Hankegami

Regular Members
  • Content Count

    366
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

406 Excellent

About Hankegami

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Venice, Italy

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. I'm not really knowledgeable on how sumo stables are run, but I read and heard around that Miyagino-beya might suffer from a severe case of 'too many roosters in the coop'. Hakuho definitively picks up many promising talents, who on turn might be reluctant to submit to local hierarchies. Hokuseiho in particular, as heyagashira, might have used bullying to be sure that no one challenged his right to be obeyed by lower-ranked students. Of course this does not justify him, nor it reflects well on Hakuho anyway. By this same metric, Nihonoseki has a solid core of fellow Nippon Sport Science University mates Onosato, Shirokuma, and Kayo. This means that Onosato, now that he's going to be the heyagashira at Nihonoseki-beya, has at least two acquaintances likely to support him as the undisputed internal leader. Not to mention Onosato's own fame as an amateur sumotori. Now, I realize that I'm talking about rumors, but I can't help but noticing that it makes somewhat sense. Hokuseiho's actions as reported by tabloids appear to be gratuitous cruelty in themselves. Much beyond initial reports on Hokuseiho's purported kleptomania. Framing them within a context of internal competition at least makes some sense to me.
  2. I don't get how Tohakuryu's promotion is even a thing. The Juryo-Makuuchi promotion lineup is Nishikifuji (J-3e), Kitanowaka (J-2w), Takerufuji (J-1e), Daiamami (J0e), and Roga (J0e). Daiamami is also a special case since he gave a KK from J1e (see below). Tohakuryu gave a (J1w) case and in normal circumstances he would take over Mitoryu's spot. He's also sixth in the promotion queue, and his exchange would be (M18w) Endo. Now, I think we all agree that at present the Committee prefers to keep people up than kick them down. They also have already five perfectly justifiable exchanges. I find difficult to believe they are going to force a sixth by over-promoting Tohakuryu by 1.5 ranks instead to under-demoting and keeping Endo by the same 1.5 ranks (M17e). I think we are on the same page here, but I write my opinion for completeness. In that case, Ichinojo had a projected M-7w spot, while Kiribayama had a M0e, so Ichinojo had absolute precedence to fill the only vacant Komusubi slot. Now, a 8-7 is usually considered a get-go for "you're not going to be demoted". There are plenty of cases in which an 8-7 stays still at his old rank because of banzuke lack-of-luck. However, Kiribayama being moved up there shows that a 8-7 M1e must be moved up to Komusubi. I think that the mere fact that he was placed at K2w while Ichinojo was awarded K1w shows that Kiribayama was the one who forced an extra spot. EDIT: I just realized that it could have been also the other way around, sorry. Kirishima had absolute precedence for a slot, but they couldn't deny one to Ichinojo with his result. Anyway, I understand that the golden rule appears to be that a KK at the uppermost rank of each division or sub-division (san'yaku, Makuuchi, Juryo, etc) forces the promotion to the aforementioned KK recipient - see for Instance 8-7 J1e Aoiyama last basho. Intra-san'yaku rules are, of course, different.
  3. Nope, Kiribayama got a K2w slot with his 8-7 from M1e. The numerary K1w slot went to Yusho winner Ichinojo (M2w). See the following Aki 2022 banzuke.
  4. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    Congratulations to Terunofuji, the Tyrannosaurus Rex atop of the sumo food chain. I was totally taken aback by the show of strength and obstinacy that he gave this basho, and in the few days in particular. So, Yusho number 9. If I ever understood anything about Terunofuji, I believe he will now gun for Yusho number 10. After that.... Nah, he's not going to retire unless a) his body gives up, or b) someone else step up to Yokozuna. Kirishima failed to do that just now, and the Ozeki trio (soon quartet) are soon back to square one. Terunofuji is going to gun for Yusho 11, 12, 13 and so on, as long as he manages to dominate like he did today. Terunofuji's protracted dominance is troublesome, however. He just showed that no one is anywhere close to his level despite his bum knees and his hurting lower back. He often loses to some rank-and-file on his way to the Yusho, but never gives an inch to the top dogs. Now, we're going to have four Ozeki in a few days. Kirishima is 0-11, Hoshoryu is 0-10, the upcoming Kotozakura is 0-7. The only one with a few wins under his mawashi is 'ole reliable Takakeisho, who is himself 4-6 but just 1-5 in their last six encounters (but that win in itself gives some credit to the Hamster). Kotonowaka resisted well in the playoff, but he was also constantly on the defense. From the looks of it, we could not see a new Yokozuna for a while yet.
  5. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    Whelp, I didn't expect for a 12-2 arasoi co-leader to be paired against a KK seeking guy. However, as @Seiyashi just pointed out in the other thread, their F2F is much closer than one would expect (7-6). Things could get further spiced up if Tobizaru enters the pitch with a shot for san'yaku and some will to fight hard to get it. All he needs is for M5w Nishikigi and M7w Asanoyama to lose their bouts, and hope for Kotonowaka to be promoted to Ozeki with 32 wins. Now, Nishikigi is against Wakamotoharu (3-7), while Asanoyama faces Daieisho (7-13). Chances are good. This way, the lineup for san'yaku would look like Wakamotoharu (M-4e), Abi (at least M1w), Tobizaru (M3e), Nishikigi (M4w) and Asanoyama (M4w). With Wakamotoharu going up to fill Kotonowaka's old spot, the two Komusubi slots would go to Abi and Tobizaru. Sure, if Kotonowaka is denied his promotion all would be for naught, but a Monkey should try.
