Nagoya 2025 discussion (results)

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

Onosato is safe and won't be "forced" out at this point even if he drops his last three. Disappointing? Absolutely. Better than other yokozuna debut? Absolutely

[Chiyozakura 163]

I remember Musashimaru finishing the basho with five kinboshi given up. Kinboshi alone do not tell the story of a basho. The reason Onosato is at a higher risk of giving up kinboshi this time is because there are so few Sanyaku rikishi to face. If you have the usual six guys at the top two ranks plus two Sekiwake plus two Komusubi you only have to face six Maegashira, for Onosato it will have to be at least ten, or mabye even more if they give him Kotoshoho instead of Wakatakakage or Kotozakura. There is no way he withdraws this time unless he gets a serious injury. He still is in the Yusho race and only one win away from getting the 10 wins which is the minimum required of a Yokozuna to make it an acceptable basho. Losing to someone like Hakuoho or Oho this basho is not good but these things happen. Plus it is his debut basho where Yokozuna usually do not fare very well due to the promotion activities beforehand.

[Akinomaki 41,815]

On 23/07/2025 at 08:46, Akinomaki said:

Onosato pulled even with 4 previous new yokozuna for the most kinboshi given out by one, just shortly after Hoshoryu.

That can't be sufficient for him, as the one and only kind of yokozuna, he'll have to get the sole and never again reached record of handing out 4 kinboshi in his first basho as yokozuna 

And Onosato got that record now

He'll lose the mu-ni part though, if another one in the future pulls even

Edited July 25 by Akinomaki

[Akinomaki 41,815]

23 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Kotoshoho had a jun-yusho on his record and is in the lead with Aonishiki, he rather than Kusano is going to get a bout with Onosato. I don't think it's worth to scrap the bout with Wakatakakage, so if they stick to the pattern, Y-S should be next and then Y-M and the proper Y-O in the end 

On 23/07/2025 at 10:45, Akinomaki said:

to help avoid losses in a row, they give Onosato a rest day against sanyaku each time, because he has better results against those than against maegashira

They shouldn't have disrupted the pattern by giving Onosato 2 maegashira in a row. I hope they won't give him Atamifuji or Kusano next, but the proper Wakatakakage bout. 

- I'm fully content that he has the 4 losses now I predicted, I don't want him to revert to ozeki level and finish 9-6

Edited July 25 by Akinomaki

[Akinomaki 41,815]

The extreme scenario: tomorrow Kusano-Kotozakura and Atamifuji-Onosato, both win and Kotoshoho wins against Aonishiki, then the Y-O bout gets scrapped and Onosato gets Kusano on day 15

[Hankegami 598]

Nagoya 2025 Day 13 on the books.

Now, let's check out the arasoi: leaders, 11-2 Aonishiki... and Kotoshoho?!? Gracious goodness... Runner ups, 10-3 Atamifuji (whut?!?) and Kusano?! Nice san'yaku we got there.

Jokes aside, I'm stunned. Aonishiki is the least unlikely of this merry bunch up in that place. The guy looks the real deal and he's a joy to watch. Ichiyamamoto did his best, but the boy didn't just bulge. His immovability is most impressive. Kotoshoho... Kinboshi? Seriously? Fine, Onosato is clearly tired, but props to him for winning a match on the belt. I didn't know Kotoshoho knew belts did exist. He really seems in a time of grace when he can do the impossible. Atamifuji overpowered a certainly injured Kotozakura, but don't forget Four Tits is a bona fide heavyweight himself. This tells both how good is Atomic this tournament, and how bad KZK is. Finally, Kusano is the second least unlikely guy up there, despite his low rank. I was most positive that Kirishima would have given him another Wakatakakage experience, but for the third time in a row (Onosato, Kotozakura, and now Kusano) Kirby managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That sotogake from Kusano was sick anyway.

Now, let's talk about the final match-ups for Day 14 and 15. Onosato is most likely done with giving out kinboshi - or at least the JSA should make it sure about that. I believe they will revert him to his usual schedule: Wakatakakage on Day 14, and Kotozakura on Day 15. He's not out of contention yet - technically - but he needs a lot of luck for all the four top arasoi guys to lose their matches. In particular, Aonishiki and Kotosohoho should just collapse for Onosato to get back in the picture.

Yep, Aonishiki and Kotoshoho. But also Atamifuji and Kusano. They will likely face each other during the last two days at this point. The only guys who already faced each other were Kotoshoho and Kusano (Day 3, Kotoshoho won). Considering that Aonishiki and Kotoshoho have a lead, the worst it might happen is for them to lose on Day 14 and make level with the other two on Day 15. This would actually lead to a 2-men playoff in the worst case - instead of leaving them separately with the chance of up to a 4-men playoff. Hence, I predict Aonishiki vs. Kusano & Atamifuji vs. Kotoshoho on Day 14. If Kotoshoho (who cannot face Kusano) wins, we will get a Darwinian match Aonishiki vs. Kotoshoho on Day 15, otherwise we will get Aonishiki vs. Atamifuji, with Kusano and Kotoshoho free to roam around.

15 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

The extreme scenario: tomorrow Kusano-Kotozakura and Atamifuji-Onosato, both win and Kotoshoho wins against Aonishiki, then the Y-O bout gets scrapped and Onosato gets Kusano on day 15

That's another actual possibility, but I think they should play match-ups on Day 14 to thin down the pool of potential contenders. If they keep them apart they would actively engineer a 4-way 12-3 playoff. However, if Kusano wins (in my foreseen match-ups) he can well be paired against Onosato on Day 15. 

Edited July 25 by Hankegami
Many thanks to Akinomaki for correcting my maths

[Akinomaki 41,815]

3 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Onosato is most likely done with giving out kinboshi - or at least the JSA should make it sure about that. I believe they will revert him to his usual schedule: Wakatakakage on Day 14, and Kotozakura on Day 15. He's not out of contention yet - technically

If they pair Aonishiki and Kotoshoho, which they definitely will either on day 14 or 15, a 12-3 yusho is assured - Onosato and the other 9-4 are out of contention

[Jakusotsu 6,394]

3 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

If they pair Aonishiki and Kotoshoho, which they definitely will either on day 14 or 15, a 12-3 yusho is assured - Onosato and the other 9-4 are out of contention

So a Maegashira yusho is already booked, unless they go wild with the torikumi.

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

This is the first time ever that four maegashira lead the yusho race after day 13 with 10 or more wins. The closest contender was ... Hatsu 2025 when only Ozeki Hoshoryu crashed the party with 10 wins (and actually won the 12-3 yusho and yokozuna promotion).

Oh, and it's tied for the now 8-way lead with most maegashira at 10 or more wins after day 13.

Edited July 25 by Doitsuyama

[Hankegami 598]

4 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

If they pair Aonishiki and Kotoshoho, which they definitely will either on day 14 or 15, a 12-3 yusho is assured - Onosato and the other 9-4 are out of contention

Thanks, I didn't realize that their match-up in itself would avoid a potential 2 loss collapse. More the reason for withdrawing Onosato from kinboshi duty, though - putting him back among fellow san'yaku under-performers, I mean.

1 minute ago, Doitsuyama said:

This is the first time ever that four maegashira lead the yusho race after day 13 with 10 or more wins. The closest contender was ... Hatsu 2025 when only Ozeki Hoshoryu crashed the party with 10 wins (and actually won the 12-3 yusho and yokozuna promotion).

That's wild. The funny thing is that the current san'yaku is not particularly weak in itself. However, let's not forget that Aonishiki should have been Komusubi this tournament. The JSA is reaping what they sowed, also considering how the anointed Komusubi pair is doing right now (with all due respect to Takayasu, who is having a decent tournament but he could have also had it as a M1-M2). They cannot even put up the tradition argument, since them saving 6-9 Takayasu was unprecedented. In short, let's not forget that this equally unprecedented situation was forced and should not have taken place to begin with. 

[Kaninoyama 1,880]

Day 14- matchups are out.

Aonishiki - Kusano.

Kotoshoho - Kirishima. 

Atamifuji - Takayasu. 

 

 

Edited July 25 by Kaninoyama

[Kishinoyama 625]

Is this the first time that two withdrawing rikishi give their opponents 8 wins on the same day?

[Godango 1,092]

8 hours ago, Godango said:

It's crazy to think Onosato would withdraw. He's still very much in the race.

He still won't withdraw, though. 

[Akinomaki 41,815]

7 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Onosato is safe and won't be "forced" out at this point even if he drops his last three. Disappointing? Absolutely. Better than other yokozuna debut? Absolutely

Not the worst start as a new yokozuna, but a uniquely bad start

[RabidJohn 2,070]

Kinboshi are very significant to the hiramaku who earn them, and they're an additional cost for the NHK, but no yokozuna has ever been forced to resign for giving up 'too many'. 

Bloody well done to Kotoshoho, properly marked by purple rain.

