Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2018

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6 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Are you counting times of mass demotion and the number of sekitori spots opening up, or not?

ah, good question.  excluding mass demotions, just the normal flux of sekitori demoted to makushita and rikishi promoted to juryo, with no special conditions.

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10 minutes ago, kawika said:

ah, good question.  excluding mass demotions, just the normal flux of sekitori demoted to makushita and rikishi promoted to juryo, with no special conditions.

7 is the most in normal circumstances in the 6-basho era.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&having=8&form1_rank=ms&form1_year=>1958&form2_rank=j

The only ones with more than 7 in this era are from the mass retirement in 2011 and subsequent one basho not filled to capacity that thus had more promotees the basho afterwards, as well as the one other time that the ranks of sekitori were expanded.

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27 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

7 is the most in normal circumstances in the 6-basho era.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&having=8&form1_rank=ms&form1_year=>1958&form2_rank=j

The only ones with more than 7 in this era are from the mass retirement in 2011 and subsequent one basho not filled to capacity that thus had more promotees the basho afterwards, as well as the one other time that the ranks of sekitori were expanded.

wow!  almost db query, domo domo!

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I wouldn't be surprised to see Tamawashi get demoted only to Komusubi. The banzuke makers have seemed to be rather lenient on higher ranked  makekoshi over the last year, while being more hesitant to overpromote barely KK maegashira. That's what I'd put on my GTB anyway. Three years ago I would have said Chiyotairyu or Endo for sure. Chiyotairyu-Endo would slot in nicely as a M1 pair, as they have about the same claim for the last Sanyaku spot.

As for Juryo promotions, I really don't understand the Enho promotion over Wakatakakage. The rule is a Ms1-Ms15 GUARANTEED promotion not probable so a yusho from just below that range in a basho with a complete dearth of fillable records seems more reasonable than a 4-3 outside the Ms1-Ms5 zone. Good for Enho though.

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Well, only once in 72 cases has a 6-9 sekiwake been kept in sanyaku (66 years ago), whereas 8-7 M3 to komusubi is much more common. What recent placements lead you to believe the 6-9 rikishi has the edge?

I don't consider M3 to be far away from komusubi.

Edited by Katooshu

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Natsu 17-Nagoya 17

Takanoiwa M5E 5-7-3 - M7E

Ishiura M11W 8-7 - M8W

There were some rikishi in between them, and it's farther down in Makuuchi, but three years ago it would have been likely for the two to be interchanged. It was also a five win rikishi dropping two places instead of one but it seemed a little bizarre, there were some others too I can't remember in the last year that seemed similar.

KK rikishi is definitely more deserving though.

Edited by Yukiarashi

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2 hours ago, Yukiarashi said:

KK rikishi is definitely more deserving though.

BINGO!

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Although I posed the question, I do think Chiyotairyu will get the nod. I have a sneaking suspicion that if he had never been komosubi before, they may have kept Tamawashi in Sanyaku though. I guess we will never know...

If Endo gets the nod I guess my theory gets blown out the water mind you.

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Just messing with my GTB picks. It sure looks like Ishiura and Asanoyama are going to have to be under promoted to me. 

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