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About Ginkitsune

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  1. Ginkitsune

    Corona and sumo

    Thanks for the clarification. So it would appear that if anything, the primary impact would have been to undercount the number of infected in China, perhaps significantly. Given that the raw mortality rate within China is currently 3.48% while outside of China it is 1.5% this would make sense however it will likely be many months until it can be adequately investigated.
  2. Ginkitsune

    Corona and sumo

    Disclaimer: This post is not on whether the basho will be held or not. I have no idea however, I would like to address what i see as misinformation even if it is unintentional. Again this is my opinion but this is a serious epidemic and misleading information can do a lot more harm than good. Nucleic acid amplification is used in testing for COVID-19 to separate small quantities of RNA whose genome is then sequenced so it is not a test in and of itself. I cannot state what the sensitivity of the test is however I am certain that it is not 30% as that would indicate that it is only identifying 30% of true cases. In tests such as these the sensitivity (identification as positive of a true positive sample) is usually in the high 90% range and specificity (true negative samples are identified as negative) is also in the 90's. If you have information contrary to this please post the source so others can access it. Also samples that do not meet the criteria for positive or negative based on genome sequencing are classified indeterminate and sent to a reference lab for analysis.Again, you can find the laboratory protocol for test for COVID-19 at the WHO website. The rest of this post simply states that the epidemic is severe which I think we can all agree on. The latest WHO Situation Report #37 was published February 25th and indicated 7 new cases in Japan. All infections for those on the Diamond Princess are classified as "International Conveyance" by the WHO. There were no additional infections reported for those patients in the new report. In the report you will also notice that all cases of International Conveyance (eg those aboard the Diamond Princess) are listed as "Site of transmission under investigation". So you are correct that their nationality is not "Diamond Princess" however they are currently NOT counted under any nationality as it is unclear where they acquired the infection. The countries listed are not nationalities but people identified as infected in that country. So, there were over 3,000 people onboard the Diamond Princess of whom 691 of all nationalities were identified as infected. This is correct however the woman was not going all over the city and remained at home. There seems to be some confusion on how Japan is managing potentially infected people as someone else mentioned that it is odd that only hospitalized patients have been counted as infected. In fact patients who have recovered and those who may have come into contact with an infected patient are asked to confine themselves to home and are monitored. They are contacted every day and asked about their condition as well as their temperature. This woman was monitored and after displaying symptoms was asked to return to the hospital where she received another test which confirmed she was infected. In this case she did not receive a genetic test when she was originally discharged to see if the virus remained in her system so it is unknown if she reacquired the infection or if it never left. It seems likely that in the future all "recovered" patients with be required to have a PCR test before being discharged. This post is already too long but I would urge everyone to be careful of what you read and if you want to speculate make sure that others know it is only your opinion. In a situation such as this people need accurate information that can help them and those around them. Kaminariyuki has excellent advice in wearing a mask and frequent hand washing. As many westerners do not wear masks, sneezing or coughing into your elbow provides the best protection for others.
  3. Ginkitsune

    Corona and sumo

    I can understand that people are concerned however I can't understand why they can't accept that (1) Yes it is a fast spreading virus with a risk of mortality and (2) that quarantines of cities outside of China are probably not good ideas and (3) the internet is full of misinformation that can cause panic. The WHO announced that new cases in China peaked between January 23 and February 2 and that new cases "have been steadily declining" although outbreaks in other countries are deeply concerning and there is still a risk of pandemic. So things seem to be improving however still too much is unknown to say it will not flare up in another location. Regarding the Japan Times article from last week Dr. Oshitani did not say the Olympics could not be held now as the headline says nor did he say it would not be safe, he said "Right now we do not have an effective strategy, and I think it may be difficult to have the Olympics (now). But by the end of July we may be in a different situation. The basho is NOT the same as the Olympics. The Olympics involves over 15,000 athletes from over 200 countries and an expected crowd of over 600,000 from all over the world. It is a much different situation. Japan is not suppressing the infected number in any way shape or form. It is not standard procedure to "proactively" test asymptomatic patients in part because there are currently only 16 labs in the world who are certified by WHO to test for 2019nCoV. You don't waste precious resources by regularly testing asymptomatic patients. (See Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) technical guidance: Laboratory testing for 2019-nCoV in humans on the WHO website). Also posting video from NTD (funded by the Falun Gong and highly critical of all Chinese policies) suggesting without any evidence that the true death toll in Wuhan is 20,000 only helps to fuel more speculation. The US State Department has already accused Russia of disinformation regarding the outbreak and there are surely others who do so for "clicks". To quote Dr. Omi from the Japan Times article “Nobody can predict whether we can contain the virus or put an end to this outbreak before the Olympics start. That’s anybody’s guess.” I would say the same holds for the Osaka basho. If it is cancelled I am sure it will be because events have gotten significantly worse and if it is held I am sure it will be safe. All of this minute by minute speculation though is neither informative, sometimes incorrect, and incites fear. I would recommend listening to the WHO and country health authorities for accurate information and let the rest of this "reporting" go as it is often misleading even if they mean well.
  4. Ginkitsune

    Corona and sumo

    Just want to state that this as it is incorrect. Even with early treatment some compromised patients will die or have severe comorbidity from the flu which is why there are high risk groups (infants, elderly, diabetics, etc) who should receive the annual flu vaccine. Also the Bloomberg article that has been posted regarding Japan's response to the virus reports the comments of primarily economists who have little expertise commenting on medical issues. The infectious disease physician in the article was commenting solely on conditions onboard the cruise ship. At this time there is still too much unknown to confidently state what is going to occur but based on all recent outbreaks it is highly likely that this will be contained in the near future. To state that the only way to control transmission is to restrict people's movements and gatherings is alarmist although there will likely continue to be restrictions on people who have been in infected areas of China until the outbreak is controlled there and some events may be affected by that like the Tokyo marathon.. As Kintamayama has pointed out there seems to be a little hysteria at this point.
  5. Ginkitsune

    Corona and sumo

    This is somewhat overstated in my opinion. Japanese are concerned about transmission of the virus but probably more concerned at this point on its effect on the travel industry and global supply chains, much like the rest of the world. The Japanese government's response with the cruise ship Diamond Princess was mishandled by leaving quarantined passengers without adequate infection protection while on board however, all other cases have been handled and so far contained using standard infection protocols as those used in the US or Europe. I don't know what is meant by "extraordinary measures" but I would find it highly unlikely that severe travel bans or large scale quarantines of cities as those seen in China would ever be employed. It is still relatively early in the outbreak as China restricted information about the outbreak to international experts until recently. As more is understood about the virus such as mode of transmission, can non-symptomatic patients transmit the virus, and most effective anti-viral treatments, the rate of infection should decrease. Of course since these are unknown at the moment anything is possible however the world's response to other outbreaks such as SARS and MERS suggest a more rapid control over transmission rates.
  6. Ginkitsune

    Makunouchi yushos in 2020

    1x Tokushouryu 1x Hakuho 1x Takakeishou 2x Asanoyama 1x Shoudai
  7. Ginkitsune

    Ozekis and Yokozunas for January 2021 - let them rise up!

    Hakuho Y Takakeishou O Asanoyama Hakuho will remain somewhat competitive / oft injured but decide to hang on to pursue some obscure record like most career wins by a yokozuna returning from kyujo.
  8. Ginkitsune

    Hakuho - 16th time of asking

    No zensho
  9. Ginkitsune

    GTB Natsu May 2019-invitation and final results

    Correct. I type as well as I make selections.