Nagoya Ozeki Promotion Tracking (Daiesho, Hosoryu, Wakmotoharu)

[Reonito 1,773]

5 minutes ago, Godango said:

Personally I wish they'd adopt 33+ over three in sanyaku as an official requirement (with an exception for a hiramaku yusho in basho 1), and remove the subjectivity of 'standard of sumo' and whatnot. 

Really, it's not that far off. Since 1985, there have been a handful of promotions with 32, and a couple of denials with 33, but I'm not sure getting rid of that flexibility, which can be useful in specific circumstances, would achieve much.

[Godango 1,092]

15 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Really, it's not that far off. Since 1985, there have been a handful of promotions with 32, and a couple of denials with 33, but I'm not sure getting rid of that flexibility, which can be useful in specific circumstances, would achieve much.

I could be more forgiving of refusing a 33 than promoting a 32.

That said; I also think they should just scrap the 'must be two ozeki' rule; and beyond that what need is there for a lenient promotion? Sincerely asking, I may be overlooking something.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

1 minute ago, Godango said:

they should just scrap the 'must be two ozeki' rule

You are asking Kyokai to break an old tradition? Good luck with that. 

You could also propose to abolish the banzuke entirely - why stop at half-measures? 

[Godango 1,092]

40 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

You are asking Kyokai to break an old tradition? Good luck with that. 

You could also propose to abolish the banzuke entirely - why stop at half-measures? 

I said I think they should, I know better than to think for even a second that they will.

[Yarimotsu 638]

1 hour ago, Godango said:

Personally I wish they'd adopt 33+ over three in sanyaku as an official requirement (with an exception for a hiramaku yusho in basho 1), and remove the subjectivity of 'standard of sumo' and whatnot. 

No one is going to ugly sumo/henka their way to this; and history is changed thusly (from 2000 onwards):

• Onokuni (promoted 1 tournament later)
• Chiyotaikai (promoted 21 tournaments later)
• Kisenosato (promoted 1 tournament later)
• Goeido (never promoted [crazy!])
• Asanoyama (promoted 1 tournament later)
• Shodai (never promoted )

Based on that, I say no more 'lenient' promotions. If Shodai was never Ozeki we'd be no worse off; and sure, Goeido was long-term -- but imo aside from his surprise zensho he was always joi/sanyaku masquerading as Ozeki.

I wasn't happy with limiting it to just 23 years of ozeki promotions so I expanded that sample size as much as I reasonably could (acknowledging the standards were way different then yada yada)... Also I didn't limit basho 1 in any way. Used this query: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&amp;n_basho=4&amp;op=<=&amp;sum_wins=32&amp;group_by=rikishi&amp;showintai=on&amp;having=1&amp;form2_rank=k-s&amp;form3_rank=S&amp;form3_year=>1950&amp;form4_rank=o

Rikishi	Intai Date	Analysis
Kagamisato	1958.01	Gets there 2 later, gets Y
Matsunobori	1961.11	Never makes it. Arguably that's fine.
Asashio	1962.01	Gets there 5 later, gets Y
Wakanohana	1962.05	Gets there 2 later, gets Y
Wakahaguro	1965.03	Gets there 1 later.
Kitabayama	1966.05	Should get there 18 later.
Tochinoumi	1966.11	Should get there 9 later. Never gets Y
Sadanoyama	1968.03	Gets there 1 later, gets Y
Kashiwado	1969.07	Gets there 1 later, gets Y
Tamanoshima	1971.09	Gets there 9 later, gets Y
Kiyokuni	1974.01	Gets there 1 later.
Kitanofuji	1974.07	Gets there 4 later, gets Y
Kotozakura	1974.07	Might get there 5 years later instead of getting Y.
Kaiketsu	1979.01	Gets there 1 later.
Mienoumi	1980.11	Should get there 21 later, then Y 1 later.
Masuiyama	1981.03	Never makes it. Arguably that's fine.
Kitanoumi	1985.01	Gets there 1 or 2 later, gets Y 3 later or same time.
Kotokaze	1985.11	Gets there 1 later.
Onokuni	1991.07	Gets there 1 later, gets Y
Chiyotaikai	2010.01	Might get there 3 or 4 years later, should get there after 5.
Kisenosato	2019.01	Gets there 1 later, gets Y
Goeido	2020.01	Never makes it. Arguably that's fine.
Asanoyama		Gets there 1 later.
Shodai		Never makes it. Arguably that's fine.

Make of it what you will. I'm not sure that refusing that many ozeki promotions is necessarily a good thing for the integrity of the sport.

Where I have used 'should' or 'might' they are enjoying Ozeki privileges to maintain rank in between those dates. 

The final caveat I will offer is that we cannot ever know how the rikishi performs when ozeki compared to when not. Kotozakura probably isn't coming in at the end of his career to snatch a whole bunch of consecutive yusho without having been established ozeki for years before. Whole contexts change.

[Godango 1,092]

7 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

I wasn't happy with limiting it to just 23 years of ozeki promotions so I expanded that sample size as much as I reasonably could (acknowledging the standards were way different then yada yada)...

Not going to lie; I was planning to go back further this evening and was hoping someone would beat me to it.

I appreciate the point around how "without the benefit of ozeki would *insert rikishi* have been able to make ozeki and/or yokozuna later". But my rebuttal to that would be; no-one else gets those benefits. If they don't make it without them, they didn't earn it.

I'm being very simplistic (black/white) about this deliberately, I know there is obviously room for subjectivity and general standard of competition at the time. But at least a hard and fast rule omits any conversation around whether a rikishi 'earned' the rank. Even though I know many of us are drawn to those discussions.

[Jakusotsu 6,389]

Guys, you don't seriously expect the same basho records if they had not been promoted, do you?

[Godango 1,092]

1 minute ago, Jakusotsu said:

Guys, you don't seriously expect the same basho records if they had not been promoted, do you?

Probs not, but it's all we have to work with in a pointless speculative exercise. 

[Asashosakari 20,223]

1 hour ago, Godango said:

I could be more forgiving of refusing a 33 than promoting a 32.

That said; I also think they should just scrap the 'must be two ozeki' rule; and beyond that what need is there for a lenient promotion? Sincerely asking, I may be overlooking something.

You do realize that in your alternative world, guys like Goeido are blocking off the lower sanyaku ranks even more, to the detriment of everybody else? If anything, there should be more and earlier promotions to ozeki, not fewer and later ones. Even with the existing rules, it's already the case that about half the rikishi promoted to ozeki eventually become yokozuna. Why would anyone want to make it so that there are more rikishi who finish their career as yokozuna than rikishi who finish as ozeki? Makes absolutely no sense to have the second-highest rank be the more exclusive one.

[I am the Yokozuna 221]

1 hour ago, Godango said:

Based on that, I say no more 'lenient' promotions. If Shodai was never Ozeki we'd be no worse off; and sure, Goeido was long-term -- but imo aside from his surprise zensho he was always joi/sanyaku masquerading as Ozeki.

When would this bullshit stop? 15-0 zensho yusho for an Ozeki, with an audacious kubinage against Harumafuji in his pomp, is something that I have witnessed from Hakuho and Harumafuji at the ozeki rank, and never from a joi/sanyaku rikishi in the last quarter of a century. Please let us have more surprise zensho yushos from ozekis. Unsuccesful ozeki could be ascribed to Mitakeumi with his four or five bashos at this rank, not to someone who spent 6 years at an ozeki rank. For me the ozeki should strive for kachikoshi, and 9-6 is a respectable result, so in that regard Goeido did more than well. 

[Godango 1,092]

1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

You do realize that in your alternative world, guys like Goeido are blocking off the lower sanyaku ranks even more, to the detriment of everybody else?

As in because he'd be constantly taking up a sanyaku spot? I suppose there is truth to that. But at the same time; if they can't knock him out of that spot and/or perform well enough to force an additional one; then that's just the banzuke serving its purpose, no?

2 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Even with the existing rules, it's already the case that about half the rikishi promoted to ozeki eventually become yokozuna. Why would anyone want to make it so that there are more rikishi who finish their career as yokozuna than rikishi who finish as ozeki? Makes absolutely no sense to have the second-highest rank be the more exclusive one.

Another fair point, but even in my hypothetical we're only down (following @Yarimotsu's post) 4 ozeki, and 1-2 yokozuna. Granted, this is all bullocks cos who knows what those tournaments/banzuke would have looked like with those rikishi not being O/Y but still. I don't think we're looking at a fundamentally different history.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

1 minute ago, Godango said:

As in because he'd be constantly taking up a sanyaku spot? I suppose there is truth to that. But at the same time; if they can't knock him out of that spot and/or perform well enough to force an additional one; then that's just the banzuke serving its purpose, no?

The problem is that it's not gonna stop there. Don't take this personally, but as soon as there are constantly 3 to 5 sekiwake on the banzuke, most of the same people who thought that the ozeki rank wasn't exclusive enough are going to start arguing the same about the sekiwake rank, and demand tougher promotion rules for that rank, too.

 

3 minutes ago, Godango said:

Another fair point, but even in my hypothetical we're only down (following @Yarimotsu's post) 4 ozeki, and 1-2 yokozuna. Granted, this is all bullocks cos who knows what those tournaments/banzuke would have looked like with those rikishi not being O/Y but still. I don't think we're looking at a fundamentally different history.

That's why I included the "earlier" / "later" part. As an extreme bit of illustration: Guess when I would have promoted Mitakeumi to ozeki as dictator of sumo? After his second yusho in September 2019. Yeah, yeah, only 9+9+12 = 30 wins, but that man had been doing ozeki sumo for two years by that point in time. 100 years ago, when they had to care less about what narrowminded fans and journalists think, I have no doubt that a rikishi of comparable standing would have been promoted.

[Godango 1,092]

9 minutes ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

When would this bullshit stop? 15-0 zensho yusho for an Ozeki, with an audacious kubinage against Harumafuji in his pomp, is something that I have witnessed from Hakuho and Harumafuji at the ozeki rank, and never from a joi/sanyaku rikishi in the last quarter of a century. Please let us have more surprise zensho yushos from ozekis. Unsuccesful ozeki could be ascribed to Mitakeumi with his four or five bashos at this rank, not to someone who spent 6 years at an ozeki rank. For me the ozeki should strive for kachikoshi, and 9-6 is a respectable result, so in that regard Goeido did more than well. 

Sure, I probably could have phrased that better. What I meant to say is that his zensho-yusho aside; I don't think of him as "one of the great ozeki".

Also, in fairness, I made the case of excluding his zensho from that statement, as it was obviously a spectacular achievement, in what I would OTHERWISE consider to be a pretty average (while again, as I disclaimed, long-term) ozeki tenure.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

Just now, Godango said:

I don't think of him as "one of the great ozeki

So, how many "great" ozeki do you have on your list? 

[Godango 1,092]

1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

The problem is that it's not gonna stop there. Don't take this personally, but as soon as there are constantly 3 to 5 sekiwake on the banzuke, most of the same people who thought that the ozeki rank wasn't exclusive enough are going to start arguing the same about the sekiwake rank, and demand tougher promotion rules for that rank, too.

 

That's why I included the "earlier" / "later" part. As an extreme bit of illustration: Guess when I would have promoted Mitakeumi to ozeki as dictator of sumo? After his second yusho in September 2019. Yeah, yeah, only 9+9+12 = 30 wins, but that man had been doing ozeki sumo for two years by that point in time. 100 years ago, when they had to care less about what narrowminded fans and journalists think, I have no doubt that a rikishi of comparable standing would have been promoted.

Yeah you're not wrong. As I mentioned earlier, I'm deliberately being black/white on a grey issue. The answer is probably having multiple finite criteria; (multiple usho could be one, x wins in y tournaments another, etc). But yeah at that point you may as well just stick with the status quo. Fair play.

[Godango 1,092]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

So, how many "great" ozeki do you have on your list? 

Are we seriously going to keep coming at me over semantics?

Goeido was a perfectly adequate ozeki. He had one spectacular tournament which was an outlier. He also MK'd in almost 1 in 3 of his ozeki tournaments, and got double digits in slightly more than 1 in 5.

If your standard is 'a good ozeki is one who holds the rank' than yeah, he was really good. If your standard is 'a good ozeki is one who is always in the yusho hunt and pushing for yokozuna' he wasn't that. If we're coming at this with different standards or definitions for what we want ozeki to be, that's fine; but it's another discussion.

On that note, I'm happy to take that discussion to it's own topic rather than keep taking this thread in this tangent.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

Just now, Godango said:

Are we seriously going to keep coming at me over semantics?

Goeido was a perfectly adequate ozeki. He had one spectacular tournament which was an outlier. He also MK'd in almost 1 in 3 of his ozeki tournaments, and got double digits in slightly more than 1 in 5.

If your standard is 'a good ozeki is one who holds the rank' than yeah, he was really good. If your standard is 'a good ozeki is one who is always in the yusho hunt and pushing for yokozuna' he wasn't that. If we're coming at this with different standards or definitions for what we want ozeki to be, that's fine; but it's another discussion.

On that note, I'm happy to take that discussion to it's own topic rather than keep taking this thread in this tangent.

I'm trying to find your goalposts. Is Takakeisho a great ozeki or a "perfectly adequate" one, for example? And should perfectly adequate ozeki deserve the rank or should it be reserved for great ones only? 

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Can I a) request this get split off somewhere into Ozumo discussions because it is going OT and b) commend to the parties my numerical examination of ōzeki some time back? That at least removes subjectivity in interpretation of ōzeki records, even if that's not possible regarding the content of their sumo.

[Godango 1,092]

15 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Can I a) request this get split off somewhere into Ozumo discussions because it is going OT and b) commend to the parties my numerical examination of ōzeki some time back? That at least removes subjectivity in interpretation of ōzeki records, even if that's not possible regarding the content of their sumo.

Regarding part a) already starting a new topic and would welcome those who are able merging the relevant posts above to it. 

 

Regarding part b) I shall.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Godango

[Asashosakari 20,223]

23 minutes ago, Godango said:

If your standard is 'a good ozeki is one who is always in the yusho hunt and pushing for yokozuna' he wasn't that.

Well, that's the standard of a yokozuna who just doesn't have that rank yet.

[Koorifuu 1,105]

Here's a recap of the last six shin-ozeki.

• Tochinoshin
  • BEFORE: 45 wins in 4 basho. 1x Yusho, 1x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER: immediate kyujo, never really recovered.
• Takakeisho
  • BEFORE: 63 wins in 6 basho. 1x Yusho, 1x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER: immediate kyujo. On and off for years but never quite at the same level.
• Asanoyama
  • BEFORE: 51 wins in 5 basho. 1x Yusho, 1x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER: kyujo on his second ozeki basho. Seemed to have recovered, but we all know how it turned out after a year.
• Shodai
  • BEFORE: 56 wins in 5 basho. 1x Yusho, 2x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER:  immediate kyujo. Showed up on the dohyo but far from the same level.
• Mitakeumi
  • BEFORE: spent 31 consecutive basho in either sanyaku or joi (lowest M3). 7 consecutive KK at sanyaku by the time of promotion. Total of 3x Yusho
  • AFTER: one good ozeki basho, then kyujo. Continues to show up, but far from the same level.
• Kirishima
  • BEFORE: 79 wins in 8 basho. 1x Yusho, 1x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER. immediate kyujo.

So... Unless your plan is to investigate what exactly is crippling everyone not named Ishibashi the moment they're promoted, and prevent it from happening, I'm not sure how you'd avoid weak ozeki being promoted.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Koorifuu

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

21 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

So... Unless your plan is to investigate what exactly is crippling everyone not named Ishibashi the moment they're promoted

We know the answer: you go kyujo because you can. 

What is the saying? Half of your life you work for your reputation, the other half your reputation works for you. 

[Koorifuu 1,105]

2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

We know the answer: you go kyujo because you can. 

What is the saying? Half of your life you work for your reputation, the other half your reputation works for you. 

This probably applies to some old ozeki, but you're making it sound like they just took advantage of the privilege of being able to take a luxury break once in a while. But arguably only Takakeisho ever got back anywhere near the level that got him there to begin with, so I dare say stats are pointing otherwise. I'm honestly earnestly wishing that there's a change - that Kirishima recovers fully and that Hoshoryu stays clear.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Koorifuu

[BuBa 77]

6 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Here's a recap of the last six shin-ozeki.

• Tochinoshin
  • BEFORE: 45 wins in 4 basho. 1x Yusho, 1x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER: immediate kyujo, never really recovered.
• Takakeisho
  • BEFORE: 63 wins in 6 basho. 1x Yusho, 1x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER: immediate kyujo. On and off for years but never quite at the same level.
• Asanoyama
  • BEFORE: 51 wins in 5 basho. 1x Yusho, 1x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER: kyujo on his second ozeki basho. Seemed to have recovered, but we all know how it turned out after a year.
• Shodai
  • BEFORE: 56 wins in 5 basho. 1x Yusho, 2x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER:  immediate kyujo. Showed up on the dohyo but far from the same level.
• Mitakeumi
  • BEFORE: spent 31 consecutive basho in either sanyaku or joi (lowest M3). 7 consecutive KK at sanyaku by the time of promotion. Total of 3x Yusho
  • AFTER: one good ozeki basho, then kyujo. Continues to show up, but far from the same level.
• Kirishima
  • BEFORE: 79 wins in 8 basho. 1x Yusho, 1x Jun-Yusho
  • AFTER. immediate kyujo.

So... Unless your plan is to investigate what exactly is crippling everyone not named Ishibashi the moment they're promoted, and prevent it from happening, I'm not sure how you'd avoid weak ozeki being promoted.

Oh no, this looks like a curse. It’s official.

Edited July 25, 2023 by BuBa

[Gurowake 4,148]

Not having at least one Ozeki on each side of the banzuke makes as much sense as not having at least one Sekiwake and one Komusubi on each side the banzuke.  If you want to jettison those requirements at the same time you jettison the Ozeki requirement, well, that's a reasonable stance to take.  It makes less sense to throw away one of those requirements without throwing away the whole system though.  If you're going to be tough on Ozeki promotions such that you don't care if there are less than two, then you'd presumably apply similar strict rules there are now for extra sanyaku slots: 11 wins (maybe tone it down to 10?) at Komusubi required for Sekiwake, and for Komusubi, 8 wins at M1e, and probably something slightly easier than now like 9 wins at M1w, 10 at M2, 11 at M3, with acknowledgement that you might need to promote more in case of an unworkable maegashira logjam.  Recall that they apparently do not currently do direct Maegashira to Sekiwake promotions to extra slots, even for 14 wins at M1, so such a promotion would be impossible under this new system.

That's not a huge deal for the current banzuke, where all new Sekiwake for many basho have forced their way in with 11 wins at Komusubi, and generally there's been someone with a Komusubi-worthy record who's left out, and it generally wouldn't be an issue whenever there is a shortage of Ozeki, but when you get 7 senior sanyaku at some point in the future, like after Kakuryu or Terunofuji's promotions to Ozeki, you're looking at many fewer junior sanyaku on average, possibly none.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Gurowake