Latest stock exchange news - kabu, Oyakata transfers, etc.

[Bunbukuchagama 922]

1 hour ago, Tochinofuji said:

I may be wrong in my understanding, but I don't see a burning desire to remain in that world  as undermining any love for sumo - rather it may well be evidence of it. 

There might be a desire to stay in ozumo world that I wouldn't try to deny - which is still very different from loving to break one's own neck on the dohyo. 

[Koorifuu 1,099]

5 hours ago, Tochinofuji said:

My understanding was that he needed another basho as a sekitori to be eligible, and so had always assumed he was motivated by the desire to ultimately obtain a kabu and remain within the Association.

Whilst very possible, those rules are not absolute IIRC. They could always bend it slightly, if they wanted to.

Although, he looked like he was about to burst into tears when his MK was sealed. I thought intai was coming but that could very well be related to kabu shenanigans instead.

Edited June 4 by Koorifuu

[Tochinofuji 404]

2 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Whilst very possible, those rules are not absolute IIRC. They could always bend it slightly, if they wanted to.

Although, he looked like he was about to burst into tears when his MK was sealed. I thought intai was coming but that could very well be related to kabu shenanigans instead.

My recollection is they have some express discretion to allow someone short of the count to obtain kabu. And given Enho's popularity, you'd think it would be a good idea. But on the other hand, his ties to Hakuho may mean they're less inclined to exercise that discretion. Who knows.

One wonders if along with MK and what it meant he was also aware what was going on with Hakuho/Magaki/Miyagino/Soon-to-be-Hakuho-again. 

[Dairenzu 8]

Been digging as deeply as I can, and this current Kabu Crunch seems pretty extreme, although I don't know how the numbers have played out historically. But having read this entire thread (all the way back to 2007!) it feels like the strain keeps growing with the healthier post-rikishi oyakata life, the end of COVID restrictions and betting crackdowns limiting malfeasance retirements, and waiting for the sanyo extension system to catch up.

By my count, there are currently 39 kabu-eligible rikishi, and we only have one vacant and one new guaranteed full retirement over the next two years (not counting loaned Kabu). Of those 39 guys, I'd subjectively say about 20 seem on their last legs or sufficiently old that two years would be a long time and one injury or drop in form away from intai (and I would say only 3 seem like they wouldn't likely be close to retirement state in five years, when the next sort of large tranche of available kabu are guaranteed). The Miyagino retirement didn't even really help, except I guess keeping Asahifuji from snaffling up one of the few titles that might be able to be wrestled away early.

The more marginal resume guys seem pretty screwed, as do all of the current kabu borrowers. Like even if Enho got to 30 sekitori basho, his resume would be extremely hard to justify, no matter how popular he is. I know there are many, many unknowns in what factors will go into how those few openings will be doled out ad I have no idea which current rikishi want to stay in the company. And, obviously, this system is always full of surprises and intrigue.

In the short term, I'd think all the current ex-Ozeki's who are nearing retirement age/performance will need to take 3-year Toshiyori status to help the crunch a bit and loanees like Shotenro and Akiseyama should be getting ready for post-sumo life. I'm definitely also very curious how much the NSK will try to keep titles in current ichimon, or if it will be a free for all. And I was struck by Tochinoshin bringing up the need for more older oyakata to retire and make space for younger guys, and wonder how prevalent that view is and if the NSK would try to push some of the less productive middle-aged guys out early. I feel like this thread (and forum) isn't big on whole-cloth speculating, so I'll keep all my conspiracy theories to myself!

 

Edited June 7 by Dairenzu

[Raishu 215]

9 hours ago, Dairenzu said:

Been digging as deeply as I can, and this current Kabu Crunch seems pretty extreme, although I don't know how the numbers have played out historically. But having read this entire thread (all the way back to 2007!) it feels like the strain keeps growing with the healthier post-rikishi oyakata life, the end of COVID restrictions and betting crackdowns limiting malfeasance retirements, and waiting for the sanyo extension system to catch up.

By my count, there are currently 39 kabu-eligible rikishi, and we only have one vacant and one new guaranteed full retirement over the next two years (not counting loaned Kabu). Of those 39 guys, I'd subjectively say about 20 seem on their last legs or sufficiently old that two years would be a long time and one injury or drop in form away from intai (and I would say only 3 seem like they wouldn't likely be close to retirement state in five years, when the next sort of large tranche of available kabu are guaranteed). The Miyagino retirement didn't even really help, except I guess keeping Asahifuji from snaffling up one of the few titles that might be able to be wrestled away early.

The more marginal resume guys seem pretty screwed, as do all of the current kabu borrowers. Like even if Enho got to 30 sekitori basho, his resume would be extremely hard to justify, no matter how popular he is. I know there are many, many unknowns in what factors will go into how those few openings will be doled out ad I have no idea which current rikishi want to stay in the company. And, obviously, this system is always full of surprises and intrigue.

In the short term, I'd think all the current ex-Ozeki's who are nearing retirement age/performance will need to take 3-year Toshiyori status to help the crunch a bit and loanees like Shotenro and Akiseyama should be getting ready for post-sumo life. I'm definitely also very curious how much the NSK will try to keep titles in current ichimon, or if it will be a free for all. And I was struck by Tochinoshin bringing up the need for more older oyakata to retire and make space for younger guys, and wonder how prevalent that view is and if the NSK would try to push some of the less productive middle-aged guys out early. I feel like this thread (and forum) isn't big on whole-cloth speculating, so I'll keep all my conspiracy theories to myself!

 

The implementation of the sanyo-role has definitely contributed to the current crunch and what is boiling up at the moment was foreseeable long time ago (since you have read the entire thread, you have probably noticed that me and some other members have predicted this scenario a few years back already).

With that many eligible rikishi, the NSK really needs to pay close attention to who they want to have in the association and what qualifications they prefer to keep in the business (decorated rikishi, the ones with presumably good coaching skills or the ones that bring a good business sense/ education into operations? (guess that might especially apply to the university graduates)). Of course, preferably, a new oyakata embraces all these competences combined.

As you pointed out correctly, most or even all current loanees need to be prepared to exit the NSK sooner or later, since at least from their career records they can be replaced by more successful sekitori rather easily. Guys like Enho might have the benefit of being Hakuho's protégé, but I always found it hard to believe, that the NSK would keep him in the association when they can choose from dozens of other eligibles. 

Regarding the current ex-Ozekis, I might differ here. Takayasu seems to me like a good fit for the soon-to-be vacated Minezaki share and Shodai has the benefit, that several sanyo are currently employed within his ichimon. Depending on how long he can continue in the paid ranks, he might succeed one of the consultants (picking up the name) right away in a few years.

Generally, I dont think the NSK will change their policies anytime soon. The older oyakata won't resign out of good will to bring in younger blood into their hierarchy, since it is their paid job in the end. The fact that they installed the consultant role (employment with reduced salary) until the age of 70 appeared to me as a move to reduce salary costs, but that's just my personal impression. End of the story: Let us not expect that anything will change regarding the oyakata system in the near (and probably distant) future.

 

[Asashosakari 20,131]

The cost reduction argument doesn't really do much for me; 5 years of a veteran oyakata's salary reduced to 70% (iin rank before age 65) isn't significantly less than 5 years of an entry-level oyakata's (toshiyori/shunin rank) at 100%. Furthermore, since instituting the sanyo system they've also accelerated the speed at which new oyakata advance to the more costly iin rank; it used to take about 8 years, nowadays it's more like 4 to 5. That's an odd combination of changes to make if cost-cutting had been the mood of the day.  

In addition, let's not forget that the sanyo system was created at a time when they genuinely had a manpower shortage and many kabu went unused. Ultimately, the idea behind the system may have been that rikishi generally stay active for longer than they used to; an average future oyakata retiring at 30 and then staying to 65 leads to the same turnover rate as retiring at 35 and staying to 70. It just might have been too much to extend all the way to age 70 in one go.

I'd also argue that at least part of the shortage of newly kabu-eligible rikishi about 10 years ago was because of the massive recruiting of foreign rikishi 10-15 years earlier, whose success "took away" sekitori opportunities from Japanese rikishi in the 2000s decade. Since then the pendulum has swung back towards lower foreign representation again, and in addition it has become more fashionable for even foreign rikishi with relatively middling achievements to take citizenship and become oyakata themselves, so the rate of rikishi becoming kabu-eligible is now quite a bit higher again, perhaps much higher than was anticipated in 2014.

