Nagoya Ozeki Promotion Tracking (Daiesho, Hosoryu, Wakmotoharu)

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The last thing I'll say on the topic is this: if Takakeishō could be denied promotion despite hitting 33, just because he looked terrible in his last bout against Gōeidō, I doubt a serial henka practitioner would get a pass regardless of his score.

It may not be purely subjective, but it's not purely objective in that 33/3 is a surefire promotion, either. I'd rather think that 33/3 as junior sanyaku is a necessary but insufficient condition for promotion, where it triggers the powers that be to look at the candidate's sumo and decide if he's worthy of promotion.

No, there is no official rule. 33 just seems to be a convenient number of wins that usually results in a promotion while anything less usually doesn't. This thread exists for us to anticipate possible promotions, and refusing to count wins while chanting "Kyokai works in mysterious ways" doesn't help much.

[I am the Yokozuna 186]

Hope that all of them get promoted at some point - they have shown ozeki level sumo for some quite time. In my mind, the danger of having only one or none ozekis is just two bashos away and the situation should be used while it lasts to get as many as possible. Kirishima's sumo suggests that he might get promoted, while Takakeisho's might get demoted soon enough. 

11 wins by all of them should be fine in my opinion. 

[sumojoann 1,256]

Can you imagine how exciting it would be if all 3 of them were to be promoted to Ozeki after the Nagoya basho?  I doubt if this will happen because the committee that decides would all have to be in agreement that they are all equally deserving.  Their overall results histories and experience are all quite different.  However, as we know, each had excellent results during the last 2 basho (Daieisho during the last 3 basho).  I think it's all going to come down to not only if they meet the so-called "minimum" number of necessary wins, but as we've seen in the past, how much weight they committee puts on past results, specifically consistency.  In addition, the NSK wants to make sure they don't end up with "career Ozeki."  Much of this has already been discussed, I know.

Barring injury and assuming they all achieve the so-called "minimum" number of necessary wins, I think Wakamotoharu has the best chance of being promoted.  It's hard to believe that he debuted in Makuuchi in Jan 2022.  He has noticeably improved in each basho, has come out from under the shadow of his brother, has had only one MK since his Makuuchi debut, has otherwise achieved minimum scores of 9-6 (no 8-7's), several 10-5's and one 11-4.  He also exhibits a calm, confident manner and seems mature.  I admire his consistency and if he does well in Nagoya, I believe the committee will agree that he deserves to be promoted.

Hoshoryu has a lot of potential but has achieved double digits only 4 times in the past 2 and 1/2 years.  On a positive note, his last MK was way back in Nov 2020, but he's had a lot of 8-7's since then.  He seems more mature, and though exciting to watch, I think the promotion committee will wait for another basho to see if he can maintain consistent results.

Daieisho is difficult for me to venture an opinion on.  A veteran (debuted in Makuuchi in Sept 2015), with one Yusho, one Jun-Yusho, 2 kinboshi and numerous Special Prizes, plus good results the past 3 basho, he would seem the ideal candidate to be promoted.  However, one can't overlook the MK's and the barely KK's.  Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on consistency, but as I mentioned in my first paragraph, I think the committee that makes the promotion decisions want rikishi that can ultimately go beyond being "professional Ozeki."  I'm not so sure that Daieisho meets this criteria.

I wish them all the best of luck.  Nagoya is going to be a treat for all of us.

 

 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

21 minutes ago, sumojoann said:

In addition, the NSK wants to make sure they don't end up with "career Ozeki." 

Let's be realistic here: the only potential Yokozuna among the 3 current Ozeki candidates is Hoshoryu - and only because of his age, pedigree and versatility. The other 2 are turning 30 this year - and their window of opportunity is very short.

But there is nothing wrong with "career Ozeki" - as long as they don't drop out of the rank within a year or descend into Shodai-level mediocrity. 

[Asashosakari 18,786]

41 minutes ago, sumojoann said:

Can you imagine how exciting it would be if all 3 of them were to be promoted to Ozeki after the Nagoya basho?  I doubt if this will happen because the committee that decides would all have to be in agreement that they are all equally deserving.

No, they don't need to be equally deserving, each just needs to be deserving enough. That's not the same thing. They're not gonna reject Daieisho with 12 just because Hoshoryu won 15.
 

Quote

In addition, the NSK wants to make sure they don't end up with "career Ozeki."

Where did you get that idea from? That makes no sense at all. If they didn't want career ozeki, the expectation for promotion would be a lot higher than 33 wins in three basho.

