Basho Talk Hatsu 2018 (SPOILERS)

[Rocks 1,801]

19 minutes ago, Adil said:

I like Ichinojo as much as the next guy and I have been waiting (like most of the folks here) for him to wake up from his torpor after that meteoric rise, but I am starting to get the feeling he won't go too far. I don't think his body can take that much pounding - no, I am not talking about his opponents; I am talking about his own weight. Has there been a 200 kg+ rikishi in recent times who had a long, successful career as an ozeki/sanyaku mainstay? The three Hawaiian behemoths come to mind, but Musashimaru and Konishiki became ozeki at the age of 23 and 24 respectively and Akebono was yokozuna at the age of 24. (Anyway, the three Hawaiians are more like the exception than the rule.)  Ichinojo will be 25 in three months; if he becomes ozeki in 2018, one could say that his rise to the top is roughly in the same timeframe as the three Hawaiians. If not, father time will start catching up with him real fast. If he becomes ozeki soon, he can start playing the kyujo/kadoban game to let his body recuperate. In that case, I guess he can have a long, successful career as an ozeki and maybe even become yokozuna. If he doesn't become ozeki soon and he keeps posting the kinds of results that he has been doing for the last three years (no double-digit wins in 2015, one in 2016 from M11 and one in 2017 from M4) in 2018, his chances of becoming an ozeki will go down real fast as his body starts breaking down because of the stress of having to compete in each and every basho. 

Summary: If he doesn't become ozeki in 2018 or early 2019 while he still appears to be in good shape, he's not going to make it because his weight and body shape will affect his knees and back very much.  

Ichinojo is all about his back. If it's good and stays that way he''l walk into Ozeki and threaten Yokozuna. If not then he won't even make Ozeki.

[Asashosakari 18,649]

32 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I am now taking bets on how long till we hear Kakuryuu actually re-injured one of his many injured body parts in his day 10 bout. Probably after he goes 10-5.

I was thinking exactly the same thing - maybe his foot again. His footwork has been atrocious the last two bouts, and his trying to rush the bouts is reminiscent of all the times he tried to compete while barely being able to stay on his feet.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Akinomaki 39,479]

We had Kakuryu having the thing in the bag, now Tochinoshin is almost sure to get it - time to have a ridiculous turn of events again: 11-4 yusho, and this time Ichinojo takes it by beating Tochinoshin twice.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Aminishiki returned to the ring on Day 11.  His goal was to add to his white star total to stave off a major demotion.  

If my high school math is correct, the chances of him losing five straight bouts is 1 in 32 (3.13%) without taking into account details like weight difference, age difference, etc. etc..  But given that he is not 100% healthy and his opponents are for the most part, then the odds are higher.  Sadly, I am unable to work out the mathematical intricacies.  Sigh.  

With three days remaining, the chances of Ami losing three in a row are 1 in 8 (12.5%).

Rest or compete?  Seems like this is one of sumo's biggest dilemmas...

[Sokkenaiyama 76]

1 hour ago, Thundersnow said:

Not until the fat lady sings? Oh, wait, wrong sport I reckon. ...until the skinny guy sings.

It's Tochinoshin's to lose, and as a small and very fair lad, I'm pulling for the tall pink guy. Definitely the best sumo I've seen from him.

Tomorrow's match between Mitakeumi and Kakuryu, anybody see the reverse direction pull in play? I'm guessing not. Takayasu is not yet to be counted out of the yusho race, but on Day 13 it doesn't hurt to have a 1 match lead, eh? Banzai Tochinoshin! Now's the time, buddy.

 

47 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I don't think so, but he'll get a jun-yusho I think. Even if Tochi loses to Ichinojo who is left to throw at him? Endo? Kaisei? Endo has a good record against Tochi but Endo is not a strong finisher in bashos and is likely to let up if he gets his KK today. Kaisei won't be the one to deny Tochi a yusho that's for sure. I don't see Tochi worse than 13-2.

It's exactly this kind of mindset and the associated pressure that separates the worthy from the eternal contenders. I'm not saying Tochinoshin will drop the ball, but he only has to do it once for Kakuryu to instantly become the favorite again. Also, there are enough tricky opponents left for the last two days - Endo, surely enough, or the likes of Shohozan or Chiyoshoma, not exactly Yokozuna material, but swift, agile and skilled enough to decisively exploit the tiniest pressure-induced hesitation.

The tall Eastern Europe guy that is also me, though, is hoping he won't choke.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

2 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Even if Tochinoshin loses tomorrow he's at worst tied for the lead going into day 14. Kak will still have Takayasu and Goeido, but who will Tochinoshin have? Endo and Chiyotairyu may be as tough as it gets.

The NHK broadcast today listed three wrestlers who are potential opponents for Tochinoshin on days 14 and 15:

1) Hokutofuji; 2) Chiyotairyu; and 3) Daieisho

It will be interesting indeed to see whom they choose...

Edited January 25, 2018 by Amamaniac

[Amamaniac 2,078]

1 hour ago, Thundersnow said:

It's Tochinoshin's to lose, and as a small and very fair lad, I'm pulling for the tall pink guy. Definitely the best sumo I've seen from him.

While I'm pulling for Tochinoshin as well, I can't help but think about what happened in the 2012 Summer Tourney.  

Hakuho was the sole Yokozuna on the banzuke.  On day 7, he went into a three-straight-loss slump.  He ended the tournament with a lacklustre 10-5 record.

Tochiozan (Tochinoshin's stablemate!) had a shot at a title.  He was ranked M4e in that tournament.  After the first five days, he had a respectable 4-1 record.  In the final 10 days, he dropped two bouts and was handed a freebie on the senshuraku since Ozeki Kotooshu conveniently went kyujo.  

Meanwhile, the lower-ranked Kyokutenho (i.e., M7w) finished the tournament with 10 straight wins forcing a playoff.  

Let's just say that the Kasugano Stable (to which Tochiozan and Tochinoshin belong) had to discard the sea bream that they purchased with high hopes...

Edited January 25, 2018 by Amamaniac

[Asashosakari 18,649]

33 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

The NHK broadcast today listed three wrestlers who are potential opponents for Tochinoshin on days 14 and 15:

1) Hokutofuji; 2) Chiyotairyu; and 3) Daieisho

It will be interesting indeed to see whom they choose...

To be honest, none of those three makes any particular sense, IMHO. Chiyotairyu would probably be the least bad pick, but that's not saying much.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Rocks 1,801]

40 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

The NHK broadcast today listed three wrestlers who are potential opponents for Tochinoshin on days 14 and 15:

1) Hokutofuji; 2) Chiyotairyu; and 3) Daieisho

It will be interesting indeed to see whom they choose...

The first 2 make sense given their ranks, not their records. Daieisho only makes sense if he gets to 10 wins. Otherwise someone up the banzuke with a winning record should be chosen IMO.

1) Hokutofuji; 2) Chiyotairyu make sense too because the  guys chasing Tochi got to face them so there is no reason he shouldn't either. They are no easier for him than they were for the others. It isn't his fault their records are poor.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Rocks

[Jakusotsu 5,721]

Maybe TPTB should deign to peruse the Doitsubase to identify those opponents Toshinoshin has the worst head-to-head record against...

[Tochinofuji 358]

7 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Maybe TPTB should deign to peruse the Doitsubase to identify those opponents Toshinoshin has the worst head-to-head record against...

TPTB? The people that...? 

[Jakusotsu 5,721]

1 minute ago, Tochinofuji said:

TPTB? The people that...? 

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=TPTB

[Tochinofuji 358]

Just now, Jakusotsu said:

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=TPTB

Thank you! I did a forum search that got me three hits and no explanation, but figured it was more sumo specific rather than in general use. I probably deserved  a "here, let me google that for you" response. 

[Asashosakari 18,649]

15 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Maybe TPTB should deign to peruse the Doitsubase to identify those opponents Toshinoshin has the worst head-to-head record against...

I don't know if they're gonna be able to get Baruto on such short notice.

[Tochinofuji 358]

2 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I don't know if they're gonna be able to get Baruto on such short notice.

You know the anime gods are serious when they bring a character out of retirement for a final climactic battle. 

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Watching Kakuryu retreat from the stadium while zabuton were flying through the air after his loss to Endo, I couldn't help but think of a four-star general retreating to his bunker (i.e., hiding his face) while bullets/artillery are flying on the battleground...  Another fine mess.  Sumo fans have a right to be upset.

[Huschnu 5]

10 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I don't know if they're gonna be able to get Baruto on such short notice.

I at a look at some of the old Baruto - Tochinoshin matches.
Man would it be nice to have someone like Baruto again...

Edited January 25, 2018 by Huschnu

[Shatsume 116]

6 hours ago, Joaoiyama said:

Tomorrow we have Tochinoshin vs Ichinojo, these two are fierce rivals and are having great basho so it means fireworks guaranteed.

So more than likely one of them will mess their tachiai up and tumble to the floor!

Seriously though, I hope it lives up to the epic bout it has the potential to be.

[Kaminariyuki 497]

1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

"Let's just say that the Kasugano Stable (to which Tochiozan and Tochinoshin belong) had to discard the sea bream that they purchased with high hopes..."

I'd have gone on and eaten that wea bream!

 

[wys 55]

19 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Watching Kakuryu retreat from the stadium while zabuton were flying through the air after his loss to Endo, I couldn't help but think of a four-star general retreating to his bunker (i.e., hiding his face) while bullets/artillery are flying on the battleground...  Another fine mess.  Sumo fans have a right to be upset.

Amazingly, I still have yet to see one actually hit someone in the face. 

[Jakusotsu 5,721]

16 minutes ago, Shatsume said:

So more than likely one of them will mess their tachiai up and tumble to the floor!

Very unlikely. Neither of them are prone to that, and even less against each other.

[Rocks 1,801]

1 minute ago, Jakusotsu said:

Very unlikely. Neither of them are prone to that, and even less against each other.

I expect both of them to get a grip on the mawashi and lean for a good long while. Question is who gets tired first?

[Joaoiyama 303]

4 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I expect both of them to get a grip on the mawashi and lean for a good long while. Question is who gets tired first?

Question is who can get the better grip and explode at the right time.

[yorikiried by fate 1,987]

[Kaninoyama 1,649]

Was at the Kokugikan yesterday. The support for Tochinoshin was electric both prior to and following his match. And when Endo finally came through in a huge moment and flipped this basho upside down,  the eruption of cushions, including my own (which came close to grazing Endo's nose), was spectacular.

In other bouts, as noted Ichinojo just completely flattened Yoshikaze and looks every bit like the "kaibutsu" he was when he first arrived on the makuuchi scene. Takayasu also appears to be back in form with a decisive win over fellow Ozeki Goeido, and while he probably has one too many loses to have any reasonable shot at a yuusho this time, I love his chances moving forward.