Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2019

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I personally see Kotonowaka-Wakamotoharu as a straight up exchange match and the J10s as safe because who would replace them would not have strong enough records.

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The final records of the former sekitori.

new KK: Irodori, Toyohibiki, Takaryu

new MK: Chiyoarashi, Kitaharima, Yamaguchi
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out HiRk M# J#
5-2 Ms1e Seiro Shikoroyama 30 1 M14 3 30
4-3 Ms1w Irodori Shikoroyama 27 1 J13   1
2-5 Ms2e Daiseido Kise 26 2 J12   3
3-4 Ms3w Churanoumi Kise 25 1 J14   2
3-4 Ms4e Chiyootori Kokonoe 26 10 K 19 16
2-5 Ms5e Fujiazuma Tamanoi 32 14 M4 17 18
5-2 Ms5w Wakamotoharu Arashio 25 2 J10   1
 
kyujo Ms6e Chiyonokuni Kokonoe 29 1 M1 25 16
6-1 Ms7e Akua Tatsunami 28 5 J14   2
2-5 Ms10e Hakuyozan Takadagawa 24 1 J3   6
3-4 Ms11e Kizenryu Kise 34 6 J11   9
5-2 Ms13e Asabenkei Takasago 30 7 J7   7
4-3 Ms13w Toyohibiki Sakaigawa 34 9 M2 52 14
3-4 Ms14w Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 28 36 J10   4
 
2-5 Ms17w Jokoryu Kise 30 3 K 15 13
0-4-3 Ms21w Masunoyama Chiganoura 28 26 M4 13 12
5-2 Ms22e Sakigake Shibatayama 33 27 J10   5
3-4 Ms23w Kitaharima Yamahibiki 32 11 M15 1 24
4-3 Ms28w Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 37 32 M9 6 22
3-4 Ms30e Nionoumi Yamahibiki 32 36 M16 1 12
 
2-5 Ms31e Tokushinho Kise 35 22 J6   27
3-4 Ms32w Asahisho Tomozuna 29 13 M11 4 30
5-2 Ms39w Higonojo Kise 34 31 J9   4
4-3 Ms40w Takaryu Kise 27 24 J13   1
7-0 Ms41w Chiyonoo Kokonoe 28 4 M15 2 31
5-2 Ms49e Kagamio Kagamiyama 31 19 M9 7 14
5-2 Ms53w Gokushindo Nishikido 23 4 J13   1
5-2 Ms57e Keitenkai Onomatsu 29 41 J11   1
6-1 Ms59e Terunofuji Isegahama 27 7 O 24 5
 
4-3 Sd37e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 42 29 M12 3 18
4-3 Sd38w Kaonishiki Azumazeki 40 47 J6   2
5-2 Sd49w Amakaze Oguruma 28 8 M13 1 18
5-2 Sd53e Dairaido Takadagawa 39 77 J2   6
3-4 Sd71w Yamaguchi Miyagino 30 9 M16 1 18
kyujo Sd76w Ura Kise 27 9 M4 5 6
 
6-1 Jd14e Homarefuji Isegahama 34 6 M6 10 28
5-2 Jd27w Hitenryu Tatsunami 35 47 J13   2

 

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Over on the english side one of the commentators was talking about how they used to add extra sanyaku spots in the past and wished they'd add one more because of how bad the ozeki are doing and because of that Abi/Hokutofuji/ Endo situation. I don't really trust those guys about banzuke matters, and I thought extra spots would require at least ten wins to be created so I thought it'd be better to ask the banzuke specialists over there.

What do you think ? Abi and Endo as Komusubi and Hokutofuji unlucky again moving to M1E ? I know they stopped adding extra komusubi spots a while ago so I don't really know how it works but could they promote Hokutofuji and create and extra spot for Endo ? Today's match up between the two looked like a battle for the spot but I'm asking just in case...

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16 hours ago, shumitto said:

Gagamaru has looked particularly impressive on their way back to upper juryo, so no surprise they will see their ranks heading south next time.

Broken bone in the foot, massive pain. If it's the wrong bone it will be not a matter of just 2 weeks to heal. We will see Gagamaru in Makushita pretty soon.

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4 hours ago, Rainoyama said:

Abi and Endo as Komusubi and Hokutofuji unlucky again moving to M1E ?

Yes, that's the most likely scenario. In retrospect, Endo vs. Hokutofuji was a straightforward battle for the second Komusubi slot (because Abi got his KK against Kotoshogiku to save his own Komusubi rank). If Abi had lost his bout to go to 7-8, Hokutofuji would have been lucky, I guess.

