2021 "Kozumo" Hatsu Basho discussion thread

[Jakusotsu 5,869]

8 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Are there precedents that partial kyujo was a valid starting point for a run?

According to the almighty db, not in the "modern" era.

[Kashunowaka 300]

5 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

According to the almighty db, not in the "modern" era.

The interesting thing would be to see if there is any evidence of the opposite. It might just be a coincidence - after all, kachi-koshi records with absent days are not that common.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Kashunowaka

[Jakusotsu 5,869]

1 minute ago, Kashunowaka said:

The interesting thing would be to see if there is any evidence of the opposite. It might just be a coincidence - after all, kachi-koshi records with absent days are not that common.

I checked - there isn't one.

Oh, and while we're at it: why wasnt Takakeisho promoted in March 2019 after K 9-6, K 13-2 Y, S 11-4 J? Doesn't speak very strongly in Terunofuji's favour, even with a hypothetical 12-3 Y.

[mt fuji 976]

49 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

How about Kitaharima's henka against Wakayama? I can't say that I generally approve of henka, but I thought that was quite hilarious and well executed.

I really like his pre-bout ritual where he kinda scurries from the tawara up the shikiri-sen like he's going down an escalator. Tohakuryu has a consistent routine too and their match was pretty funny

[Highway 46]

My man Aoiyama makekoshi, seemed inevitable. I think he has lost strength. Every bout is the same. He pushes, but increasingly it is ineffective, then tries to pull, but again no strength to pull his opponent down. Is it age starting to knock on the door, or some other issue? If he has another bad tournament next basho he might be dropping out.

rooting for Daieisho to take it away. Shodai is doing well (luckily well) but I am more entertained by the former's sumo.

 

[Kotomiyama 165]

I really like how Hoshoryu and Midorifuji are adding kimarite variety to Makuuchi. You never know what to expect with them. I am partial to leg tricks in oozumo (uchigake, sotogake, kekaeshi...) and it seems to me that Hoshoryu is adept at them.

[Kashunowaka 300]

12 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

When Shodai finally retires from oozumo, he should probably get a job as an escape artist.  Unfortunately, he has relied on back-against-the-bales, last-minute techniques more than a few times (and many of those requiring a monoii review–today was yet another example) which smacks of desperation, albeit skilful desperation.

Pulling is just bad sumo, so if Shodai really wants to entertain promotion to Yokozuna, he is going to have to show more forward moving victories.  As much as it pains me to say this, Takakeisho shows better sumo (i.e., sumonaiyo) in the sense that he is almost always on the offensive.

Let's remember that Shodai is in his second basho as ozeki after withdrawing with an injury from the first one, so we could count this as his real debut. With that in mind I would argue that he is doing very well and is exceeding the expectations of most people. Very few rikishi are ready to become yokozuna after just a few bashos as ozeki.

[Ichimawashi 573]

The 9-man playoff format apparently done the last time this happened (1 bye, 8>4, 1 bye, 4>2, 3-way tomoesen) seems insane to me.  A lucky rikishi could get to the 3-way finale without fighting a single bout.  Why not just draw lots for the yusho, it wouldn't be much worse?

The easiest solution is obviously to draw numbers from 1-9, 1-2-3 are in a tomoesen, 4-5, 6-7, 8-9 are head to heads, reducing to 4 for semifinals.  You run the 1-2-3 tomoesen first so the winner can rest while the other three bouts take place.  You can even set up a bracket so no redraws are needed.

In tournament bridge, my real world job, we have a method of having three teams compete to eliminate one in the same time that others play head-to-head, and many four session knockouts go from 9 to 6 to 4 to 2, the first two rounds being 67% chance to advance.  Drawing for a bye is a silly option.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Ichimawashi

[Jakusotsu 5,869]

...or just do a Battle Royale and let all nine rush the dohyo at once. Last man standing wins.

[Katooshu 3,179]

Every method described so far (especially the 9-rik battle royale) seems better than the one they've actually used...

The gyoji should get a prize if he's still standing in the dohyo by the end of the battle royale 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Katooshu

[Onibushou 61]

15 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Shonanazukura loses number 82 straight today, which sets him for tying his own personal losing streak and the all time record of 89. Should he get to compete next basho and business goes as usual, he will at the end.

You never know, he could get an 8th match again

[Onibushou 61]

I seem to recall the person getting the first bye in a 9-way playoff can't also get the second one, but can't remember where that came from to confirm...

[Gurowake 4,011]

12 minutes ago, Onibushou said:

I seem to recall the person getting the first bye in a 9-way playoff can't also get the second one, but can't remember where that came from to confirm

I'm pretty sure this is true as well, but again I don't know where I've heard it.

[Gurowake 4,011]

17 minutes ago, Onibushou said:

You never know, he could get an 8th match again

He actually has. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=12268&b=202101

[Asashosakari 18,959]

35 minutes ago, Ichimawashi said:

The easiest solution is obviously to draw numbers from 1-9, 1-2-3 are in a tomoesen, 4-5, 6-7, 8-9 are head to heads, reducing to 4 for semifinals.  You run the 1-2-3 tomoesen first so the winner can rest while the other three bouts take place.  You can even set up a bracket so no redraws are needed.

You want to have a tomoe-sen match anywhere else than in the final round? Uh, no, just no.

