2021 "Kozumo" Hatsu Basho discussion thread

[Kintamayama 45,628]

11 minutes ago, dada78641 said:

I

Looking at news articles, they just don't mention the hairpull. It's all about how brilliantly he maneuvered at the edge. Maybe I've missed a mainstream news article somewhere, let me know if I did.

Not a word. Not even Chris sumo. Makes me think maybe we foreign fans don't get it sometimes. 

[Kintamayama 45,628]

Shouldn't Terunofuji be on an Ozeki run? Yes, I thought, just like you, no way. Way. 2 more wins give him 33 in the last three bashos. But wait.. The first basho was in Maegashira and he got 8 wins. No way. Way. When he first made it to Ozeki, he had 8 wins from maegashira. OK, no yusho this time, but the numbers are there. Mjyabiyama, yeah. But still, worth at least the mention, no? Next basho he needs ten wins if he wins 1 of his 2 remaining bouts. Well? 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Kintamayama

[dada78641 884]

10 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Can't get on the dohyo - not the right gender. 

But I think I could still defeat Shonanzakura though 

This should be a TV show, to see if regular people can defeat the worst sumo wrestler.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

2 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Not a word. Not even Chris sumo. Makes me think maybe we foreign fans don't get it sometimes. 

There were plenty of comments in the chatrooms for mbovo & karla.  But the fact that the mainstream Japanese media (not to mention Chris Sumo) are ignoring it makes me, for one, feel like the online sumo army has its hands on classified information.  Sort of feels good...

[Eikokurai 3,437]

10 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Shouldn't Terunofuji be on an Ozeki run? Yes, I thought, just like you, no way. Way. 2 more wins give him 33 in the last three bashos. But wait.. The first basho was in Maegashira and he got 8 wins. No way. Way. When he first made it to Ozeki, he had 8 wins from maegashira. OK, no yusho this time, but the numbers are there. Mjyabiyama, yeah. But still, worth at least the mention, no? Next basho he needs ten wins if he wins 1 of his 2 remaining bouts. Well? 

I seem to have been the only one whose mentioned it so far this basho. All attention has been on Daieisho's yusho charge, Takakeisho's choke and the two Ozeki clearing kadoban. I reckon one more win is needed to guarantee Terunofuji's run continues into March (9-6 seldom seems enough for the kyokai). 23/30 puts him within ten wins of an Ozeki return in May.

[Kintamayama 45,628]

21 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

There were plenty of comments in the chatrooms for mbovo & karla.  But the fact that the mainstream Japanese media (not to mention Chris Sumo) are ignoring it makes me, for one, feel like the online sumo army has its hands on classified information.  Sort of feels good...

Or, it’s simply a non-issue and there is something we foreign fans collectively don’t get. I don’t remember any issue  talked about so much by us that was so totally ignored by the press.

[shumitto 418]

30 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Shouldn't Terunofuji be on an Ozeki run? 

Maybe they are not in the mood. Baruto managed a very decent Ozeki run,  but they made him work a bit more just because. My very uneducated guess is that an insider tips the press that so-and-so is being regarded as a likely Ozeki candidate and only then they publish it. If you are a journalist, it is not your job to ask questions no one has asked you to. At least, in a couple of places I lived it works like this. 

As a side note, I think everyone saw that hair pull, and with some practice you don't even need a slow-mo replay, but it is better to look the other way. Or as Murray Johnson said after a famous Ozeki got his 8 on senshuraku in a very lethargic bout : "some things are better left unsaid". 

But today was a happy day. Fujiazuma has finally put an end to his 23-bout losing streak.

 

[dingo 1,305]

37 minutes ago, shumitto said:

Maybe they are not in the mood. Baruto managed a very decent Ozeki run,  but they made him work a bit more just because. My very uneducated guess is that an insider tips the press that so-and-so is being regarded as a likely Ozeki candidate and only then they publish it. If you are a journalist, it is not your job to ask questions no one has asked you to. At least, in a couple of places I lived it works like this.

