Ryoshishokunin

M18W is possible--only 6 rikishi are required in the Three Ranks.

HAHAHAHA. We all so smrt. I considered Yutakayama, but I couldn't figure out a combination of results that would make it happen. (Also, this torikumi is super weird. Good thing they saved all those San'yaku bouts for the last day...)

I think enho is slightly more likely, but i have to 15. Tokushoryu

So---yes, it's complicated. When everyone's getting underpromoted by the numbers, banzuke luck gets odd. The larger the numbers, the more that's true. In general 1 win = 2 ranks stops being true at large (or small) enough win totals in practice. (it's worth slightly less.)

It depends on slots. Shodai is 'ahead' of Endo--1 win is two full ranks. On the other hand, all KK rikishi should be promoted if possible (which seems to especially happen at 'important' points). I.e. If they both make San'yaku, Shodai will be ahead of Endo. But if they don't, Endo makes it in and Shodai doesn't---unless they make extra slots or decide that Endo is "too far" behind Shodai to deserve the promotion. Clear as mud?

I expect that to happen. They've been pretty consistent about it lately, and this situation calls for it more than most. Makes our lives harder. (I'm still thinking about my pick. I tried yesterday to dodge the train, but all the Enho picks came in after mine. Sorry if I was the pied piper to doom.)

In the current state of things the yokozuna withdrawals have a huge amount of leverage: they can plausibly get 0-2 wins, or 11-14 wins, and almost nothing in between. If you guess right, you get a huge margin over those who do not. (~9 points) On the other hand, most other rikishi are worth a point, maybe two, over the field: if people mostly predict 7s and 8s for rank-and-filers (which they do) it's basically just a KK/MK picking competition for a point. That means you have to get ~9 rikishi right to make up for getting one yokozuna wrong. Teh Oops.

14. Enho

Per the sumodb, no, he's not. However, there may be an arrangement in place somewhere---for instance "everyone" knows that Sokokurai will inhert Arashio-beya on 29 March when current holder retires. (I don't know if "everyone" is correct, but that was reported somewhere.) Goeido might have something lined up for eventually, or his stock might just not be known publicly.

Would wager large amounts of money that's wrong. Try again.

I don't think so 13. Mitakeumi

Same reason there's two sekiwake and two komusubi. There's three ranks and someone's gotta be in 'em.

Nope, I just forgot that Abi had dibs on Mitakeumi between deciding that and getting to figuring out Hokutofuji's aite. Oopsie. 12. Endo

If you click through, you'll see that Waka's listed as Y1wYO in the db. ( http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=4095 ) I assume that the display formatting for YO ranks is flaky on account of it doesn't get used very much.

11. Mitakeumi