Basho Talk - Natsu Basho 2016 +++ Spoiler Alert! +++

[Benevolance 2,534]

The important thing is that this was an exciting basho, Hakuho was dominant, Kise was a runner up, and Goeidou was Goeidouish. All is as it should be in NSKlandia.

[Kintamayama 47,194]

http://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/1651976.html

The YDC has convened and will consider Kisenosato for promotion to Yokozuna on the following conditions: 14-15 wins AND the yusho. 13-2 yusho will not cut it. YDC Chairman Moriya stated that they don't want to promote in haste which in turn may speed up his retirement.

Exactly the same criteria as for May, so what's new?

[RabidJohn 2,056]

http://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/1651976.html

The YDC has convened and will consider Kisenosato for promotion to Yokozuna on the following conditions: 14-15 wins AND the yusho. 13-2 yusho will not cut it. YDC Chairman Moriya stated that they don't want to promote in haste which in turn may speed up his retirement.

Exactly the same criteria as for May, so what's new?

What's new, to me at least, is the YDC's long-term view.

Kisenosato hasn't yet had the 'equivalent performance' at any single basho that would automatically put him on a conventional tsuna run, but they appear to be recognising the fact that he's out-performed 2 yokozuna for the last 2-3 basho; i.e. that's his equivalent performance, considered over several basho.

I think it's fair to balance that sort of shift in thinking with the requirement of an outstanding 14-1 or zensho yusho.

However, I also think they might shift their thinking again if Kise somehow manages to beat all 3 yokozuna on the way to a 13-2 yusho...

Edited May 23, 2016 by RabidJohn

[Atenzan 1,084]

http://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/1651976.html

The YDC has convened and will consider Kisenosato for promotion to Yokozuna on the following conditions: 14-15 wins AND the yusho. 13-2 yusho will not cut it. YDC Chairman Moriya stated that they don't want to promote in haste which in turn may speed up his retirement.

Exactly the same criteria as for May, so what's new?

What's new, to me at least, is the YDC's long-term view.

Kisenosato hasn't yet had the 'equivalent performance' at any single basho that would automatically put him on a conventional tsuna run, but they appear to be recognising the fact that he's out-performed 2 yokozuna for the last 2-3 basho; i.e. that's his equivalent performance, considered over several basho.

I think it's fair to balance that sort of shift in thinking with the requirement of an outstanding 14-1 or zensho yusho.

However, I also think they might shift their thinking again if Kise somehow manages to beat all 3 yokozuna on the way to a 13-2 yusho...

Ιf the YDC promote Kise, then we can say that they are off their collective noggins. (noggin? nogginses? Hodor.) I repeat: 13-2 is not enough to get you a yusho 57% of the time (credit to Gurowake I think.)

Kisenosato has never ever ever gotten more than 13 wins.

A yokozuna should be able to do that with some regularity in his purple patches. (Kakuryuu can. Ama has 3 zenshos.)

Kise has never been yokozuna material. He is a very good ozeki who can reach the best of his ability with relative ease and consistency. He is less able and less winning than peak Takanonami. Did Takanonami deserve the tsuna in the mid-90s? That's up to you to decide. But you can only argue for Kise's case if you think that Takanonami deserved the tsuna too.

[Fukurou 534]

A comment was made upthread about Hakuho blocking Kise from getting the wins he needs for promotion. Before Hak there was another pretty good Yokozuna by the name of Asashoryu. I wonder how many people he blocked during his time. (we all know what Hakuho resorted to against him to get promoted)

[ronnie 221]

A comment was made upthread about Hakuho blocking Kise from getting the wins he needs for promotion. Before Hak there was another pretty good Yokozuna by the name of Asashoryu. I wonder how many people he blocked during his time. (we all know what Hakuho resorted to against him to get promoted)

Who would we be talking about with Asashoryu? Kaio?, Chiyotaikai?, Tochiazuma perhaps?

Maybe he did them a favour.

[Asashosakari 20,225]

Kise has never been yokozuna material. He is a very good ozeki who can reach the best of his ability with relative ease and consistency. He is less able and less winning than peak Takanonami. Did Takanonami deserve the tsuna in the mid-90s? That's up to you to decide. But you can only argue for Kise's case if you think that Takanonami deserved the tsuna too.

I suspect Kise's records would look somewhat better, too, if he was allowed to face three more opponents of the Tamawashi/Sadanoumi/Toyonoshima level every basho rather than Hakuho/Kotoshogiku/Tochiozan (or whomever you want to equate to Takanohana/Wakanohana/Takatoriki)...

Edit: Make that four, I forgot about Akinoshima.

Edited May 23, 2016 by Asashosakari

[Fukurou 534]

A comment was made upthread about Hakuho blocking Kise from getting the wins he needs for promotion. Before Hak there was another pretty good Yokozuna by the name of Asashoryu. I wonder how many people he blocked during his time. (we all know what Hakuho resorted to against him to get promoted)

Who would we be talking about with Asashoryu? Kaio?, Chiyotaikai?, Tochiazuma perhaps?

Maybe he did them a favour.

Well gee dude, I don't know. That's why I asked the question.

Or are people only allowed to ask about stuff they already know the answer to, just to show how kewl they are and how much more they (think they) know than everyone else?

[d_golem 213]

A comment was made upthread about Hakuho blocking Kise from getting the wins he needs for promotion. Before Hak there was another pretty good Yokozuna by the name of Asashoryu. I wonder how many people he blocked during his time. (we all know what Hakuho resorted to against him to get promoted)

Who would we be talking about with Asashoryu? Kaio?, Chiyotaikai?, Tochiazuma perhaps?

Maybe he did them a favour.

Well gee dude, I don't know. That's why I asked the question.

Or are people only allowed to ask about stuff they already know the answer to, just to show how kewl they are and how much more they (think they) know than everyone else?

That's why sometimes I started my posts with "I don't know much about this, but...." or "I'm a sumo newbie, so I might be wrong....". I know I will always mostly be interested in the spectacle that is ozumo and not so much in the history details.

[Iginishiki2 8]

Kise has never been yokozuna material. He is a very good ozeki who can reach the best of his ability with relative ease and consistency. He is less able and less winning than peak Takanonami. Did Takanonami deserve the tsuna in the mid-90s? That's up to you to decide. But you can only argue for Kise's case if you think that Takanonami deserved the tsuna too.

I suspect Kise's records would look somewhat better, too, if he was allowed to face three more opponents of the Tamawashi/Sadanoumi/Toyonoshima level every basho rather than Hakuho/Kotoshogiku/Tochiozan (or whomever you want to equate to Takanohana/Wakanohana/Takatoriki)...

Edit: Make that four, I forgot about Akinoshima.

That brought me back to a thought I had on Senshuraku - Shohozan is the new Takatoriki (v. 201x). Also, I wholeheartily agree that Kisenosato is the best of the current Ozeki crop. Is he a yokozuna level? It is very hard to judge when there is Hakuho around who is a living and active history book of records, plus two other Yokozuna(e) who have to struggle with this fact alone. I would say he is 50-50 there given the current banzuke and opponents.

[Dapeng 236]

Kise has never been yokozuna material. He is a very good ozeki who can reach the best of his ability with relative ease and consistency. He is less able and less winning than peak Takanonami. Did Takanonami deserve the tsuna in the mid-90s? That's up to you to decide. But you can only argue for Kise's case if you think that Takanonami deserved the tsuna too.

I suspect Kise's records would look somewhat better, too, if he was allowed to face three more opponents of the Tamawashi/Sadanoumi/Toyonoshima level every basho rather than Hakuho/Kotoshogiku/Tochiozan (or whomever you want to equate to Takanohana/Wakanohana/Takatoriki)...

Edit: Make that four, I forgot about Akinoshima.

That brought me back to a thought I had on Senshuraku - Shohozan is the new Takatoriki (v. 201x). Also, I wholeheartily agree that Kisenosato is the best of the current Ozeki crop. Is he a yokozuna level? It is very hard to judge when there is Hakuho around who is a living and active history book of records, plus two other Yokozuna(e) who have to struggle with this fact alone. I would say he is 50-50 there given the current banzuke and opponents.

It's not fair to require Kise to be as good as Hakuho to be promoted. On average, Kise's performance is no worse than the other two yokozuna. With Hakuho remaining active on dohyo, everyone will be in his shadow. That's why no one blamed the other two yokozuna although they performed poorly.

Anyway, if Kise yushos next basho even at 13-2, I believe NSK will change their mind and promote him.

[Gurowake 4,151]

I think he's still somewhat in the shadow of the 9-6 he made immediately before the two 13-2s. Yes, Harumafuji and Kakuryu had similarly mediocre records right before their Yokozuna runs, but 14-1 is significantly more impressive than 13-2 if you look at as "half as many losses", and they managed it against effectively the same top-flight competition. If he can put together a few more tournaments in a row with at least a dozen wins, then I personally wouldn't have a problem promoting him as long as he gets one Yusho at some point, but I think the YDC wants to see at least one 14+ win tournament from him like the two Yokozuna around his skill level did for two straight tournaments.

[hamcornheinz 839]

You have to remember, both of Kakuryu's losses were against okinoumi, he dominated all the sanyaku, ozeki and yokozuna.

[RabidJohn 2,056]

It's not fair to require Kise to be as good as Hakuho to be promoted.

Nobody does!

The fact that the YDC has said Kise can have the tsuna for a 14-1Y is ample evidence of a lowering of expectation - and it's possible (however unlikely) that he could lose to Hak again and still get it.

He's coming very close now, which is why we're all discussing his prospects.

Edited May 25, 2016 by RabidJohn

[hamcornheinz 839]

I really hope for the future of sumo that he doesn't become a yokozuna.

[SkinnySumo 32]

I really hope for the future of sumo that he doesn't become a yokozuna.

Don't worry...he simply won't. The gap that he has to jump through is between a recovering Terunofuji and a declining Hakuho. And its already shrinking as it is. Kisenosato couldn't win the yusho when Hakuho and Harumafuji were absent. Sad truth is that the only man between him and that cup is not Hakuho, but Kisenosato.

[Hakuhonofan 334]

Maybe Kisenosato is a late bloomer like Chiyonofuji. You never know.

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

Maybe Kisenosato is a late bloomer like Chiyonofuji. You never know.

You mean the Chiyonofuji who was in low makuuchi / juryo at 28 years? While Kisenosato reached Makuuchi shortly after his 18th birthday and never looked back? Even if Kisenosato improves at this stage, a comparison with Chiyonofuji forbids itself, as Kisenosato in reality is in the age record lists for young age.

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

If Kisenosato manages to yusho at 14-1, his promotion would be on par with Wakanohana II and (The MUCH Maligned) Onokuni, who both had 40 out of 45 wins across three tournaments.

Hearing all the different opinions here on the forums, I cant help but wish that Kisenosato somehow does it, and has an Asahifuji-like short reign on top, it would be nice. Even if he would retire with just 2 yusho, it would still count.

[ryafuji 824]

Maybe Kisenosato is a late bloomer like Chiyonofuji. You never know.

You mean the Chiyonofuji who was in low makuuchi / juryo at 28 years?

Actually Chiyonofuji was already a yokozuna by age 26. But your basic point stands - he certainly hadn't had over a decade in makuuchi before promotion, as Kisenosato has.

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

Sometimes I think becoming Yokozuna isn't meant to be. The trick here is that once you get promoted and you start doing poorly, then all of your achievements prior to becoming Yokozuna is easily torn down. There were many ozeki in the past who strived and had better and prolonged careers because they didn't make Yokozuna. And this helped them to the end wind up in certain record books. For example, Kaio would have never broken Chiyonofuji's wins records had he made Yokozuna. On top of that both he and Chiyotaikai would have never set the ozeki longevity records had they made yokozuna. A favorite thing of my dad's, Konishiki would probably never had had the rivalry that amused sumo fans with Mainoumi had he made Yokozuna. And I think the same goes for those who DID end up making Yokozuna. Futahaguro, Onokuni, Mienoumi, Asahifuji, Takanosato, Wakanohana II and Wakanohana III all ended up having issues and while some of them did win yusho during their tenures, they all didn't last long at the rank.

