Who will do best among the 3 young hopefuls: Endo, Mitakeumi, Shodai?

[robnplunder 978]

Who will do best in November 2016 basho among the 3 young Japanese hopefuls, Endo, Mitakeumi, or Shodai?    

To me, it is very tough to call.   It is going to come down to who wins the matches among them.   My bet is Endo  whom I think is going to come out ahead of the other two.

Edited November 3, 2016 by robnplunder

[sadanoumi_is_my_favorite 8]

I can't comment on Endo because I don't consider him a young hopeful. I have only been following Makuuchi sumo since early 2015 so he's old news to my experience. There are nine rikishi younger than him: Kotoyuki, Daishomaru, Shodai, Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Chiyootori, Mitakeumi, Ichinojo and Daiesho.

As for Shodai vs. Mitakeumi:

They have both been in Makuuchi since Shodai entered in Hatsu 2016; Mitakeumi debuted one basho earlier and went 8-7 at M11w. Their performances in Makuuchi since then have been: 

Hatsu     Shodai M12w 10-5   Mitakeumi  M10w 5-8-2

Haru       Shodai M6w 9-6       Mitakeumi M13w 10-5

Natsu     Shodai M2e 6-9        Mitakeumi M8w 11-4

Nagoya  Shodai M5e 9-6        Mitakeumi M1e 5-10

Aki         Shodai M2w 7-8       Mitakeumi M5w 10-5

Kyushu  Shodai M3w             Mitakeumi K (!!!!!!!)

The biggest takeaway, I think, is that the lesser ranked rikishi always had the better tournament record, and that aside from Haru basho (when Shodai hadn't yet hit his wall) the higher ranked rikishi went makekoshi. Because of this, I predict that Mitakeumi will makekoshi and Shodai kachikoshi. Both rikishi make are (I don't have a way to say this, but basically what I'm getting at is "getting better" in a way that makes me enthralled and want to keep watching sumo) getting better every basho and it is impressive and exciting to see Mitakeumi enter sanyaku a year after joining Makuuchi but I expect that the promotion will be accompanied by a worse record. (Side note question: is M1 or K a harder rank to compete at?). Meanwhile, I think that Shodai is probably the more talented wrestler of the two and expect him to go kachikoshi with 8-7 or 9-6. I'll need to watch recent matches to see if his Nagoya showing was better than Haru or Aki better than Natsu but I have, in casually watching the bashos when they occur, thought that he's improving.

As an American sumo aficionado, I have to say how excited I am for Kyusho basho now that the Cubbies won and there are no other sports events to look forward to until the Super Bowl.

Edited November 3, 2016 by sadanoumi_is_my_favorite

[Bumpkin 438]

Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

[robnplunder 978]

Ok, @Bumpkin.  Cubs won.  Now you have to wait another 108 years unless you respond to this thread properly.  

[Benihana 1,971]

Open a poll in the poll section.

[Gurowake 4,147]

Shodai and Mitakeumi are about even to me, and the former isn't slated to face all the YokOzeki, so he's certainly my pick.  Switch Mitakeumi and Shodai's ranks and I'd switch who I'd give my support to.  Endo, meh, maybe he's more fully recovered from his injury somehow, but he'll probably get slaughtered.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Gurowake

[Bumpkin 438]

Ichinojo is still the youngest in Maku-uchi, isn't he.  That said, I predict, of the three, only Endo gets 10+ wins.

[Tenshinhan 1,612]

18 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Ichinojo is still the youngest in Maku-uchi, isn't he.

No, he isn't. Kagayaki is younger.

I believe Shodai will be the best among them. Mitakeumi will have a tougher schedule and Endo is ranked way too high for his abilities (and just a random doofus).

Edited November 3, 2016 by Tenshinhan

[Benihana 1,971]

POLL

[RabidJohn 2,050]

12 hours ago, sadanoumi_is_my_favorite said:

(Side note question: is M1 or K a harder rank to compete at?).

As a total outsider, I've always thought K must be slightly mentally harder, because sanyaku rikishi lose the added incentive of kinboshi (i.e. permanent pay rise) that the M1 has. That could just be a western way of thinking though...