I expected Aonishiki to beat Ichiyamamoto, but I didn't expect Kusano to be that good against Kirishima.

I'm not going to bemoan a hiramaku yusho. As I've already mentioned, I think it's great to have such talented new blood (and Kotoshoho!) in the division.

Edited July 25 by RabidJohn

[Asashosakari 20,249]

4 hours ago, Kishinoyama said:

Is this the first time that two withdrawing rikishi give their opponents 8 wins on the same day?

It is the second time after 1953.05, and the sixth time overall that it happens twice in the same basho (regardless of day).

(Bonus: the three times it happened to give a makushita opponent his kachikoshi, including last basho four months ago where I think we didn't note its rarity. No basho overlap with the sekitori query above, BTW.)

Edited July 25 by Asashosakari

[I am the Yokozuna 222]

What Kusano did to Kirishima, who at one point could/should/might have been on the path to yokozuna, was mightily impressive. There was control, intent, and no hesitation throughout the bout. Would be watching him closely in the next few tournaments to see how high he could go. 

Any idea what nictitates parings in juryo for all three of Ishizaki, Asanoyama and Kyokukaiyuu? One or two of, I could understand, but all of three of them?

[Kintamayama 47,226]

So they left all 9-4 guys with a chance. Very original torikumi-making. Kotoshouhou and Aonishiki need to lose tomorrow. If they get paired on day 15 that's that, but if they continue to not pair them against each other the current 4 loss guys are still in the race .

 

[Igordemorais 79]

I havent been keeping up with sumo so closely so I didnt really know Aonishiki

 

this guy is a phenom

 

disappointed in Onosato

[RabidJohn 2,070]

2 hours ago, Igordemorais said:

this guy is a phenom

So it would seem at present. Time will tell if he's got potential for the top.

2 hours ago, Igordemorais said:

disappointed in Onosato

He's coming off the back of double yusho/promotion celebrations, reporting his new rank to his hometown mayor, etc. It eats into preparation time.
He had a track record of following yusho with 9-6s before, so 10-11 wins this time would be an improvement. I'm not going to hold it against him.

[ViscountessNivlac 36]

34 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

So it would seem at present. Time will tell if he's got potential for the top.

He's coming off the back of double yusho/promotion celebrations, reporting his new rank to his hometown mayor, etc. It eats into preparation time.
He had a track record of following yusho with 9-6s before, so 10-11 wins this time would be an improvement. I'm not going to hold it against him.

And he is, at the very least, finishing the basho.

[Leoben 174]

Really impressed with Kusano today. His match gave me Yokozuna vibes. Not because I think either of them will get the rope (way too early to know with Kusano, probably too late for Kirishima), but because of how it played out. The speed at which they fought, the way it progressed, and how it ended made me feel like I was watching two Yokozuna going at it.

[Asashosakari 20,249]

5 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

So they left all 9-4 guys with a chance. Very original torikumi-making. Kotoshouhou and Aonishiki need to lose tomorrow. If they get paired on day 15 that's that, but if they continue to not pair them against each other the current 4 loss guys are still in the race .

It would shock me immensely if they don't do the senshuraku torikumi such that at least one 12-3 record is assured, even if Kotoshoho and Aonishiki both lose tomorrow.

Incidentally, Aonishiki - Atamifuji and Kotoshoho - Atamifuji could be other possible 11-3 vs 11-3 pairings (needs Atamifuji to win on Day 14, of course). Either way, it would take deliberate intent to make a yusho score of 11-4 possible, and there's zero history of the shimpan committee leaning in that direction. 

[Yamanashi 4,078]

15 hours ago, Reonito said:

Kinboshi is a gold star for the maegashira, not a black mark for the yokozuna.

Yeah, but, you see, the beauty of a kinboshi is that it's rare.  There are retired sekitori who can proudly point to their single kinboshi as a mark of their quality.  When the "Kinboshi Club" gets to resemble an Employee of the Month roster, it loses some of its luster.

Of lesser importance [because I don't have to foot the bill] is the fact that the NSK owes money for every basho afterwards while these guys are in Makuuchi.  Tamawashi can't keep going forever, but two guys with 25 basho in the top ranks and one with only six basho will be socking away their prize money for quite a few basho.

Edited July 25 by Jakusotsu
Sorry, double-posted . . . [but you should be able to delete it yourself - I took the liberty to delete your first.]

[Benihana 1,972]

Spectacular day of sumo. Murray Johnson was audibly baffled  And i second his quote: "Sumo, you gotta love it. You never know what's gonna happen on any given day. "

Edited July 25 by Benihana