Fans, especially in less informed realms, keep acting as though the only acceptable ozeki is one that is good enough to become yokozuna. It has never been true in the modern history of sumo, and the powers that be have never even acted as though it might be true. Please don't perpetuate that myth here.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Asashosakari

[Akinomaki 39,770]

The point is all three are on a proper ozeki run, officially announced and without any problematic prior results in the last two basho. Everybody knows that the yardstick is 33 and double digits in  all three basho, everybody will count and know that if they reach the target, they definitely get promoted.

Only if the top shimpan emphasizes before the basho that it MUST be with high quality sumo all the way, a henka has any influence in such cases.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

The point is all three are on a proper ozeki run, officially announced and without any problematic prior results in the last two basho.

Which begs the question: has that ever happened before? I guess not.

[Gusoyama 95]

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Fans, especially in less informed realms, keep acting as though the only acceptable ozeki is one that is good enough to become yokozuna. It has never been true in the modern history of sumo, and the powers that be have never even acted as though it might be true. Please don't perpetuate that myth here.

I think it's interesting, you can kind of see who's been around long enough to see Kaio/Chiyotaikai.  Consummate "career Ozeki" but absolutely not failures.  But then again, I'm not in the "Ozeki must score 10 wins each basho or they're failures" crowd either. 

[Reonito 1,335]

11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah but the thought experiment is this: If someone scored >50% of wins with henka and hit 35 wins, would the NSK agree to promote him? Somehow, I highly doubt so. It's an extreme example, but it serves to tease out whether ōzeki promotion is purely a numbers game - which I think we agree it's not always.

Remember Haru 2019, when Ichinojo out of nowhere started to pull everyone down straight out of the tachiai, and ended up with a 14-1 J with like half the wins by hatakikomi? If he'd followed it up with a couple more similar basho, I have no doubt he would've been ozeki.

[Gurowake 3,915]

3 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Which begs the question: has that ever happened before? I guess not.

What about Kisenosato/Kakuryu/Kotoshogiku?  They were all 3 Sekiwake for multiple basho.  I suppose since their promotions were over 4 basho there might not have been a time where all three might have gotten promoted. 

[Katooshu 3,135]

I think the 'content' of sumo and one's hinkaku are irrelevant or at best tiny considerations when someone has put up strong results. For a borderline case, I can see it, but 35 wins is getting promoted for sure in my opinion, even if they are a henka-ing bad boy. 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Katooshu

[Yamanashi 3,724]

4 hours ago, Gusoyama said:

I think it's interesting, you can kind of see who's been around long enough to see Kaio/Chiyotaikai.  Consummate "career Ozeki" but absolutely not failures.  But then again, I'm not in the "Ozeki must score 10 wins each basho or they're failures" crowd either. 

Pardon my ignorance, but I was told that a Yokozuna is a special Ozeki, not that an Ozeki is a failed Yokozuna.  There are precious few men who make it to Ozeki (and no further) -- about 60 since 1900.  How many rikishi during that period would have sold their soul to become a "career Ozeki"?

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

I think the 'content' of sumo and one's hinkaku are irrelevant or at best tiny considerations when someone has put up strong results. For a borderline case, I can see it, but 35 wins is getting promoted for sure in my opinion, even if they are a henka-ing bad boy. 

And if the NSK cared, the rikishi would get a talking to long before it came to ozeki promotion.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

And if the NSK cared, the rikishi would get a talking to long before it came to ozeki promotion.

[I agree, but I'm out of reactions, so consider yourself "liked"]

[Gusoyama 95]

51 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Pardon my ignorance, but I was told that a Yokozuna is a special Ozeki, not that an Ozeki is a failed Yokozuna.  There are precious few men who make it to Ozeki (and no further) -- about 60 since 1900.  How many rikishi during that period would have sold their soul to become a "career Ozeki"?

Absolutely true.  I was referring to the "the NSK wants to make sure they don't end up with "career Ozeki." comment made earlier

[maglor 122]

On 29/06/2023 at 13:28, Bunbukuchagama said:

We already have 2 Ozeki, none of them kadoban, Teru seems to be healthy (by his standards) - I don't see why the winds should be favourable for a "soft" Ozeki promotion right now.

Why should we assume promotions rely on the number of Ozeki?

Terunofuji got a pretty soft promotion 8-13-12 with the 8 coming from M2 at a time when we already had 3 Yokozuna and 3 Ozeki.

Takanohana was not promoted on a somewhat comparable 8-14-10(all from sanyaku) when we only had 2 Ozeki and no Yokozuna

 

I keep seeing people taking for granted that less ozeki means softer promotions but i've never seen it proved. if it is indeed the case i'd be interested in seeing the evidence.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 minute ago, maglor said:

Why should we assume promotions rely on the number of Ozeki?