Unfortunately, Hokutofuji's 9-6 record will be too weak to create an extra Komusubi slot. He probably will be tochinoshined to M1e.

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Posted (edited)

I changed my mind about the Makushita to Juryo promotion situation; I now expect that Wakamotoharu will take the place of Arawashi.   While I had considered it in making my previous statement that the J10s were safe, I feel now that the exact scenario happened that the 5-2 Ms5w will be good enough to bring down the 5-10 J10w.  There's still some uncertainty there though.

The other swaps are Aminishiki, Akiseyama and Ryuko for Seiro, Irodori, and Tamaki.  Any bets on whether Tamaki takes a real shikona?

Edited by Gurowake

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Posted (edited)

Likewise, the situation with demotions from Makuuchi is not completely clear beyond the obvious 3 swaps of Yoshikaze, Yago, and Kaisei for Ishiura, Yutakayama, and Tsurugisho.  Tochiozan's nominal rank target will appear on the banzuke and his best replacement is 8-7 J3e Chiyoshoma or 11-4 J8e Daiamami, the latter being better by the numbers, but there being a bias against promoting from so low in Juryo.  I suspect Tochiozan will stay.  As for Takagenji though, he's more likely to get dropped as his nominal rank will not exist and there's a pretty reasonable candidate in 9-6 J4w Takanosho (or again Daiamami by the numbers in theory).

Edited by Gurowake

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Likewise, the situation with demotions from Makuuchi is not completely clear beyond the obvious 3 swaps of Yoshikaze, Yago, and Kaisei for Ishiura, Yutakayama, and Tsurugisho.  Tochiozan's nominal rank target will appear on the banzuke and his best replacement is 8-7 J3e Chiyoshoma or 11-4 J8e Daiamami, the latter being better by the numbers, but there being a bias against promoting from so low in Juryo.  I suspect Tochiozan will stay.  As for Takagenji though, he's more likely to get dropped as his nominal rank will not exist and there's a pretty reasonable candidate in 9-6 J4w Takanosho (or again Daiamami by the numbers in theory).

J1W Azumaryu finished 8-7 didn't he ? Surely he is ahead of Chiyoshoma and maybe Daiamami ? Also can you explain what you call nominal rank please ? :)

Edited by Rainoyama

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Rainoyama said:

J1W Azumaryu finished 8-7 didn't he ? Surely he is ahead of Chiyoshoma and maybe Daiamami ? Also can you explain what you call nominal rank please ? :)

I forgot Chiyomaru and Azumaryu.  They will also be swapped.

Nominal, or "by-the-numbers" rank is what rank they would have if they were moved exactly one rank up for each win and one rank down for each loss or absence.  So Daiamami's nominal rank is J1E since he was at J8e and had 7 more wins than losses. It explains the vast majority of banzuke movements.  He will likely be ahead of Chiyoshoma if they are both in Juryo since Chiyoshoma has a nominal rank of J2E.  But since they don't like promoting from the lower half of Juryo, Chiyoshoma will likely be promoted before Daiamami.

Edited by Gurowake
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9 hours ago, Rainoyama said:

Over on the english side one of the commentators was talking about how they used to add extra sanyaku spots in the past and wished they'd add one more because of how bad the ozeki are doing and because of that Abi/Hokutofuji/ Endo situation. I don't really trust those guys about banzuke matters, and I thought extra spots would require at least ten wins to be created so I thought it'd be better to ask the banzuke specialists over there.

What do you think ? Abi and Endo as Komusubi and Hokutofuji unlucky again moving to M1E ? I know they stopped adding extra komusubi spots a while ago so I don't really know how it works but could they promote Hokutofuji and create and extra spot for Endo ? Today's match up between the two looked like a battle for the spot but I'm asking just in case...

This has already been covered by other posters, but I'll comment about the general idea of creating extra Komusubi spots.  I'm fairly sure the only way that an extra Komusubi spot would be created is if they had no other choice - a KK at M1e with no openings.  Then that leads to the question of what if it's an 8-7 and M1w is 9-6.  Doesn't seem all that fair, does it?  But that's what we've already seen happen to a 9-6 M1w.  The real question is when the M1w is 10-5 or perhaps even better if there's no room.  I can't say anything with any certainty, but I'm fairly sure that 11 wins would be more than enough from M1w and 10 might be enough.  For every full rank down you can probably add a win.  We haven't really seen anything that approaches that level of performance when there's a full sanyaku from everyone else.  It's far more likely that there will be a place for them, and that those outside the joi with records nominally good enough for promotion will be skipped over, like with Tomokaze this tournament.

