-oyakata (former maegashira Teruzakura...I must admit: who?).

And to include the information here, as well: Nakamura-beya will shut down on the 19th, with the eponymous oyakata et al.(minus 1) moving to Azumazeki-beya.

Edited November 28, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Yubinhaad 10,957]

According to the 2ch rumour mill Kitazakura has been seen frequently at...Shikihide-beya IIRC (not 100% sure right now).

And another rumour becomes reality (I hope you've been putting some money on these down at your local betting shop, Asashosakari!). According to this Sponichi article, former Kitazakura will take over Shikihide-beya when the current shisho (former Komusubi Oshio) celebrates his 65th birthday in January.

Shikihide-beya is part of Tokitsukaze Ichimon, and it seems that fellow-ichimon members Edagawa-oyakata (former Aogiyama) and Arashio-oyakata (former Oyutaka) were both approached about taking over the heya (or merging with it, in the latter case). Both declined.

Kitazakura is a member of Dewanoumi Ichimon, so this will be a rare example of an oyakata succeeding to a heya across ichimon lines.