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About Hankegami

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  • Birthday 03/09/1987

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  1. Hankegami

    What's so special about Hokuseiho?

    Considering that a good part of the argument made in favor of Hokuseiho in the video gravitates around his exceptional height, I ran a query and checked how well the tallest-ever rikishi fared in Ozumo. I put a lower limit of 195 cm of height, otherwise we could have entered a "very-tall-but-not-that-tall" area including 192 cm Hakuho and Terunofuji. Rikishi are down here put in order of successful career (from Yokozuna to Jonokuchi) with extra data like their yushos. As you all can see, Hokuseiho is placed on spot 25 of this particular query, about half the ladder (but notice that heights of 18th-19th century rikishi cannot be trusted, see asterisks). However, it becomes immediately clear that very few rikishi can equate his palmarès, most closely #7 Baruto and #8 Kotooshu, that is two darn Ozeki. Second closest comes #3 Futahaguro, a - well - somewhat a Yokozuna. Anyway, no small fry apparently managed to collect lower division titles without breaking big. Moreover, although some very tall guys had their careers clearly cut short by (knee?) injuries, it is remarkable that no rikishi taller than Hokuseisho himself failed to enter Maakuchi. The tallest confirmed rikishi, Fudoiwa, even made it to Sekiwake while being 213 cm. In conclusion, extreme height is definitively an advantage in Sumo, and Hokuseiho can dream big for three simple reasons 1) he's tally tally tall 2) he has a taste for winning 3) he already passed over the lower divisions, proving himself. It's just up to him to decide whther to land soft and be content to get a ticket for Maakuchi, or fulfill his potential and get at least to Ozeki. On the downside, the only Yokozuna taller than Hokuseiho is Akebono, that is a 204 cm, 200 kg behemoth. Futahaguro (but we can count him as a Yokozuna?) was slightly shorter than him, and Ozutsu (again not a particularly strong Yokozuna) was 3 cm shorter. All the other Yokozuna were much shorter, the next tallest being the 192 cm gang (Musashimaru, Hakuho, Terunofuji). This datum could suggest that being too tall is actually bad to get the very top job Hokuseiho is aiming at.
  2. Hankegami

    2022 60 wins again?

    I voted Wakatakakage simply because the only guy who can catch up with him (barring kyujo and similar disasters) is Kotonowaka, who is 3 wins away. WTK is a 9-6 guy on average, so we can reasonably expect him to go at least 58. KNW is more of a question mark because he joined the joy very recently and we cannot be sure whether his recent slump from previous 11-4s to his last 8-7 is temporary or structural. Either way, I don't project KNW to pass over a 11-4 for the moment (57). Also, WTK is technically on a run for Ozeki (although most of us expect him to make a Sep-Nov-Jan race instead of a July-Sep-Nov one) with an outside chance to be promoted with a 14-1 (63). We can therefore envisage him to gambarize and try to win as many bouts as possible, allowing him to sketch either a 10-5 (59) or 11-4 (60). Now, the problem is the 60 threshold. Once again, only a 11-4 WTK or a 14-1 KNW can get it. I doubt the latter will get such a big jump in just one basho, so my only viable candidate is WTK with his cold starts and all. Considering we are asking our favorite WakaBro to get his second-best performance ever once again, I am prone to be conservative and conclude that Wakatakakage will fall just short of the line, maybe exactly with a 10-5 (59).
  3. I am not an expert of Georgian society, but considering Georgia was part of the Soviet Union and was therefore exposed to Russian culture I cannot avoid to think he's building a dacha, that is a large agricultural estate. Was it a dacha, paying 1 million dollars for land, manor and all is a good investment. A large dacha allows his owner to live off as a wealthy farmer. Moreover, a dacha is traditionally not a landowner's first house but more his land investment and holiday house, so - were I right about this 'house' of his - Tochinoshin could leave farm-work to other people while engaging in other business.
  4. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