 

In my similarly uneducated guess they might want to see more of Terunofujis ability to sustain ozeki level sumo. Especially considering how badly he was hurt and noone except himself knows exactly how good his health really is. So taking that into account 8 wins wouldn't be the best start for a re-promotion run. If he gets double digit wins 3 basho in a row then the Kyokai won't really be able to argue against it. Unless they do...

[pricklypomegranate 730]

1 hour ago, dada78641 said:

This should be a TV show, to see if regular people can defeat the worst sumo wrestler.

A TV Show I would definitely watch is one suggested by Terutsuyoshi in an interview with Enho. It's called "Small Soldiers Go" where the two of them go to interesting places together. Terutsuyoshi suggested that the first location would be a haunted house, but Enho was not so keen on the idea. I'm not sure how scary Japanese haunted houses are, but it's hard to see Enho maintaining his composure if inside one. 

Unfortunately, Terutsuyoshi secured himself a MK today. At M12, he'll likely be demoted below Midorifuji's current M14 rank - he has his moments but I don't consider him a particularly innovative rikishi, despite his small size. Who knows, perhaps Midorifuji will outshine even him. I am feeling good with Midorifuji, but am afraid that his reliance on katasukashi might be exploited by more thoughtful or experienced rikishi. 

[Iwayama 25]

37 minutes ago, shumitto said:

Maybe they are not in the mood. Baruto managed a very decent Ozeki run,  but they made him work a bit more just because. My very uneducated guess is that an insider tips the press that so-and-so is being regarded as a likely Ozeki candidate and only then they publish it. If you are a journalist, it is not your job to ask questions no one has asked you to. At least, in a couple of places I lived it works like this.

I'm curious if his 8-5-2 record from September is delaying a promotion. Going kyujo after getting his KK was the smart move, it saved his knees which most likely contributed to his impressive 13-2 in November, but it's not the most stable of foundations for an Ozeki run. 

[shumitto 418]

5 minutes ago, dingo said:

In my similarly uneducated guess they might want to see more of Terunofujis ability to sustain ozeki level sumo. Especially considering how badly he was hurt and noone except himself knows exactly how good his health really is. So taking that into account 8 wins wouldn't be the best start for a re-promotion run. If he gets double digit wins 3 basho in a row then the Kyokai won't really be able to argue against it. Unless they do...

That's a very good reason not to promote him outright, but at least the conversation should have been brought up methinks. Maybe I am not reading the right papers.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

No way is Terunofuji’s 8-5-2 basho counting toward an Ozeki run. It’s not only the minimum kachikoshi but he didn’t even make it to senshuraku. The basho before was also far too low down the banzuke for it to be considered, yusho or not. Moreover, even counting the 8 wins in Sept, he’s not able to make 33/45 anyway. The best he can manage this time is 11-4 which would put him at 32/45. Nowhere near good enough to make a case for promotion.

He’s in the middle basho of an Ozeki run right now. Double-digits in March will clinch it.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Eikokurai
Sept not Nov

[Kashunowaka 300]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

Shouldn't Terunofuji be on an Ozeki run? Yes, I thought, just like you, no way. Way. 2 more wins give him 33 in the last three bashos. But wait.. The first basho was in Maegashira and he got 8 wins. No way. Way. When he first made it to Ozeki, he had 8 wins from maegashira. OK, no yusho this time, but the numbers are there. Mjyabiyama, yeah. But still, worth at least the mention, no? Next basho he needs ten wins if he wins 1 of his 2 remaining bouts. Well? 

8 + 13 + 11 = 32

4 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

No way is Terunofuji’s 8-5-2 basho counting toward an Ozeki run. It’s not only the minimum kachikoshi but he didn’t even make it to senshuraku. The basho before was also far too low down the banzuke for it to be considered, yusho or not. Moreover, even counting the 8 wins in Nov, he’s not able to make 33/45 anyway. The best he can manage this time is 11-4 which would put him at 32/45. Nowhere near good enough to make a case for promotion.

He’s in the middle basho of an Ozeki run right now. Double-digits in March will clinch it.

If Terunofuji had gone 12-3 this basho, I think that he would have been promoted to ozeki. It would be quite similar numbers compared to his last promotion, and I don't see why 8-5-2 would be treated differently than 8-7. They could decide to raise the bar for a second promotion like they did with Miyabiyama, but the latter had a really poor ozeki career compared to Terunofuji.

