Basho Talk Hatsu 2018 (SPOILERS)

[Asashosakari 18,786]

5 hours ago, Feginowaka said:

In one of the few German Sumo books, I read the following:

"Only if a Sekiwake had an extraordinary record of 15-0 in a basho, it's enough for an immediate promotion to Ozeki".

We don't know if it's true or not, as there has been no 15-0 until now from a Sekiwake as far as I know.
And we also will not know after Hatsu 2018 as it's unlikely that Mitakeumi  will win all his 15 bouts.

Of course the same page also claims that only 1 in 500 rikishi will reach the ozeki rank, which is clearly nonsense...

[Yukiarashi 195]

14 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The question of Kisenosato's future will definitely come up at the YDC meeting on January 29th, including a possible ultimatum, says a reporter, .

What bothers me about this is that Kakuryu last year won a yusho in November 2016, four bashos later he's having intai "threats." That's even with a 10-5 satisfactory score in there too with three kyujo, two before day 5. Kisenosato has had FIVE straight kyujo after a yusho, two basho where he was in until day 10 and now it will "come up". I understand Kisenosato had two straight yusho and was the best rikishi in sumo this time last year, but Kakuryu had two and a half years even before that yusho of solid Yokozuna results with the occasional kyujo. I am a Kisenosato fan writing this too, but Kakuryu had to go six months knowing the next time he steps on the dohyo could be his last. Let's say Kakuryu did enter Kyushu and was 2-3 and then intaied. He's currently the best rikishi in sumo at 7-0 and we could have been a last minute kyujo away from no Yokozuna right now. I really don't want to see any rikishi's careers threatened at completely arbitrary moments and would rather them retire with honor on their own accord. But if we are, we need consistency. We're lucky Kakuryu's been able to handle the pressure and be 7-0 after almost 5 bashos off. 

[Rocks 1,807]

I think a lot of consideration is being given to the fact this happened to Kise so soon after promotion. Even Kakuryu would be given a break if he was looking at intai immediately after promotion. 

[Burajirotono 99]

Kise means high audience and money. He is doomed, but kyokai will continue to cash in with the public´s hope. 

[Asashosakari 18,786]

32 minutes ago, Yukiarashi said:

What bothers me about this is that Kakuryu last year won a yusho in November 2016, four bashos later he's having intai "threats." (...) but Kakuryu had two and a half years even before that yusho of solid Yokozuna results with the occasional kyujo.

I think that overstates the case a bit. Outside of that yusho where he admittedly looked nigh unbeatable, he went a year and a half with exactly one other result better than 10-5, and that was an 11-4. That's still acceptable yokozuna level, but far from solid. From such a low performance baseline it's not surprising that repeated kyujo would lead to intai murmurs, especially as his issue appeared to be a mounting collection of smaller injuries, not a single big one. It made the yusho look like a fluke at worst and a last hurrah at best. IMHO he got exactly the right treatment from the YDC - an appropriate amount of time off to cure all those niggling things, but coupled with the demand that he demonstrate he's over them.

It's not like he needed to be as good as he has shown this week - if he was 5-2 right now with generally good-looking sumo, that would have been perfectly fine to quash the intai voices.
 

32 minutes ago, Yukiarashi said:

Let's say Kakuryu did enter Kyushu and was 2-3 and then intaied. He's currently the best rikishi in sumo at 7-0 and we could have been a last minute kyujo away from no Yokozuna right now. I really don't want to see any rikishi's careers threatened at completely arbitrary moments and would rather them retire with honor on their own accord. But if we are, we need consistency. We're lucky Kakuryu's been able to handle the pressure and be 7-0 after almost 5 bashos off. 

I'm not sure what point this hypothetical is supposed to make, to be honest. Decisions have consequences, sometimes unfortunate ones. Yokozuna already get a lot more leeway than any other rikishi, and again, Kakuryu has received plenty of time off considering the types of injuries he was said to carry last year. If he'd entered Kyushu without having to, and he had bombed, that would have been on him. (Besides, why do you think that another major setback like that wouldn't have led to him voluntarily retiring? He wouldn't have had a crystal ball to know of his future 7-0 start in Hatsu either.)

Ozeki and below can afford to keep fighting until they cease being capable. Yokozuna are meant to keep fighting until they cease being excellent. Most yokozuna in history have probably left something on the table by choosing to retire when they did, but dragging themselves through an extended dull period just because there might be one last great basho at the end of the tunnel just isn't the done thing.

(That last point also applies to Kise. After 10 months of essentially no progress it's getting very dicey for him, too.)

Edited January 20, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Kishinoyama 582]

29 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

....Most yokozuna in history have probably left something on the table by choosing to retire when they did, but dragging themselves through an extended dull period just because there might be one last great basho at the end of the tunnel just isn't the done thing.

(That last point also applies to Kise. After 10 months of essentially no progress it's getting very dicey for him, too.)

Most is a good choice of words. I'm not sure how much pressure was put on Kitanoumi to retire starting in 1982 but he somehow managed a zensho in May of 1985. This after having more than two years of average results at best for a yokozuna. 

[Atenzan 1,074]

38 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Yokozuna already get a lot more leeway than any other rikishi, and again, Kakuryu has received plenty of time off considering the types of injuries he was said to carry last year. If he'd entered Kyushu without having to, and he had bombed, that would have been on him.

This is the aspect of yokozunahood that Kakuryuu is currently handling a lot better than Kisenosato, and what will probably ensure that he survives Kisenosato. 

Fabulous post, Pierre.  

[Benevolance 2,478]

15 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

Most is a good choice of words. I'm not sure how much pressure was put on Kitanoumi to retire starting in 1982 but he somehow managed a zensho in May of 1985. This after having more than two years of average results at best for a yokozuna. 

Since they were probably just happy that people could finally beat him regularly, they felt he could stay as long as he wanted. 

[Yukiarashi 195]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I think that overstates the case a bit. Outside of that yusho where he admittedly looked nigh unbeatable, he went a year and a half with exactly one other result better than 10-5, and that was an 11-4. That's still acceptable yokozuna level, but far from solid. From such a low performance baseline it's not surprising that repeated kyujo would lead to intai murmurs, especially as his issue appeared to be a mounting collection of smaller injuries, not a single big one. It made the yusho look like a fluke at worst and a last hurrah at best. IMHO he got exactly the right treatment from the YDC - an appropriate amount of time off to cure all those niggling things, but coupled with the demand that he demonstrate he's over them.

It's not like he needed to be as good as he has shown this week - if he was 5-2 right now with generally good-looking sumo, that would have been perfectly fine to quash the intai voices.
 

I'm not sure what point this hypothetical is supposed to make, to be honest. Decisions have consequences, sometimes unfortunate ones. Yokozuna already get a lot more leeway than any other rikishi, and again, Kakuryu has received plenty of time off considering the types of injuries he was said to carry last year. If he'd entered Kyushu without having to, and he had bombed, that would have been on him. (Besides, why do you think that another major setback like that wouldn't have led to him voluntarily retiring? He wouldn't have had a crystal ball to know of his future 7-0 start in Hatsu either.)

Ozeki and below can afford to keep fighting until they cease being capable. Yokozuna are meant to keep fighting until they cease being excellent. Most yokozuna in history have probably left something on the table by choosing to retire when they did, but dragging themselves through an extended dull period just because there might be one last great basho at the end of the tunnel just isn't the done thing.

(That last point also applies to Kise. After 10 months of essentially no progress it's getting very dicey for him, too.)

Sorry for the long quote

I guess it's just more a matter of opinion. In my opinion, despite his injuries in the last year I never doubted Kakuryu could return to form and win 10-12 a basho fairly consistently with the occasional yusho. Kisenosato I personally feel is past honor and just in denial at this point. Kakuryu has never been the type of Yokozuna to set the world on fire but is very consistent and does what a Yokozuna should do by being able to win a Yusho at any time. Before his yusho in Kyushu '16 he had been slightly declined for a while but not worthy of the very sudden intai threat he got if you ask me. Kisenosato meanwhile has had a lot larger of a sample size to show he's done. Instead of pulling out early like Kakuryu did he stayed in it longer, which showed good fighting spirit, but only caused more embarrassment over a longer period of time. A rikishi can tell more than anyone else when he's done and should be the one to retire himself. A few rikishi though keep going (Kitanoumi) so I think it's good to have the YDC there to provide some expectations. 