[Yarimotsu 628]

I thought it was pretty cut-and-dried that the whole Sanyo thing came about due to the government bailout situation, where one of the government's goals was to increase employment of the elderly. Didn't it basically get mandated through that without much say from the kyokai at all?

[Bunbukuchagama 922]

20 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

I thought it was pretty cut-and-dried that the whole Sanyo thing came about due to the government bailout situation, where one of the government's goals was to increase employment of the elderly. Didn't it basically get mandated through that without much say from the kyokai at all?

The sanyo system seems too peculiar to pass for something that could be forced upon the Kyokai by the government. Also, I doubt the government would care enough about a dozen oyakata getting to work for another 5 years, the scale is just too tiny. 

[Akinomaki 41,570]

Isegahama-beya channel with the interview of the new and old Isegahama for the succession of the heya

made when they still were Isegahama and Terunofuji

Edited June 9 by Akinomaki

[Dairenzu 8]

I've already had a change of heart about the Kabu situation. While there is definitely a crunch, I don't feel confident anymore that there is a crisis or that there are changing factors exacerbating the crunch. In delving again into the recent history of changes, its hard to identify a cause for why the distribution has become so lopsided (for example nearly half of the currently held Kabu are held by wrestlers born in the years 1970-1976 or 1984-1986). It seems like there should be a normal distribution, skewed slightly to younger Oyakata, but it is reasonable that over a long period of time, you would start to see clusters through randomly distributed events and more or less successful birth year cohorts. Perhaps those will revert to closer to a mean over time on their own.

The age 70 extensionshould itself normalize, and only have the impact of stretching out the birth years to perhaps eventually smooth out some of those peaks and valleys. I found @Asashosakari theory that the sanyo system was implemented because of the opposite issue of what exists now to be convincing, and to take it another logical step forward to believe that the NSK prefer a structure that is more challenging to access than this period where so many Oyakata have modest makuuchi achievements. As discussed here a lot, creating a higher barrier for entry isn't necessarily the optimal way to bring in the best trainers, mentors, administrators, recruiters, real estate facilitators, meal planners etc - but I do think having more incentive for all sekitori to reach milestones and build their resume does improve the integrity of the competition.

And the 'crisis' is pretty limited - by my sketch out of long-term Kabu movement, no sanyaku guy would be denied a Kabu, and there will be a couple of spaces for non-sanyaku. The tightness may make the timing difficult, but its hardly new for guys to hang on longer than they should or leave a little early, and to buy sanyo out of their dotage.

It would feel unfair for someone like Kagayaki, who looks really washed to me and I have as the top guy left out, not getting a title when his resume is much better than a lot of the current Oyakata. If he had been born 15 years earlier or later, it might have been easy for him - but I think that sort of fatalism is not really seen as a problem needing fixing? 

Thinking again about Enho in light of Isegamaha's comments, and wondering if the NSK will allow or prevent succession to maintain a Kabu beya line at the expense of more successful guys. Like if Tamanoi is able to get Fujiazuma a title since they have no other prospects at the moment, or the move of all those sanyo to Oitekaze means a big push to get as many as they can of their 7 current 30+ guys who are eligible. If so, that will of course threaten guys up the chain, with Chiyoshoma being the most vulnerable by my reckoning. Of course, its just as likely unexpected slots will open so maybe it won't be as hard as it seems now. Isegehama did mention younger guys too getting Miyagino and its way easier to see how to make it happen for Hakuoho than it would be for Enho. Ichiyamamoto and Churanoumi seem in a lot of danger of missing out too, especially with Oshoma and Kinbozan now probably passing them by in peak rank.

Very curious to see what happens with the next domino (after whatever happens to Otake-beya, which I feel like won't lead to any Kabu shenanigans for a bit). @Raishu I've got a different guess for Minezaki, I have it going to Tamawashi. I just don't see how he can pass this opportunity by even if he is still doing well enough at the moment. Five more healthy basho would give him one at least one ironman record I believe (consecutive makuuchi bouts). If Takayasu is determined to hang it up next year and doesn't want to have the uncertainty of the 3-year Toshoyori, that will be interesting data point to see how these might be distributed going forward, if we get much information about how it goes down.

