Kise's Konundrum

[Asojima 2,874]

The past 5 bashos have had Basho Talk topics containing an average of about 750 entries, the majority of which contain comments about Kisenosato's past history, his chances of getting promoted and a plethora of opinions on his worthiness for promotion. Since most of these comments cover several bashos, and the Basho Talk topics are being seriously overloaded, I suggest the use of this topic in Ozumo Discussions to house the ongoing discussion of this subject.

Edited September 25, 2016 by Asojima

[rhyen 1,858]

Seconded

[kuroimori 1,634]

Kisera, sera;

whatever will be, will be;

promotion 's not ours to see;

Kise ra, sera.

[robnplunder 978]

How about .... (courtesy to ABBA)?

I don't want to talk
About the things we've gone through
Though it's hurting me
Now it's history
I've played all my cards
And that's what you've done too
Nothing more to say
No more ace to play

The winner takes it all
The loser standing small

[bettega 433]

I'll try to resume the discussion. There are 3 basic opinions about Kise:

a) Some think he already has the qualifications for a promotion 47 wins in the last 4 basho, with 3 Jun-Yusho

b) Some think he should be promoted in case of a Yusho (the majority and the NSK official position)

c) Some think that his tsuna run should start with a Yusho (or Yusho-doten at least)

[Benevolance 2,534]

I'm not sure I like the suggestion to lower the topic qualifications for Kise. Kise's prospects haven't adequately shown that he's able to be the sole topic of discussion in a thread. And really, in Kise threads, only 9 or 10 out of 15 posts is a quality sumo post. That's hardly topical material. I think until we all see a forum psychologist, Kise's shouldn't become a sole topic of a discussion thread. I mean, we all remember the disappointment of Endo's promotion topics, right?

[rhyen 1,858]

With Hakuho's participation in limbo, does this exponentially increase Kisenosato's chances?

[Nantonoyama 255]

I would not say exponentially, as two yokozuna remain, both multiple yusho winners, and remember that Kisenosato never had a Yusho-Doten, i.e. had never had the same record as the yusho winner.

In the records, out of his 11 jun-yushos, the yusho winners are Hakuho (8), Harumafuji (2) and Terunofuji (1)

Perhaps rather than exponentially we could say significantly... but Hakuho's kyujo is not official yet

Edited September 1, 2016 by Nantonoyama

[Ahogeyama 8]

Something's got to give with Kise. I'm being selective, yes, but he's gone 38-7 with zero fusen wins over the last three basho tournaments. I believe the last wrestler not named Hakuhou to have that sort of record was Harumafuji back during his stretch from September 2012 to January 2013 (39-6), and two of those were 15-0 sweeps.

He has the momentum, but he needs a vital sweep of the top flight of wrestlers--five of those 7 losses have been to yokozuna opponents. If Hakuhou does sit out, this might be his one shot.

[Harry 67]

Do riksihi use sports psychologists or is that a mainstream sports idea? I still think the problem is in Kise's own head. I think he is capable of it if he just believes it and doesn't do what comes naturally when you get close to something you have long sought: you get nervous, you get tight and you mess up and lose matches you would normally win. It is what separates the best from the rest in sports and sadly for Kise he is still in the rest at the moment. 

Hak being out could help, one less Yok to beat could mean the difference for him but the others have still shown they can hoist the cup while he cannot so it may not be enough.

Edited September 1, 2016 by Harry

[inhashi 2,363]

4 hours ago, Harry said:

Do riksihi use sports psychologists or is that a mainstream sports idea?

Kotoshogiku was known to use some techniques from a Tokai U. professor who was/is a leading expert in sports psychology during the time of his ozeki run after he failed to get promoted after Natsu Nagoya 2011.  He was one win shy of the required 33 consecutive in three.  It was after then when his "Kotobauer" became a part of his prep routine.  

Onami of Arashio beya also is known to visit a sports psych. and as of recent is proving to show good results.  

At least the resources are available out there, but whether Kisenosato has taken advantage of them, I'm not so sure.  

Edited September 1, 2016 by inhashi
quoted tournament correction

[sadanoumi_is_my_favorite 8]

Kise promotion advocates: if Goeido wins Aki and Kisenosato finishes 13-2 J, based on Kisenosato's current run could either rikishi become yokozuna with a yusho in Kyushu?

[Rocks 1,810]

6 minutes ago, sadanoumi_is_my_favorite said:

Kise promotion advocates: if Goeido wins Aki and Kisenosato finishes 13-2 J, based on Kisenosato's current run could either rikishi become yokozuna with a yusho in Kyushu?

To your question I'd say yes.

Here's a better question. If Goeido wins Aki and Kisenosato's gets a jun-yousho, THEN in Kyushu Kisenosato wins and Goeido gets a jun-yusho would both become Yokozuna? I say yes, they will.

[sadanoumi_is_my_favorite 8]

19 minutes ago, Rocks said:

To your question I'd say yes.

Here's a better question. If Goeido wins Aki and Kisenosato's gets a jun-yousho, THEN in Kyushu Kisenosato wins and Goeido gets a jun-yusho would both become Yokozuna? I say yes, they will.

It'd need to be a 13-2 jun-yusho, probably, but I think it seems contrary to the sense of being a "champion" that two people could become one at the same time.

[Bumpkin 438]

Double Yokozuna promotions happened in 1961 with Taiho and Kashiwado, then in 1970 with Kitanofuji and Tamanoumi.  BTW if they both got promoted their would be an unprecedented 5 Yokozunae.

[Rocks 1,810]

1 hour ago, sadanoumi_is_my_favorite said:

It'd need to be a 13-2 jun-yusho, probably, but I think it seems contrary to the sense of being a "champion" that two people could become one at the same time.

I think if what I described happened they would have no choice but to promote both. They have made it very clear with Kise that a Yusho/jun-yusho combo is enough. In the situation I described they would have only 2 choices, promote both or promote neither, and there is no way they won't promote Kise if he gets his yusho after a jun-yusho.

1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

Double Yokozuna promotions happened in 1961 with Taiho and Kashiwado, then in 1970 with Kitanofuji and Tamanoumi.  BTW if they both got promoted their would be an unprecedented 5 Yokozunae.

True, but not for long. All 5 would be 30 or older. It would be very hard for all 5 to maintain 10 wins or better, the Yokozuna standard, fighting each other and all the ozeki each basho. You'd see a couple or retirements within a year I would say. Certainly the pressure on Kakuryu would become immense.

[Bumpkin 438]

I think the pressure on Kakuryu is already immense and deservedly so.

[Rocks 1,810]

16 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

I think the pressure on Kakuryu is already immense and deservedly so.

Yes, he isn't looking good at all. If he continues till the end I see him struggling to get to 8-7 let alone 10 wins this basho.  He will not beat Harumafuji. He has been getting beat on a regular basis by Kisenosato, Goeido and Kotoshogiku and will likely lose to them giving him 7 losses. The only Ozeki he may beat is Terunofuji who's got his own problems right now but if he loses to them all he'll be MK.  Even giving him 2 wins out of those 5, which is generous IMHO,  puts him at only 9-6. Hardly Yokozuna like. 

Edited September 19, 2016 by Rocks

[Gurowake 4,149]

Goeido is going to need two absolutely ridiculously outstanding tournaments to be promoted to Yokozuna after having been kadoban four times in two years.  I would say anything less than what Kakuryu did would certainly not be enough, and personally, I wouldn't even promote him if he had two 15-0s back-to-back, even if the second one featured a win over Hakuho, simply due to his inconsistency at even managing a KK.  At least Harumafuji (except for one injury) and Kakuryu were never kadoban, despite their mediocrity.

[Andonishiki 171]

On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2016 at 07:20, bettega said:

I'll try to resume the discussion. There are 3 basic opinions about Kise:

a) Some think he already has the qualifications for a promotion 47 wins in the last 4 basho, with 3 Jun-Yusho

b) Some think he should be promoted in case of a Yusho (the majority and the NSK official position)

c) Some think that his tsuna run should start with a Yusho (or Yusho-doten at least)

in my humble opinion, there should NEVER EVER be a Yokozuna promotion without a Yusho... (not even douten)

Yokozuna means 'Grand Champion'
and a great quote from Ayrton Senna has the perfect description: "Being second is to be the first of the ones who lose"

How can you dare to call yourself a Grand Champion, if you've never won a tournament ???

period.

[Akinomaki 41,748]

The real fun would be: Goeido 14-1D, Kise 13-2.

Would they prolong Kise's yokozuna run even with that ? AND give Goeido one ?

[Benihana 1,971]

Sorry, but Goeido as yokozuna ist a very bad joke. 4-times kadoban and only 1 double-digit kk. Even thinking of him as yok, makes me shiver. Well, at least he could show us, that there can be worse yoks than Kakuryu.

Edited September 19, 2016 by Benihana

[Chiyozakura 163]

6 hours ago, Andonishiki said:

in my humble opinion, there should NEVER EVER be a Yokozuna promotion without a Yusho... (not even douten)

Yokozuna means 'Grand Champion'
and a great quote from Ayrton Senna has the perfect description: "Being second is to be the first of the ones who lose"

How can you dare to call yourself a Grand Champion, if you've never won a tournament ???

period.

Maybe you check the dictionary again because Yokozuna does not mean Grand Champion. That is just an attempt to use a known English term which in reality misses the point.

9 hours ago, Rocks said:

I think if what I described happened they would have no choice but to promote both. They have made it very clear with Kise that a Yusho/jun-yusho combo is enough. In the situation I described they would have only 2 choices, promote both or promote neither, and there is no way they won't promote Kise if he gets his yusho after a jun-yusho.

Why would they have to promote both? It is a borderline case and while Kisenosato has been on the border for quite a while Goeido has been a terrible Ozeki. Even if he wins two yusho back to back there would be good arguments not to promote him.

 

I think people on this forum tend to get carried away pretty quickly lately. I seem to recall that just months ago Kotoyuki of all people was seen as the next Yokozuna just because everything fell into place for him in one basho. Now it happens for Okinoumi in one week and he is considered the odds-on favourite. If Hakuho had that kind of first week I would agree but Okinoumi has never figured in the Yusho race before and is also not known to dominate the lower Sanyaku and the Maegashira. So it is very likely that he will lose some in the second week while you have Harumafuji at just one loss and a couple of Ozeki in the Yusho hunt as well. So Okinoumi as the Yusho winner is still very much a long shot.

[RabidJohn 2,054]

12 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

The real fun would be: Goeido 14-1D, Kise 13-2.

Would they prolong Kise's yokozuna run even with that ? AND give Goeido one ?

Well in that case Kise's 13-2 wouldn't be a jun-yusho, would it? Nevertheless, I think they'd prolong his run just for being Mr Consistency.

Goeido's 14-1D would have to be the start of a tsuna run, but hey, this is Mr Inconsistency we're talking about here so that would be as far as it goes 'cos he'll go MK and kadoban again after that!

[Hakuyobaku 33]

Well, talk is talk, fact is Kisenosato is now 6 wins away from becoming that first Japanese yokozuna in.. how many years is that? A healthy generation..

Ok, that may be 7 wins if Harumafuji keeps this up. Sorry but I can't believe Goeido will go over 12

Edited September 19, 2016 by Hakuyobaku