Aki Basho 2018 Discussion [SPOILERS]

[Eikokurai 3,437]

17 minutes ago, word20 said:

It seems that Hakuho would have lost if Onousho had been fast to follow up the side step with pushing  Hakuho out of the ring.

It does not seem to go quite the way for Tochinoshin to win the Yusho. Amazingly we have all yokozuna at 0 loses, that is unusual, because I have not

seen this happen before. 

Takakeisho. Onosho was in the shitaku-beya chilling out.

[Kintamayama 45,345]

Chiyotairyuu, asked who he was facing (Kisenosato) tomorrow: "I have no idea. It's not like I'm going to face a Polar Bear, so whoever it is, it's OK.."

Asanoyama, his "rival" Yutakayama out with an elbow injury: "The day that guy goes kyujo with an elbow injury, for some reason, I went and hurt my elbow as well. I'm in pain too.."

Okinoumi, getting his 500th career win in a close match: "I was totally overwhelmed but I managed to win in the end, so is that good, or should I be reflecting on what happened? I have no idea so all I can do is go out and drink some sake.."

Edited September 13, 2018 by Kintamayama

[Jakusotsu 5,995]

1 hour ago, specialweek 2 said:

Gee this yaocho bent is infesting this forum. Thank goodness there are many long time respected watches of sumo out weighing these trolls.

There's hardly anyone more respected and long time watching than Feginowaka, but you can't know that, of course.

[Kintamayama 45,345]

3 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

There's hardly anyone more respected and long time watching than Feginowaka, but you can't know that, of course.

And GTB master. Important. But he has been kidnapped by aliens.

[Benevolance 2,501]

53 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

It's his toe. And now he's half-blind too.

Has he tried gambarizing? I think he should gambarize. Gambarizing is the best and will cure what ails him. 

[Kintamayama 45,345]

2 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

Has he tried gambarizing? I think he should gambarize. Gambarizing is the best and will cure what ails him. 

Funny you should mention it..

Tochinoshin, getting six stitches yesterday on his cut eyebrow, losing to Mitakeumi quickly: "He managed to get inside.. My upper body was too high. Still, I can see normally.. I shall gambarize from tomorrow again!"

[mikawa 1,794]

How to push Ichinojo out - Mitakeumi on Day 4

How to push Ichinojo to the edge, only to give away a morozashi grip - Tamawashi on Day 5

How to push Ichinojo to the edge, thinking you've won the bout, only to realise (too late) that you haven't - Yoshikaze last basho

Edited September 13, 2018 by mikawa

[Fukurou 534]

What is up with Endo?

He finally broke that streak where he could not get KK when ranked M4 or higher. He fell back due to injury but is now back at M4 again - and has started out at 1-4. He's only faced 1 of the Sanyaku (losing to Ichinojo), so has several/all of them yet to face. I'm wondering if the guys at M1 and below will give him any help in reaching that elusive (for him) KK - he's 1-3 vs them so far. Maybe I should start a poll - will Endo win 7 of his next 10 matches?

[Jakusotsu 5,995]

Kotoyuki did a nice bee waggle dance after his bout.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

I found the shimpan decision on the Asanoyama v. Chiyonokuni bout to be rather enlightening ... or not.  

Onomatsu explained that the monoii was called to see whether or not Asanoyama's elbow was out first.  (Watching the replay, his forearm was definitely down first.)  But the judges ended up ruling along different lines (upholding the referee's decision).  The issue shifted to who was forced off their feet first, and it was ruled that Chiyotairyu's foot left the ground (i.e., tawara) before Asanoyama's foot left the dohyo.  The term "shi-ni-tai" was not used, but rather "tondeiru" (lit. flying - but 'falling' may also apply).

Shouldn't the judges make that their priority in monoii reviews (as a habit), rather than suggesting that what matters is who touched out first?  

I guess not all falls outside the ring involve both wrestlers leaving their feet.  But my impression is that a significant number do.

Edited September 13, 2018 by Amamaniac

[Feginowaka 53]

3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

And GTB master. Important. But he has been kidnapped by aliens.

Maybe it's just that my trust in Tochinoshin caused a loss in Bench today.
But anyway… I haven't been kidnapped by aliens and nonetheless think that there is yaocho in many bouts

[The Fat Cyclist 31]

Can I just say I was wrong about Kisenosato . . . . .  and am absolutely delighted to be so. He doesnt look right but he is winning so far & I think as his confidence returns he should continue to do so. Not that I am now predicting a yusho mind.