[Highway 46]

Maybe we should celebrate the end of the coronavirus when it comes with a 30 man sumo royal rumble.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

7 hours ago, Kashunowaka said:

I don't see why 8-5-2 would be treated differently than 8-7

 

4 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Why is that? I don’t see the difference.

Because it’s never just about the numbers alone, is it? Context matters. That 8-5-2 was a weak basho by Terunofuji. He scraped across the kachikoshi line on day 13 and then immediately went kyujo. I don’t see the Kyokai looking on that favourably.

As for comparison to his first promotion, it’s been said before that the 8-7 barely factored in that one at all. The most it counted was that it was a kachikoshi, but he was actually promoted on the strength of his yusho and jun-yusho. This time around doesn’t compare.

Correction: He got his KK on day 12 and lost on day 13. Either way you look at it it wasn’t a basho where he displayed ‘Ozeki sumo’ enough to satisfy the Kyokai, at least by their usual standards.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Thorbjarn 214]

Kudos to both Daieisho and Shodai for hanging tough. Terunofuji needs one more win and a good tournament in March to get back to the promised land, others have already pointed out why he won't get promoted after this tournament. 

A Sumo battle royal... Imagine the tachiai... 

 

[bettega 431]

I dont think they will promote Teru with a 33 this time, maybe 4 basho above 10 wins? I hope that he gets 11 wins 

 

 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

2 minutes ago, bettega said:

I dont think they will promote Teru with a 33 this time, maybe 4 basho above 10 wins? I hope that he gets 11 wins 

 

 

He can’t get 33 wins this time. Best he can manage now is 32.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,261]

There is always the line of thought that if Terunofuji is capable to be Ozeki then he won't have a problem collecting the wins at Haru.

To be honest I didn't think he'd be rattling off KKs at Sekiwake anyway, I thought at best he'd float around mid maegashira. Despite his recent performance though its obvious that his sumo isn't as powerful or indomitable as before. Yet, he still manages to win at the top. In a way its kind of regretful, it would have been something else to seem him as Yokozuna with his full power. Not much you can do about bad knee genetics though.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

9 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

There is always the line of thought that if Terunofuji is capable to be Ozeki then he won't have a problem collecting the wins at Haru.

To be honest I didn't think he'd be rattling off KKs at Sekiwake anyway, I thought at best he'd float around mid maegashira. Despite his recent performance though its obvious that his sumo isn't as powerful or indomitable as before. Yet, he still manages to win at the top. In a way its kind of regretful, it would have been something else to seem him as Yokozuna with his full power. Not much you can do about bad knee genetics though.

A small part of me thinks he could still make it. He’s got the timing right. The two Yokozuna are fading and there isn’t anyone else who poses a consistent enough threat to block his path to the top. He may just have lucked out on his resurgence coinciding with the decline of Hakuho and Kakuryu.

[Yamanashi 3,771]

3 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Every method described so far (especially the 9-rik battle royale) seems better than the one they've actually used...

The gyoji should get a prize if he's still standing in the dohyo by the end of the battle royale 

How about: ranked 1-9 by current rank; #1 gets a bye, while 2-9, 3-8, 4-7, 5-6; winner of 2-9 gets a bye while 1-(winner of 5-6), (winner of 3-8) - (winner of 4-7); last winner gets a bye while first two fight; winner of that vs the bye.  A total of 8 bouts.

[Gurowake 4,011]

I think their strategy is just:

2 - ketteisen

3 - tomoesen

More than 3 - pair everyone, give one bye if needed, then repeat until 2 or 3 are left.

Doesn't matter how many people are in it, that's the plan.  It's predictable from the initial number what the plan later will be, but there's no need for extra rules for every number.

Also, a tomosen gives a very slight advantage to the 2 people in the first bout, but it's only an advantage to the loser, who needs the 3rd participant to win to be able to make use of it.  Assuming all are equally matched, each rikishi has a 1/4 chance to win in the initial 2 or 3 bouts, and there's a 1/4 chance of it continuing.  If it continues, the first bout's loser wins 1/2 of the remaining time, while the first bout's winner has a 1/4 chance and the first bout absentee has a 1/8 chance, with a 1/8 chance of it continuing with the same probabilities as the first continuation.  So the continuation 1/4 is distributed 4 parts to the first bout loser, 2 parts to the first bout winner, and 1 part to the third rikishi, and doing the math shows the denominator is 28.  So first bout loser has a 4/28 + 1/4 = 11/28 total chance, first bout winner 2/28 + 1/4 = 9/28, and first bout absentee 1/28 + 1/4 = 8/28.  Since if you're in the first match there's a 50% chance you'll win, the average chance for someone in the first match is the straight average of the two participants, or 10/28.  Thus if all are evenly matched, the rikishi in the first bout have a 5/14 chance to win while the other rikishi has a 2/7 chance.  It is left as an exercise for the reader to determine the probability the loser of the first bout, given they have lost that first bout, goes on to win.

No doubt this is seen as fair enough to make the average tomoesen shorter than it would be if the entire first round was scrapped if everyone won one bout.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Gurowake

[WAKATAKE 2,644]

I think y'all that are even talking about Terunofuji having a sniffles chance of being promoted this basho to ozeki have been drinking or smoking something. In my opinion a single digit KK is a very hard one to consider to be on an ozeki run, especially in Teru's case. For all we know the NSK may be holding him to the same standard as Miyabiyama, they didn't promote him after 34 wins. Should he get 10 wins this basho, I would consider next basho to be the test for him to see if they promote him or not.