  6. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    Good Day 14, folks. As a figure of speech, of course, because I was rooting for Kirishima and Atamifuji for the win, and them both lost. Of course. So, it looks like the next Yokozuna is going to be Terunofuji again. Kirishima dropped to 11-3 with a guy against with he had a 10-3 record in favor. Sure, he can still get both Cup and the white rope - in theory. All he needs is to beat Teru to level their scores, and hope for Kotonowaka to lose his bout tomorrow so to trigger a 12-3 playoff. One can even argue that beating the Yokozuna and post a 12-3J is enough to trigger a discussion, but I wouldn't bet my house on that (Takakeisho was denied the rope with a 12-3J 13-2Y back in AKI-Kyushu 2020). With 3 losses on him, Kirishima needs the Cup to force his own promotion. But what are the chances? He has an unflattering 0-10 record against Terunofuji, and the latter showed that previous records against him do matter just the day before against his other (of many) 0-6 punching ball Kotonowaka. Let's be honest: I believe that's the end of the road for Kirby. Although he might be more successful in another occasion in this very year. With Kirby out, the Cup is 99% down to Terunofuji and Kotonowaka. Which is no grand news for the latter (see their F2F record). But he can still get 13-2 and lock his promotion to Ozeki. With Hoshoryu out, Kotonowaka is out of contenders for Day 15. I believe that his only decent pairing would be against 9-2-3 M7w Asanoyama*. He has a uninspiring record against the former Ozeki (0-2) but Asanoyama is also nursing an injury. In other words, the chances of a Terunofuji vs. Kotonowaka playoff are high IMHO. Which means a likely Terunofuji 9th Yusho (7-0, ladies and gentlemen) and also that Teru will go intai in yet another basho. If he get 9, he will absolutely want to get 10. * He's going to get Tobizaru instead. Well, I tried.
  7. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    Totally missed that, thanks.
  8. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    I think that they paired him up against Atamifuji tomorrow in part for this reason. He has a chance to give a MK to Atomic, put him out of contention of san'yaku, and put himself up to 9 wins with a chance to hit 10 in one sweep. Opposite test for Atamifuji. He already failed to beat Asanoyama on Day 15 in Aki, but if he manages to turn tables and go 7-7 he will likely have a relative softball for a KK on Day 15 since he already fought everyone in the joy.
  9. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    You rang? Anyway, Terunofuji looked dominant against Kotonowaka. I was low-key expecting a rematch of their last F2F in May 2023, when KNW gave a huge run for his money to Teru. This time he was immediately yorikiri'd out instead. Of course, it's 99% because Teru got a much better grip, but still KNW is no lightweight. Now, the round robin will go on to Day 14. Like many others here, I also foresee a Kirby vs. Koto & Teru vs. Hosh. Sumo Database is not available as I write (too many people getting in?), but I'm positive that Koto and Hosh are the dark horses for this pairing. Kotonowaka has not won against Kirishima in a while - he even lost in Nagoya, when Kirby was nursing an injury -, while Terunofuji used to make quick work of Hoshoryu. Given what we've seen today, the likeliest upset can be made by Kotonowaka, who would put his Ozeki promotion in danger if he drops a third one (Kirishima is in a much similar situation, though, just one rung higher). Teru, instead, showed today that he's still the boss of the ring and looks like a safer bet for respecting his previous records. But never say never. Anyway, a win from Terunofuji and Kirishima would give us a nice not-actually-a-playoff situation on Day 15. One rung below, the fight for a san'yaku spot is still very open. Wakamotoharu is the only guaranteed comeback. Atamifuji kept his hopes for occupying the second spot alive, courtesy of Kinbozan (nice henka, Kinbo). Abi, Tobizaru, and Nishikigi are all 7-6 and will certainly do the impossible to win out and put up a claim for that spot. Down at M7w, a returning Asanoyama is also lurking out for an upset claim from the rear. Things could be spiced up with a Kotonowaka promotion to Ozeki (still possible with a 12-3), in which case WMH will get his old Sekiwake spot back, and the race for Komusubi will have two spots to give instead of one. I found that decision, well, not much agreeable. Shortly before they deemed Shodai vs. Tsurugisho a torinaoshi (and Shodai lost the rematch) because - I believe - Shodai was flying while executing his technique. No matter that Tsurugisho landed first by ages. Now Ura flies while, uh, flying (a nice barrel round, 10/10) but he wins because Tobizaru stepped out first. Even the crowd was chanting for a torinaoshi. Color me surprised.