I'd love to see Mitakeumi make it stick and get a KK as a shin-sanyau, but his track record suggests it'll probably be a MK.

I think Shodai has a mental hurdle to overcome when he's facing the Y/O, so his slightly easier slate will probably see him outscore Mitakeumi. I can see him maybe going 8-7 for his first joi KK.

I have no faith in Endo, but then I had no faith in Goeido either, so I'm prepared to be proven wrong.

[Sakura 1,523]

Endo having a good basho would not surprise me, but I'm not expecting it. I think Shodai will have the best record this time round because of his ranking.

[Benihana 1,971]

I have to get this off my mind. I can't help it and i'm really soory (a little), but every time i read "random doofus", this picture pops up in my mind.

 

Spoiler

 

[Kaioshoryu 68]

Gagamaru.

[Gurowake 4,147]

17 hours ago, sadanoumi_is_my_favorite said:

 (Side note question: is M1 or K a harder rank to compete at?)

 

Komusubi is slightly harder in terms of ranks faced.  M1s can expect for their maegashira matches to regularly be matched down to M5 for "normal" matches, whereas sanyaku will face absolutely the highest ranked rikishi that it makes sense for them to face.  For the last couple matches they might both be pulled down the banzuke somewhat more, but again an M1 tends to be much more likely to face someone closer to the bottom of the banzuke than someone in sanyaku.  Of course, in an individual basho, things might not work out that way, but that's the general rule.  (I'm ignoring the fact that a Komusubi has one less sanyaku opponent to face than an M1, as that's not really a meaningful distinction.)

Of course, whether that weaker schedule by rank actually works out to a weaker schedule by actual ability is debatable; the ones lower on the banzuke that they face are probably joi regulars who were rotated out this time around and might be better than some of the guys who lucked into joi spots.

 

[hamcornheinz 839]

whoever is ranked lowest. 

[pmac 34]

hi all! im the new one, who finally found back to sumo, thanks to kinta :)

for this basho i´ll go with shodai, in the long run i have the feeling and the hope mitakeumi has the most potential of those 3!

[sekitori 492]

Despite his recent success, Endo has a knee that should have been surgically repaired but wasn't. I doubt if it's nearly as strong as it could have been. Most expert opinion is that non-surgical intervention of a torn ACL can result in successful healing, provided that the person is willing to give up "high demand sports". Unfortunately, sumo is an extremely high demand activity. 

Competing at M3 will be much tougher than at M14. Will his knee hold up under the stress of far stronger competition?  Will he show that his 13-2 record was no fluke and that he really is a strong contender to reach and continue to remain in sanyaku? At this level, I think he will be fortunate to get 8-7. If he does better than that, I will be amazed. And no matter what happens in Kyushu, I remain concerned about that knee. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by sekitori

[robnplunder 978]

I picked Endo over Mitakeumi.   In the last basho, Endo beat (IMHO) Mitakeumi easily.   Endo is also ranked lower and will get easier opponents.  

[dingo 1,473]

I don't really consider Endo a young hopeful anymore. He's probably fated to be an above-average maegashira and that's unfortunately it.

I do root for Shodai though, he's shown glimpses of greatness in the past so I'd like him to do well.

[Dwale 419]

I would think Shodai. I do expect Mitakeumi to put in a respectable performance, but I would be surprised (and very pleased) if he went kachikoshi.

[SumpaX 23]

what happened to the Ichinojo that had a 13-2 in his Makuuchi debut... I want him back :(

[ALAKTORN 346]

27 minutes ago, SumpaX said:

what happened to the Ichinojo that had a 13-2 in his Makuuchi debut... I want him back :(

Weight gain happened.

[Benihana 1,971]

9 minutes ago, ALAKTORN said:

Weight gain happened.

Weight gain leads to back pain

Back pain leads to suffering.

[Senkoho 552]

2 hours ago, Benihana said:

Weight gain leads to back pain

Back pain leads to suffering.

yesss!

[Rocks 1,810]

Shodai easily. He is already at a high level except mentally. Once that clicks in he will make Ozeki easily.