I would rather see that Kisenosato wins the yusho first, then they start talking about another tsuna-run. I think there is no reason to hurry things up only to have it blow up in everybody's faces. For all we know Kisenosato could survive another 5-6 years as an ozeki and break records there held by the greatest of the ozeki. And maybe that's a good thing. Better to be remembered sometimes as a great ozeki than a poor to mediocre yokozuna.

[Dapeng 236]

Sometimes I think becoming Yokozuna isn't meant to be. The trick here is that once you get promoted and you start doing poorly, then all of your achievements prior to becoming Yokozuna is easily torn down. There were many ozeki in the past who strived and had better and prolonged careers because they didn't make Yokozuna. And this helped them to the end wind up in certain record books. For example, Kaio would have never broken Chiyonofuji's wins records had he made Yokozuna. On top of that both he and Chiyotaikai would have never set the ozeki longevity records had they made yokozuna. A favorite thing of my dad's, Konishiki would probably never had had the rivalry that amused sumo fans with Mainoumi had he made Yokozuna. And I think the same goes for those who DID end up making Yokozuna. Futahaguro, Onokuni, Mienoumi, Asahifuji, Takanosato, Wakanohana II and Wakanohana III all ended up having issues and while some of them did win yusho during their tenures, they all didn't last long at the rank.

I would rather see that Kisenosato wins the yusho first, then they start talking about another tsuna-run. I think there is no reason to hurry things up only to have it blow up in everybody's faces. For all we know Kisenosato could survive another 5-6 years as an ozeki and break records there held by the greatest of the ozeki. And maybe that's a good thing. Better to be remembered sometimes as a great ozeki than a poor to mediocre yokozuna.

What you said makes good sense. However, Yokozuna is not just a rank higher than ozeki, but the highest honor and even being considered as national hero (that's why Yokozuna can't be demoted). I believe every ozeki would rather be a short-lived Yokozuna than be a long-lived ozeki.

[RabidJohn 2,056]

Sometimes I think becoming Yokozuna isn't meant to be. ... Better to be remembered sometimes as a great ozeki than a poor to mediocre yokozuna.

After over 20 years of active dai-yokozuna on the banzuke, I think it's easy for people to forget that most yokozuna are not great. A large proportion are ozeki whose absolute peak was their successful tsuna run (and so far this applies to both Kakuryu and Harumafuji too). I think of them as being like the yokozuna of old; ozeki who've been granted a license to wear the rope and do their own dohyo-iri. I don't resent it. If Kise meets the YDC's requirements, then he's earned it - fair do. I don't expect him ever to be a dai-yokozuna, though, or even a particularly memorable one, other than maybe being the first Japanese to do it for a long time.

[Asashosakari 20,225]

For example, Kaio would have never broken Chiyonofuji's wins records had he made Yokozuna. On top of that both he and Chiyotaikai would have never set the ozeki longevity records had they made yokozuna.

They also lead the kadoban standings by a mile though; longevity is a double-edged sword.

IMHO, most sportspeople would probably prefer one day as #1 over ten years as #2.

Edited May 26, 2016 by Asashosakari

[SkinnySumo 32]

Maybe Kisenosato is a late bloomer like Chiyonofuji. You never know.

You mean the Chiyonofuji who was in low makuuchi / juryo at 28 years? While Kisenosato reached Makuuchi shortly after his 18th birthday and never looked back? Even if Kisenosato improves at this stage, a comparison with Chiyonofuji forbids itself, as Kisenosato in reality is in the age record lists for young age.

Mushashimaru then? He spent like 30-33 basho at ozeki. Became yokozuna at 28 when Ake and Taka were injured. Two 13-2 yusho in a row..