  10. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    The real life Street Fighter II match between Abi1 and Abi2 ended up with a convincing win from Abi1 in his original black mawashi. Abi1 and Abi2 clashed as foreseeable, arms vs. arms. However, since real life is not 100% video gaming, the actual Abi showed greater strength and pushed back Ichiyamamoto arguably with good ease. Once-in-a-life experience nevertheless.
  11. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    I believe they are trying to avoid another Tokushoryu Yusho style upset. Incidentally, a video interview to Tokushoryu by Nihonoseki-oyakata (good 'ole Kisenosato) was uploaded just yesterday on YouTube (here) and of course it focused on his "Cinderella Yusho" but also on his easy schedule (14-1, only joy to face co-leader Shodai and big boy Takakeisho). It didn't help that Tokushoryu was heavily mauled by the joy in the next tournament at M2w (4-11, although he got a kinboshi in the process, courtesy from Kakuryu). By contrast, more recent Yusho upset candidates have been put against the joy as early as they got 8 wins and secured their KK.
  12. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    Good Day 10, y'all. Some short comments. Terunofuji got 8 wins after sacking Kinbozan (literally) and he's now KK. This means that he's not going to pull an Onokuni anymore (7-8 in Aki 1989). I also believe that Teru is going to stick around until the end at this point - barring injuries. Who knows, he could even remain in the Yusho run despite everything. He's Teru, after all. Kirishima got a hard run for his money against a pushy Onosho. He managed to resist and pull a hatakikomi nevertheless. Not dominant sumo, but he didn't get lucky either. He showed great, great resistance. Kotonowaka schooled Onosato, showing that the latter cannot quite handle the san'yaku yet. The popular Four Tits keeps cruising strong, and I doubt that Oho is going to give him any trouble tomorrow. I also hope that the Committee is going to leave Oho be with Day 12, the poor lad is 6-4 and projected to go 6-5 tomorrow. So, Kotonowaka is sole leader after today, and I doubt that he's going to lose his position before the very last days. I also think that he's going to have a hard go the last three days (13-14-15). Considering how things are shaping out, I believe we are going to get a regular finishing this time around. This means that his final three opponents are going to be Terunofuji (0-6 record), Kirishima (3-10 but also 1-8 in their last nine F2F), and Hoshoryu (6-10 but for once 3-0 in the last F2F), not necessarily in this order. By expecting Kotonowaka to arrive on Day 13 undefeated (11-1), he could even follow his previous records and pull off an Ozeki promotion with a 12-3 (32/3). However, we know that Four Tits is looking for a Yusho (Sumo Prime Time interview) so he's likely going to fight for that. Among the runner-ups, the most unnerved is surely Kirishima with his Yusho & Yokozuna run. Tomorrow he starts facing the upper san'yaku with Daieisho (10-6 but also 5-1 in recent F2F) and, by the look of his match vs. Onosho from today, he's going to resist Daieisho's pushes once again. Day 12 is perhaps going to be Onosato and, by the look of the latter's bout vs. Kotonowaka, Kirby's chances to reach Day 13 with a 10-2 score are good. Now, Kirby holds a 10-3 record against Kotonowaka (see above), while his record against Hoshoryu is on balance (7-8 but 2-2 in their last four). Of course, his main problem is Teru (0-10). Ideally, Kirishima should go on a sweep unless the Yusho bar goes as low as 12-3, in which case he can afford one loss (but he still MUST win the tournament). IMHO he was somehow trying to break Hoshoryu's belt grip. Or he just panicked. For what I saw, Daieisho at first tried to counter Hoshoryu's grip with a grip of his own, but he failed to get one (he grasped Hosh's meaty side instead). Nephew then shoved him aside, and at this point Daieisho did his jump.
  13. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    About my post, I was talking about a jun-yusho exclusively. Of course, a 12-3Y would do the spell (25/30 as back-to-back always resulted in a promotion). The issue is whether the Yusho line will fall as low as 12-3. Terunofuji is not in shape to fend out the most spirited rikishi (otherwise he would take the Yusho himself), and the leading pack include 7-1 Kotonowaka (a belligerent Sekiwake with a shot at Ozeki) and Asanoyama (a former Ozeki). We also have to keep an eye on the whole 6-2 bunch aside from Terunofuji and Kirishima, that is Hoshoryu and Daieisho. I highly doubt that anyone up there is going to be easy on Kirishima so that he can get the rope. Now, there will be sure a bit of trimming in the arasoi as the tournament goes on. Already tomorrow we are going to get Kotonowaka (7-1) vs. Daieisho (6-2), but also Onosho (7-1) vs. Asanoyama (7-1). Other Darwinian matches will certainly follow as the tournament approaches its end. But Kirishima is still in the chasing pack and has very little room for errors. He surely needs to 1) defeat the leaders, and 2) remain undefeated. If he drops another one, he's going to require someone else to do the dirty job for him and make his competitors to bite the dust and force a playoff. And I'm damn sure that Kirishima himself is perfectly aware of that, at least by judging by the lost expression that he showed to the cameras after his bout against Tobizaru today. Going down a 12-3 path is extremely risky at this point (especially by considering that a 12-3JY would mean rejection).
  14. Hankegami

    Michinoku beya likely to close

    Is this even an option? I've always taken that rikishi from closed heyas can relocate only in other heyas of the same ichimon. Michinoku is Tokitsukaze, while Tatsunami is Dewanoumi (see this list). Anyway, according to Wikipedia the Tokitsukaze ichimon has the following heyas, aside from Michinoku: Tokitsukaze (17 rikishi with Shodai and Tokihayate), Arashio (15 rikishi with Wakabros), Isenoumi (also 15 rikishi with Nishikigi), Oitekaze (20 rikishi with Daieisho, Tobizaru and 5 other sekitori), and of course now also Otowayama. By my understanding of heya transfer policies, Kirishima and his heya-mates can choose between those stables alone. On paper, the best choice would be Oitekaze (20 people, 7 sekitori, 2 in the joy including a certain troublesome Monkey). Arashio would likely come second best, with Wakamotoharu already in the joy and Wakatakakage likely to make a comeback. They are also fellow yotsu guys and probably a boon for Kirishima to polish his yotsu skills. Tokitsukaze and Isenoumi are roughly equivalent, although perhaps being a heya-mate to Shodai would avoid some chaos during tournaments. Finally, Otowayama is a newly established stable and its only boon is Kakuryu being the coach there. But, if Kirishima really made to Ozeki thanks to Kak, he'd perhaps stick with him nevertheless.
  15. Hankegami

    Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

    Good nakabi, everyone! Sure, more for some, less for others. Anyway, here are my usual two cents. It's Holy Sunday, and the soul of Kirishima looked like it left his body to contemplate the Glory of the God of Sumo and how on earth he managed to lose against Tobizaru. Or at least he looked like that while the cameras zoomed on him after his bout. Sure, Kirby had a slightly disadvantageous 9-10 record against the Monkey (now 9-11), but he also won their last two meetings (see here). Now he's in an awkward position, with two losses and one loss behind the 7-1 leading pack (Kotonowaka, Asanoyama, Onosho, Onosato). Worse than that, he cannot lose anymore if he wants to get his coveted white rope IMHO. I know that I'm going to be redundant here, but let's recap the "rule of the thumb" for a Yokozuna promotion. On one hand, a back-to-back Yusho is a guaranteed promotion (on paper), but Kirishima just complicated his chances today. But at this point he'd better win this basho if he wants to be sure of his promotion, because a jun-yusho could be not enough. I discussed several times that since 2004 (Kaio's run) the YDC appeared to take a Y-JY formula only with a minimum of 26/30 wins. Kaio failed to get that many, same for Takakeisho in 2020 and 2023 (both gave a 25/30). Since then, there have been only three successful runs, Kakuryu (14-1D, 14-1Y), Kisenosato (12-3J, 14-1Y), and Terunofuji (12-3Y, 14-1D). Another issue, however, is that every successful run also presented a 14-1 showing, which could be problematic for Kirishima. In fact, there's also a 26/30 Y-JY run which didn't result in a promotion, that is Hakuho's 2006 very first two basho as an Ozeki (13-2Y, 13-2J). That was a highly controversial refusal, however, especially since Rijicho Kitanoumi publicly said that 13 wins should have sufficed (which also backs the validity of a general 26/30 rule). Now, let's get back to Kirishima. He just busted a potential 14-1, and he's now right into "Hakuho territory" of a possible rejection with a 13-2Y, 13-2J (and we still have 7 days to go). One more loss, and he's full into Kaio-Takaeisho territory. A last thing to notice is that both Kisenosato and Terunofuji came from a period of strong showings before getting there, with in the opinion of many here also contributed to their promotion. Kakuryu didn't, but he also gave a strong 28/30 post and he basically forced his own promotion by sheer numbers. On the other hand, Hakuho was a 21 y.o. newly promoted Ozeki, which most likely brought the YDC to reject his candidacy. Kirishima is somewhat in the middle. He comes from a strong 2023, but nowhere as strong as Kinenosato's 2016 nor Terunofuji's 2021. He's also a recently appointed Ozeki. In short, there is room for his case to be rejected, and he can only post a back-to-back to avoid that with certainty. Back to the rest of Day 8, I didn't expect Asanoyama's loss against Tamawashi, especially after a 5-0 strike in his favor by the records (here). The Grand Old Man of Sumo is as dangerous as ever, and also showed that Asanoyama might not be the unstoppable truck he has been against the middle Maegashira ranks he has faced up until today. Same indirectly goes for fellow 7-1 leaders Onosho (M14w) and Onosato (M15w). Tomorrow at least one will drop down to second place thanks to Onosho vs. Asanoyama (2-9 record). The only san'yaku guy in the leading pack, Kotonowaka, got a cozy freebie by absence of injured Takayasu and went up to 7-1 without a sweat. But he could sweat a lot tomorrow as he's paired against 6-2 runner-up guy Daieisho for a Sekiwake battle (very challenging 7-5 record). On a last note, Terunofuji managed to keep his 6-2 runner-up spot against Ryuden, but looked unconvincing to me. However, he's still in for another day, and tomorrow he will face a possibly problematic Nishikigi (3-2 record). The latter won their last match-up (Nagoya 2023, Teru retired with a 1-3-11), but before that Teru gave him a 3-0 sweep. In short, he will be yet another test to see how much the Yokozuna is fit. Nothing much else to say. There's a group of battered veterans in red demotion zone in the lower banzuke (0-7-8 Aoiyama, 1-7 Tomokaze, 1-7 Endo, 2-6 Myogiryu). Barring surprises, the guys in upper Juryo are going to have quite a few promotion spots available after this basho.