Hankegami

I think that's the end of the road for 'Keisho. His injuries aren't going anywhere. Sure, maybe I'm wrong and he'll rack up 10+ in Aki, but the odds aren't with him IMHO. Anyway, the basho is closing up and the Yokozuna has to defend his Yusho chances against, uh, Takanosho and Churanoumi. Didn't see that coming. Also, he'll be mathematically the tournament winner if he wins against Takanosho tomorrow. Their H2H is unexpectedly 7-6 (here), although Teru mopped the dohyo with a clean 6-0 throughout 2021-22, that is when he was at his post-surgery health peak. So that's all down on how much set on Teru is. A Teru win would also allow to pair him against Kotozakura on senshuraku (that is, the classic way) without passing through Churanoumi.

I wholeheartedly concur, although it is debatable whether Onosato get to Ozeki already after next basho. This would include his 11-4JGK in Haru, where he fought at M5w and faced 8 joi-jin out of 15 matches (here his matches, with the line cut at M4w after Terunofuji's range of opponents on paper). I ran a query about that, and results are not fully encouraging. Precedents for Maegashira-to-Ozeki runs (here) must be put on context. The lowest placement is even M9e (Minanogawa, 1933.01), but since then the lowest placement went never below M4w, one full rank above Onosato's M5w in Haru. Furthermore, this threshold goes up to M3w (Tochinoshin, 2018.01) if we consider only cases from after 1987 (the Futahaguro-Onokuni time of troubles). But what about unsuccessful runs? A similar query about 33+ runs that did not trigger an Ozeki promotion are even more telling about Onosato's case (here we go). Aside from Tochinoshin's weak 9-6 at M6w (boosted by his follow-up 14-1Y), the first real means for comparison is Kotooshu's 2005 sketch from M5e to S1e. He went 10-5 (M5e), 12-3J (S1e), 13-2D (S1e). He delivered a staggering 35/45, including a doten lost to none less than Asashoryu (here), and yet he had to wait another tournament before being promoted to Ozeki. Let's see his opponents at M5e (here). Kotooshu also faced 8 joi-jin out of 15 days, which could be a pattern. Before him, Wakanohana III was denied an Ozeki spot with a run from M3e in 1993, but it also happened at the height of The 1990s Scare. Further back, Taiho's 1960 run from M6e is equally meaningful and rather close to Onosato. He posted an 11-4 (M6e), 11-4 (S1w), 12-3J (S1w), that is 34/45 in a time when 30 was enough to get Ozeki. Taiho faced 9 joi-jin (here), yet he got no cigar. The other case-studies also look similar. Long story short, there is a consistent history of denying a short-track promotion to guys who started a 33+ streak from outside the joi, largely because they got a 50% discount on the implicitly demanded "joi treatment". I believe that with those precedents this basho is going to count as the first for a potential Ozeki run from Onosato, to be followed by 10+ performances in Nagoya and Aki. Hence, likely no promotion ceremony before late September. Enough time to grow an oicho?

Just checked out of curiosity, and found out that Terukuni went on an uninterrupted, 10 basho strike of 11+ wins since his promotion - but no yusho because Futabayama (later got two in 1950-51). This is also the shortest possible time I think a rikishi can get from being promoted to Makuuchi to reaching Yokozuna. Terukuni went as follows, from Natsu 1939 to Hatsu 1944 (from sumodb): 11-4 (M15w); 12-3J (M2e); 11-4 (S2eHD); 12-3 (S1w); 13-2J (S1w); 12-3 (O1e); 13-2J (O2wHD); 14-1J (Y2eHD); 12-3 (Y1w); 11-4 (Y1e) His strike came to an end with a modest 6-4 in Natsu 1944. Wikipedia rumors implicitly link his poor late wartime performance to food rationing, an issue for a 162 kg behemoth. Also, Terukuni's Makuuchi strike was preceded by an 11-4 Juryo Yusho that led to his promotion to Makuuchi. Long story short, perhaps we only have to wait for Onosato's fourth Makuuchi tournament to get whether he's closer to the mold of Onosho or Terukuni (Onosho delivered a modest 8-7 in his fourth basho at K1w).

I'm not really knowledgeable on how sumo stables are run, but I read and heard around that Miyagino-beya might suffer from a severe case of 'too many roosters in the coop'. Hakuho definitively picks up many promising talents, who on turn might be reluctant to submit to local hierarchies. Hokuseiho in particular, as heyagashira, might have used bullying to be sure that no one challenged his right to be obeyed by lower-ranked students. Of course this does not justify him, nor it reflects well on Hakuho anyway. By this same metric, Nihonoseki has a solid core of fellow Nippon Sport Science University mates Onosato, Shirokuma, and Kayo. This means that Onosato, now that he's going to be the heyagashira at Nihonoseki-beya, has at least two acquaintances likely to support him as the undisputed internal leader. Not to mention Onosato's own fame as an amateur sumotori. Now, I realize that I'm talking about rumors, but I can't help but noticing that it makes somewhat sense. Hokuseiho's actions as reported by tabloids appear to be gratuitous cruelty in themselves. Much beyond initial reports on Hokuseiho's purported kleptomania. Framing them within a context of internal competition at least makes some sense to me.

I don't get how Tohakuryu's promotion is even a thing. The Juryo-Makuuchi promotion lineup is Nishikifuji (J-3e), Kitanowaka (J-2w), Takerufuji (J-1e), Daiamami (J0e), and Roga (J0e). Daiamami is also a special case since he gave a KK from J1e (see below). Tohakuryu gave a (J1w) case and in normal circumstances he would take over Mitoryu's spot. He's also sixth in the promotion queue, and his exchange would be (M18w) Endo. Now, I think we all agree that at present the Committee prefers to keep people up than kick them down. They also have already five perfectly justifiable exchanges. I find difficult to believe they are going to force a sixth by over-promoting Tohakuryu by 1.5 ranks instead to under-demoting and keeping Endo by the same 1.5 ranks (M17e). I think we are on the same page here, but I write my opinion for completeness. In that case, Ichinojo had a projected M-7w spot, while Kiribayama had a M0e, so Ichinojo had absolute precedence to fill the only vacant Komusubi slot. Now, a 8-7 is usually considered a get-go for "you're not going to be demoted". There are plenty of cases in which an 8-7 stays still at his old rank because of banzuke lack-of-luck. However, Kiribayama being moved up there shows that a 8-7 M1e must be moved up to Komusubi. I think that the mere fact that he was placed at K2w while Ichinojo was awarded K1w shows that Kiribayama was the one who forced an extra spot. EDIT: I just realized that it could have been also the other way around, sorry. Kirishima had absolute precedence for a slot, but they couldn't deny one to Ichinojo with his result. Anyway, I understand that the golden rule appears to be that a KK at the uppermost rank of each division or sub-division (san'yaku, Makuuchi, Juryo, etc) forces the promotion to the aforementioned KK recipient - see for Instance 8-7 J1e Aoiyama last basho. Intra-san'yaku rules are, of course, different.

Nope, Kiribayama got a K2w slot with his 8-7 from M1e. The numerary K1w slot went to Yusho winner Ichinojo (M2w). See the following Aki 2022 banzuke.

Congratulations to Terunofuji, the Tyrannosaurus Rex atop of the sumo food chain. I was totally taken aback by the show of strength and obstinacy that he gave this basho, and in the few days in particular. So, Yusho number 9. If I ever understood anything about Terunofuji, I believe he will now gun for Yusho number 10. After that.... Nah, he's not going to retire unless a) his body gives up, or b) someone else step up to Yokozuna. Kirishima failed to do that just now, and the Ozeki trio (soon quartet) are soon back to square one. Terunofuji is going to gun for Yusho 11, 12, 13 and so on, as long as he manages to dominate like he did today. Terunofuji's protracted dominance is troublesome, however. He just showed that no one is anywhere close to his level despite his bum knees and his hurting lower back. He often loses to some rank-and-file on his way to the Yusho, but never gives an inch to the top dogs. Now, we're going to have four Ozeki in a few days. Kirishima is 0-11, Hoshoryu is 0-10, the upcoming Kotozakura is 0-7. The only one with a few wins under his mawashi is 'ole reliable Takakeisho, who is himself 4-6 but just 1-5 in their last six encounters (but that win in itself gives some credit to the Hamster). Kotonowaka resisted well in the playoff, but he was also constantly on the defense. From the looks of it, we could not see a new Yokozuna for a while yet.

Whelp, I didn't expect for a 12-2 arasoi co-leader to be paired against a KK seeking guy. However, as @Seiyashi just pointed out in the other thread, their F2F is much closer than one would expect (7-6). Things could get further spiced up if Tobizaru enters the pitch with a shot for san'yaku and some will to fight hard to get it. All he needs is for M5w Nishikigi and M7w Asanoyama to lose their bouts, and hope for Kotonowaka to be promoted to Ozeki with 32 wins. Now, Nishikigi is against Wakamotoharu (3-7), while Asanoyama faces Daieisho (7-13). Chances are good. This way, the lineup for san'yaku would look like Wakamotoharu (M-4e), Abi (at least M1w), Tobizaru (M3e), Nishikigi (M4w) and Asanoyama (M4w). With Wakamotoharu going up to fill Kotonowaka's old spot, the two Komusubi slots would go to Abi and Tobizaru. Sure, if Kotonowaka is denied his promotion all would be for naught, but a Monkey should try.

Good Day 14, folks. As a figure of speech, of course, because I was rooting for Kirishima and Atamifuji for the win, and them both lost. Of course. So, it looks like the next Yokozuna is going to be Terunofuji again. Kirishima dropped to 11-3 with a guy against with he had a 10-3 record in favor. Sure, he can still get both Cup and the white rope - in theory. All he needs is to beat Teru to level their scores, and hope for Kotonowaka to lose his bout tomorrow so to trigger a 12-3 playoff. One can even argue that beating the Yokozuna and post a 12-3J is enough to trigger a discussion, but I wouldn't bet my house on that (Takakeisho was denied the rope with a 12-3J 13-2Y back in AKI-Kyushu 2020). With 3 losses on him, Kirishima needs the Cup to force his own promotion. But what are the chances? He has an unflattering 0-10 record against Terunofuji, and the latter showed that previous records against him do matter just the day before against his other (of many) 0-6 punching ball Kotonowaka. Let's be honest: I believe that's the end of the road for Kirby. Although he might be more successful in another occasion in this very year. With Kirby out, the Cup is 99% down to Terunofuji and Kotonowaka. Which is no grand news for the latter (see their F2F record). But he can still get 13-2 and lock his promotion to Ozeki. With Hoshoryu out, Kotonowaka is out of contenders for Day 15. I believe that his only decent pairing would be against 9-2-3 M7w Asanoyama*. He has a uninspiring record against the former Ozeki (0-2) but Asanoyama is also nursing an injury. In other words, the chances of a Terunofuji vs. Kotonowaka playoff are high IMHO. Which means a likely Terunofuji 9th Yusho (7-0, ladies and gentlemen) and also that Teru will go intai in yet another basho. If he get 9, he will absolutely want to get 10. * He's going to get Tobizaru instead. Well, I tried.

Totally missed that, thanks.

I think that they paired him up against Atamifuji tomorrow in part for this reason. He has a chance to give a MK to Atomic, put him out of contention of san'yaku, and put himself up to 9 wins with a chance to hit 10 in one sweep. Opposite test for Atamifuji. He already failed to beat Asanoyama on Day 15 in Aki, but if he manages to turn tables and go 7-7 he will likely have a relative softball for a KK on Day 15 since he already fought everyone in the joy.

You rang? Anyway, Terunofuji looked dominant against Kotonowaka. I was low-key expecting a rematch of their last F2F in May 2023, when KNW gave a huge run for his money to Teru. This time he was immediately yorikiri'd out instead. Of course, it's 99% because Teru got a much better grip, but still KNW is no lightweight. Now, the round robin will go on to Day 14. Like many others here, I also foresee a Kirby vs. Koto & Teru vs. Hosh. Sumo Database is not available as I write (too many people getting in?), but I'm positive that Koto and Hosh are the dark horses for this pairing. Kotonowaka has not won against Kirishima in a while - he even lost in Nagoya, when Kirby was nursing an injury -, while Terunofuji used to make quick work of Hoshoryu. Given what we've seen today, the likeliest upset can be made by Kotonowaka, who would put his Ozeki promotion in danger if he drops a third one (Kirishima is in a much similar situation, though, just one rung higher). Teru, instead, showed today that he's still the boss of the ring and looks like a safer bet for respecting his previous records. But never say never. Anyway, a win from Terunofuji and Kirishima would give us a nice not-actually-a-playoff situation on Day 15. One rung below, the fight for a san'yaku spot is still very open. Wakamotoharu is the only guaranteed comeback. Atamifuji kept his hopes for occupying the second spot alive, courtesy of Kinbozan (nice henka, Kinbo). Abi, Tobizaru, and Nishikigi are all 7-6 and will certainly do the impossible to win out and put up a claim for that spot. Down at M7w, a returning Asanoyama is also lurking out for an upset claim from the rear. Things could be spiced up with a Kotonowaka promotion to Ozeki (still possible with a 12-3), in which case WMH will get his old Sekiwake spot back, and the race for Komusubi will have two spots to give instead of one. I found that decision, well, not much agreeable. Shortly before they deemed Shodai vs. Tsurugisho a torinaoshi (and Shodai lost the rematch) because - I believe - Shodai was flying while executing his technique. No matter that Tsurugisho landed first by ages. Now Ura flies while, uh, flying (a nice barrel round, 10/10) but he wins because Tobizaru stepped out first. Even the crowd was chanting for a torinaoshi. Color me surprised.

The real life Street Fighter II match between Abi1 and Abi2 ended up with a convincing win from Abi1 in his original black mawashi. Abi1 and Abi2 clashed as foreseeable, arms vs. arms. However, since real life is not 100% video gaming, the actual Abi showed greater strength and pushed back Ichiyamamoto arguably with good ease. Once-in-a-life experience nevertheless.

I believe they are trying to avoid another Tokushoryu Yusho style upset. Incidentally, a video interview to Tokushoryu by Nihonoseki-oyakata (good 'ole Kisenosato) was uploaded just yesterday on YouTube (here) and of course it focused on his "Cinderella Yusho" but also on his easy schedule (14-1, only joy to face co-leader Shodai and big boy Takakeisho). It didn't help that Tokushoryu was heavily mauled by the joy in the next tournament at M2w (4-11, although he got a kinboshi in the process, courtesy from Kakuryu). By contrast, more recent Yusho upset candidates have been put against the joy as early as they got 8 wins and secured their KK.

Good Day 10, y'all. Some short comments. Terunofuji got 8 wins after sacking Kinbozan (literally) and he's now KK. This means that he's not going to pull an Onokuni anymore (7-8 in Aki 1989). I also believe that Teru is going to stick around until the end at this point - barring injuries. Who knows, he could even remain in the Yusho run despite everything. He's Teru, after all. Kirishima got a hard run for his money against a pushy Onosho. He managed to resist and pull a hatakikomi nevertheless. Not dominant sumo, but he didn't get lucky either. He showed great, great resistance. Kotonowaka schooled Onosato, showing that the latter cannot quite handle the san'yaku yet. The popular Four Tits keeps cruising strong, and I doubt that Oho is going to give him any trouble tomorrow. I also hope that the Committee is going to leave Oho be with Day 12, the poor lad is 6-4 and projected to go 6-5 tomorrow. So, Kotonowaka is sole leader after today, and I doubt that he's going to lose his position before the very last days. I also think that he's going to have a hard go the last three days (13-14-15). Considering how things are shaping out, I believe we are going to get a regular finishing this time around. This means that his final three opponents are going to be Terunofuji (0-6 record), Kirishima (3-10 but also 1-8 in their last nine F2F), and Hoshoryu (6-10 but for once 3-0 in the last F2F), not necessarily in this order. By expecting Kotonowaka to arrive on Day 13 undefeated (11-1), he could even follow his previous records and pull off an Ozeki promotion with a 12-3 (32/3). However, we know that Four Tits is looking for a Yusho (Sumo Prime Time interview) so he's likely going to fight for that. Among the runner-ups, the most unnerved is surely Kirishima with his Yusho & Yokozuna run. Tomorrow he starts facing the upper san'yaku with Daieisho (10-6 but also 5-1 in recent F2F) and, by the look of his match vs. Onosho from today, he's going to resist Daieisho's pushes once again. Day 12 is perhaps going to be Onosato and, by the look of the latter's bout vs. Kotonowaka, Kirby's chances to reach Day 13 with a 10-2 score are good. Now, Kirby holds a 10-3 record against Kotonowaka (see above), while his record against Hoshoryu is on balance (7-8 but 2-2 in their last four). Of course, his main problem is Teru (0-10). Ideally, Kirishima should go on a sweep unless the Yusho bar goes as low as 12-3, in which case he can afford one loss (but he still MUST win the tournament). IMHO he was somehow trying to break Hoshoryu's belt grip. Or he just panicked. For what I saw, Daieisho at first tried to counter Hoshoryu's grip with a grip of his own, but he failed to get one (he grasped Hosh's meaty side instead). Nephew then shoved him aside, and at this point Daieisho did his jump.