Hankegami

I wouldn't be bothered that much. Every Yokozuna develops it's own dohyo-iri at the end of the day. Harumafuji and Terunofuji were both taught theirs by ex-Asahifuji, but they couldn't be more difficult by each other. Asahifuji had an old-style Shiranui, hands open and low arms. Harumafuji went low and parallel to the plane of the dohyo. Terunofuji keeps his arms so straight that he reminds me of a helicopter taking off. Were Hokuseiho good enough to get the rope, he will do his dohyo-iri as he likes most. Anyway, I am not persuaded that he will get that high. More than Ichinojo, who peaked at Sekiwake mostly because of his excessive mass, I think that Hokuseiho will peak at Ozeki like fellow tad poles Takanonami and Kotooshu. Akebono became Yokozuna mostly because he was a hundred times more aggressive than the others tall guys. Hokuseiho included.

I am not very knowledgeable about kabu politics, but it has been a while since Sanoyama is defined as property of the NSK in the japanese wikipedia (kabu list). I understood that, de jure, since 2011 kabu should be reverted to the NSK as part of a new (never really enforced) policy. It is even possible that they managed to get hold of Sanoyama?

I admit that I seriously considered for Kagayaki to survive in the last few days, but the simple fact that Ochiai was given a shikona implies that he's going to be promoted. And, considered that he has the third strongest promotion claim, this makes up for at least three promotions: Gonoyama, Shonannoumi, and Ochiai. Now, I am also persuaded that Bushozan will not be denied his promotion with a 10-5 from J3e, which requires a fourth spot to open up - Kagayaki's. I yield, he's toast. At this point, I concur that Atamifuji is going to get the short end of the stick. Aoiyama saved himself by posting a claim to a M17e spot, and with Wakatakakage falling out of san'yaku we will also get a M17w spot where to accommodate Endo - assuming that he will get a full drop, it seems to me that rikishi going kyujo do not often get a mathematically full free fall, but get a somehow of 50% discount. Wakatakakage will be almost certainly not put at M14w or M15w like a guy posting 15 losses on a mathematical basis. But I don't know whether it also applies for those withdrawing mid-basho. Anyway, no fifth spot for Atamifuji.

I would add that a typical spot for a Ms10 who goes 6-1 is around Ms1-3 (here). A rapid attempt of mine to draw the next Makushita banzuke finds him at Ms3w (but I'm not that good with Makushita, so I could be totally wrong). Considering that Chiyonoumi possibly clinched a promotion from that very spot with a 4-3, chances that Onosato will reach Juryo for Aki are very good (assuming that he will provide another good performance).

As we wrote extensively last time, you are mathematically very right. Well, mathematically also Endo would be gone, but no one is betting on that. However, this Committee has showed us just last time around that math is important only up to a certain point. Shimanoumi left in Juryo is literally one of their grand miracles. Anyway, I did an error in my previous post. Bushozan is last in the promotion queue at J-2. Atamifuji is fourth at J-3. This means they would be going to leave Bushozan back alone by kicking Kagayaki down but not Endo. Do you think that this situation is anywhere likely to happen? To be honest, I wouldn't mind that - I like Atamifuji and Ochiai, I really do. But I cannot forget they are at J8. Anyway, we will see what will happen in due time. I can only say I have a Han Solo-ish "I have a bad feeling about this".

He has a very good promotion case - by the numbers. However, Aoiyama has just won his bout, complicating the demotion queue. Now it looks like Aoiyama (M17e - safe), Endo (M17w - in danger), Kagayaki (M18e - in danger), Mitoryu (M21e - demoted), Ichiyamamoto (M22e - demoted), Ichinojo (retired). The promotion queue from Juryo is as follows - by the numbers. Gonoyama (J-12e), Shonannoumi (J-6w), Ochiai (J-5w), Bushozan (J-3e), Atamifuji (J-2e). However, Atamifuji and Ochiai are at J8, while the others three sit at the top of the juryo banzuke. As @Bunbukuchagama just pointed out, things are complicated. Bushozan with a 10-5 from J3e should get senior preference, I cannot see him being denied his promotion. The guys in danger are IMHO the lower ranked - Atamifuji and Ochiai. That's because there are only three "safe" spots (Ichinojo, Ichiyamamoto, Mitoryu). Kagayaki could also go down in favor of Ocihai, but it would be awkward to leave Atamifuji back since he sits next to him and is just one win away. So, there are two options IMHO 1) They demote also Endo (M17w) and promote Atamifuji; 2) They look more at the banzuke and promote the three upper Juryo and give the J8 duo a second shot in July at J1. Considering that the NSK is more oriented toward under-demontions but also to avoid massive division exchanges, I have a feel that they will choose the latter. Kagayaki will be spared and also Endo, who is falling from M2w and not from the lower Makuuchi. Ochiai will be put at J1e and Atamifuji at J1w.