[Jakusotsu 6,056]

3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I don’t remember any issue  talked about so much by us that was so totally ignored by the press.

Really? I remember quite a few, if only I could remember the details...

[code_number3 708]

11 hours ago, Ichimawashi said:

Nine man playoff: three tomoesen then a final tomoesen?  Or one tomoesen and three head-to-heads leading to four remaining and semifinals?

 

 

8 hours ago, Naganoyama said:

Last time we saw a nine man play-off, it was done the way @WAKATAKE said.

- Drawing of lots - one man gets a bye - eight-man elimination round.

- Drawing of lots - one man gets a bye - four-man elimination round.

- Tomoe-sen.

 

Is it more certain if they have 9 (2 rikishis are drawn, the winner goes to 8-man playoff) -> 8-man elimination play-off? We'll have a lot of playoff this basho, and this kind of format guaranteed 8 (no more, no less, unless the match has to be torinaoshi-ed or some fusen during playoff) makushita playoff matches.

Remember, NHK must show their 6PM news and then Sekai-no-ima at 6.05 

Another extra thought: they can start final day much earlier than usual so they can use any format they want for makushita playoff. So, like @Ichimawashi had said "three tomoesen then a final tomoesen"? Those playoffs will gonna be endless lol.

Edited January 22, 2021 by code_number3
Had an extra thought, sumimasen

[Kintamayama 45,628]

40 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Really? I remember quite a few, if only I could remember the details...

Sure, certain henka said etc but not like this.

[Kashunowaka 300]

How about Kitaharima's henka against Wakayama? I can't say that I generally approve of henka, but I thought that was quite hilarious and well executed.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Kashunowaka

[Kintamayama 45,628]

2 hours ago, Kashunowaka said:

8 + 13 + 11 = 32

If Terunofuji had gone 12-3 this basho, I think that he would have been promoted to ozeki. It would be quite similar numbers compared to his last promotion, and I don't see why 8-5-2 would be treated differently than 8-7. They could decide to raise the bar for a second promotion like they did with Miyabiyama, but the latter had a really poor ozeki career compared to Terunofuji.

I agree. He can only get 32 now, but nobody here or in the Kyokai even mentioned the remote possibility that he could be on an Ozeki run, which is strange, as we usually hear about run possibilities endlessly. That is what is strange to me.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Jakusotsu 6,056]

3 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

No way is Terunofuji’s 8-5-2 basho counting toward an Ozeki run.

This, I guess. There seems to be whole lot of difference between 8-7 (like on his first run) and 8-5-2. And the Miyabiyama factor of course.

[Kintamayama 45,628]

3 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

No way is Terunofuji’s 8-5-2 basho counting toward an Ozeki run. It’s not only the minimum kachikoshi but he didn’t even make it to senshuraku. The basho before was also far too low down the banzuke for it to be considered, yusho or not. Moreover, even counting the 8 wins in Sept, he’s not able to make 33/45 anyway. The best he can manage this time is 11-4 which would put him at 32/45. Nowhere near good enough to make a case for promotion.

He’s in the middle basho of an Ozeki run right now. Double-digits in March will clinch it.

And if he had gone 12-3? How about 13-2? Again, it could have at least been talked about pre-basho, like if he gets a good yusho etc.  Unless you are saying that even a 14-1 yusho would not have been enough.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Jakusotsu 6,056]

Hypothetical question: What if some Ozeki-runner assembles the numbers, but goes, say, 11-4, 12-3 Y, 10-4-1 with an absence on the final day. Would he get promoted?

[Kintamayama 45,628]

8 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

This, I guess. There seems to be whole lot of difference between 8-7 (like on his first run) and 8-5-2. And the Miyabiyama factor of course.

Why is that? I don’t see the difference. Are there precedents that partial kyujo was a valid starting point for a run?

Edited January 22, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Amamaniac 2,079]

Ozeki Watch for day 14

Since Takakeisho withdrew on day 10, we've seen two two-Ozeki sweeps out of three, today being one of the two sweeps.  That is better than two three-Ozeki sweeps seen in the first 10 days of this tournament, but still not up to par.  In today's sweep, Ozeki and yusho hopeful, Shodai, managed to secure another vital win against Takanosho, but once again he left it until he was on the bales, which once again required a shimpan review.  Talk about pushing (or "pulling" in this case) one's luck!

Tomorrow, Shodai is up first in the Ozeki rotation.  He faces the sympathetic fan-favourite, Terunofuji, who is doing everything his knees permit to keep his fairy tale re-promotion to Ozeki on track.  The Mongolian powerhouse currently sits at 9 wins and 4 losses.  Ten or 11 wins this tournament could expedite (or at least maintain the hope for) that re-promotion, and from his point of view, the sooner the better.  So you can bet that the "Terror" will be focused on defeating Shodai, even if that means spoiling the beautiful balance at the top of the leaderboard.  The head-to-head record of these two sekitori is pretty even, no matter how you slice it.  Overall (in the Top Division), they are 6-5, favouring Shodai.  Pre-"injury-and-banzuke-freefall" by Terunofuji, they were 3-4, favouring Terunofuji.  Then, there were two default wins in a row for Shodai, which we can ignore.  But since Terunofuji's return to Makuuchi, they have fought twice, and each wrestler has proven victorious once.

This is definitely the bout to watch tomorrow, especially if when Daieisho wins his bout.  Terunofuji will be hungry for rapid re-promotion to Ozeki, and Shodai will be hungry to remain at the top of the leaderboard in this tournament, and potentially move closer to promotion to Yokozuna (#dreamsmatter).  Shodai will need to show some of Daiesho's confidence tomorrow if he hopes to defeat Terunofuji.  But the way he has been fighting this tournament does not bode well for victory.  If for whatever reason, Daieisho loses to Tamawashi, then some of the pressure will fall from Shodai's shoulders, and he may be able to weather a black star in his bout.  IMHO, tomorrow's bout will be a bigger challenge for Shodai than his final-day bout against fellow Ozeki, Asanoyama.  Let's see if he can rise to the challenge.

In the musubi-no-ichiban final bout, Asanoyama locks horns with ... (wait?) M7e Meisei.  Asanoyama has already faced all the junior sanyaku men, and so he gets another rank-and-filer before he goes up against fellow Ozeki Shodai on the final day.  But Meisei is not just any rank-and-filer.  He has been a co-leader or runner-up trailer for eight out of 13 days so far.  Don't get me started about his unacknowledged win against front-runner Daieisho on day 12!  Despite losing to Onosho today, Meisei still represents a real threat to Asanoyama.  

Numerically, Asanoyama still has an outside chance at being in a playoff for the championship.  But that is only possible if Daiesho loses his remaining two bouts, and if Terunofuji can defeat Shodai tomorrow, and if Asanoyama can defeat Meisei tomorrow and Shodai on Sunday.  That's a tall order.  And by the time Asanoyama steps into the ring, he will know whether that order can even be entertained.  If either Daieisho or Shodai wins their respective bouts, the cards will be off the table.

Head-to-head, Asanoyama has a 3-1 lead against Meisei.  However, all those bouts were fought before Asanoyama became an Ozeki.  In fact, these two opponents haven't fought one another since November of 2019.  If Asanoyama fights like he fought today against Okinoumi, then there is little doubt that he will win.  But, and there is always a but, Meisei can be/is extremely feisty, and may just surprise the "backup" Ozeki.  And as soon as one of the two frontrunners wins their bouts tomorrow, Asanoyama's motivation may also dip.  

Tomorrow's Ozeki bouts give fans plenty of reason to watch.  This championship is going down to the wire, and for now, both active Ozeki are still in the mix.
 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Kintamayama 45,628]

3 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Hypothetical question: What if some Ozeki-runner assembles the numbers, but goes, say, 11-4, 12-3 Y, 10-4-1 with an absence on the final day. Would he get promoted?

For sure.

[Jakusotsu 6,056]

2 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Why is that? I don’t see the difference.

Let's just say sick-leaves don't speak in your favour when applying for a new job where reliability is a key requirement.