[Dapeng 235]

7 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Tochinoshin has only one eye. Yaocho? Really? Feginowaka? Are you sure aliens didn't kidnap you and replace you with Mike??

I thought the only place talking about yaocho is ST ......

[robnplunder 975]

4 hours ago, mikawa said:

How to push Ichinojo out - Mitakeumi on Day 4

How to push Ichinojo to the edge, only to give away a morozashi grip - Tamawashi on Day 5

How to push Ichinojo to the edge, thinking you've won the bout, only to realise (too late) that you haven't - Yoshikaze last basho

Ichinojo has been very entertaining to say the least.  He found interesting way to lose.   I look forward to his match against Takakeisho today.   I suggest he stands his ground until Takakeisho loses his balance.

[Rocks 1,809]

7 hours ago, Taikoubana said:

Anyone think there was some yaocho going on with Mitakeumi vs Tochinoshin today? That looked suspiciously by the book. (I have no idea whether it was or wasn't. I'm just curious about the general consensus.)

 

6 hours ago, Feginowaka said:

Come on, even my 77-year old mother would have shown more resistence than Tochinoshin!
That was a really lame defense.

One has to be blind or blue-eyed (or both) if one denies that there is NO yaocho in Sumo (especially in this fight today).

Tochinoshin just needs 8 wins and there is also still the OBSC that will help him.
Mitakeumi needs 11 wins, which is quite a bit more and therefore he needs every yaocho-yen to secure these wins.

This may get a little long so forgive me and it is JUST my opinion. For those they can't be bothered to read it:

TLDR Not yaocho, Tochinoshin lost the mental math and so the bout.

First what is yaocho, match fixing. It's the predetermination of the outcome of a bout by the mutual consent of the parties involved. The fact that a result could be determined prior to it's taking place does not make it yaocho. Do not confuse inevitability with predetermination, which is what I think happens with some people, not necessarily you 2 guys, do when they see yaocho everywhere in sumo, or in a given bout.  Nothing was predetermined here IMO.

For me, there are 2 factors, besides the obvious stuff like; rank, skill, size, history, injury, etc (the on paper stuff) that determines who will win a given match and why they did win a match.

1. Is the rikishi willing to risk, not intend,  injury, to himself or his opponent, if the match comes down to that? For most of these guys, on most days, the answer is no. They will occasionally based on friendship,  the possible reward available, etc. But most days, no. For others, the answer is yes. The Mongolians, at least the sekitori, are usually a yes. Which is why when they face each other you get the looks because they can not count on their opponent folding.  Ryuden is another which  is why he gets the stink eye a lot. But he wasn't always like that. This same dynamic is in effect for the use of tricks, like a henka.  For guys willing to risk injury, in a given bout, the tricks come out when they face each other. This has nothing to do with henka artists or when used to overcome an injury.

2.  How susceptible the rikishi is to what I call "mental math"? How much does he allow the circumstances as they are on that day or in that basho to effect how he approaches the match and the effort he puts out in the match itself. Non-Asian rikishi seem to be particularly susceptible to this, Mongolians the least. This is not meant to be a racial thing. They are many Japanese that aren't either and many that are.

Now, I will apply this to the Tochinoshin-Mitekeumi match:

1. Is Tochinoshin willing to risk injuries? Generally no. Given his history you can see why. Especially not against someone who is a friend, he trains with, and is in the same ichimon. At least not without a very big goal, like the Yusho or attaining a high rank, on the line. Mitakeumi is all of those those things and none of the rewards are on the line for Tochinoshin. Compare that to the match the day before with Tamawashi and you begin to understand the difference in attitude and effort.  Henka, Tochi? Not against Mitakeumi on an ozeki run for sure.

2. The mental math. Tochinnoshin on paper is better than Mitakeumi and the record shows that. a plus in Tochinoshin's mind. He's ozeki now, plus.  But after that he has nothing but minuses.

Tochinoshin is already injured and he was injured more the day before. He's lost a match. Tochinoshin had to go all out, twice, just the day before. Mitakeumi is the current yusho holder, on an ozeki run,  undefeated and uninjured. Mitakeumi is hyped and has every reason to go all out, even against a friend.

Tochinoshin is  kadoban but he's well on the way to a KK. He has tough matches coming up but Takayasu is injured and Goeido is Goeido, ready to blow any given match. Plus they are rivals now, not higher ranked. Kisenosato is doing well but he's hardly invincible looking. All of those matches will be easier than facing Mitakeumi currently.

The bout is in the first third of the basho. Mitakeumi does well then except for when he has reached a new level or rank, not the case here. Day 9 or 10 with Tochinoshin's back against the MK wall? Maybe a bit different.

 

Add all that up and you have Tochinoshin stepping on that dohyo thinking "Today probably isn't going to be my day".  Things need to go right for me at the tachi-ai. If they do I can still beat this guy. They didn't and Tochinoshin gave it up. That's inevitability, destiny, karma, fate, whatever you want to call it. But it isn't yaocho.

 

BTW, all of this was predictable BEFORE the basho even started which is why I chose Mitekeumi everywhere in the games and did not chose Tochinoshin as my pick where I had to pick an ozeki. Tochinoshin is injured and not at his best. Tochinoshin was going to face Mitakeumi early. Kisenosato and Takayasu will not bow out until an MK seems inevitable which means they are here to day 9 at least,  barring a very bad start or bad injury. Mitakeumi didn't know it but he was walking around with a win against an ozeki in his pocket the whole time.

 

 

 

[Akaoni 1]

Looks like Ura lost day 3, is he still hampered by his injury?  Any video available of his day 3 performance?

[Amamaniac 2,079]

10 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I predicted Mita's win b/c I believe Tochinoshin hasn't fully recovered.   Mr. T seems to be favoring his right knee.   If he is healthy, I don't think Mita could have beaten him so easily.

I had a different outcome expectation, actually.  You may well be right about Tochi not being fully recovered.  Another possibility is that his body was still beat up after the torinaoshi against Tamawashi the day before.  But if a recall correctly, Tochi and Mita practiced together prior to the Autumn Tournament, and Tochi was winning the majority of their successive practice bouts.  That was why I expected Tochi to win.

But as soon as Mita got a morozashi hold on Tochi's mawashi, Tochi knew he was going to lose...

[Joaoiyama 308]

Kisenosato looks like a boxer who spent a year and a half off the ring, which he should look because he is human. Ring rust is normal, comming back from an injury like that and having such great performance is extraordinary 

[Mufuu 13]

Well... the past five days of undefeated Yokozuna performances have been refreshing and honestly a quite a bit exciting, but it's hard to see this run progressing much further.  Kisenosato's victories have all been hard-fought nail-biters, and I figure Hakuho caught a bit of luck in not getting Okuridashi'd while presenting his backside to a flat-footed Takakeisho. It has been noted here that we have not seen 3 undefeated Yokozuna through day 4 (or more) since Haru, 1989 (Hokutoumi, Onokuni, Chiyonofuji) - that collective winning record will hold through day 11.  Beyond that, Futabayama, Terukuni, and Haguroyama each held spotless records through 12 days of Hatsu, 1943.

How far do you think this current streak will run?

Anyhow (and trivia aside)... I'm still waiting for Mitakeumi to mentally fall apart somewhere around day 8, but am hopeful he has left that habit behind him.

Also: dark horse Hokutofuji, anyone?

 

[Kawabata 270]

7 minutes ago, Mufuu said:

Also: dark horse Hokutofuji, anyone?

Hokutofuji is looking great this basho, but I think the dark horse at the moment has to be Yoshikaze after his performance last time round

[rhyen 1,842]

8 hours ago, word20 said:

It seems that Hakuho would have lost if Onousho had been fast to follow up the side step with pushing  Hakuho out of the ring.

It does not seem to go quite the way for Tochinoshin to win the Yusho. Amazingly we have all yokozuna at 0 loses, that is unusual, because I have not

seen this happen before. 

Someone is having the Nishikido moment. 

8 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Takakeisho. Onosho was in the shitaku-beya chilling out.

Nah, he would have been back in the heya preparing to entertain koenkai members. 

[Asashosakari 19,500]

Well, if Hakuho ever loses one to Takakeisho, it's almost certainly going to be in very embarrassing fashion for him, considering how their bouts have a tendency to look like a slapstick routine gone wrong (or right).

[Gooner 39]

7 rikishi with a 5-0 score... has this ever happened?

Kise keeps finding ways to win out of difficult situations. He deserves a lot of credit. I think his bouts have never been so entertaining as now. I hope it stays like this and I hope he keeps on winning.

[Kawabata 270]

3 hours ago, Akaoni said:

Looks like Ura lost day 3, is he still hampered by his injury?  Any video available of his day 3 performance?

 

[Highway 46]

Great to see all the big guys back and doing so well. Feels like a whole different ball-game compared to the last few bashos. Quietly rooting for Kisenosato.  But on the opposite end of the scale...my man Aoiyama is tanking a little bit here. A number of the bouts so far he starts pushing well, but then can't get the job done, and loses balance too easily. Needs to rethink his strategy.