About the first part, I was clearly joking. The main reason to keep Kagayaki in - for my scenario - is that Bushozan did not give a convincing enough case for his promotion and, as the fifth in line for demotion, Kagayaki would have been kept in Makuuchi. For the second part, as I stated above a 7-8 from dead last spot is, of course, a death sentence at 99.9%. I cannot put a query on DB because the last spot changes following the number of san'yaku in the banzuke. Anyway, as I said there are plenty of cases of rikishi left in their old spot despite a 7-8. I don't even need to run a query for this. M9w Hiradoumi was 7-8 in March. Guess where he was placed for May? (here). Same goes for Hokutofuji (here). Going back to January, 7-8 Kotoeko was left at M13w for March (here). And I am taking up only the most recent banzuke made by the sitting Committee, i.e. the same guys that are going to decide promotions and demotions for July. Please notice that I am not saying that the rule is to save the sorry backside of every poor sod at 7-8 who sits on the dead last spot. It's all about precedence for demotion or, as we usually call it, banzuke luck. P.S.: To say it all, I am personally not persuaded that Kagayaki will be able to save himself. He needs all the three events that I listed in my previous post to happen for him to survive at 7-8 M17e. My two cents is that Bushozan will win against 6-8 Takatento tomorrow (record 8-5 for Bushozan, although he lost the last two matches). Mini-Keisho knows what is at a stake, and is plenty aware he should better win and post a robust 10-5 (J-2). Also, Hokuseiko for a change could win his bout and jeet Kagayaki deep down with a 6-9 (M20e). I was just amused by the simple fact that there's an outside chance for a MK M17e to survive despite all, and that is Kagayaki of all people.

Just watch him doing his magic. All he needs are three ingredients: 1) He wins his bout (he already won against Hokuseiho, their record is exactly 1-0); 2) Aoiyama loses his bout and gets ahead of Kagayaki in the demotion queue (he's 2-16 against Hokutofuji); 3) Bushozan loses his bout. What would such a combination entail? Let's say that everyone of the endangered Makuuchi boys and the lose Juryo promotion candidates win, barring Aoiyama and Bushozan respectively. The demotion queue would be something like Ichinojo (intai), Mitoryu (M21e), Ichiyamamoto (M20e), Aoiyama (M19e), Kagayaki (M18e). The promotion queue would go like Gonoyama (J-12), Shonannoumi (J-5), Ochiai (J-5), Atamifuji (J-3), Bushozan (J-0). Next step. The NSK is famously conservative and does not like to over-demote. A 9-6 Bushozan is barely above the promotion threshold. On the other hand, why tossing out good 'ole Kagayaki, so sweet and kind with children and elderly alike? Let's keep him up. We already got one Takakeisho in Makuuchi, after all. The main reason behind such a situation is that a technical 7-8 make-koshi mostly bars a rikishi from being promoted. Demotion is an extra, and regularly enforced only when a make-koshi becomes substantial (6-9 or worse). Plenty of 7-8 guys have been left on their same spot all the time, just pick two banzuke and look at the movements. A 7-8 from the dead last spot in Makuuchi is usually a death sentence because there is always some nifty bastard down in Juryo ready to take the spot. But this time Kagayaki "Lucky Luke" Taishi has a real chance to fall fifth on a long demotion queue.

Sorry for contributing to necro-posting, but I never noticed this poll. Anyway, I always got that Teru wants to get his 10 yusho. Given what he did in this basho, I'm prone to think he's going to get them after all. He could even get one or two more before retiring, but all depends on his knees. I cannot read the article, but I've always understood that the 10 yusho threshold for a "Dai-Yokozuna" is - although still regarded as valid - a bit outdated as a measure of almighty strenght. I cannot bring up sources for my claim, but I think that the term is most likely to be traced back to the two basho per years era. As everyone knows, the very idea of yusho started out in 1909 when the very idea to reward the tournament winner was first introduced, so the golden standard for "10 yusho" were probably the great Yokozuna of the 1910s like Tachiyama (9 official yusho more 2 pre-1909 tournament wins), Tochigiyama (9 yusho), Okido back in Osaka (10 yusho), and later also Tsunenohana (10 yusho), Tamanishiki (9 yusho), and of course Futabayama (12 yusho). Actually, I have a hunch that the term was actually introduced for Futabayama with a bit of 'thinking back' to the 1910s-1920s in search for precedents. Anyway, the term certainly means 10 career yusho. In a two basho per year era, it meant that a Yokozuna won almost half of the tournaments in which he participated. In a six basho per year era, a strict parallel would be 30 yusho. But we all know that having six basho per years also means a higher susceptibility to injuries and greater chances to have murky performances. Considering also "recent" precedents (1960-present), a 20 yusho cut-out would make more sense. I reckon that some fan lamented that, if 10 yusho make a Dai-Yokozuna, we are at a loss of terms to define those who fare much better. That said, 10 yusho still remain a great feat. A first threshold for a Yokozuna is certainly 6 yusho, since Kaio virtually put 5 yusho within the realm of Ozeki performances (Kaio's career make me also long for the old times in the early 1800s where the rope was basically bestowed as a career award). Putting a second threshold at 10 yusho is just fair to me. Not that many Yokozuna ever managed to rack up ten Cups in a career, after all.

From a purely mathematical perspective, Nishikigi should be half rank higher. M4w Nishikigi 9-6 (4-9+6 = M1w), M3e Tobizaru 8-7 (2-8+7 = M2e). But my very mediocre record at the "guess the banzuke" game makes crystal clear that the Banzuke Committee does not always take mathematical conventions as guidelines. For what's worth, I am also prospecting Nishikigi as the most likely K1w for July. Abi is the front-runner, but he's clearly not in a good shape and Ura could get a win (barring henka... wait a second, perhaps I just guessed Abi's strategy for tomorrow ). Anyway, if the Strangler fails his ultimate winning strategy, Nishikigi becomes the first pick with a win. His record against Onosho is 3-3, but actually 3-1 for their last four F2F (here). Chances are good.

I'd say that's a typical situation in which both contenders are to be praised. On hindsight, they should have left Terunofuji vs. Kiribayama for the senshuraku. Soon-to-be Ozeki Kiribayama showed an outstanding fighting spirit for a guy with a 0-9 record against the Yokozuna. He seemed to be almost on the verge of playing some trick a couple times, but Teru is just too big and strong. A nice way to assess his new position as #2 of the Big Boys' Club. Now, we need some icing on the cake for tomorrow. 1) Teru must finish 14-1Y and raise up the mean score for the title after an abysmal 2022, and 2) Kiri won't leave the jun-yusho to that Asanoyama guy, innit? C'mon, top dogs!

Congratulations to Nishikigi for his unexpected KK after a seven-day winning streak from Day Day 8 to Day 14 (1-6 > 8-6, see here). To be continued on day 15? Still that spry at 32 years old and with 17 years of tachi-ai, thrusts, falls, and other sumo niceties on his shoulders!

Well, Day 13 is gone and I see that everyone jumped out from the Asanoyama bandwagon. Poor lad. Well, that's in part because everyone is looking for the next Japanese Yokozuna, home and abroad. To be honest, Asanoyama for himself is not that bad of a bet. He's a big man with a strong yotsu-zumo. However, Terunofuji today just showed that he's not good enough (yet?). I would be not surprised that Asanoyama manages to improve his shape now that he's going to join the san'yaku once again. I would actually like to see a Kiribayama vs. Asanoyama showoff (hope in senshuraku). Because - let's be honest - Kiribayama is the next big thing now. He showed plenty that he became capable to stay in Yusho contention, and some fan are actually rooting for a back-to-back Sekiwake Yusho (well-known requirement to become Sekizuna ). Seeing whether he's able to put Asanoyama on the dirt would be a good smell test for him. Also because everyone up there should better hurry, rumors are that a couple of young bloods are going to be in Makuuchi soon. Silly thinking: Hakuho first predicted Asanoyama to be the next Yokozuna, and yesterday he gave advice (via NSK box) to Kiribayama on how to make the next step to Yokozuna. If them both are going to fail hard, we will all know who jinxed them. Yes, I already figured that out long ago although I did not know the technicalities. My post was about more about the fact that I am not overly familiar with the original Japanese terminology.

Yep. Those exotic shimpan. Anyway, sorry for mixing up the committees, I went with the name more familiar to me. My Japanese is barely good enough to get the most cringe-worthy 'your Japanese is good' or perhaps even -God forbid - 'you just have to improve it a bit' whether I would ever attempt to speak anything. 'Torikumi' has yet to enter my standard sumo vocabulary, unfortunately. But I will gambarize, I promise.

It will depend on their pairings, also because they will be likely put against other poorly performing rikishi. Paradoxically, it is likely that the trio will survive another day tomorrow. Ichiyamamoto is 1-0 against Ryuden, only one precedent but it shows that he can win against him. Kagayaki vs. Onosho is 8-6 with a last string of three victories for our 5-7 boy. And Mitoryu dominates Takanosho 7-1. But I agree that it is unlikely to last for three days straight. I think we have our three victims with which trading Shonannoumi, Ochiai, and likely also Bushozan (plus Gonoyama taking Ichinojo's void spot). A problem may arise if also Atamifuji keeps up with his current pace, because Kotoshoho is going to give a demoting results strictly by the numbers (1-9-5 = 1-14 at M5w = M18w). Actually, more than imagining the deep down trio engaging in three days' worth of yaocho, I would not be surprised if someone puts something strange in Aoiyama's chanko just to be sure to get yet another young blood for the modest price of yet another beaten up veteran (I'm joking, though. Without Aoiyama, I could not whistle Take Me Home, Country Roads as he mounts the dohyo only to mutter 'mountain momma' at the right moment).