Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2018

[Atenzan 1,084]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I know what you meant.  But I will cry myself to sleep to know that language is changing that way.

That sort of thing is literally the most annoying thing ever. 

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

Don't know if it was on purpose, but it's funny as hell.

[Atenzan 1,084]

16 minutes ago, Sokkenaiyama said:

Don't know if it was on purpose, but it's funny as hell.

It was. 

[Asashosakari 20,288]

1 minute ago, McBugger said:

It was. 

Don't you mean "It totally wasn't on purpose at all" to continue the theme?

[Ack! 501]

Regarding the former sekitori, I can't see anyone who is currently ranked below Ms2 and over the age of 25 returning to juryo, I'm afraid.  I won't rule out Asabenkei, but the odds are against him.  I'm happy to see Masunoyama progressing back up the ranks, though.

[Asashosakari 20,288]

32 minutes ago, Ack! said:

Regarding the former sekitori, I can't see anyone who is currently ranked below Ms2 and over the age of 25 returning to juryo, I'm afraid.  I won't rule out Asabenkei, but the odds are against him.  I'm happy to see Masunoyama progressing back up the ranks, though.

I'm not counting out yet another comeback by Kitaharima, and Jokoryu may still put together the needed run one day if he avoids a Toyonoshima-style procession of injuries. Outside of those it does look bleak for the older guys - but on the other hand, who really expected Akiseyama to make it back up?

(And on the flipside, even though he's still just 25 I've pretty much written off Takaryu as the new Hishofuji.)

Edited January 28, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 6,401]

21 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

...but on the other hand, who really expected Akiseyama to make it back up?

Although he might not have expected it, we both know somebody who is quite happy about it.

[Ack! 501]

42 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm not counting out yet another comeback by Kitaharima, and Jokoryu may still put together the needed run one day if he avoids a Toyonoshima-style procession of injuries. Outside of those it does look bleak for the older guys - but on the other hand, who really expected Akiseyama to make it back up?

(And on the flipside, even though he's still just 25 I've pretty much written off Takaryu as the new Hishofuji.)

Akiseyama could get promoted this basho, in fact.  I was thinking about after this basho though, with the Ms2 criteria specifically for Asabenkei.  I agree -- Takaryu is proof that youth isn't everything.

[Gurowake 4,154]

8 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Wrong on all counts. Kyukotaisei is not about to get screwed. If he wins he will be promoted to Makuuchi. If he losses he won't. Terunofuji will be demoted to Juryo. Takayasu will not be promoted to Yokozuna even if he wins the yusho in Haru. 

Well, I would consider that an 8-7 at J1w is usually enough to get promoted, and this time it looks like he's going to get squeezed out by a lack of room and better promotion candidates, so I'd say he was screwed, even if he did have the chance to win his last match to get in.  He had the chance to win all the other matches that he lost as well.

[yorikiried by fate 2,038]

3 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Although he might not have expected it, we both know somebody who is quite happy about it.

I totally expected it. He's up for an Ozeki run in 2018 for sure after his definite back to back 15-0 Juryo yusho in the next two basho. Question: Should he be considered to be on a tsuna challenge after his upcoming two Juryo zensho yusho?

[Akinomaki 41,851]

1 minute ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I totally expected it. He's up for an Ozeki run in 2018 for sure after his definite back to back 15-0 Juryo yusho in the next two basho.

I expected it when I pointed him out as my favourite to lose - it usually won't go the way I like if I talk about it.

[Gurowake 4,154]

So Tochihiryu is toast, and we're going to have 2 super lucky promotions from Makushita.  The most likely candidates are Wakatakakage(7-0 Ms17e), Takayoshitoshi(5-2 Ms7e), Dewahayate(6-1 Ms13w), Enho(4-3 Ms6e), based on the order I think they would end up in Makushita based on the data I compiled years ago.  That's not necessarily going to be the criteria they use, for many reasons if not the fact that they've decided to stiffen the movement (reduce the amount each record gets moved) in upper Makushita a bit more.  Wakatakakage seems unassailable as the top candidate, and I expect Dewahayate to get favored as a former sekitori for the second spot because they have to promote someone well beyond where they should and they are very opposed to giving new promotions that way if they can help it..

[Gurowake 4,154]

A quick sketch of Juryo and upper Makushita, showing candidates for Ms15 that were left out (some of them in the top 15 ranks are lucky to get in).  This is by no means authoritative, and only a minimum of effort went into it.

Kyokutaisei(8-7 J1w)	J1	Takekaze(5-10 M13e)
Aminishiki(3-9 M10w)	J2	Kyokushuho(8-7 J4e)
Azumaryu(7-8 J2e)	J3	Meisei(8-7 J4w)
Sadanoumi(9-6 J7e)	J4	Tokushoryu(8-7 J5e)
Gagamaru(8-7 J5w)	J5	Chiyonoo(8-7 J6w)
Takanosho(9-6 J9e)	J6	Terunofuji(0-8 M10e)
Amakaze(8-7 J8e)	J7	Kotoeko(9-6 J10w)
Tsurugisho(7-8 J6e)	J8	Homarefuji(7-8 J7w)
Seiro(8-7 J10e)	J9	Daishoho(9-6 J13w)
Takagenji(8-7 J11w)	J10	Mitoryu(8-7 J13e)
Yago(5-2 Ms1e)	J11	Shimanoumi(5-2 Ms2w)
Terutsuyoshi(4-3 Ms1w)	J12	Tobizaru(4-3 Ms3w)
Akiseyama(4-3 Ms4w)	J13	Wakatakakage(7-0 Ms17e)
Dewahayate(6-1 Ms13w)	J14	Takanoiwa(0-0 J3e)
Takayoshitoshi(5-2 Ms7e)	Ms1	Enho(4-3 Ms6e)
Hakuyozan(5-2 Ms8w)	Ms2	Daiseido(4-3 Ms7w)
Tochihiryu(4-11 J12w)	Ms3	Asabenkei(3-4 Ms2e)
Osunaarashi(1-8 J8w)	Ms4	Akua(4-11 J14e)
Gokushindo(6-1 Ms17w)	Ms5	Tenkaiho(5-2 Ms14e)
Chiyonoumi(4-3 Ms10e)	Ms6	Tsurubayashi(5-2 Ms15e)
Kitaharima(3-4 Ms4e)	Ms7	Toyohibiki(0-0 J9w)
Kizaki(4-3 Ms11e)	Ms8	Yamaguchi(2-12 J12e)
Kizenryu(3-12 J14w)	Ms9	Ura(0-0 J11e)
Jokoryu(3-4 Ms5w)	Ms10	Wakamotoharu(3-4 Ms6w)
Kagamio(4-3 Ms14w)	Ms11	Murata(3-4 Ms8e)
Ichiyamamoto(5-2 Ms21e)	Ms12	Kaisho(7-0 Sd8w)
Shonannoumi(3-4 Ms9e)	Ms13	Daishoryu(4-3 Ms16w)
Nionoumi(6-1 Ms35e)	Ms14	Satoyama(4-3 Ms20w)
Tokushinho(5-2 Ms28w)	Ms15	Oiwato(5-2 Ms29e)
Kiribayama(4-3 Ms21w)	Ms16	Gochozan(4-3 Ms22w)
Tamaki(3-5 Ms10w)	Ms17	Keitenkai(6-1 Ms44e)

[Akinomaki 41,851]

Based on my un-liking, I'm sure Takayoshitoshi will get promoted.

[rzombie1988 159]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Well, I would consider that an 8-7 at J1w is usually enough to get promoted, and this time it looks like he's going to get squeezed out by a lack of room and better promotion candidates, so I'd say he was screwed, even if he did have the chance to win his last match to get in.  He had the chance to win all the other matches that he lost as well.

Exactly.

8-7 at J1 would have been enough in any other basho. It's been a LONG time since I can recall no one from M14 on going makekoshi.

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by rzombie1988

[Yubinhaad 11,977]

11 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Out of curiosity, do you count Kyushu 1998 with Toyozakura and Nomura?

No, for my trivia purposes it's just those who actually fight eight bouts, not those who had a kyujo but ended up getting that "8th round" bout. Fair point though.


Happy for Kaisho, who celebrates his 23rd birthday with the Sandanme yusho. Maybe there's something to this shikona change stuff after all! Incidentally I learned the other day that the second kanji is in honour of his father, Katsumi. A few pictures in the box.
 

Spoiler

An oshidashi win over Tochikodai in the Sandanme yusho kettei-sen.

Kachinanori from Shikimori Shiho.

Receiving the yusho certificate from Dewanoumi-oyakata (former Maegashira Oginohana).

The certificate was on display at the Asakayama-beya senshuraku party later. J-Pop group WenDee gave a performance and posed for pictures with the birthday boy.

 

[Asashosakari 20,288]

Day 15 (results, text-only results):

   2-3-10 Hakuho        Y1   Kisenosato   1-5-9
    11-4  Kakuryu       Y2
     8-7  Goeido        O    Takayasu     12-3

Senshuraku following a Day 14 yusho tends to be a bit of the proverbial after the Lord Mayor's show, and while the first half of makuuchi was a bit iffy in quality indeed, the late bouts managed to put on a good show. Tochinoshin's final bout was for nothing but kensho and bragging rights from his side, but he and Endo produced quite the battle anyway, and the tournament champion eventually prevailed for his 14th win of the basho. The defeat has likely cost Endo his sanyaku debut though, as Chiyotairyu blasted through low-ranked opponent Daieisho for his kachikoshi and what should be a superior position in the promotion queue. Kotoshogiku had the chance to swing things in his favour in the next bout, but failed to come through a tough KK battle with Takarafuji. So, Chiyotairyu ought to be returning to the sanyaku ranks, 3 and a half years after his sole previous appearance.

Departing sekiwake Tamawashi went out on a high note, beating Okinoumi, and might not fall further than M1 on the next banzuke, so he should be right in the mix for a return to the titled ranks. Ozeki Takayasu collected his 12th win at sekiwake Mitakeumi's expense in the penultimate bout and finishes the basho as sole runner-up, the second time in his career that he's in jun-yusho position and the first time while ranked in sanyaku. The result is unlikely to start tsuna talk, but if he can keep up this form (always a big if with any sumotori) and the injury situation of the incumbent yokozuna trio continues to raise questions, he just might be challenging for promotion before too long.

And finally, the basho's last dohyo action saw Kakuryu end his second-week slide and pick up an 11th win against Goeido. It was a topsy-turvy basho for the sole yokozuna to make it all the way through, but it ought to have been enough to silence most critics for the moment. Of course, it'll be equally important for him to demonstrate that he can continue to remain active and do so with reasonably good results, because the basho wasn't so outstanding that he can just go back to missing most tournaments now. Goeido for his part ends the first basho of the year with eminently mediocre 8 wins, hardly looking like someone who might be able to take advantage of the current state of flux in the high ranks.

It came as no surprise that yusho winner Tochinoshin was decorated with two sansho - the shukun-sho and the gino-sho - in addition to all the champion's trophies. Furthermore a pair of kanto-sho were awarded to top division rookies Ryuden and Abi who both finished their debut basho with records of 10-5.

     8-7  Mitakeumi     S    Tamawashi     6-9  (x)
(x)  5-10 Takakeisho    K    Onosho       4-6-5 (x)

                        M1   Ichinojo     10-5  (o)
                        M2   Kotoshogiku   7-8  (x)
(o)  8-7  Chiyotairyu   M3   Tochinoshin  14-1  (o)
                        M4
                        M5   Endo          9-6

It looks as though Kyokutaisei may have blown his own top division debut at the finish line, but first things first: 14-year makuuchi veteran Takekaze looks to be headed to juryo after a second weekend loss wiped out the gains he had made in the days before, trying to recover from his disastrous first week. With him joining Aminishiki and Terunofuji on the way down and three slots available, any of the questionable juryo candidates would have been in a great position with a win, but Hidenoumi, Aoiyama and Kyokutaisei had all lost - the latter two doing so against Daiamami and Nishikigi who secured their last-minute KKs.

That should leave Hidenoumi as the #2 promotee to join Myogiryu by default, while slot 3 is a touch more difficult to decide. However, standard procedure would likely favour Aoiyama here, so Kyokutaisei is probably going to be stuck with the sideways move to J1 East despite being in a nominal promotion position. The closest candidate for an overdemotion would be Sokokurai with 6 wins at M12e after he beat Terunofuji today, and it appears virtually impossible that they might drop him an extra two and a half ranks to make room for a 4th promotion. All in all the situation looks a bit like something out of a mid-1990s banzuke nightmare, with the lowest 8 maegashira all achieving kachikoshi.

(x) 0-8-7 Terunofuji    M10  Aminishiki   3-9-3 (x)
                        M11
(o)  6-9  Sokokurai     M12
(x)  5-10 Takekaze      M13  
                        M14
                        M15  Nishikigi     8-7  (o)
                        M16
(o)  8-7  Daiamami      M17  ---

(o) 10-5  Myogiryu      J1   Kyokutaisei   8-7  (?)
(x)  7-8  Azumaryu      J2   Aoiyama       9-6  (?)
                        J3   Hidenoumi    10-5  (o)
(x)  8-7  Kyokushuho    J4
(x)  8-7  Tokushoryu    J5

It was a competitive enough bout, but Kizenryu was even unable to beat low-ranked makushita fill-in Tamaki today, so his 8th juryo appearance ends at 3-12, his worst result yet. Tochihiryu and Akua added one more loss to their tallies as well, so Tochihiryu is now also absolutely impossible to keep in juryo and the existence of 7 promotion slots has been assured. 5 of them will surely go to those with KK in the top 5 ranks, beyond that it becomes quite the guessing game.

The last two bits of relevant makushita action saw Takayoshitoshi defeat top-ranked Terutsuyoshi for his 5th win, while Daiseido failed to follow along against Tenkaiho.

                        J8   Osunaarashi  1-8-6 (x)
                        J9   Toyohibiki   kyujo (x)
                        J10
(x) kyujo Ura           J11
(x)2-12-1 Yamaguchi     J12  Tochihiryu    4-11 (x)
                        J13
(x)  4-11 Akua          J14  Kizenryu      3-12 (x)

(o)  5-2  Yago          Ms1  Terutsuyoshi  4-3  (o)
                        Ms2  Shimanoumi    5-2  (o)
                        Ms3  Tobizaru      4-3  (o)
                        Ms4  Akiseyama     4-3  (o)
                        Ms5

     4-3  Enho          Ms6
     5-2 Takayoshitoshi Ms7  Daiseido      4-3
                        Ms8  Hakuyozan     5-2
                        ...
                        Ms13 Dewahayate    6-1
                        ...
     7-0  Wakatakakage  Ms17

There's almost nothing to go on in trying to puzzle out the likely two extra promotees, except for two things: Daiseido is clearly out, being in inferior position compared to both Enho and Takayoshitoshi, and Takayoshitoshi ought to be ahead of Enho. But beyond that...

The most obvious point of attack will be Wakatakakage's yusho-winning record. Leaving aside the unusual Kyushu 2003 tournament which was followed by the addition of 4 new sekitori spots and correspondingly many promotions including a 7-0 from just outside the top 15 ranks, it's nearly impossible to find similar situations. One has to go back all the way to Aki 1991 to find another basho that satisfies the following two conditions: 1) a 7-0 record between Ms16 and Ms20, and 2) the available promotion slots were not exhausted merely by kachikoshi in the top 5 ranks. Unfortunately, it's clear that the banzuke-making in those days was quite different from today's and probably not much can be derived from the decisions made back then. (Most importantly, there's no way that Ms9w 6-1 would get promoted ahead of Ms5e 4-3 now, nor that Ms9w 6-1 would be promoted to take the place of the equivalent of J10w 5-10.)

So, it's pretty much all up to the whims of the banzuke committee as currently constituted. As Gurowake said above, the only candidate that would help them avoid handing out lucky first-time promotions is ex-juryo Dewahayate, but unfortunately he's also in what I would consider the worst position. Consequently, my guess is that Takayoshitoshi will be taking one of the slots, and that the other one is between Enho and Wakatakakage. I'm leaning towards Enho, because it avoids them having to rejustify the Ms15 in/out line the next time somebody goes 7-0 just below it. (The most deserving candidate is clearly Wakatakakage, though.)

-----

(Yusho playoffs here eventually, and videos via Jason for now: jonokuchi and jonidan, sandanme and juryo)

And then we had the various remaining yusho decisions, led by the juryo division. Frontrunner Hidenoumi fell against Takagenji in a back-and-forth bout and lost out on the chance to secure the yusho right away. Previous leader Kotoeko was already taken out of the race earlier in defeat by Gagamaru, so it was up to Myogiryu and Aoiyama to put themselves into the playoff picture. Myogiryu succeeded in doing so against Seiro, but Aoiyama wasn't able to follow up and lost to Daiamami in his makuuchi visit.

With those preliminaries in the books the stage was set for 4 different divisional playoffs, the first time with that many since Kyushu 2010, the first time with 4 straight head-to-head playoff battles since Kyushu 2008, and the first time since Hatsu 1996 when those 4 matches were all on at this time during the session, i.e. not involving a later makuuchi playoff. (Although Hatsu 1996 had that as well to make it 5 playoffs that basho.)

First up was the jonokuchi championship, to be decided between rookies Kototebakari and Tsukahara who were still teammates at Saitama Sakae just a few months ago. Kototebakari seemed to be thrown for a loop by the collision of their heads at the tachiai and lost the match right then and there, so the yusho goes to Tsukahara in a bit of a surprise, also gaining him some high-value revenge for his loss in their regular Day 8 bout.

The hometown duel in jonidan saw Shingaku out of the blocks quickly and driving back Kaiho, but the bigger and higher-ranked man took the couple of seconds onslaught and proceeded to execute a strong slapdown for the win and the championship. With the yusho in the bag, 22-year-old Kaiho should be returning to near his career-high rank of a year and a half ago, from which injury sent him all the way to maezumo.

The sandanme decision was another quick affair, although this one played out in outright dominant fashion. No trouble for today's 23-year-old birthday boy Kaisho in defeating newcomer Tochikodai. Kaisho was previously as high as Ms18 back in 2016 before hit by a fairly major loss of form and presumably injury, though not big enough to take him out of honbasho completely. He'll be going back up there now via the express lane and should find himself somewhere between Ms10 and Ms15 on the Haru banzuke. Tochikodai will be ascending to makushita as well (around the Ms50 mark), for what will be only the 19-year-old's 7th tournament.

And finally the playoff in juryo, in which Hidenoumi had the chance to atone for his earlier loss and take the yusho at the second time of asking. Unfortunately for him Myogiryu was having none of that, and after a bit of a standstill Myogiryu dragged the action towards the tawara to execute a clever uwatenage while headed out of the dohyo. It's his third juryo yusho, coming more than six years after the previous two, and putting him on a list with just 18 others who have won three or more titles in sumo's second division.

That's all for Hatsu basho! Next up on the agenda: The banzuke committee will be meeting on Wednesday, following which we'll find out how they've resolved the juryo mess, and then on Friday the Kyokai members will be electing their executive leadership for the next two years. See you in other threads for that. Thanks for reading! 

Edited January 28, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Yamanashi 4,088]

46 minutes ago, Yubinhaad said:

The certificate was on display at the Asakayama-beya senshuraku party later. J-Pop group WenDee gave a performance and posed for pictures with the birthday boy.

As Mel Brooks would say, "It's good to be the Yusho winner!"

 

[Bumpkin 438]

10 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Masunoyama back to makushita next basho, for the first time since Aki 2015.

Yes, but will we ever see him in Juryo again. I hope so.

[Highway 46]

Darn, so looks like not quite certain at all that Aoiyama will be back in makuuchi...waiting game...

[Ashigara 2]

I'm hoping that Aminishiki was taking the opportunity to finish out a final Basho in makuuci before retirement, so maybe one extra slot in Juryo & handily resolving the Enho / Takayoshitoshi question. 

Probably wishful thinking though....

[Feginowaka 53]

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

...the existence of 7 promotion slots has been assured. 5 of them will surely go to those with KK in the top 5 ranks, beyond that it becomes quite the guessing game.

                        J8   Osunaarashi  1-8-6 (x)
                        J9   Toyohibiki   kyujo (x)
                        J10
(x) kyujo Ura           J11
(x)2-12-1 Yamaguchi     J12  Tochihiryu    4-11 (x)
                        J13
(x)  4-11 Akua          J14  Kizenryu      3-12 (x)

 

What about 8 promotions?
I think you forgot Takanoiwa as demotion #8

[Kishinoyama 625]

3 minutes ago, Feginowaka said:

What about 8 promotions?
I think you forgot Takanoiwa as demotion #8

He is going to stay at the same Juryo rank because of his 'injury'.

[Kawabata 270]

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Thanks for reading!

Thanks for the excellent thread + analysis

[Dapeng 236]

48 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

He is going to stay at the same Juryo rank because of his 'injury'.

Maybe they'll create an extra J-15e for next basho only for the Takanoiwa so there are still 8 open positions in juryo, or else not fair for those struggling makushitas.

Edited January 28, 2018 by Dapeng