Natsu 2015 Basho Talk (spoiler alert!)

[rhyen 1,852]

Was it my imagination that Hakuho was trying to topple Kisenosato on top of Harumafuji?

[rzombie1988 159]

Was it my imagination that Hakuho was trying to topple Kisenosato on top of Harumafuji?

It's very much your imagination. You're really limited in your options when you are falling down...

Edited May 23, 2015 by rzombie1988

[littlebutts 14]

It's nice to see that even a yokozuna can get punished for not securing a belt grip during a yori charge. This makes for a very exciting last day of the tournament.

[Kirinoumi 14]

The last Makuuchi playoff I remember with more than two rikishi was in 1997 with Takanohana, Akebono, Musashimaru, and Kaio. You can see what happened here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpEXILDvJls

[Asashosakari 19,943]

Jakusotsu & Doitsuyama - Just out of curiosity, what's the status of your Tochinoshin steak bet? :-)

[Kintamayama 45,974]

Rijicho- "If Terunofuji gets his first yusho, he will be promoted to Ozeki."After a 13 win near yusho, a 12 win yusho will be enough. A playoff loss will not be good enough," said the rijicho.

Isegahama, Chief of judging department and Terunofuji's Oyakata: "A yusho will certainly make us think about it.."

Izutsu Oyakata, member of the judging department: "Last basho's 13 wins are excellent. 12 wins and a yusho will bring him very close to Ozeki.."

If Terunofuji gets the yusho in his 25th basho, he will be third (after Takahanada/Takanohana and Asashouryuu's 24) fastest all time.

If he gets promoted to Ozeki, he will be quicker than Akebono's 26 basho and will be third all time.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 19,943]

I'm glad to see my subliminal messaging to Kitanoumi still works.

[Onibushou 61]

fwiw- It looks like Hakuho (6-4) and Takanohana (5-5) are tied for most championship playoffs. If we do get the playoff, Hakuho would take sole first of yet another record. (admittedly not the most important one, but still...)

[Mongolith 51]

Its nice to see that they are considering Fuji's promotion with a yusho, since I thought his chances were dead with 3 losses. Its not like the current oz crop is very distinguished with nary a yusho between them, relatively weak promotions (Only Geeku got 33 wins), and all around 30 years old. Even the Bart/Oshu duo scrapped a couple despite being plagued with injuries. I do have to give Kudos to the ozeki's this basho as they blew open the yusho race with 2/3 upsetting Hak, but often they are non-factors.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Mongolith

[Doitsuyama 1,197]

Jakusotsu & Doitsuyama - Just out of curiosity, what's the status of your Tochinoshin steak bet? :-)

Good question, I was wondering about this myself just today... I'm (wishfully?) thinking any sanyaku appearance of Tochinoshin settles it for me, but maybe Jakusotsu has some objections which we'll have to discuss when I'm in Nürnberg. ;-)

[Highway 46]

What a crazy final day coming up indeed.

But I fully expect Hakuho and Terunofuji to both win and secure the playoff, with Hakuho likely taking that as well. It's still very hard to bet against him. But I would love it if they actually lost and we got a super playoff as well, I'll be rooting for Kise if so.

[Gurowake 4,123]

I really don't like the idea that they might promote Terunofuji based on how well Hakuho has (not) done. Is Terunofuji to be considered a better rikishi simply because Hakuho lost more matches this tournament than usual? Considering that the Isegahama joi schedule is much easier than any other heya's, along with the way he was beaten by Tokushoryu and Sadanoumi, I find it hard to believe that Terunofuji would be considered for promotion at all at this point. Why can't they just wait to see if he can manage 10 in Nagoya, when there would be absolutely no doubt that he would deserve it?

I don't have much faith in Aoiyama, but would greatly prefer him winning today it if it stops what I feel is a hasty promotion.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Gurowake

[krindel 684]

I really don't like the idea that they might promote Terunofuji based on how well Hakuho has (not) done. Is Terunofuji to be considered a better rikishi simply because Hakuho lost more matches this tournament than usual? Considering that the Isegahama joi schedule is much easier than any other heya's, along with the way he was beaten by Tokushoryu and Sadanoumi, I find it hard to believe that Terunofuji would be considered for promotion at all at this point. Why can't they just wait to see if he can manage 10 in Nagoya, when there would be absolutely no doubt that he would deserve it?

I don't have much faith in Aoiyama, but would greatly prefer him winning today it if it stops what I feel is a hasty promotion.

I agree completely that it seems to me too early to promote Terunofuji (lets not forget he only has two sanyaku basho and was good but not stunningly impressive before that). Has there ever been an Ozeki who only spent two basho in the named ranks? Not to mention that an 8-7 from M2 is not exactly a worthy start to an Ozeki run.

I also agree that it makes even less sense to say "We'll promote him if he wins and Hakuho loses, but not if he wins and then goes through Hakuho as well".

Hanging the promotion on the Yusho though makes absolute sense. The problem with the constantly decreasing standards for Ozeki-hood lately is that if he were to get a Yusho, he'll be the first Ozeki candidate with one in ages (and of course, none of the current Ozeki have one either). So he'll have 33 wins in the jo'i in 3 basho, and a Yusho. I can see how based on the criteria of the last few Ozeki promotions they might feel obligated to promote him.

Terunofuji definitely looks like the real deal, and he's been able to capitalize superbly on his Isegahama schedule and the many absences in the jo'i the last couple of basho. I don't find anything wrong with that, you fight the fights that are in front of you and are judged by those. I still find that given his inexperience, it would be premature to promote him with 33 wins starting from M2, Yusho or no Yusho. Of course, that's just me, and I am sure Kitanoumi has no intention of asking me at all. And the comment Kintamayama mentioned sets some very clear-cut conditions, so I guess their mind is made up on this.

Anyway, I for one, feel that the most probable scenario remains that he'll end up losing in a playoff with Hakuho, and the NSK will make him get 9 wins next basho to promote him.

[shimodahito 328]

If he wins this yusho.... then wins Nagoya yusho.......

[Asashosakari 19,943]

People are too hung up on both 33 and 3. Try 24 and 2 for an alternative view.

As for only two sanyaku appearances: Yutakayama. And there's also Kitanoumi's promotion that happened off K 8-7 -> S 10-5 -> S 14-1Y, which were his sanyaku appearances 2, 3 and 4. The first one was a 4-11.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Morty 1,517]

I really don't like the idea that they might promote Terunofuji based on how well Hakuho has (not) done. Is Terunofuji to be considered a better rikishi simply because Hakuho lost more matches this tournament than usual?

This assumes that the default position is that Hak will always win the yusho and if he doesn't it is because he lost it rather than someone else winning it. But it is sport, where theoretically anyone in the Makuuchi ranks could win (proven by Kyokutenho a couple of years ago) if they perform well enough. The tournament set-up is such that you can lose to an individual but have a better overall record than them and thus win the tournament. They can only judge Terunofuji on his performance, not on Hak's lack of. If Terunofuji wins the Yusho it will be because he was better than Hak over the course of the basho, not because Hak wasn't good enough to win it.

Personally I generally like the stringent criteria applied, but I also think it is fair enough to promote Terunofuji here if he wins the yusho while on an Ozeki run, particularly if in doing so he has to beat Hak in a play-off. That seems like a fairly stringent criteria to me.

[Gurowake 4,123]

I really don't like the idea that they might promote Terunofuji based on how well Hakuho has (not) done. Is Terunofuji to be considered a better rikishi simply because Hakuho lost more matches this tournament than usual?

This assumes that the default position is that Hak will always win the yusho and if he doesn't it is because he lost it rather than someone else winning it. But it is sport, where theoretically anyone in the Makuuchi ranks could win (proven by Kyokutenho a couple of years ago) if they perform well enough. The tournament set-up is such that you can lose to an individual but have a better overall record than them and thus win the tournament. They can only judge Terunofuji on his performance, not on Hak's lack of. If Terunofuji wins the Yusho it will be because he was better than Hak over the course of the basho, not because Hak wasn't good enough to win it.

Personally I generally like the stringent criteria applied, but I also think it is fair enough to promote Terunofuji here if he wins the yusho while on an Ozeki run, particularly if in doing so he has to beat Hak in a play-off. That seems like a fairly stringent criteria to me.

They said 14 were required before the tournament. Now they're saying 12 are good enough if he wins the Yusho. Why is he a better rikishi when he wins 12 and no one else wins 13 than if he wins 13 and someone else wins 14?

Edited May 24, 2015 by Gurowake

[Morty 1,517]

I really don't like the idea that they might promote Terunofuji based on how well Hakuho has (not) done. Is Terunofuji to be considered a better rikishi simply because Hakuho lost more matches this tournament than usual?

This assumes that the default position is that Hak will always win the yusho and if he doesn't it is because he lost it rather than someone else winning it. But it is sport, where theoretically anyone in the Makuuchi ranks could win (proven by Kyokutenho a couple of years ago) if they perform well enough. The tournament set-up is such that you can lose to an individual but have a better overall record than them and thus win the tournament. They can only judge Terunofuji on his performance, not on Hak's lack of. If Terunofuji wins the Yusho it will be because he was better than Hak over the course of the basho, not because Hak wasn't good enough to win it.

Personally I generally like the stringent criteria applied, but I also think it is fair enough to promote Terunofuji here if he wins the yusho while on an Ozeki run, particularly if in doing so he has to beat Hak in a play-off. That seems like a fairly stringent criteria to me.

They said 14 were required before the tournament. Now they're saying 12 are good enough if he wins the Yusho. Why is he a better rikishi when he wins 12 and no one else wins 13 than if he wins 13 and someone else wins 14?

I think the difference here is between number of wins vs the yusho. They are different criteria. I don't think the two are comparable and the latter is clearly more important. If it was just about number of wins then Kise would be a Yok by now as he has about the same winning average as Kak and HF. But to get to Yok you need to win a yusho. If (and it is still purely theoretical at this point:) Terunofuji manages to win the yusho then he proves himself the best rikishi in this particular basho, which is more important than number of wins. The powers that be clearly see a difference between simple win-loss ratios and the more esoteric criteria of winning the whole thing.

In my mind I'm thinking of it this way: in terms of importance the yusho adds about 50% to the number of wins when considering promotion. Wins without a yusho are considered as being much less important than wins with a yusho. Winning the ysuho makes any previous statements about number of wins required redundant because the yusho is much more important in the big scheme of things. Winning a yusho while on an ozeki run surely proves more worth at the rank than just getting 33 wins. Additionally, in the last basho he got the jun-yusho and two prizes which probably also count in some intangible way.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Morty

[ScreechingOwl 343]

If Terunofuji wins tonight and then wins the yusho (through a Hakuho loss in regulation or the playoff) he will have accumulated 33 wins over three basho, all of which he faced the sanyaku rikishi. However, he still wasn't in the sanyaku in the first basho.

The best argument for Terunofuji's promotion will then be: he won 33 bouts over three basho (all against the top rikishi), he won a yusho, and he's clearly already wrestling at ozeki strength (which he clearly is). On the other hand, what's the rush? I personally favour waiting one more basho and letting Terunofuji win at least 9 bouts in Nagoya. We all know it's going to happen, but that doesn't mean waiting one more basho isn't the better course.

[Gurowake 4,123]

I really don't like the idea that they might promote Terunofuji based on how well Hakuho has (not) done. Is Terunofuji to be considered a better rikishi simply because Hakuho lost more matches this tournament than usual?

This assumes that the default position is that Hak will always win the yusho and if he doesn't it is because he lost it rather than someone else winning it. But it is sport, where theoretically anyone in the Makuuchi ranks could win (proven by Kyokutenho a couple of years ago) if they perform well enough. The tournament set-up is such that you can lose to an individual but have a better overall record than them and thus win the tournament. They can only judge Terunofuji on his performance, not on Hak's lack of. If Terunofuji wins the Yusho it will be because he was better than Hak over the course of the basho, not because Hak wasn't good enough to win it.

Personally I generally like the stringent criteria applied, but I also think it is fair enough to promote Terunofuji here if he wins the yusho while on an Ozeki run, particularly if in doing so he has to beat Hak in a play-off. That seems like a fairly stringent criteria to me.

They said 14 were required before the tournament. Now they're saying 12 are good enough if he wins the Yusho. Why is he a better rikishi when he wins 12 and no one else wins 13 than if he wins 13 and someone else wins 14?

I think the difference here is between number of wins vs the yusho. They are different criteria. I don't think the two are comparable and the latter is clearly more important. If it was just about number of wins then Kise would be a Yok by now as he has about the same winning average as Kak and HF. But to get to Yok you need to win a yusho. If (and it is still purely theoretical at this point:) Terunofuji manages to win the yusho then he proves himself the best rikishi in this particular basho, which is more important than number of wins. The powers that be clearly see a difference between simple win-loss ratios and the more esoteric criteria of winning the whole thing.

In my mind I'm thinking of it this way: in terms of importance the yusho adds about 50% to the number of wins when considering promotion. Wins without a yusho are considered as being much less important than wins with a yusho. Winning the ysuho makes any previous statements about number of wins required redundant because the yusho is much more important in the big scheme of things. Winning a yusho while on an ozeki run surely proves more worth at the rank than just getting 33 wins. Additionally, in the last basho he got the jun-yusho and two prizes which probably also count in some intangible way.

Oh I have no doubt that to most of the populace, all they care about is who won the Yusho. But that's not what I care about, and am presenting a logical argument as to why it's a stupid thing to be considering. I guess the answer to my question is that it doesn't matter how strong of a rikishi he is, it matters what he has managed to win. I believe that is a poor way of deciding when to promote people precisely because it means the promotion depends on how other people do. I am fully cognizant of the idea that a Yusho means something more, but I think it's a load of crap. If Hakuho happened to beat two more of his opponents, we would not be having this discussion at all. Same thing for Harumfauji or Kisenosato. Why is what other rikishi do in other bouts at all relevant to Terunofuji's promotion? If the only reason is "because a Yusho! A yusho! A yusho!" then we can agree to disagree.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Gurowake

[Umigame 82]

Oh god, I am feeling a Hakuhō loss and Terunofuji win tomorrow… I hope not.

If Terunofuji wins then I see like 1% less effort from Harumafuji, since Harumafuji will definitely be out of the picture.

Don't forget Terunofuji and Harumafuji are from the same heya. If Harumafuji's yusho chance is gone, I think he will want to help his kohai win it.

[Gurowake 4,123]

If Terunofuji wins tonight and then wins the yusho (through a Hakuho loss in regulation or the playoff) he will have accumulated 33 wins over three basho, all of which he faced the sanyaku rikishi. However, he still wasn't in the sanyaku in the first basho.

The best argument for Terunofuji's promotion will then be: he won 33 bouts over three basho (all against the top rikishi), he won a yusho, and he's clearly already wrestling at ozeki strength (which he clearly is). On the other hand, what's the rush? I personally favour waiting one more basho and letting Terunofuji win at least 9 bouts in Nagoya. We all know it's going to happen, but that doesn't mean waiting one more basho isn't the better course.

Terunofuji may have 33 wins against the top opponents that he can face, but he also never has to face 3 of the other top rikishi, one of whom is a Yokozuna. That probably gives him at least one additional expected win per tournament, if not more.

And why are people saying that he only needs to win 9 in Nagoya? Would they actually promote anyone off a most recent 9-win basho? Especially given his schedule, that would mean a lot of stupid losses.

[Gurowake 4,123]

Oh god, I am feeling a Hakuhō loss and Terunofuji win tomorrow… I hope not.

If Terunofuji wins then I see like 1% less effort from Harumafuji, since Harumafuji will definitely be out of the picture.

Don't forget Terunofuji and Harumafuji are from the same heya. If Harumafuji's yusho chance is gone, I think he will want to help his kohai win it.

While they may theoretically be from the same heya, Terunofuji is not originally from Isegahama, and I recall he is in the last-resort slot in terms of being an attendant for Harumfuji's dohyo-iri. That says to me that they are not truly integrated and merely are forced to tolerate each other.

[Kintaro 7]

My brother Obana and I are enjoying this basho from the comfort of our Kabukicho hotel. We were able to get tickets to earlier days, but none for today. The Endo worship is certainly a reality. Ikioi, Ichinojoi, and Terunofuji are also big fan faves. Today should be an interesting day of sumo. Yamachan's for a late snack after sumo. Cheers!

[littlebutts 14]

Oh god, I am feeling a Hakuhō loss and Terunofuji win tomorrow… I hope not.

If Terunofuji wins then I see like 1% less effort from Harumafuji, since Harumafuji will definitely be out of the picture.

Don't forget Terunofuji and Harumafuji are from the same heya. If Harumafuji's yusho chance is gone, I think he will want to help his kohai win it.

While they may theoretically be from the same heya, Terunofuji is not originally from Isegahama, and I recall he is in the last-resort slot in terms of being an attendant for Harumfuji's dohyo-iri. That says to me that they are not truly integrated and merely are forced to tolerate each other.

I'm kind of getting the impression that Harumafuji, Aminishiki, etc from Isegahama are doing a bit more than just "tolerat[ing] each other". For example, last tournamentTerunofuji was wearing Aminishiki's kimono for good luck while waiting for a potential playoff against Hakuho and before this tournament it seemed to me that Terunofuji's more senior stablemates were putting a lot of time and effort into helping Terunofuji train. Sometimes I like to imagine what Ichinojo would look like with similar training efforts, considering both youngsters are built like oak trees.