Morty 1,495 Posted May 20, 2015 Damn Aoi just railroaded my boy Geeku. Three wins will be tough now. That didn't look like Aoiyama indeed. Giku is nearly kadoban: He has Hakuho, Harumafuji and Kisenosato left on the last three days and has to beat two of them. The Geek is one of my three favourites but I can see retirement coming over the horizon for him. He's not the wrestler he was even 12 months ago. Something tells me he won't do a Wakanosato and carry on until he is no longer capable but will pull the pin once he loses that Ozeki rank 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kuroimori 1,634 Posted May 20, 2015 So given Endo's preferred banzuke treatment after Haru, he should already be safe after his 3rd win, right? If he should go kyujo now it should land him at the M13 ranks for Nagoya.... *ironic smirk* Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,050 Posted May 20, 2015 I'll be the first to admit I know very little about bout scheduling. Still, I'd really appreciate it if someone could explain to me why the 7-2 Takayasu and the 8-1 yusho leader Kaisei were paired with Kyokushuho + Amuru and Amuru + Takanoiwa respectively. In both cases, it was the lowest ranked opponents they faced so far. I know they tend to give high flying maegashira a chance at KK before throwing them to the wolves, but couldn't they just make them earn their KK against someone ranked a bit higher than them, instead of a lot lower? Scheduling is hard. You have to manage to get everyone to fight an opponent on one day that they haven't fought before, and that's often hard enough as you get down to the end of the basho. When you throw in the desire to match people with similar records that aren't too far apart in rank, you end up having to make compromises. It's especially difficult to find appropriate matches for those at the bottom of the division, and it means that those in the M10-M11 area will face a larger share of low-ranked opponents than if their ranks were spread evenly. You can expect someone ranked in the double digits to fight almost everyone ranked below them, and those at M8 and M9 to face a smattering of M15 and M16s simply because there aren't any other good options. They bring up multiple people from Juryo near the end of the tournament, but that still isn't enough. So don't think of this as Kaisei getting an easy match, but them stretching to find a good set of matches overall. You might ask why they don't force Kaisei into a higher ranked opponent to start, and build the schedule around that. Well, there are plenty of days left in the tournament, and they're lucky to have Hakuho who is quite likely to win the rest of his matches or maybe lose only one. They only see a need to get Kaisei one more loss to protect against him winning outright, and they have Goeido and Terunofuji available to fight whoever on Days 13 and 14 (Terunofuji one of those two, Goeido on both) as well as the Komusubi or top-ranked Maegashira to put him against on Day 15 if he still is in contention. If he manages to win *all* those matches and Hakuho loses another match, in some sense he has performed the best at the tournament even if he didn't face as many of the top ranked guys, as he would have shown he'd be able to put up wins against at least some of them. I highly suspect that Kaisei will face either Goeido or Terunofuji on Day 13, the other on Day 14 if he beats Aoiyama, and probably Ichinojo on Day 15 if he wins on day 13. If Hakuho loses a match, and especially if Kisenosato beats Hakuho and hasn't lost another match, Kaisei might face the previously mentioned guys even with a loss. They also have to worry slightly about Takayasu, but he's already facing Kotoshogiku, can face Goeido the day he's not facing Kaisei (which makes me expect they do Goeido-Kaisei Day 13, Terunofuji-Myogiryu day 13 so Terunofuji can face Kaisei Day 14 and Goeido face Takayasu day 14, all if necessary), and can be put against 2 Komusubi and/or high-ranked Maegashira easily enough. So there's clearly plenty of opportunity for Kaisei to face a challenging set of opponents that would make him really work for the Yusho, and they want to be fair and give him the opponents he would expect to face as an M11 as long as it's not necessary that he be given those challenges. I also won't be surprised if I'm completely wrong, because this is the Kyokai we're talking about. 7 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,050 Posted May 20, 2015 I'm responding to the two parts of the same post separately that were done in order to avoid a double post. OMG, how scandalous. The database is currently inaccessible so I don't know when it occurred nor more details of Shotenro's career, but I'd think Hakuho-Shotenro was a much bigger upset.Shotenro was M2e at that time. True, but it was Hakuho, not Harumafuji and Shotenro (who was in his career high rank and his first and only time in the jo'i) ended up that basho at 2-13 (so basically he lost to more or less everyone but Hak). Numbers aside, I do remember that one as "truly shocking" as well. This is exactly what I meant. Shotenro did awful at that tournament and never got anywhere close to that level again, and Hakuho had already eclipsed Asashoryu as clearly the better of the two. Harumafuji on the other hand gives up multiple kinboshi every tournament, and Gagamaru has previous experience in the joi. Maybe it was at the time not as much of a shock because Hakuho had yet to have his 60+ win streak, Shotenro was still on the way up just having gone 11-4 in his 3rd makuuchi tournament which were preceded by 2 Juryo Yushos, and might be expected to have lost all his previous matches against the Ozeki and the like while maybe being to pull off a win against one of them, while Gagamaru elevatored back to Juryo after making Komusubi and we know he's not going to stick around the top ranks. So at a time when I was unable to determine everything I just mentioned about Shotenro's career and just remembering that he beat Hakuho while doing terribly otherwise and now being stuck in Juryo, it really stood out as a much larger upset; I admit that maybe it wasn't as big of a deal the day it happened. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,969 Posted May 20, 2015 You never know what kind of favour Hakuho owed to Shotenro... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kuroimori 1,634 Posted May 20, 2015 You never know what kind of favour Hakuho owed to Shotenro... ...or maybe Shotenro just ran outta cash and Hakuho kindly offered to donate this big stack of expensive kensho envelopes..? ;-) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kumoryu 88 Posted May 20, 2015 Kakuryuu is doing just fine as a Yokozuna. Most of you can't remember how well yokozunae do when the field is more even and not when there is a totally dominant one. Except for 9 wins in his first bashos as a yokozuna, he has won 11,11,12 and 10 before getting injured. Those are average (before the phenom) records-compare these to other Yokozunae and it's pretty good. I did try that comparison. Kakuryu is new, so we've just got one year as a Yokozuna. How does that compare to the first year of other Yokozuna? Kakuryu only once achieved 12 or more wins during that year -- which I think is pretty much the marker for contending for yusho. Harumafuji also did it just once in his first six basho as Yokozuna. If I've counted right, of the 20 previous Yokozuna (#50 - #69) only one other -- Kotozakura -- only once reached 12 wins in his first year. For those 20 previous, the average is 3.4 times during the first year. However you slice and dice it, it looks the same: split those 20 Yokozuna into an older half and a more recent half, the averages are 3.5 times and 3.3 times respectively. Take out all the Yokozuna with more than ten yusho, the average for the rest is 2.8 times. Promoted in the 1970s: 3.3 times; in the 1980s: 3.0 times; in the 1990s: 3.7 times. Exactly. When the field is even, they got more wins. I figure at present with the field uneven, they each get an almost certain one more loss, which in an uneven field, would make for at least 1 or two more 12 win bashos. Does that make sense? I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, especially in view of all the great stuff you do with the videos and everything. But, you are now arguing the opposite of what you argued in the thing I quoted from you. There, you said his records were average or even pretty good for a Yokozuna. Now you are effectively saying "of course his records aren't as good as average, because there's an uneven field." So I think my point is still valid: his records are not equal to or better than average, as you had asserted. We can discuss the reasons for that -- some people are telling me it's because he isn't trying, he's giving away bouts as part of a coordinated stitch up, and if he only put all his effort into it he'd be doing better; you, on the other hand, are saying we have to lower the barrier because he's up against an all-time-great. But whatever the reason, the fact is his figures are worse than average, where you had said they were equal or better than average. And, by the way, I don't fall into the field of people who "can't remember how well yokozunae do when the field is more even" as you suggest. My earliest sumo fandom was for Kotokaze, which would have been in about 1983 I think. So I've seen a few yokozunae come and go. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,319 Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) Incidentally, with yesterday's kinboshi Gagamaru has achieved something that doesn't happen all that often, namely a kinboshi by a former sanyaku who had dropped to juryo in between. As far as I can see he's the fourth such rikishi since 1989: Daizen - most recent sanyaku 1994.03, lots of juryo appearances between 1995.05 and 2001.03, kinboshi 2001.11 Tochinonada - most recent sanyaku 2004.11, juryo 2006.01, kinboshi 2008.07 Tochinoshin - most recent sanyaku 2012.09, juryo and lower 2013.09-2014.09, kinboshi 2015.03 Gagamaru - most recent sanyaku 2012.03, juryo 2014.09-2015.01, kinboshi 2015.05 In addition there's Toyonoshima with a somewhat different pattern: most recent sanyaku 2010.03, juryo 2010.09 (gambling suspension), sanyaku again 2011.05 and afterwards, kinboshi 2013.03 Edited May 20, 2015 by Asashosakari 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Highway 46 Posted May 20, 2015 Really liked seeing my man Aoiyama shove out the ozeki with such ease today, that's what he can do at his best - strength and weight that's gonna be tough for anyone. Trouble is, he has almost no resiliency. He takes a wrong step, momentum goes against him, and you can be pretty sure it's all over. It's all or nothing with Aoi. It is going to be pretty interesting tomorrow vs Kaisei, they're not too different from each other....but would love to see him get his kk. Terunofuji has done so well recently you actually think he had a solid chance against Hakuho. But it was not meant to be, I think the champion will be retaining the cup this basho. Unless Kise has other plans, but he just never displays that championship-winning mentality at the end. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Highway 46 Posted May 20, 2015 Question about stables, which is one area I've never really read much about....is there any rule to how often stable-mates can face off against each other? As in, I think I heard they generally seek to avoid putting stable-mates against each other, but Aoi wrestles Takyasi pretty much every baso, and used to go up against Kise when he was ranked higher up... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,319 Posted May 20, 2015 Question about stables, which is one area I've never really read much about....is there any rule to how often stable-mates can face off against each other? As in, I think I heard they generally seek to avoid putting stable-mates against each other, but Aoi wrestles Takyasi pretty much every baso, and used to go up against Kise when he was ranked higher up...Aoiyama isn't in the same stable as Kisenosato and Takayasu; the Tagonoura-beya that Aoiyama was a member of closed down a few years ago and he's in Kasugano-beya today. The Tagonoura-beya with Kise and Takayasu is a completely different entity that just has the same name. Members of the same stable are never paired up, except in a yusho playoff. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,969 Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) Question about stables, which is one area I've never really read much about....is there any rule to how often stable-mates can face off against each other? As in, I think I heard they generally seek to avoid putting stable-mates against each other, but Aoi wrestles Takyasi pretty much every baso, and used to go up against Kise when he was ranked higher up...Takayasu and Kisenosato are from the same heya, but Aoiyama is not. Rikishi from the same stable never meet during regular bouts, only in yusho playoffs. Edit: Hehe, I knew Asashosakari would beat me B-) Edited May 20, 2015 by Jakusotsu Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Highway 46 Posted May 20, 2015 Question about stables, which is one area I've never really read much about....is there any rule to how often stable-mates can face off against each other? As in, I think I heard they generally seek to avoid putting stable-mates against each other, but Aoi wrestles Takyasi pretty much every baso, and used to go up against Kise when he was ranked higher up...Aoiyama isn't in the same stable as Kisenosato and Takayasu; the Tagonoura-beya that Aoiyama was a member of closed down a few years ago and he's in Kasugano-beya today. The Tagonoura-beya with Kise and Takayasu is a completely different entity that just has the same name.Members of the same stable are never paired up, except in a yusho playoff. Ah, I see....I suppose the wikipedia info is out of date then: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_sumo_wrestlers Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dingo 1,263 Posted May 20, 2015 Kakuryuu is doing just fine as a Yokozuna. Most of you can't remember how well yokozunae do when the field is more even and not when there is a totally dominant one. Except for 9 wins in his first bashos as a yokozuna, he has won 11,11,12 and 10 before getting injured. Those are average (before the phenom) records-compare these to other Yokozunae and it's pretty good. I did try that comparison. Kakuryu is new, so we've just got one year as a Yokozuna. How does that compare to the first year of other Yokozuna? Kakuryu only once achieved 12 or more wins during that year -- which I think is pretty much the marker for contending for yusho. Harumafuji also did it just once in his first six basho as Yokozuna. If I've counted right, of the 20 previous Yokozuna (#50 - #69) only one other -- Kotozakura -- only once reached 12 wins in his first year. For those 20 previous, the average is 3.4 times during the first year. However you slice and dice it, it looks the same: split those 20 Yokozuna into an older half and a more recent half, the averages are 3.5 times and 3.3 times respectively. Take out all the Yokozuna with more than ten yusho, the average for the rest is 2.8 times. Promoted in the 1970s: 3.3 times; in the 1980s: 3.0 times; in the 1990s: 3.7 times. Exactly. When the field is even, they got more wins. I figure at present with the field uneven, they each get an almost certain one more loss, which in an uneven field, would make for at least 1 or two more 12 win bashos. Does that make sense? I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, especially in view of all the great stuff you do with the videos and everything. But, you are now arguing the opposite of what you argued in the thing I quoted from you. There, you said his records were average or even pretty good for a Yokozuna. Now you are effectively saying "of course his records aren't as good as average, because there's an uneven field." So I think my point is still valid: his records are not equal to or better than average, as you had asserted. We can discuss the reasons for that -- some people are telling me it's because he isn't trying, he's giving away bouts as part of a coordinated stitch up, and if he only put all his effort into it he'd be doing better; you, on the other hand, are saying we have to lower the barrier because he's up against an all-time-great. But whatever the reason, the fact is his figures are worse than average, where you had said they were equal or better than average. And, by the way, I don't fall into the field of people who "can't remember how well yokozunae do when the field is more even" as you suggest. My earliest sumo fandom was for Kotokaze, which would have been in about 1983 I think. So I've seen a few yokozunae come and go. Another point to make here is that both Harumafuji and Kakuryu showed their capability to even out the playing field during their yokozuna runs and yushos. So that still begs the question why they don't do it now? (ok, injuries & stuff but still) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kintamayama 45,109 Posted May 20, 2015 I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, especially in view of all the great stuff you do with the videos and everything. But, you are now arguing the opposite of what you argued in the thing I quoted from you. There, you said his records were average or even pretty good for a Yokozuna. Now you are effectively saying "of course his records aren't as good as average, because there's an uneven field." So I think my point is still valid: his records are not equal to or better than average, as you had asserted. We can discuss the reasons for that -- some people are telling me it's because he isn't trying, he's giving away bouts as part of a coordinated stitch up, and if he only put all his effort into it he'd be doing better; you, on the other hand, are saying we have to lower the barrier because he's up against an all-time-great. But whatever the reason, the fact is his figures are worse than average, where you had said they were equal or better than average. And, by the way, I don't fall into the field of people who "can't remember how well yokozunae do when the field is more even" as you suggest. My earliest sumo fandom was for Kotokaze, which would have been in about 1983 I think. So I've seen a few yokozunae come and go. Well, nobody is picking any fights. I can't argue with your numbers re one year as a Yokozuna. I am saying his records are average, under the circumstances. I guess I wasn't thinking of one year as a career-I just remember the many weak Yokozuna we used to have, some of them regularly running 10 wins at some point in their career. I don't think Kakuryuu falls into the category of the likes of Wakanohana, Futahaguro and Oonokuni, for example. I don't think he is an embarrassment to his rank, as some say. We'll have to see how he does in the future. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andreas21 184 Posted May 20, 2015 Scheduling is hard. Especially because it must be set up before the bouts of the previous day. Good to have Sumo traditions live on, but this tradition is simply ridiculous. It is a miracle that the Torikumi so often makes sense. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tenshinhan 1,605 Posted May 20, 2015 The Tagonoura-beya with Kise and Takayasu is a completely different entity that just has the same name. I am shocked that Kise is not in Kise-beya ;-) Ah, I see....I suppose the wikipedia info is out of date then: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_sumo_wrestlers Other mistakes are: Kyokutenho and Kyokushuho are now in Tomozuna-beya (together with Kaisei) as Ōshima-beya was closed. And Matsugane-beya (Shohozan) was renamed as Nishonoseki-beya. The rest seems correct. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,050 Posted May 20, 2015 Ah, I see....I suppose the wikipedia info is out of date then: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_sumo_wrestlers Other mistakes are: Kyokutenho and Kyokushuho are now in Tomozuna-beya (together with Kaisei) as Ōshima-beya was closed. And Matsugane-beya (Shohozan) was renamed as Nishonoseki-beya. The rest seems correct. Feel free to correct anything you see that's wrong on Wikipedia. I have done it plenty of times. I think there are some people who do it regularly, but there's a lot of little things on rarely-viewed pages that can easily get out of date. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ack! 465 Posted May 21, 2015 (edited) Incidentally, with yesterday's kinboshi Gagamaru has achieved something that doesn't happen all that often, namely a kinboshi by a former sanyaku who had dropped to juryo in between. To put it in country music terms: He ain't as good as he once was, but he's as good once as he ever was. (Laughing...) Edit: Just realized it's entirely possible that no one this forum may get that joke. :-/ Edited May 21, 2015 by Ack! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,050 Posted May 21, 2015 Well, I was almost right. Instead of the Sekiwake matchup day 13, they're having the Komusubi matchup then, and doing Goeido-Kaisei and Takayasu-Terunofuji. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,969 Posted May 21, 2015 Well, I was almost right. Instead of the Sekiwake matchup day 13, they're having the Komusubi matchup then, and doing Goeido-Kaisei and Takayasu-Terunofuji.You should start playing GKA again B-) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Manekineko 200 Posted May 21, 2015 I guess what I am trying to convey is that in my (admittedly unpracticed) eye Kaisei has been allowed to get to double digit wins with what seems like a relatively light schedule. Not to mention that while Takayasu is going all the way up to a desperate Ozeki for tomorrow, Kaisei is going against Aoiyama. But, as you say, I am sure there are good reasons behind all that.Although Gurowake has already answered this in much better way than I ever could, I'll just add that it's my impression that lower-ranked rikishi, especially those that used to be higher up on the banzuke, are "allowed" to get to (or near) double-digit wins before being matched up with really tough oponents (usually san'yaku). Disclaimer: no actual research has gone in the above statement. Like I said, it's my impression, from years of not very analytically watching sumo. Disclaimer2: My sumo watching has been increasingly erratic in this decade, so above impression may very well be dated. Disclaimer3: I'm fond of disclaimers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Taigiin khuu 42 Posted May 21, 2015 Is there more emotion being shown on and off the dohyo this basho (and recently)? I see both clear joy and obvious disappointment during the live feeds. Gagamaru was just 'cursing' at himself all the way down the tunnel after letting Takarafuji get out with a win. Tochinoshin did a nice "Tokushoryu skip" after dispatching Toyonoshima. This honest and raw (obviously not over the top) emotion is nice to see. Could it be part of the current surge in popularity? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krindel 671 Posted May 21, 2015 Endo managed those 4 wins after all, didn't he? I have to admit to being very surprised that he did. Even if some people went easy on him (at least in the sense of not going for the kill taking advantage on his weak knee), its still impressive. Just hope he didn't do even more damage to it, of course. Cause if he did, 4 wins are not worth the price. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hakuyobaku 33 Posted May 21, 2015 I just noticed that Hakuho has notched up 43 wins against Kotoshogiku. Wow. That must be an all time record? (anyone checked this one?) It's 7+ years of straight ass-whooping. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites