Hakuho - 16th time of asking

[Jejima 1,495]

16 years I have been setting a poll about Hakuho!  Will this one be the last one?

Please add a comment with your prediction below - and also say how many zensho yushos you think he'll win in 2020, for the fourth question to this poll.

Hakuho's first basho of 2020 did not go well....  He was ranked at Y1E and went 1-3-11.

Previous polls:-
2019
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2005

Edited February 16, 2020 by Jejima

[Ryoshishokunin 332]

Zero zensho. :(

[Benihana 1,972]

1 yusho and he will retire 2020. His longest winning streak will be 10.

[Oshirokita 198]

No yusho, no zensho, he plods along for exactly 21 wins, getting 11 of them in July before going to the Olympics and then retiring to manage a stable.

[Athenayama 1,195]

No zensho, 20 wins.

[Ginkitsune 38]

No zensho

 

[Morty 1,518]

One yusho, but zero zensho. Three kuyjo

[Hakuhonofan 334]

2 yusho, no zensho, 21 wins.

[RabidJohn 2,071]

No yusho. Intai just after the Olympics.

[Rocks 1,810]

On 15/02/2020 at 15:49, Jejima said:

16 years I have been setting a poll about Hakuho!  Will this one be the last one?

Yes, it will. I think there is 0% chance he is on the banzuke in January 2021.

I think he'll get 1 more Yusho in July, then gone not long after.

[Katsunorifuji 65]

I don’t see any yusho, but wouldn’t be surprised if he won in March. Like most I think he won’t be on the banzuke next year, but I’m also going to predict he hangs around through September of this year. 

[Kaminariyuki 519]

Sadly, no zensho (but the mark he sets at 15 may never be broken, IMO). He gets the yusho in March, kyujo in May, 11-4 in July and intai right after the special tournament/exhibition being held between the olympics and paralympics.

[Jejima 1,495]

Hakuho is still good enough to win one more yusho - but it won't be zensho.

I can see him winning 50 bouts in total for this year - but he won't improve on his 14 streak. 

[MumboJumbo 37]

2 yusho, one zensho(longest streak)! 52 wins!!

He will stick around for one or two more basho next year.

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

2 yusho, no zensho, 59 total, 21 match win streak. Will retire after the olympics

[Nantonoyama 255]

1 last yusho, only two basho until senshuraku, incl. the yusho and intai by the end of the year

[Jejima 1,495]

The consensus seems to be that Hakuho will win either one or two yushos this year. Not bad for your typical rikishi, but below par for the GOAT.

I wonder whether there will be a poll for next year?

[Otokonoyama 2,735]

From NHK World-Japan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3kPH9caF9Q

[Jejima 1,495]

Question 1
Hakuho won just one yusho this year in March. It was his 44th career yusho. This was predicted by almost half of us, so I won't list them all here - but it will be taken into account for the eventual yusho winner.

Question 2
I will adjust the predictions for this poll to reflect the missing basho. This poll was started after the one win that Hakuho picked up in January. So that one win is a given for everyone. After that, there were a further four bashos, instead of five. 

Hakuho had a further twenty-three wins after that first basho. So, we will add 25% to that, to get 28.75, to take into account the 'missed' basho of May. Then add the given win from January, to get 29.75 as the actual correct prediction considered for this poll. Kaninoyama and Rocks both predicted 30 wins, which is pretty much spot on! Okay, let's look back to Question 1 for these two.... Oh, they both got that one correct too.

Question 3
Hakuho never bettered the 14 day win streak that he had from the end of 2019 going into the start of 2020 - although he came close with 13 wins between the end of the March basho to day 10 of the July basho.  Rocks was one of many that got this correct.

So, the yusho goes to Rocks  and Kaninoyama can have the jun-yusho . 

[Oshirokita 198]

On 01/12/2020 at 03:18, Jejima said:

 

Question 2
I will adjust the predictions for this poll to reflect the missing basho. This poll was started after the one win that Hakuho picked up in January. So that one win is a given for everyone. After that, there were a further four bashos, instead of five. 

Hakuho had a further twenty-three wins after that first basho. So, we will add 25% to that, to get 28.75, to take into account the 'missed' basho of May. 

I disagree with your logic to adjust predictions for the canceled basho. Many players assumed that Hakuho might retire last year or sit out one or more basho from injury and would not compete in all 6 basho, so "adjusting" is not merited. As it turns out, he did not retire so my own guess was flawed, but I think you should have taken the numbers as they are. My 2c.

[Jejima 1,495]

19 hours ago, Oshirokita said:

I disagree with your logic to adjust predictions for the canceled basho. Many players assumed that Hakuho might retire last year or sit out one or more basho from injury and would not compete in all 6 basho, so "adjusting" is not merited. As it turns out, he did not retire so my own guess was flawed, but I think you should have taken the numbers as they are. My 2c.

You make a good point - which I partly agree with. 

When we first had a year with just five bashos (2011), I calculated similar to as here to for all polls - so I was following precedent.  

Luckily, even if we take the actual number of wins - or some number in between the actual number and the adjusted number, I still think that the yusho goes to Rocks. 

This is because of the four players that suggested 21 or lower, two of them correctly predicted the one yusho.

Neither of those two left a comment (as requested to those predicting 21 or lower) to the actual number. So we don't know if they meant 12 (enough for a 11-4 yusho on top of the single shiroiboshi in January) or 21, or somewhere in between.

So, after the further consideration, I am still going to award the yusho to Rocks, and the jun-yusho to Kaninoyama.