I didn't elaborate earlier on my hypothetical Kakuryu basho. My point was more that even for Yokozunas, saying "the next time you go kyujo we'll make some decisions" seems rather harsh. I think there should be a multi-basho judgement period for underperforming Yokozunas. He could have started 2-3 for various reasons, new injury, adjustment after three bashos, or just poor performance. But either way such a bad start would have "compelled" him to retire when he still had a lot of strength. I understand Yokozunas should be able to handle pressure and Kakuryu excels at that, but for a guy that just won the yusho nine months earlier and didn't see day five on two bashos, "Next kyujo, you're done" seemed a little harsh to me. The YDC's presence needs to be there, but to all of a sudden say "Your careers on the line" next basho you enter or with the Hakuho thing, order him to stop using kachiage immediately and not give a few basho to change his technique over just seems harsh. Their inconsistency drives me nuts, I remember they criticized Harumafuji for being 9-6 in between three zenshos, but now with the performance of Kisenosato we get a "it will come up." There needs to be an official "get your crap together period" from the YDC before any intai threats. Even with Kisenosato right now I'd give him a behind the curtain next three bashos you enter go atleast 10-5 in two of them or recommended intai. I do appreciate the time off they give them though to recover from injuries.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

37 minutes ago, Yukiarashi said:

I guess it's just more a matter of opinion. In my opinion, despite his injuries in the last year I never doubted Kakuryu could return to form and win 10-12 a basho fairly consistently with the occasional yusho.

One never knows, really. Most people expected Musashimaru to return from his wrist issue and keep going for a while longer, but it never healed properly, ruining one of his main offensive weapons and then he was just...done. It's great to see that Kakuryu has attained what looks like full fitness again, but his foot/ankle problems certainly had the potential to end in a similar way, considering how much he depends on mobility for his sumo.
 

37 minutes ago, Yukiarashi said:

 I think there should be a multi-basho judgement period for underperforming Yokozunas. He could have started 2-3 for various reasons, new injury, adjustment after three bashos, or just poor performance. But either way such a bad start would have "compelled" him to retire when he still had a lot of strength. I understand Yokozunas should be able to handle pressure and Kakuryu excels at that, but for a guy that just won the yusho nine months earlier and didn't see day five on two bashos, "Next kyujo, you're done" seemed a little harsh to me.

I think you underestimate the level of nuance the YDC is capable of when it comes to the big decisions. They're not looking for certain win totals, they're looking for sufficient overall performance. And the difference between ring rust and ineffectiveness is usually pretty apparent. Nobody - not the YDC, not the public at large - is going to demand the head of a returning yokozuna who just gets a couple of unlucky breaks while his sumo otherwise looks good.

That aside: The main pressure came from Kakuryu's own shisho anyway, before the YDC had offered any kind of opinion. He clearly thought that Kakuryu's yokozuna stint had reached the "shape up or ship out" stage, and it's to their mutual credit that they've drawn the right conclusions from that subsequently. (Something that can't be said about Kisenosato and Tagonoura at this point.)
 

37 minutes ago, Yukiarashi said:

Their inconsistency drives me nuts, I remember they criticized Harumafuji for being 9-6 in between three zenshos, but now with the performance of Kisenosato we get a "it will come up." There needs to be an official "get your crap together period" from the YDC before any intai threats. Even with Kisenosato right now I'd give him a behind the curtain next three bashos you enter go atleast 10-5 in two of them or recommended intai. I do appreciate the time off they give them though to recover from injuries.

No offense intended, but the absolute last thing sumo needs are more fixed targets like that, not least because that kind of stuff promotes the danger of match-fixing in the worst way.

The YDC barks a lot, because that's their job. But they rarely bite. No need to overreact (or even take it personally, as I've seen some people do) every time a yokozuna gets criticized for this or that, or gets asked to perform better.

Edited January 21, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Yukiarashi 195]

I have quite enjoyed this basho. Even though it isn't, Kakuryu has still had an every day might be his last determination it's seemed. Everyone it seems has been doubting him really since he was promoted and it's great to see him do so well. 3 Yushos during the Hakuho era is quite the accomplishment even for another Yokozuna. He has some of the best manners of a Yokozuna and I've never seen him mad before after a bout. I would still prefer an underdog to win the yusho, but it would still be nice for him to show everyone how could he can be. 

Kisenosato is a mess right now. He needed to take advantage of himself putting everyone in tears after Haru and had surgery and taken the time off. With the injury healed now he lost strength in it and I can't see him making it past this year sadly.

Unlike past years, I couldn't tell you the next Yokozuna right now. Goeido I thought could turn the corner until the other day, Takayasu just doesn't have it yet, Mitakeumi maybe, Hokutofuji maybe, but we can't forget about the Indomitable Akiseyama!

[Rigel 62]

If I'm Kisenosato, I'd just get the surgery now, and flat-out tell the YDC and the public that I made a terrible mistake by not getting it done before. I now need 6 months to rehab, and if you want me to quit, thats your decision, but I want to try and heal for a comeback.

He won't do that because of cultural issues.

Edited January 21, 2018 by Rigel

[Bumpkin 438]

I'm not a doctor but it's my understanding that it's too late for Kisenosato to have surgery on his left pectoral muscle that was injured last March. He has to find a way to do "Yokozuna sumo" or he will have to retire.

[Morty 1,480]

12 hours ago, Dwale said:

Silly Chiyoshoma, Shohozan is like 50% face, your noodly slaps cannot harm him! Seriously, though, that was exactly the wrong strategy. I credited him with more brains than that.

Yep, I thought to myself as it was happening that you don't beat Shohozan by slapping him in the face. That just makes him angry

[Morty 1,480]

15 hours ago, Yukiarashi said:

I don't know what's going on. Ichinojo has technique all of a sudden, 

Ichinojo always had technique. He just forgot about it for a while. Go back and watch his Makuuchi debut basho performance. He won most of those bouts with throws.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

26 minutes ago, Rigel said:

If I'm Kisenosato, I'd just get the surgery now, and flat-out tell the YDC and the public that I made a terrible mistake by not getting it done before. I now need 6 months to rehab, and if you want me to quit, thats your decision, but I want to try and heal for a comeback.

He won't do that because of cultural issues.

I've seen people say that it might be too late now anyway. Between the torn muscle having atrophied to some degree and the scar tissue build-up it's anyone's guess if there are any surgical fixes available to make him capable of top sports performances again, rather than simply get him "every-day life ready" so that he won't have permanent health issues.

[Morty 1,480]

Is Osunaarashi at 1-6 at J8 in danger of demotion to Makushita? How many more wins does he need to stave that off?  When he and Endo came up at the same time there was talk of them having a long and storied rivalry and both making Yokozuna, before injury and inappropriate medical treatment wrecked it for both of them. Very sad how injuries have made a couple of very promising rikishi end up with mediocre careers. I think Endo could still get there but Osunaarashi is just a shell of his former self. In an alternative universe both are currently injury free, both are now Ozekis and the big discussion in sumo is which one will make Yokozuna first...

[ryafuji 807]

4 hours ago, Kishinoyama said:

Most is a good choice of words. I'm not sure how much pressure was put on Kitanoumi to retire starting in 1982 but he somehow managed a zensho in May of 1985. This after having more than two years of average results at best for a yokozuna. 

Far from being pressured to retire, I think the opposite was the case - the Kyokai wanted him to carry on until the opening of the new Kokukigan (which he did, and then retired three days into the first tournament held there.)

Edited January 21, 2018 by ryafuji

[Yukiarashi 195]

33 minutes ago, Morty said:

Ichinojo always had technique. He just forgot about it for a while. Go back and watch his Makuuchi debut basho performance. He won most of those bouts with throws.

After he got his top knot he forgot it all. After that his new strategy became grab my opponent's mawashi, make him into a mattress and take a nap.

[Rocks 1,807]

Ichinojo is able to do the lean because his back must be okay. When he leans he gets stretched  out and if his back is hurting the others can twist a little and he goes with it to protect his sore back and gets thrown or pushed out. It seems  he is able to take the twisting with no pain right now so the others are left with nothing to do but try and lift and push  him out. Good luck with that.

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

1 hour ago, Morty said:

Is Osunaarashi at 1-6 at J8 in danger of demotion to Makushita? How many more wins does he need to stave that off?  When he and Endo came up at the same time there was talk of them having a long and storied rivalry and both making Yokozuna, before injury and inappropriate medical treatment wrecked it for both of them. Very sad how injuries have made a couple of very promising rikishi end up with mediocre careers. I think Endo could still get there but Osunaarashi is just a shell of his former self. In an alternative universe both are currently injury free, both are now Ozekis and the big discussion in sumo is which one will make Yokozuna first...

I'd say a 5-10 is safe unless somebody from the top 30 in makushita gets a 7-0 yusho.

[Adil 232]

I've been meaning to comment on this for a few months now, but I've just been so damn busy. Plus, I have this bad habit of letting my posts ramble on for hundreds of words when I intend to make a two sentence comment. Oh gosh, looks like I'm going to do it again!

Some time during the last year (I've forgotten the exact time, but it appeared to happen overnight), Takayasu fine-tuned his tachiai. It is no longer the usual get up and charge. The trajectory of his charge is more vertical than horizontal, and he accentuates that by giving an upwards and backwards shove with both arms after slamming into his aite. The effect on his aite is a thing of beauty to watch. I have been amazed at the terrific impact and how it knocks the opponents back because of the sheer power and technique. Even the 200+ KG Ichinojo felt the power of that tachiai and he was knocked back a bit. To the untrained eye (myself included), sumo looks a sport that relies solely on brute strength, with two massive individuals trying to knock each other over with random shoves and throws, but things like Takayasu's new tachiai show the importance of technique. Everybody can throw a punch, but I remember reading the early 20th century boxing legend and world champion Jack Dempsey's book in which he goes into great detail on how to generate power in a punch to knock a guy out. I wouldn't have known how much thought and perfectionism goes into something that appears to be so simple.

Anyway, I can't be the only one who has noticed his new tachiai and its effect, so I am guessing other rikishi will start to use techniques to neutralize it, but I will enjoy it while it lasts. Incidentally, I just remembered that Takayasu's new tachiai looks similar to Chiyotairyu's wild jump-into-the-swimming-pool lunges during bouts, except Takayasu's tachiai appears to be more controlled. When Chiyotairyu connects one of his lunges (for lack of a better word), it is usually curtains for his aite, but because it is very difficult not to telegraph it, it is sometimes easy for Chiyotairyu's opponents to counter it.

I am now ending my post, trying to pretend to myself that I didn't do what I was afraid I will end up doing. 

  

 

[Toumorokoshi 7]

13 minutes ago, Adil said:

Some time during the last year (I've forgotten the exact time, but it appeared to happen overnight), Takayasu fine-tuned his tachiai. ...  I have been amazed at the terrific impact and how it knocks the opponents back because of the sheer power and technique. Even the 200+ KG Ichinojo felt the power of that tachiai and he was knocked back a bit.

You're quite right on all counts. When Takayasu's *new/improved* tachiai lands correctly it's something to behold. Like you I was pretty floored when he moved Ichinojo's 215kg back at the impact, despite losing the match, etc. I remember a few bashos ago he blasted Hakuho back at the tachiai too! At the time I felt like I'd never seen Hak moved back like that. It's a pretty deadly weapon in his arsenal

[Rocks 1,807]

Wow. terrible tachi-ai from Mitoryu but he still won. Dude is strong.

[Rocks 1,807]

Osunaarashi had Akua from the start, couldn't even push him out. No left leg. Akua spun him around like a doll and pushed him out. Osunaarashi is going to struggle not to drop to Makushita.