Wakawakawaka
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Wakawakawaka last won the day on February 14
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I think it would be fun to have a post-GTB poll to present the headscratcher award.. there's always at least one, and there's plenty of candidates this time around. I nominate Nishikifuji.
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GTB invite- Hatsu 2023- 141 entries, the line is dead.
Wakawakawaka replied to Kintamayama's topic in Sumo Games
That's an interesting idea. Here's what happens if you take the NORMSDIST of the player's score minus the AVG division score, divided by the std err of the top half of the results, and apply that to a top division percentile. Player - points - percentile - wins (using percentiles from completed basho 1959-present) First basho 199803 Ekigozan 35 0.967 13-2 Getayukata 34 0.946 12-3 Leonishiki 27 0.500 8-7 Imanonami 25 0.323 6-9 Okikuma 21 0.084 4-11 Bobokuni 20 0.054 4-11 Hypothetical Makuuchi from 202401 TimSumo 76 0.972 13-2 BlackPinkMawashi 76 0.972 13-2 Kaito 73 0.905 11-4 Heriokuno 73 0.905 11-4 TochiYESshin 72 0.866 10-5 Gurowake 72 0.866 10-5 Reonito 71 0.818 10-5 Shoryuyama 71 0.818 10-5 Gooner 70 0.76 9-6 Konosato 68 0.619 8-7 Golynohana 66 0.46 8-7 Goshobiyama 64 0.307 6-9 Asashosakari 64 0.307 6-9 Hidenotora 62 0.182 5-10 Cheesofuji 61 0.134 5-10 Chiyonosawa 60 0.095 4-11 Nantonoyama 60 0.095 4-11 Korinokoishi 59 0.065 4-11 Oskanohana 56 0.017 3-12 ScreechingOwl 56 0.017 3-12 -
Just submit your entry with your usual e-mail, but type in the new shikona. That's what I did anyways.
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I love how enthusiastic the sumo community is with databases and statistics! I feel right at home!
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GTB invite- Hatsu 2023- 141 entries, the line is dead.
Wakawakawaka replied to Kintamayama's topic in Sumo Games
@Gurowake No thoughts on the method I've outlined? It works pretty well. You can compute ranks formulatically also if i understand what you mean by that... say there are 10 players in juryo, j1e's mathematical rank is 2.0, j1w 2.1, j2e 2.2... j5w 2.9, ms1e 3.0. A 9-6 is worth +3 ranks in real juryo banzuke, in gtb banzuke it is worth +3/14 of the division or +0.2whatever EDIT: I also think a TD system might be useful (the player's debut basho would determine whether they qualify for a TD) Consider the following... 70 new players debuted in 2020. Of those that debuted with a 10-5 or better record (11); 4 reached the top ten at some point later on (with a 5th barely missing by reaching #11), and 3 were 'drop-outs', having yet to participate in 6 total basho. Of those that debuted 9-6 or less (70), 5 reached top ten at some point, and 44 were 'drop-outs'. So perhaps someone who gets a 10-5 or better in debut could be granted a MsTD, and someone who finished 8-7 or 9-6 could be granted a SdTD. The function of this would be 3-fold 1) Prevent Jk and Jd from getting too many 15-0's if we are to implement a division based scoring system 2) Accelerate players rank matching their ability. 3) From my experience trying this 'meta-GTB' exercise, I've noticed a lot of turnover of players. Many debut and participate in only a few basho before disappearing. This makes the meta-banzuke rather bottom-heavy, so a TD system would help keep the middle divisions full. -
GTB invite- Hatsu 2023- 141 entries, the line is dead.
Wakawakawaka replied to Kintamayama's topic in Sumo Games
How about this? There are 6 strata (divisions). Take the average point score for each division, example. M = 53.4, J = 49.57, Ms = 52.89, Sd = 49.7, Jd = 41.77, Jk = 40.43 Rearrange those, so that the highest division has the highest value and the lowest division has the lowest value. M = 53.4, J = 52.89, Ms = 49.7, Sd = 49.57, Jd = 41.77, Jk = 40.43 Those would be the MK/KK lines for each division. Then comes the problem of amplitude, how many wins above or below the MK/KK line to give? Take the std. err. of something. The scores as a whole is usually around 9 but fluctuates between 6-12, but is heavily influenced by outliers at the bottom. Maybe apply some sort of outlier removal or take the std. err. of the middle 50% or something. Let's assume the std. err. is 9. If someone gets 9 points above the division average, that's 1 SD. Apply the NORMSDIST function in excel, that returns a value of 0.841 (think of it as a win %), multiply that by 15 'bouts', and you get 12.62. Round that to 13. Conclusion: 9 points above division average = 13-2, and consequently 9 points below division average = 2-13. Just as a fun exercise, using the above averages with a std. err. of 9, if an individual scored 54 points, it would be worth an 8-7 in M or J, 10-5 in Ms or Sd, 14-1 in Jd or Jk. -
Bushozan now has 10 Juryo KK in a row, I'm not sure how to look it up, but that must put him pretty high on that list I'd assume ('greatest yo-yo rikishi of all time?' :P)
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GTB invite- July (Nagoya) 2024 - Results!!! - 204 entries
Wakawakawaka replied to Kintamayama's topic in Sumo Games
That happened last year too. It was all updated in one big chunk. -
GTB invite- July (Nagoya) 2024 - Results!!! - 204 entries
Wakawakawaka replied to Kintamayama's topic in Sumo Games
I believe I researched that question before, and IIRC the answer was there has never been 2 identical submissions in a game of GTB. I did get that right, and my logic was they wouldn't want to put Kagayaki right behind Chiyoshoma (the former being 1.5 ranks lower and with 1 fewer win than the latter) ____________ In regards to the GTB yusho... I'd like to thank my supporters, I tried not to think about the yusho, I just wanted to give it my all, taking it one guess at a time, and doing my brand of GTB. My goal now is to train hard and perform in a way that humbly honors the dignity of the top rank. :) -
Just did a quick tally of Koto(nowaka/zakura)'s matches since becoming Sanyaku. My categories are surely highly subjective, but nevertheless... 'Pushers' (Onosho/Hokutofuji/etc.) 14-7 'Thrusters' (Daiesho/Abi/etc.) 26-8 'Yotsu' (Wakamotoharu/Hoshoryu/etc.) 20-21 'Chaos agents' (Midorifuji/Ura/etc.) 23-9 'Mixed style' (Takayasu/etc.) 6-1
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He excels at being rather immobile. Pushers have a hard time moving him, and he doesn't move himself enough to overcommit and slip up against chaos agents.
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Think Onosato is hurt or just trying something new? His style seems different than it has been the past 2 tournaments.
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Haru 2024 Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk
Wakawakawaka replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Terunofuji's 13-2 got him from M17 to M1e. -
Whoever was doing commentary on Grand Sumo Highlights that day mentioned the connection. That's how I at least found out Terutsuyoshi retired.
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He's the life of the party when featured on Dosukoi Sumo Salon, always smiling and joking! Looks like Ura paid some tribute to him today with Ashitori win :P