Terunofuji got a pretty soft promotion 8-13-12 with the 8 coming from M2 at a time when we already had 3 Yokozuna and 3 Ozeki.

Takanohana was not promoted on a somewhat comparable 8-14-10(all from sanyaku) when we only had 2 Ozeki and no Yokozuna

 

I keep seeing people taking for granted that less ozeki means softer promotions but i've never seen it proved. if it is indeed the case i'd be interested in seeing the evidence.

The required minimum of Y/O on the banzuke is 2;  maintaining this number could theoretically result in promoting an "emergency" Ozeki - and such danger looked quite real not that long ago. Obviously, it might have resulted in a soft promotion. 

Daieisho was already sitting at 10-12-10 after Natsu - but his promotion wasn't even considered, as far as I understand. I don't see why NSK would suddenly change course that quickly. 

[robnplunder 974]

17 hours ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

Hope that all of them get promoted at some point - they have shown ozeki level sumo for some quite time. In my mind, the danger of having only one or none ozekis is just two bashos away and the situation should be used while it lasts to get as many as possible. Kirishima's sumo suggests that he might get promoted, while Takakeisho's might get demoted soon enough. 

11 wins by all of them should be fine in my opinion. 

11 wins by all 3 is going to be a minor miracle IMO.  They went 10-10-11 in the last basho which I thought was very impressive.  For the same three to go 11-11-11 or better means they all need to run the table (or close) before starting to face each other, Teru, Kiri, and Taka.  I have a feeling that only one would get 11+ wins.  Let it be my personal choice, Daieiso.  This may be his best chance.  

Edited June 30, 2023 by robnplunder

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 minute ago, robnplunder said:

11 wins by all 3 is going to be a minor miracle IMO.  They went 10-10-11 in the last basho which I thought was very impressive.  For the same three to go 11-11-11 or better means they all need to run the table before starting to face each other, Teru, Kiri, and Taka.  I have a feeling that only one would get 11+ wins.  Let it be my personal choice, Daieiso.  This may be his best chance.  

It is theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely. First, they will cannibalize each other's wins; second, we have a Yokozuna who is undefeated against two of them; then, there is Kirishima, Asanoyama, Abi and possibly Takayasu (if he performs well). The rest of joi might be weak, but the above-mentioned rikishi should manage to make their task very challenging. 

[Reonito 1,335]

45 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

It is theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely. First, they will cannibalize each other's wins; second, we have a Yokozuna who is undefeated against two of them; then, there is Kirishima, Asanoyama, Abi and possibly Takayasu (if he performs well). The rest of joi might be weak, but the above-mentioned rikishi should manage to make their task very challenging. 

It's rare, but we've seen 11+ wins by 3 san'yaku rikishi a couple of times recently, including in March, when Kiri and Daieisho had 12, Waka 11, and Hoshoryu 10. Of course, that was without the Yokozuna.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

43 minutes ago, Reonito said:

It's rare, but we've seen 11+ wins by 3 san'yaku rikishi a couple of times recently, including in March, when Kiri and Daieisho had 12, Waka 11, and Hoshoryu 10. Of course, that was without the Yokozuna.

...And Takakeisho dropped out, and Wakataka fought through injury...

[Reonito 1,335]

10 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

...And Takakeisho dropped out, and Wakataka fought through injury...

Indeed.

[I am the Yokozuna 186]

Well, my point was that not that it is possible for all of them to get promoted, but rather that there won't be soon enough a similar chance of promoting multiple rikishis.Pure mathematically, one of them could go 15-0, one 14-1 and one 13-2. Would it happen? Hello, no, but still they have their own chances. Post-promotion oozekis usually score low, Terufoji might not be so motivated this time around, Takekeisho might be still not at 100% and super pumped, so there is a chance of a promotion. Even one of them getting promoted would be a great achievement. 

[Koorifuu 886]

Hoshoryu's two fusensho at Natsu cast realistic doubts on whether he'd be asked for a bit extra for Nagoya.

Glad to see that this wasn't the case, definitely helped by his immaculate KK history at sekiwake - including gambarising through a midbasho injury in Hatsu that arguably derailed a prospective run - starting from Kyushu '22, he was 17-6 at that point.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Hoshoryu's two fusensho at Natsu cast realistic doubts on whether he'd be asked for a bit extra for Nagoya.

Glad to see that this wasn't the case, definitely helped by his immaculate KK history at sekiwake - including gambarising through a midbasho injury in Hatsu that arguably derailed a prospective run - starting from Kyushu '22, he was 17-6 at that point.

A win is a win, you cannot blame a man for being lucky. 

Edited July 1, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama