Nagoya Ozeki Promotion Tracking (Daiesho, Hosoryu, Wakmotoharu)

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

5 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

This probably applies to some old ozeki, but you're making it sound like they just took advantage of the privilege of being able to take a luxury break once in a while. But arguably only Takakeisho ever got back anywhere near the level that got him there to begin with, so I dare say stats are pointing otherwise. I'm honestly earnestly wishing that there's a change - that Kirishima recovers fully and that Hoshoryu stays clear.

So, what is the explanation then - a mysterious "Ozeki curse"?

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Recall that they apparently do not currently do direct Maegashira to Sekiwake promotions to extra slots

Didn't Takayasu get promoted straight to S after the infamous "Abi henka" basho?

[RabidJohn 2,053]

2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Didn't Takayasu get promoted straight to S after the infamous "Abi henka" basho?

No, but he has gone straight to K from both M5 and M6.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

6 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

No, but he has gone straight to K from both M5 and M6.

Yes, he went from M1 to S. 

2022.11	M1e		12-3 D	Jun-Yusho (7th) Shukun-sho (4th)
2023.01	S2e		1-5-9

 

It was done to enable a possible conclusion of his ozeki run, I assume - but still...

Edited July 25, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama

[Reonito 1,773]

17 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Yes, he went from M1 to S. 

2022.11	M1e		12-3 D	Jun-Yusho (7th) Shukun-sho (4th)
2023.01	S2e		1-5-9

 

It was done to enable a possible conclusion of his ozeki run, I assume - but still...

It also allowed them to avoid having 5 komusubi on what was a very tricky banzuke to put together

[Gurowake 4,147]

4 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Didn't Takayasu get promoted straight to S after the infamous "Abi henka" basho?

Right, I forgot about that.  Yeah, that was either to avoid 5 Komusubi, to allow him to be promoted to Ozeki next basho, or really because they changed their mind.  Certainly the banzuke looks much nicer with 4 S and 4 K than with 3 and 5.  They're never really consistent about much of anything when there's a purpose to be served.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Gurowake

[RabidJohn 2,053]

12 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Yes, he went from M1 to S. 

2022.11	M1e		12-3 D	Jun-Yusho (7th) Shukun-sho (4th)
2023.01	S2e		1-5-9

 

It was done to enable a possible conclusion of his ozeki run, I assume - but still...

D'oh! I completely forgot he'd had another sekiwake basho recently - I was looking at his pre-ozeki promotions.

[Koorifuu 1,105]

15 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

So, what is the explanation then - a mysterious "Ozeki curse"?

I'm no sceptic by any means but would still rather look at it from a practical perspective. Kirishima's rockstar tour through Mongolia got me wondering if there's any PR/celebratory/ceremonial novelty that's been putting too much strain on them.

This not to mention the COVID times, as Mitakeumi and Shodai are far from the only ones suffering from a subsided performance level & increased injury proneness since, not just in the ozumo world.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

any PR/celebratory/ceremonial novelty that's been putting too much strain on them.

FWIW Asashōryū's Wikipedia entry notes that his performance in the basho immediately after his wedding was dismal, apparently because the social round after Japanese weddings prevented him from doing training.

[RabidJohn 2,053]

3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

I'm no sceptic by any means but would still rather look at it from a practical perspective. Kirishima's rockstar tour through Mongolia got me wondering if there's any PR/celebratory/ceremonial novelty that's been putting too much strain on them.

I predicted that Kirishima would only get a basic KK in his shin-ozeki basho because of the double whammy of post-COVID ozeki promotion and hatsu yusho celebrations impinging on his training. 

Nothing clairvoyant about it - such dips in performance have happened often enough in the past. (And proof of my lack of clairvoyancy is that I did not predict three days kyujo.)

Edited July 26, 2023 by RabidJohn

[Yamanashi 4,066]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

FWIW Asashōryū's Wikipedia entry notes that his performance in the basho immediately after his wedding was dismal, apparently because the social round after Japanese weddings prevented him from doing training.

The lack of training is secondary; the total non-lack of drinking is probably primary.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

11 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

The lack of training is secondary; the total non-lack of drinking is probably primary.

Remember Kirishima's photo at the airport upon return from Mongolia? He was having a massive hangover. 

[I am the Yokozuna 221]

So, we have two back-to-back promotions to ozeki, so it is a good period to be watching sumo. Daeisho and Wakamotoharu fought quite well during the tournament, fell short of their target, but I did not feel they failed. I would speculate that Terunofuji would not enter Aki, post-promotion blues for Hoshuryu would make him achieve kachikochi, then Takakeisho and Kirishima would fight for kachikoshi too. So, I think there might be a chance for one of Daeisho and Wakamotoharu to achieve a good result of 11-12 wins, which could lead to a possible promotion in case of a similar result in Kyushu. So, not everything is lost, in my mind. 

[Gurowake 4,147]

8 hours ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

So, I think there might be a chance for one of Daeisho and Wakamotoharu to achieve a good result of 11-12 wins

There's a chance, yes, but given their career paths it's more likely that they already hit their peak in the two previous basho.  Hoshoryu was just a matter of time, while those two needed to make use of their run of strong tournaments when they could if they wanted a promotion.  12 wins probably won't be good enough for either of them for immediately promotion, and they'd need another 12 after that, and there's nothing about their history that suggests they are particularly capable of that.  If either of them were capable of sustained 11-12 win tournaments, they would have been Ozeki a long time ago as they've had plenty of time to develop.  They need to spike the 13+ Yusho right now for promotion, or it's probably not going to happen.

Keep in mind that people were talking about Meisei and Takanosho as potential Ozeki candidates not too long ago, while I was fairly sure they'd end up doing almost exact what they've been doing, simply because their early careers didn't indicate any real promise to push to the next level.  Daieisho has a slightly higher chance than Wakakmotoharu to be able to push it to the next level given that he's had many years in the joi plus a Yusho already as well as a fairly young age when entering Makuuchi, but he still took a long time to develop into a joi rikishi.  Wakamotoharu may have seemed like he went straight to the joi once he got to Makuuchi, but he took his time working through the lower ranks when no one was paying much attention.  Both of them will probably start having trouble dealing with all the new talent as their best days are probably slightly behind them. 

 

[RabidJohn 2,053]

13 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Wakamotoharu may have seemed like he went straight to the joi once he got to Makuuchi, but he took his time working through the lower ranks when no one was paying much attention. 

Yeah, he's definitely a late bloomer, 30 in October, but that's not as old as it used to be, if you get my drift.

Back when I started watching 30 was approaching the end of a career. Now it seems to be around the peak for many.

Wakamotoharu could have another 5 or more years in makuuchi, and he doesn't look anywhere near ready to relinquish his sekiwake slot yet.

I believe a 14-1Y at the Aki basho would get him promoted, but as much as I like his style, he's not shown any indication of being able to produce that kind of result.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

I believe a 14-1Y at the Aki basho would get him promoted

Just for reference: the last non-Terunofuji non-Hakuho 14-1 happened in January of 2020 (Tokushoryu). Wakamotoharu's best Makuuchi record so far is 11-4 (once).

It's not happening. 

[Fashiritētā 210]

41 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Just for reference: the last non-Terunofuji non-Hakuho 14-1 happened in January of 2020 (Tokushoryu). Wakamotoharu's best Makuuchi record so far is 11-4 (once).

It's not happening. 

That’s the great thing about being an armchair Sumo fan, we hope for the best.

Glass half full thing, and would be great if Wakamotoharu did.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Fashiritētā

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

28 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

That’s the great thing about being an armchair Sumo fan, we hope for the best.

Glass half full thing, and would be great if Wakamotoharu did.

This is like hoping that your favourite football/soccer player scores 5 goals in the next game. Extremely unlikely. 

[Fashiritētā 210]

31 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This is like hoping that your favourite football/soccer player scores 5 goals in the next game. Extremely unlikely. 

Yes, but still possible on any given day.

Thats why we watch.

Hakkeyoi 

Yes, im a positive Pete

Edited July 28, 2023 by Fashiritētā

[RabidJohn 2,053]

@Bunbukuchagama 

5 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I believe a 14-1Y at the Aki basho would get him promoted, but as much as I like his style, he's not shown any indication of being able to produce that kind of result.

 

[dingo 1,476]

4 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Just for reference: the last non-Terunofuji non-Hakuho 14-1 happened in January of 2020 (Tokushoryu). Wakamotoharu's best Makuuchi record so far is 11-4 (once).

It's not happening. 

Goeido hit zensho yusho after 2 years of barely scraping by as an ozeki. 

And Leicester City won the Premier League. 

You even mentioned Tokushoryu's yusho yourself. 

Miracles happen. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by dingo

[just_some_guy 308]

21 hours ago, dingo said:

Goeido hit zensho yusho after 2 years of barely scraping by as an ozeki. 

And Leicester City won the Premier League. 

You even mentioned Tokushoryu's yusho yourself. 

Miracles happen. 

Yeah I found it funny that the most insane unlikely yusho that I've seen since I've been watching sumo was mentioned and then followed by "It's not happening." I said "it's not happening" about a Tokushoryu yusho until like... day 15 of that basho. I thought there was a chance they'd refuse to give him the cup simply on principle.

[Reonito 1,773]

26 minutes ago, just_some_guy said:

Yeah I found it funny that the most insane unlikely yusho that I've seen since I've been watching sumo was mentioned and then followed by "It's not happening." I said "it's not happening" about a Tokushoryu yusho until like... day 15 of that basho. I thought there was a chance they'd refuse to give him the cup simply on principle.

Although in terms of probability, there's a big difference between "over many years of following sumo, we've seen some really unlikely things happen" and "this specific very unlikely thing will happen in the next basho" 

[Wakawakawaka 215]

On 29/07/2023 at 15:05, just_some_guy said:

Yeah I found it funny that the most insane unlikely yusho that I've seen since I've been watching sumo was mentioned and then followed by "It's not happening." I said "it's not happening" about a Tokushoryu yusho until like... day 15 of that basho. I thought there was a chance they'd refuse to give him the cup simply on principle.

I think he did too. During interview... 'is it ok for a rikishi like me to win the yusho?'

[Sue 535]

On 28/07/2023 at 17:38, dingo said:

Goeido hit zensho yusho after 2 years of barely scraping by as an ozeki. 

And Leicester City won the Premier League. 

You even mentioned Tokushoryu's yusho yourself. 

Miracles happen. 

We even came with an inch of a Hokutofuji yusho. And a Nishikigi one.