Reonito 1,335 Posted January 25 6 hours ago, Gurowake said: Kirishima might still get 13 wins without the Yusho or a playoff loss if his only loss is to Kotonowaka He's already 10-2, he must win out to get to 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,784 Posted January 25 (edited) 8 hours ago, Gurowake said: The yusho is down to the top 4 rikishi who will undoubtedly all face each other over the last 3 days. Given this, the winning score will be at least 12, as someone will have to get at least 2 wins. The only way the Yusho score will be 12 will be due to a 3-way tie and any 3 rikishi among the 4 might compose the tie; either Kotonowaka goes 0-3 and the rest 2-1 so the 3 currently at 10 finish with 12, or Kotonowaka finishes 1-2 and no one finishes 3-0 which requires two rikishi to go 2-1 to balance things out, and it could be any 2 of the 3 currently at 10 wins. If the Yusho score is 13 and Kotonowaka doesn't have that score, there will not be a playoff, as only one of the rikishi with 10 wins now can get 13. If Kotonowaka scores 13, then he still might tie with a 3-0 rikishi currently with 10 wins. And obviously if the Yusho score is 14 it's Kotonowaka only in the lead. Or put in "every match is a coin toss" probabilities: 12.5% 14-1 outright (Kotonowaka) 3.125% x3 13-2 two-way (Kotonowaka + other) 28.125% 13-2 outright (Kotonowaka) 9.375% x3 13-2 outright (other) 6.25% x3 12-3 three-way (Kotonowaka + two others) 3.125% 12-3 three-way (no Kotonowaka) Edited January 25 by Asashosakari 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kaninoyama 1,694 Posted January 25 Is there anyone who wins the matches he should lose and lose the matches he should win more than Shodai? 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,335 Posted January 25 12 minutes ago, Asashosakari said: Or put in "every match is a coin toss" probabilities: 12.5% 14-1 outright (Kotonowaka) 3.125% x3 13-2 two-way (Kotonowaka + other) 28.125% 13-1 outright (Kotonowaka) 9.375% x3 13-1 outright (other) 6.25% x3 12-3 three-way (Kotonowaka + two others) 3.125% 12-3 three-way (no Kotonowaka) I like this way of looking at it. 40.625% Kotonowaka wins outright, 28.125% someone else does (+3.125% playoff without him). 9.375% two-way playoff involving Kotonowaka, and if we're flipping coins, that gives him another another 4.6875%, and 18.75% three-way playoff, which gives him 6.25%. So Kotonowaka 51.6%, the other three 48.4%, or ~16% each. I know, they're not actually coin flips. The odds of a 12-3 yusho score (~22%) are higher than I would have guessed without doing the math. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,784 Posted January 25 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Reonito said: I like this way of looking at it. 40.625% Kotonowaka wins outright, 28.125% someone else does (+3.125% playoff without him). 9.375% two-way playoff involving Kotonowaka, and if we're flipping coins, that gives him another another 4.6875%, and 18.75% three-way playoff, which gives him 6.25%. So Kotonowaka 51.6%, the other three 48.4%, or ~16% each. I know, they're not actually coin flips. The odds of a 12-3 yusho score (~22%) are higher than I would have guessed without doing the math. Also, and that's not immediately apparent from the data I listed: In that hypothetical Kotonowaka has 50/50 conditional odds to be part of a playoff if he just wins one match to finish 12-3: 6.25% x3 nobody else finishes better, 6.25% x3 there's somebody at 13-2. (The difference to the listed 9.375% x3 for other outright 13-2 winners is that it also includes scenarios where Kotonowaka ends 11-4.) Edited January 25 by Asashosakari 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,335 Posted January 25 (edited) Edited January 25 by Reonito 18 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rocks 1,807 Posted January 26 Grandson Oho " Not quite, but I don't have a weird split in my moobs at least, so I got that going for me." 1 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 688 Posted January 26 55 minutes ago, Rocks said: Grandson Oho " Not quite, but I don't have a weird split in my moobs at least, so I got that going for me." 12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yamanashi 3,724 Posted January 26 Annnnnnnnnd @Bunbukuchagama wins the Oscar for "Most Creative Use of a Futurama Character." 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Katooshu 3,132 Posted January 26 Hakuyozan...........jesus christ man why 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,806 Posted January 26 18 minutes ago, Katooshu said: Hakuyozan...........jesus christ man why It's his "own sumo".... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kaninoyama 1,694 Posted January 26 (edited) Seems so odd that Onosato just faced a Sekiwake, Ozeki, and Yokozuna, and now he's relegated back to being a nobody in the second Makuuchi match of the day. Edited January 26 by Kaninoyama 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yamanashi 3,724 Posted January 26 12 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said: Seems so odd that Onosato just faced a Sekiwake, Ozeki, and Yokozuna, and now he's relegated back to being a nobody in the second Makuuchi match of the day. He was an M15 who might steal a Yusho; now he's just an M15. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,806 Posted January 26 Why am I still breathing? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hankegami 412 Posted January 26 The real life Street Fighter II match between Abi1 and Abi2 ended up with a convincing win from Abi1 in his original black mawashi. Abi1 and Abi2 clashed as foreseeable, arms vs. arms. However, since real life is not 100% video gaming, the actual Abi showed greater strength and pushed back Ichiyamamoto arguably with good ease. Once-in-a-life experience nevertheless. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WAKATAKE 2,631 Posted January 26 Still no day 14 torikumi announcement??? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 688 Posted January 26 1 minute ago, WAKATAKE said: Still no day 14 torikumi announcement??? No. They probably decided to wait for the results (why?). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Katooshu 3,132 Posted January 26 (edited) Ooof, Kinbozan winces when climbing on the dohyo for the makuuchi intro, then proceeds to do exactly the type of sumo you'd expect vs Atamifuji Edited January 26 by Katooshu Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 688 Posted January 26 16 minutes ago, Katooshu said: Ooof, Kinbozan winces when climbing on the dohyo for the makuuchi intro, then proceeds to do exactly the type of sumo you'd expect vs Atamifuji His knee is bad. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Katooshu 3,132 Posted January 26 That was ridiculously slick by Kirishima 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chartorenji 235 Posted January 26 (edited) Kirishima is 10-0 versus Kotonowaka, good chance he remains level with Terunofuji. (If Teruno beats Kotonowaka here ofc.) Edited January 26 by Chartorenji Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Akinomaki 39,764 Posted January 26 Looked a bit like an ozeki jungyo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kaninoyama 1,694 Posted January 26 Miyagino in the NHK announcer booth was certain he saw Ura's finger flick sand before Tobizaru's foot stepped out and I concur. Neither the gyoji nor shimpan agreed, however, so a flying Ura gets the win. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Akinomaki 39,764 Posted January 26 TF knows how to beat the upstart 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Terunoshoryu 6 Posted January 26 19 hours ago, Terunoshoryu said: Day 13 Terunofuji - Kotonowaka Kirishima - Hoshoryu Day 14 Terunofuji - Hoshoryu Kirishima - Kotonowaka Day 15 Terunofuji - Kirishima Hoshoryu - Kotonowaka I will bet my whole money on it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