    Thanks, this is enlightening. Anyway, even that time he had a 1.5 loss of rank, while this time it is more likely they cannot put him lower than M16e, with a 1.0 rank loss. Giving him M16w would almost surely mean they are going to demote Hiradoumi despite his upper mathematical placement - but he has a lower rank, always an important factor. Almost coincidentally, I looked for Terutsuyoshi's 2019 adventures and I found out that our favorite salt thrower had the devil's luck - twice. He was 6-9 at M14e in Haru 2019, and was saved at M15e (exactly -1.0!), he doubled down 6-9 in Natsu and was kindly put at M16w as you reported. It turned out he wasn't the only lucky guy: in the same Haru 2019, Chiyoshoma did 7-8 at dead last M17e (basically Hidenoumi's position) and he was saved as well. This suggests we need some more context. Here we have my "raw placements" for Haru & Natsu 2019. Promotion candidates candidates in green, demotion candidates in red. Perspective positions by the numbers in italics, followed by the placements they actually got. Guys actually promoted and demoted are in bold. Haru 2019 Natsu 2019 From these examples it appears that a demotion/promotion process is a two-steps process. First - of course - there must be Maakuchi candidates with a demoting record. Second, there must be promotion candidates from Juryo with a perspective promotion record (even for a Juryo spot) higher than the rikishi they are expected to swap with. To clarify my point, down here I illustrate how swaps were apparently engineered in Haru and Natsu 2019. Left, the demotion candidates from Maakuchi. Right, their swapping counterparts from Juryo. The higher perspective placements are put in bold. Haru 2019 Natsu 2019 Let's use this same scheme for the post-Aki 2022 promotion/demotion pairings: Aki 2022 While Terutsuyoshi remains a difficult case (both him and Tohakuryu should land at J2, yet with a MK Terutsuyoshi should be ranked lower), Hiradoumi here appears to retain his Maakuchi status because the last available Juryo rikishi to be ranked above him, Kagayaki, has already taken Mitoryu's spot. Even Atamifuji is prospected to be ranked behind him (but the will surely outrank him because Hiradoumi cannot move from dead end M16w), but this particular lucky guy is going to get Tsurugisho's spot instead. In other words, it's all up to Isegahama-oyakata & friends. Technically speaking, Terutsuyoshi should go down as he is both slightly lower ranked than Tohakuryu and expected to land before Hiradoumi whether was he saved, that is a rikishi prospected to be higher than him. But under-demotion policies can always come in and decide that three demotions are enough and Terutsuyoshi is to stay, at this point necessarily at M16e.
  5. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

    Joining the debate concerning the Maakuchi/Juryo lift, if we are really going to have 3 Sekiwake and 4 Komusubi the last spot will be M16w again. Taking that as the divide, raw rankings should be (promotion candidates in green, demotable rikishi in red) Azumaryu (M15/KK+1), Kagayaki (J1/KK+1), Hiradoumi (J1/MK), Atamifuji (J2/KK), Tohakuryu (J2/KK), Terutsuyoshi (J2/MK-1), Bushozan (J3/KK), Tsurugisho (J4/MK-2), Mitoryu (J5/MK-2), Yukatayama (J5/MK-3). Was this the case, it becomes clear that Hiradoumi cannot be jumped over by the present J3 duo, especially considering that his 7-8 historically gives him a chance to be not demoted. Of course, his MK means he is going to be jumped over anyway but within the Maakuchi ranking, while for demotion he ought to get precedence. Terutsuyoshi is in a far more precarious situation. As a M15 with a 6-9 score, he would be naturally placed at M18. Even giving him a hand, he would need a M17 spot to land on. However, the lowest spot available is likely M16e (M16w already occupied by Hiradoumi), just one full rank below his present one. This would be a very generous arrangement, especially on the light that the J3 duo's KK should give them precedence over a MK-1 aiming at their same rank. In theory. Now, the Committee has always showed a general reluctance to over-promoting, preferring to under-demote instead. Even yet, Terutsuyoshi's case would require an unusual degree of leniency (from -3 spots to -1). I cannot find a way to query how many cases of 6-9 resulted in a -1 rank demotion, so I can only use math. For me, Terutsuyoshi is going down in absence of an acceptable M17 spot where to land him without causing a precedent.
  6. Hankegami

    Aki 2022 discussion (results)

    I don't want to be the dream-shattering guy, but even if Takayasu had managed to get 12-3J & 13-2Y (for instance) he could have been not promoted still. Some time ago I checked the actual number of victories needed to trigger a Yokozuna promotion, and I found out that the "golden number" is 26/30, with 25/30 being usually accepted only for Y-Y (and not for J-Y). I'm not even sure that a 12-3Y & 12-3Y (24/30) would be enough for the YDC. This is especially true in post-1987 cases, including the 'new relaxed rules' that promoted Kakuryu and Kisenosato with a J-Y combination. Although many in this forum call that 'Kisenosato rule' or 'Kakuryu rule', this was actually the 'Kaiou rule' and was first on the table after the latter's 13-2Y & 12-3J in Aki-Kyushu 2004. Kaiou was told beforehand he needed a 13-2 to be promoted (total 26/30), and the YDC ultimately rejected his case exactly because he missed one win. To put things in perspective, Kakuryu was promoted with a 14-1DJ & 14-1Y (28/30), Kisenosato with a 12-3J & 14-1Y (26/30), and Terunofuji with a 12-3PY & 14-1J (26/30). Also, both Kisenosato and Terunofuji had a extremely strong record to further back their claims. Things can even be worse. Hakuho was for instance denied promotion in 2006 despite his 14-1PY & 13-2J (27/30) as a shin-Ozeki on the grounds that Asashoryu sat out in the tournament he won. In other words, Takayasu missed the rope by a bit more than one bout back in 2018, and even in this "low standards" year a 12-3J & 13-2Y would unlikely trigger a promotion (especially in Haru and Aki as Terunofuji had to pull out early on). Hatsu 2018 was won by Tochinoshin with a 14-1Y. Takayasu faced him, and lost, on Day 3. Had he won, they would have finished both 13-2 and faced each other again in a playoff, so Tayayasu would have needed to win two bouts to get even a 13-2Y in Hatsu. Haru 2018 was won by Kakuryu with a 13-2Y. Takayasu actually won their match on Day 15, so he did his part there. He should have then won another bout elsewhere to trigger a playoff. Two more bouts to win, again. To change his fortunes Takayasu should have won at least three bouts - not less - he actually lost or never had to make up a 13-2Y & 13-2J (26/30) either way.
  7. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

    Well, we are talking about the NSK. Logic is not their forte Jokes aside, it was just a school hypothesis. I agree it doesn't make sense, although Kotonowaka had to retire before he was technically KK. But my "smoking gun" proving it's an improbable interpretation is Ichinojo's case instead.
  8. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

    This prospected banzuke strictly reflects the scoring order "raw": M1e Daieisho (*K/MK); M1w Takayasu (-3/KK+3); M2e Wakamotoharu (M1/KK+2); M2w Kotonowaka (M1/KK); M3e Meisei (M1/KK); M3w Sadanoumi (M2/KK+2); M4e Ura (M2/KK); M4w Midorifuji (M2/MK); M5e Ichinojo (M2/MK-1); M5w Hokutofuji (M3/KK+2). However, as @Gurowake just pointed out, a KK is understood to preserve a wrestler's rank. Part of this oddity could be explaining by hypothesizing that the Committee will regard incomplete scores from last basho as "requiring confirmation" (Ozekiwake style). Daieisho MK? Treat him as a 7-8 Komusubi he should have been. Kotonowaka barely KK? Well, that's actually a 7-8, son. That's not possible, though, because this banzuke is punishing hard even previous Yusho winner Ichinojo, who had a hell of KK last basho. So that's all in the air. The only good thing of this banzuke is that gives better positions to good scorers otherwise under-promoted (Wakamotoharu, Sadanoumi, Hokutofuji). I am not familiar with Japanese sport journalism. Is Asahi usually considered a trustworthy insider source for sumo?
  9. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

    I ran a couple searches. There are only 10 instances in which an upper Maegashira winning a Yusho was given a Sekiwake slot (here). A couple things immediately catch the eye. First, they are all strong yusho (14-1 or 13-2). Second, only in three cases a second Sekiwake slot was opened to accommodate the winner. In the other seven cases they gave him the ordinary S1w slot evidently available. Third, most cases are rather old, although the last was Tochinoshin in 2018. In this case it is however evident that my "no Sekiwake for hot-and-cold guys" did not apply, as Tochi was alternating 10+ victories to MK at the time. A wider search concerning just Maegashira directly promoted to Sekiwake regardless of a Yusho (here) resulted in a much longer list however characterized by a common constant: they were promoted to fill a S1w Sekiwake slot. The first cases concerning the opening of a HD date back to the early 1990s, same as a couple cases from the earlier search. A last search concerned how upper Maegashira who won a Yusho were usually promoted. The list for itself only yielded 34 results (here). Some cross-checking shows a more "friendly" promotion policy around 1990-2000 (paradoxically the apex of the 'Futahaguro scare' for Yokozuna promotions) with Yusho winners being even a bit over-promoted by the numbers. The modern approach however appears to be that an upper Maegashira Yusho gives precedence for an ordinary Sekiwake slot (S1e/w) whenever available or to a Komusubi slot (even HD) whenever all the S1e/w positions are already filled. In other words, Tamawashi (and Tobizaru) will be most likely accommodated to a K2 position. But no, they apparently do not really consider previous performances, my bad.
  10. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

    You certainly mean 9-6. Anyway, leaving a 9-6 Komusubi at his place indeed appears to have been the norm during the last years (see the last results in this query). I agree that Kiribayama will likely be just "promoted" to K1e. Also, I am more prone to believe that Tamawashi will be made Komusubi alongside Tobizaru, rather than Sekiwake. It's not just about Daieisho's precedent. Tamawashi (understandably given his age) goes hot and cold, and his record plenty shows KK alternated to MK. Were he be put to Sekiwake and have a bad basho, he could occupy a precious Komusubi slot next January. However, doing a MK at Komusubi is far less troublesome to deal with for the Committee.
  11. Hankegami

    Aki 2022 discussion (results)

    My wonderful memory. Of course you are right: Sorry, I was totally absorbed by the award ceremony and improvised my reply.
  12. Hankegami

    Aki 2022 discussion (results)

    I would never ignore the past. However, I prefer to put it into perspective. I read someone writing that Tamawashi is the oldest yusho winner since the Showa era. That's a good cut-out.
  13. Hankegami

    Aki 2022 discussion (results)

    Of course, I wasn't absolutely getting at you. I was just skeptical about taking these old records as good as new. Anyway, I won't be that sure that in the good 'ole times people aged 'faster' either. Or better, their injury risk was better guarded with a two basho strategy. Few examples: Tanikaze and Raiden fought into their forties (and so did many 18th-19th century rikishi). Tachiyama retired at 39 in 1917, Haguroyama the same in 1953, and Yoshibayama at 38 in 1959. I am positive no six-basho era Yokozuna ever retired this late in his career.
  14. Hankegami

    Aki 2022 discussion (results)

    Very right on paper, but Tachiyama won that yusho back in 1916, in a time when there were two basho per year. Extremely different times. Just saying, with two basho per year Ichinojo would likely be Yokozuna (no chronic back pain), Mitakeumi still Ozeki (shoulder fully healed), perhaps Takakeisho Yokozuna (more time to heal his injuries), Terunofuji would still be in Makushita and Asanoyama under suspension. Not to mention what Tamawashi himself would be able to do with a tournament every six months. I believe it's better to take only results from the six-basho era. We can get a more balanced frame this way.
  15. Hankegami

    Aki 2022 discussion (results)

    I'd say that him having the first 13-2 yusho since Hatsu, also the ex-aequo strongest results of this year, speaks volumes about his feat.