Hankegami

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About Hankegami

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  1. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    Thanks. About Ryuden, he's 9-6 at J3. The other two are 11-4 but at J6. They have two more wins but a gap of three full ranks. Like I said, I may have misinterpreted the math games with which the banzuke is played, but I understood that one goes up one full rank per KK win (in theory). This would make Ryuden still one rank ahead. But again, you are welcome to correct me.
  2. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    I hope that someone more versed than me in ranking criteria will provide a more thorough explanation, but as far as I saw winning a yusho always gives a minor boost to the final score. Moreover, the playoff was Daiamami vs. Nikishifuji (not to mention that Nikishifuji also defeated Daiamami in their regular bout on Day 1), so we can say that Nikishifuji earned his boost "on the field". Just consider the Juryo banzuke for Nagoya. Score-wise (if I did my math correctly), Ryuden has right to a spot at J1, while both Daiamami and Nikishifuji have right at a J2 spot. However, Kagayaki with a 6-9 score at M17w is supposed to land exactly at J2w. This means there is an empty J1 slot. The banzuke committee has three possibilities: either go easy with Kagayaki (again) and give him J1w, or over-promote one of the J2 candidates. IMHO Nikishifuji has more rights since he defeated Daiamami twice and won the yusho in the process. But again, I could be wrong.
  3. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    Just half a rank and he also lost the playoff, so IMHO no. Nikishifuji will likely get precedence as the yusho winner. My draft is J1e Ryuden, J1w Nikishifuji, J2e Daiamami, J2w Kagayaki.
  4. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    Consider that Shodai has a recurring pattern, however. It's not just one bad basho. He basically never show up. I am not arguing he has his reasons (lack of confidence, imposter syndrome, depression), but we just cannot have a perfectly healthy Ozeki playing swing every odd basho. That's also destructive for the basho itself. He just gives points around in the first week just to rush and rack up eight wins in the second to the dismay of rikishi actually in need of their KK. A Maegashira playing the same game would slowly fall in Juryo. And a Yokozuna doing the same would be undoubtedly targeted by the YDC (damn, Shodai as a Yokozuna would barely show up at all, wouldn't he?).
  5. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    Ichinojo aside, I have much the same draft. And also your same expectation about actual Ozeki runs
  6. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    Of course, I was not suggesting that Daieisho will be actually able to get a 14-1 (or a 13-2 yusho). I was rather almost baffled he is technically on the run. Also, I believe that the prerequisites for making Ozeki are a good cutoff for themselves (especially since they put the bar at 33). Both Takakeisho and Mitakeumi are good Ozeki when healthy. Even Shodai Lord Mode got it, but unfortunately it switches on only whether in serious danger of demotion. About Shodai, he is perhaps showing the limits of the kadoban system. He is clearly not performing at Ozeki level, yet he just needs to show up for eight bouts every two bashos and keep the rank. There are things that a KK simply do not show. Does the YDC have the power to forcibly demote him for lack of fighting spirit or something like that? They should seriously consider implementing such a tool at least for cases like Shodai. The guy could even feel relieved from a demotion, he totally needs less pressure and more hunger.
  7. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    I wholeheartedly agree about the stingy promotion policies, but I am not sure they will demote Ichinojo. The COVID exemption policy is very recent and there are no precedents of demoting a rikishi on COVID leave I am aware of - since said policy was first enforced, I mean. Notice that in my reconstruction they will manage to rank everyone up. Now, I am rather new to sumo (became a fan less than one year ago), but since I started watching bashos (since Aki 2021, I believe) I always had the impression that under-promotion is perceived as fair game among the banzuke committee. There are other ways to capitalise a good result aside from immediate promotion. Kiribayama could even build up an Ozeki bid with his 10-5. Same Takanosho. Whelp, even Kotonowaka and Tamawashi could find their 9-6 score a start. Admitting they will score up in Nagoya and Aki, of course. But the point is: good scores in the upper Maegashira ranks can always turn useful. In the meantime, you get the fairest available spot and wait for a san'yaku position to open up.
  8. Hankegami

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    Guess it's time to think about the Nagoya banzuke. My two cents: The upper Maegashira will be heavily under-promoted. The scores of Kotonowaka, Tamawashi, and Takanosho are just technically enough for a Komosubi promotion. Had the NSK a recent history of fair promotions, we would get six Komusubi next basho. But I reckon they prefer to have only two spots at a time. So I believe the three guys up there will have their fair promotion refused. The only strong bid is Kiribayama with his 10-5 at M2e, but I am persuaded they will just ignore his score and put him at M1e. Since Ryuden failed to rack up enough wins to be promoted by numbers, I think the NSK will be faithful to their "no easy promotions" policy and save Azumaryuu's sorry longbottom. I predict that Shohozan, Ishiura, and Kagayaki will go down for Chiyomaru, Hidenoumi, and Tsurugisho. Ryuden at J1e and Nikishifuji at J1w given his yusho. So, for the upper Maegashira I would say it will be something like M1e Kiribayama; M1w Ichinojo; M2e Kotonowaka; M2w Tamawashi; M3e Takanosho; M3w Takayasu. Heavily under-promoted, yet still promoted in a way.
  9. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    Well, if he gets a 14-1 he also gets a yusho nine out of ten. Even in case someone else gets 15-0 (beg to differ with this banzuke), a 14-1 is the yusho equivalent. A yusho should be necessary for a 13-2 (the "Shodai deal"), in that case I would plenty agree.
  10. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    Mitakeumi fought more than expected (considering his no-show of yesterday) but there was no contest at the end. Terunofuji is back in town and everything like that. By the way, I noticed that Daieisho is technically on an Ozeki run now. Would he manage to get a 14-1 in July it's a done deal. Granted, Daieisho never scored that high in his whole career (just checked) but who knows what happens next basho. Not going to bet my money on this, however.
  11. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    Almost. He remained on the edges of the bales. Shodai was just a fraction of inch from a last upset. But he stayed in, and we have at least a KK Ozeki. Oh joy!
  12. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    A-nd Wakatakakage managed to save at least a shred of Ozeki run by going 9-6. On the other hand, Abi is MK. I believe the oyakata are opening a champagne bottle now they can handle Daieisho his Sekiwake slot without opening new ones. For the Komusubi, on the other hand...
  13. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    And he's just fourth placed in the all-time record: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sumo_record_holders#Most_consecutive_career_bouts The current record holder, Aobajo, didn't miss a match from 1964 to 1986, just saying. Anyway, a not secondary detail is that all these Ironmen never went higher than Sekiwake in their career. I guess that getting up to Ozeki is bad for your health. EDIT: Not only Daeisho (11-4) but also Kiribayama is now 10-5 (bad Nephew, bad). The NSK should better make up for extra san'yaku slots or a lot of people will be under-promoted. More than usual, I mean.
  14. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    I wonder whether Mitakeumi is willing to give a try winning against Teru just to cause an upset and a chance especially for Sadanoumi. I have the impression that the Sea Monster is quite a fellow, considering how openly he rooted for fellow veteran and half-Pinoy Takayasu last basho. He might feel the same for Sadanoumi. But of course he could be just too unwell to pull things off. Look like he went out yesterday.
  15. Hankegami

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    A-nd Sadanoumi (unexpectedly?) sukuinages Takanosho. 11-4 for both of them and a golden opportunity for Teru to bulldozer off kadoban Mitakeumi and take his seventh yusho easy. Unless Mitakeumi forces a three-way playoff by winning against Terunofuji. Pretty sure Mitakeumi just got a visit from two extra masseuses/coaches/fans/Sadanoumi&Takanosho. Because, you know, gambarize and everything.