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Posted (edited)

Looks like Asanoyama will have really bad banzuke luck next basho as well - this time under-promoted, next time over-demoted: Hokutofuji, Aoiyama, Ichinojo and Tomokaze are above him as maegashira - and even Daieisho could be.

Edited by Akinomaki
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

This has already been covered by other posters, but I'll comment about the general idea of creating extra Komusubi spots.  I'm fairly sure the only way that an extra Komusubi spot would be created is if they had no other choice - a KK at M1e with no openings.  Then that leads to the question of what if it's an 8-7 and M1w is 9-6.  Doesn't seem all that fair, does it?  But that's what we've already seen happen to a 9-6 M1w.  The real question is when the M1w is 10-5 or perhaps even better if there's no room.  I can't say anything with any certainty, but I'm fairly sure that 11 wins would be more than enough from M1w and 10 might be enough.  For every full rank down you can probably add a win.  We haven't really seen anything that approaches that level of performance when there's a full sanyaku from everyone else.  It's far more likely that there will be a place for them, and that those outside the joi with records nominally good enough for promotion will be skipped over, like with Tomokaze this tournament.

It could be that this kind of basho with all Ozeki gone 10 wouldn't be enough, but in a basho with 6 Y/O going the distance I could see 10-6 M1w going to K2.

I just get a bad taste in my mouth when trying to justify that stuff in that way though, because except for number of wins and banzuke position we don't know the banzuke making discussion so we can never judge our decisions made in that way. I know its popular to give more value to guys in the joi but who knows if that's really the reason, or it just happens that some oyakata has been getting favorable results so he has to give something up next time - if that is even a thing that happens at all.

For example when Tochinoshin came back up from injury and got shut out of sanyaku despite have by the numbers results many people thought this was because he tried to recover instead of just gambarizing. Then Ryuden got Komusubi over Asanoyama and people said he got it as a reward for coming back after sitting out for so long after injury. (note: I don't think it was the same set of people saying these two things but they were said)

I still get decisions wrong in GTB that don't require reading the tea leaves so maybe others have better insight or a sixth sense of committee thinking.

Edited by Tsuchinoninjin

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1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Looks like Asanoyama will have really bad banzuke luck next basho as well - this time under-promoted, next time over-demoted: Hokutofuji, Aoiyama, Ichinojo and Tomokaze are above him as maegashira - and even Daieisho could be.

That would be harsh indeed. I am no expert but I wouldn't be surprised to see them "protect" him and don't promote Ichinojo and Tomokaze as well as they can hope because they were outside of the top Joi-i zone unlike Asanoyama. Well at least they had an easier schedule overall.

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22 minutes ago, Rainoyama said:

That would be harsh indeed.

Harsh, perhaps, but this harshness might grant him a much easier schedule next time.

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1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Looks like Asanoyama will have really bad banzuke luck next basho as well - this time under-promoted, next time over-demoted: Hokutofuji, Aoiyama, Ichinojo and Tomokaze are above him as maegashira - and even Daieisho could be.

I wouldn't be too certain about that.  Someone's going to lose out big time, and it's more likely to be someone not in the joi.  With Hokutofuji and Aoiyama having effectively no choice of position, and assuming Daieisho should be lower than everyone under consideration but has to be promoted to at least M3e, then we have Ichinojo, Asanoyama, and Tomokaze vying for M2e, M2w, and M3w.  It's going to look terrible no matter who you put at M3w, so it wouldn't surprise me for them to foist it off on Tomokaze.  And while my first inclination is to put Ichinojo at M2e, I can see them thinking along the lines that Ichinojo didn't have a "real" joi schedule, particularly compared to Asanoyama, and combined with Asanoyama's only nominal half-rank difference by the numbers may put him ahead of Ichinojo.

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32 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Harsh, perhaps, but this harshness might grant him a much easier schedule next time.

Yes, I think Asanoyama will be fine with a bit of banzuke bad luck. 

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Posted (edited)

What's the demotion situation like for Kizakiumi with 7-8 at J13w?

Edited by Katooshu

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Posted (edited)

I have no particular problem with them not creating extra Komusubi or Sekiwake slots, so long as they regard the non-promoted rikishi’s new rank as ‘false’. By this I mean, if you get a KK at M1 or Komusubi, but there is no available Komusubi or Sekiwake slot to move into, for the next basho you should be considered a sort of ‘Komugashira’ or ‘Sekisubi’. This matters for Ozeki runs. A rikishi who puts up 33 wins as, say, M1>K>S should not have that held against them if the ranks were down to bad banzuke luck. The hitto and junior sanyaku do fight the same schedules after all. For example, Takakeisho’s official promotion series began with him at Komusubi East. He’d gotten a 9-6 at Komusubi West the basho before but both Sekiwake had good tournaments, so there was nowhere for him to go. In other words, he was a Sekiwake in all but name. That’s how it should be seen. Alas, the Kyokai demanded one more tournament out of him as a Sekiwake, so that 13-2 became the first basho in his Ozeki run, rather than the middle basho. I’d like to see rikishi hard done by get shown a little leniency in such situations. They did everything asked of them and their non-promotion was entirely out of their hands.

(For the record, I’m not ruling out the possibility of other things being at play here, such as his age, but there was a lot of debate at the time about him not getting the promotion after his first 33/45 run and the fact he was ‘only’ a Komusubi for two of the three basho was suggested as an important factor.)

Edited by Eikokurai
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41 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

What's the demotion situation like for Kizakiumi with 7-8 at J13w?

With this promotion committee we never know, but he will most likely stay. There is no shortage of demotion candidates and the pressure from makushita is not that high. There is no reason to over-demote him or anyone else for that matter.

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Posted (edited)

I don't get this whole Sanyaku/extra slot discussion here. Takakeisho needs to be ranked Sekiwake next basho. One slot is taken by Mitakeumi, the other one claimed by a 8-7 Ke1 (Abi). Therefore, another Sekiwake spot will be created for Takakeisho. The two vacated Komusubi slots are for Endo and Hokutofuji. Doitsubase is down ATM, but I cannot remember any case where a potential Sekiwake promotee was denied because of an Ozeki demotee, just to avoid the extra slot.

 

The question is rather if they (mildly) screw Ichinojo by putting Tomokaze on M1(w).

 

Edit: With DB up, I quickly checked the relevant constellations of the last decade, which seem to confirm my claims. (I admit, though, that Tochiozan and Shohozan were underpromoted to K between 11/12 and 1/13, where Bart fell down from O. But that was a special case, as they would have had to create two extra Sekiwake slots along with a stupid gap in the M2ish region.)

Edited by yorikiried by fate
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My two yen:
- this situation has never occurred before so it's anyone's guess what will happen      (going out on a limb here without checking all cases)
- every extra Sanyaku slot costs money

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I don't get this whole Sanyaku/extra slot discussion here. Takakeisho needs to be ranked Sekiwake next basho. One slot is taken by Mitakeumi, the other one claimed by a 8-7 Ke1 (Abi). Therefore, another Sekiwake spot will be created for Takakeisho. The two vacated Komusubi slots are for Endo and Hokutofuji. Doitsubase is down ATM, but I cannot remember any case where a potential Sekiwake promotee was denied because of an Ozeki demotee, just to avoid the extra slot.

 

The question is rather if they (mildly) screw Ichinojo by putting Tomokaze on M1(w).

 

Edit: With DB up, I quickly checked the relevant constellations of the last decade, which seem to confirm my claims. (I admit, though, that Tochiozan and Shohozan were underpromoted to K between 11/12 and 1/13, where Bart fell down from O. But that was a special case, as they would have had to create two extra Sekiwake slots along with a stupid gap in the M2ish region.) 

It's a good point, demoted Kotoshogiku and Terunofuji  both fell to S2 in a similar situation, as for Tochinoshin he fell to S1W but only because of lack of candidates to promotion.

Edited by Rainoyama

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24 minutes ago, Rainoyama said:

It's a good point, demoted Kotoshogiku and Terunofuji  both fell to S2 in a similar situation, as for Tochinoshin he fell to S1W but only because of lack of candidates to promotion.

The Terunofuji case doesn't apply because both existing Sekiwake got their KK. As with Kotoshogiku, it's quite a different beast to deny an 11-4 Komusubi the promotion compared to a mere 8-7 in Abi's case IMO.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

The Terunofuji case doesn't apply because both existing Sekiwake got their KK. As with Kotoshogiku, it's quite a different beast to deny an 11-4 Komusubi the promotion compared to a mere 8-7 in Abi's case IMO. 

That's exactly what I was thinking now. Is Abi 8-7 enough...probably not.

Edited by Rainoyama

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1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

but I cannot remember any case where a potential Sekiwake promotee was denied because of an Ozeki demotee, just to avoid the extra slot. 

Well there are lots of cases where potential Sekiwake promotees (e.g. a K with an 8-7 record) were denied because there was no room (e.g. both Sekiwake kk), just to avoid the extra slot. The main question imo is not whether they would be willing to not promote Abi to Sekiwake (they sure would), but whether they are willing to deny Hokutofuji a sanyaku spot...

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