 

 

 

[Asashosakari 20,131]

Pulling some recent updates together:

On 02/06/2025 at 10:42, Akinomaki said:

Result of the special rijikai today: Hakuho(Miyagino) retires from the NSK as of June 9th, Isegahama-oyakata becomes Miyagino and Terunofuji-oyakata Isegahama and the shisho of the heya http://www.daily.co.jp/general/2025/06/02/0019058040.shtml

This has finally been reflected on the duties list today; the simple oyakata overview already had it by the 9th (always strange when the two pages diverge). But the page date has immediately become June 16 courtesy of this follow-up move: 

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

And now we'll get Takakeisho at the press club, replacing Miyagino/Hakuho, just the right man to meet the press https://www.sankei.com/article/20250616-4C22NOPHUBLXVMH4ULQDQF73ZQ/

Hakuho had been the only oyakata assigned there since Otowayama joined the shimpan department in February, so they had to bring in a replacement.

No other changes since the May 15 updates.

Edited June 16 by Asashosakari

[Akinomaki 41,570]

The slight cost reduction for the switch to sanyo may disappear as well, semi-tabloid Real life reports the plan to extend the retirement age to 70, so that Hakkaku can stay rijicho several more terms. 

https://npn.co.jp/article/detail/200037435

 

[Asashosakari 20,131]

 What a nonsense article.

[Steve 11]

Agreed

[RabidJohn 2,010]

@Akinomaki Wow, the crap you trawl through on our behalf! Thank you.

Yes, the article is BS, but retirement ages are going up because we're living too long: now 68 in the UK and it will go up again.

[ViscountessNivlac 35]

12 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Yes, the article is BS, but retirement ages are going up because we're living too long: now 68 in the UK and it will go up again.

When it's a mandatory retirement age the intent and the calculus is slightly different, though. People living too long is the reason you set it low.

[rhyen 1,856]

On 18/06/2025 at 13:34, Akinomaki said:

The slight cost reduction for the switch to sanyo may disappear as well, semi-tabloid Real life reports the plan to extend the retirement age to 70, so that Hakkaku can stay rijicho several more terms. 

https://npn.co.jp/article/detail/200037435

 

So nicely timed to exclude Asahifuji who has become Sanyo?

[Asashosakari 20,131]

On 18/06/2025 at 07:34, Akinomaki said:

The slight cost reduction for the switch to sanyo may disappear as well, semi-tabloid Real life reports the plan to extend the retirement age to 70, so that Hakkaku can stay rijicho several more terms. 

https://npn.co.jp/article/detail/200037435

As could have been suspected from the fact that this publication doesn't actually appear to cover sumo to any meaningful degree and from how utterly substance-free the article was, it turns out that the "retirement age up?" claim didn't actually originate with them, but much more likely from this Daily Shincho article dated online to one day prior (and out in print even earlier, I presume):

https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2025/06170603/?all=1

Much longer but pushes all the tired narratives that we've come to not love, including the idea that Takanohana was "expected" to become chairman after Kitanoumi's death if not for those meddling kids that unscrupulous Hakkaku (that's certainly not how I remember any of the contemporary coverage), and that some - obviously delusional - people likewise expected Hakuho to lead some sort of anti-Hakkaku alliance; never mind that he was a newbie oyakata who arguably started his career from below zero in the reputation game, and with even less internal support than Takanohana had. And of course they also couldn't go without the familiar "the penalties levied against Hakuho post-Hokuseiho amounted to Kyokai-sanctioned bullying" canard. Will Daily Shincho ever say anything negative about Hokuseiho's Hakuho-sanctioned bullying?

The article goes on to insinuate that it's more or less Hakkaku's fault that the board of directors is currently full of people who weren't even ozeki on the dohyo (without making any attempt to explain why anyone should believe that that's a bad thing in itself), clearly wanting to have readers draw the conclusion that he's somehow personally responsible in particular for all the high-profile yokozuna implosions of the last couple of decades, guys who "should" have challenged him for the chairman post over the last few years. I guess Shincho's target audience is expected to not understand that the Kyokai chairmanship isn't that sort of constantly contested position anyway (none of the board positions, really) and that it's customary for anyone elected to end up serving to the age limit unchallenged, barring scandal or premature death.

Lastly, it grudgingly gives Hakkaku credit for sumo's current popularity boom, but not without ending that section with "some say he's just been lucky". Some who? Apparently no one that can be named. At that point the article has arguably devolved into the same no-substance junk as the other one.

Anyway, even though it leads the headline, the retirement age topic doesn't actually come up until the very end of the article, and substance-wise it boils down simply to "Apparently a proposal to increase the retirement age has been floated internally." That's it. Nothing about whether this is in any way likely, or if it's even still on the agenda at this time at all. Alleged details of the proposal do follow, namely not just making 70 the standard mandatory retirement age but also keeping the sanyo system up to age 75 (!), but Shincho's writer didn't actually dare to put his own name to any of that, instead attributing it to a "veteran sumo journalist". That same anonymous and quite possibly entirely fictitious journalist is also cited for large other parts of the article, including the "Takanohana true believer" stuff from the start, so you be the judge how credible that is.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that this retirement age extension is supposedly part of Hakkaku further shoring up the continued viability of his regime...if you're now wondering, "why would anyone need to support Hakkaku for that when any 6 board members could just vote it in", you've reached the same point that I have in questioning this entire "Hakkaku dictatorship" narrative.

Edited June 20 by Asashosakari

[Yubinhaad 11,927]

Isegahama Miyagino-oyakata (former Yokozuna Asahifuji) has been moved to the sanyo section of the oyakata list, having turned 65 yesterday.

[Kintamayama 46,752]

Kumagatani (Ex-Tamaasuka) will be taking over Ootake beya after September as the current Oyakata will be retiring.  Kumagatani will be assuming the Ootake name..As there was no other Oyakata coach at Ootake, the search was on for a non-Oyakata from the same Nishonoseki Ichimon to take over the heya. No name change for the heya, same rikishi will remain there, only the Oyakata's name changes. Premises stay the same as well. The retiring Oyakata will remain at the heya as Kumagatani. 

Edited July 31 by Kintamayama

[Steve 11]

Another less than stellar rikishi becoming stable master, they get rid of takanohama and hakuho yet these mediocre buffoons thrive in the nsk, not great for the kids he is now in charge of

[Tochinofuji 404]

39 minutes ago, Steve said:

Another less than stellar rikishi becoming stable master, they get rid of takanohama and hakuho yet these mediocre buffoons thrive in the nsk, not great for the kids he is now in charge of

Prowess in the ring is no indication of potential as a coach or stablemaster. They're separate skillsets, and Kumagatani-oyakata, as far as I know, has done nothing to deserve the disrespect of being called a "mediocre buffoon". It should be remembered that Takanohana and Hakuho (the latter of whom I thought was dealt with unfairly and who I think had significant potential as an oyakata) had significant heya bullying issues come to light and were hardly perfect as stablemasters, regardless of their stellar performances on the dohyo. 

[Koorifuu 1,099]

Honestly, based on my memory of Tamaasuka as a rikishi, I trust he can do very well as stablemaster.

Edited July 31 by Koorifuu

[Dairenzu 8]

Quite sudden and anticlimactic resolution for Otake-beya, I guess it makes sense that there was so little speculation.

I initially expected there would be a desire to keep the stable line unbroken to ensure Oho could eventually take it over, but I lost confidence in this plan considering an assistant oyakata was never brought in sooner and they haven't recruited a new rikishi in over five years.

I also thought if they did transfer in a new shisho they might go with someone a little older, but I'd guess there is an agreement Tamaasuka will step aside when Oho retires, whenever that is. Good opportunity for Tamaasuka to build something to pass on, and he must not have had much to do at Kataonami anyway. Seems to increase the likelihood that Kataonami will fold if Tamawashi ever retires. 

[Kaitetsu 346]

45 minutes ago, Dairenzu said:

Seems to increase the likelihood that Kataonami will fold if Tamawashi ever retires. 

Isn't the natural path be him to take it over? Like, sure Tamakasuga is only 53, but surely they can use that temporary kabu former san'yaku get and then find a temporary kabu for Tamawashi and then have him take over the Kataonami name? But I guess kabus are really scarce right now