Ack!

Natsu 2023, Final Only 2 of 17 did not get their KK this basho. That's got to be some kind of record. M5e Kinbozan: 4-11 (9 KK, 74-36) Sd, Ms yusho J8e Ochiai: 14-1 (4 KK, 31-6) Ms1w Kawazoe: 5-2 (5 KK, 23-12) Ms13e Takahashi: 6-1 (6 KK, 36-6) Jk, Jd yusho Ms13w Kazekeno: 5-2 (7 KK, 39-10) Jk yusho Ms15w Toshunryu: 3-4 (5 KK, 30-9-3) Sd yusho Ms40e Toseiryu: 4-3 (8 KK, 37-18-1) Ms41e Takerufuji: 6-1 (4 KK, 26-2) Jk yusho Ms49e Otani: 5-2 (5 KK, 28-7) Jk yusho Sd33e Oyamada: 4-3 (6 KK, 26-13-3)* Sd59w Kazenoumi: 6-1 (3 KK, 18-3) Jk yusho Sd60e Kotosato: 4-3 (3 KK, 16-5) Sd87e Gohakuun: 6-1 (3 KK, 17-4) Sd88w Gonowaka: 4-3 (3 KK, 14-7) Jd18e Tsuru: 4-3 (3 KK, 14-7) Jd28w Kazeeidai: 5-2 (3 KK, 14-7) Jd29e Kosei: 5-2 (3 KK, 14-7)

In no case has anyone been promoted to komusubi with 8 wins below M6w. In two of two cases where both komusubis posted 7-8 records, K1e survived and K1w was demoted.

That's the kind of train wreck I was talking about. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

If you don't mind, I'll teach you to fish rather than give you one. Follow this link I sent before, click "modify query" at the top, change the wins from 7 to 6, and hit the submit button at the very bottom. It took me a while to get the hang of the query tool, but it opened so many doors once I did. Hope this helps!

It's possible, but extremely rare. Reference the middle of these three cases where an 8-7 M3w Aminishiki was denied in favor of keeping 7-8 K1e Tochinoshin. The question of who is going to be komusubi next basho is wide open!

Yep!

Worst case is neither komusubi nor anyone in the joi makes KK. I don't know if that's even possible given the remaining four days of matchups that *someone* has to win, but it's fun to imagine that train wreck!

I think the trio of Ichiyamamoto, Kagayaki and Mitoryu you mentioned are all likely to fall. Once the dust settles, I think Kotoshoho will have a better case for survival than these three. The M17e slot seems to be a safety net such that only bad banzuke luck would push him down to Juryo, and I foresee M17w coming back also. Also, I regret that Takarafuji is still vulnerable and not looking particularly genki. After losing Tochinoshin to retirement already, I don't think I could stand to see him go as well. In any case, I see at least four slots available, if not possibly more.

I don't foresee either forcing a extra komusubi slot either. In fact, no one is making a strong case even to fill a vacancy. So much so that I am tracking the far-out chances for Tobizaru, Ura and Asanoyama, among others. Given the wreckage left in the joi by the sanyaku, it seems anyone komusubi or below with 7 wins has a solid chance of staving off any demotion at all.

I have him on the bubble, surviving depending on the amount of banzuke luck to go around. Once beyond 11 or 12 losses, additional losses tend to get treated a bit more leniently. I have not had a lot of success predicting demotions with that many losses, and I think that inaccuracy is all due to the variability of banzuke luck.

Daishomaru's first KK since Sep 2021 -- that's 9 consecutive MKs, although July 2022 was a Covid-shortened 3-3-1 that at least had a chance at MK.

Natsu 2023, Nakabi (Day 8) Halfway through the basho we already have four eager beavers who have claimed their KKs. Not content to debut on The Wall in Juryo, Ochiai seems determined to make his sophomore appearance in Makuuchi! Another interesting possibility is Wallees Takahashi and Otani facing off in the Makushita yusho race. Thus far, only Kinbozan and Tsuru have losing records. After being nearly scared off the dohyo facing the yokozuna on day 7, Kinbozan was unable to recover against Nishikigi. He has the unfortunate luck to be used as a spare joi member for Isegahama rikishi who cannot face each other. Endo's withdrawal may spare him the same fate against joi members of Oitekaze beya. M5e Kinbozan: 3-5 (9 KK, 73-30) Sd, Ms yusho J8e Ochiai: 8-0 (3 KK, 25-5) Ms1w Kawazoe: 3-1 (4 KK, 21-11) Ms13e Takahashi: 4-0 (6 KK, 34-5) Jk, Jd yusho Ms13w Kazekeno: 3-1 (6 KK, 37-9) Jk yusho Ms15w Toshunryu: 2-2 (5 KK, 29-7-3)* Sd yusho Ms40e Toseiryu: 3-1 (7 KK, 36-16-1) Ms41e Takerufuji: 3-1 (3 KK, 23-2) Jk yusho Ms49e Otani: 4-0 (5 KK, 26-5) Jk yusho Sd33e Oyamada: 2-2 (4 KK, 24-12-3)* Sd59w Kazenoumi: 3-1 (2 KK, 15-3) Jk yusho Sd60e Kotosato: 2-2 (2 KK, 14-4) Sd87e Gohakuun: 3-1 (2 KK, 14-4) Sd88w Gonowaka: 3-1 (2 KK, 13-5) Jd18e Tsuru: 1-3 (2 KK, 11-7) Jd28w Kazeeidai: 4-0 (3 KK, 13-5) Jd29e Kosei: 3-1 (2 KK, 12-6)

Natsu 2023 starting lineup It looks like my posting didn't actually post, so better late than never! M5e Kinbozan: (9 KK, 70-25) Sd, Ms yusho J8e Ochiai: (2 KK, 17-5) Ms1w Kawazoe: (4 KK, 18-10) Ms13e Takahashi: (5 KK, 30-5) Jk, Jd yusho Ms13w Kazekeno: (6 KK, 34-8) Jk yusho Ms15w Toshunryu: (5 KK, 27-5-3)* Sd yusho Ms40e Toseiryu: (7 KK, 33-15-1) Ms41e Takerufuji: (3 KK, 20-1) Jk yusho Ms49e Otani: (4 KK, 22-5) Jk yusho Sd33e Oyamada: (4 KK, 22-10-3)* Sd59w Kazenoumi: (2 KK, 12-2) Jk yusho Sd60e Kotosato: (2 KK, 12-2) Sd87e Gohakuun: (2 KK, 11-3) Sd88w Gonowaka: (2 KK, 10-4) Jd18e Tsuru: (2 KK, 10-4) Jd28w Kazeeidai: (2 KK, 9-5) Jd29e Kosei: (2 KK, 9-5)

Brilliant!

8 different yusho winners in the last 8 basho...