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Basho Talk - Aki Basho 2016 +++ Spoiler Alert! +++

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1 minute ago, Dwale said:

No, Kisenosato, why?? You had him, you had him...! T.T

My theory is that he cant cope with the stress... look before the bout, his eyebrow movement, he is fighting something inside of him.. maybe the thought of loosing, who knows. Then he comes out exploding with anger, like trying to channel all this emotion into this fight but thats exactly what led to his fall in the end.

I also think goeido will loose 2 times... 4 days to go in which he has to face the best rikishi of the tournament.

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I don't think I recall a day when such damage was done to the upper echelon and to those who were expected to win. It's like Hakuho was the keystone keeping the arch from falling. Heck, even Juryo seems bass-ackwards with Ura and Osunaarashi struggling.

At least Makushita looks like it will be entertaining with an inevitable matchup between the ex-Daikiho, now-Yamaguchi, and the youngster Tamaki. Would a win by Tamaki get him anywhere near Juryo? (Doubtful, but curious.)

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27 minutes ago, Dwale said:

So now Goeido has to lose twice (which he may well). Know what, now that Kisenosato is out of the running, to heck with it. Go, Goeido! XP Seriously, I'd just as soon a Japanese rikishi take the cup, make the fans happy. Never in a million years thought it might be Goeido, but...

That's what most of us were thinking back in January when Kotoshogiku when his yusho too. Given Goeido's performance within the last year, I would have never thought he'd have the chance to win the yusho at this point in the game either. Now it's up to him not to cave to the pressure that has befallen Kisenosato.

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On the other hand, Harumafuji's loss was slightly good news for Kisenosato...I don't really expect it to happen, but he could pull even with Haru simply by beating him, and it's certainly conceivable (if unlikely) that Goeido could drop three bouts against Haru/Kaku/Giku + Kaisei (or maegashira).

The ultimate hilarity would be if the top guys eliminate each other and Takayasu strolls through to 13-2...

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25 minutes ago, Ahogeyama said:

I don't think I recall a day when such damage was done to the upper echelon and to those who were expected to win. It's like Hakuho was the keystone keeping the arch from falling.

Hakuho is without question an outlier and next to prime Asashoryu, the #1 reason sumo has been so favored toward one or two people. I've said it multiple times that if Hakuho and Asashoryu did not exist, you would see a lot more competitive bashos, more yokozuna and more random people getting titles.

Edited by rzombie1988
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5 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

The ultimate hilarity would be if the top guys eliminate each other and Takayasu strolls through to 13-2...

I'd love that tbh :P

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3 minutes ago, MrGrumpyGills said:

I'd love that tbh :P

Amusing certainly. But I'd prefer Goeido to finish it off strongly and take a therefore deserved yusho.

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10 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

On the other hand, Harumafuji's loss was slightly good news for Kisenosato...I don't really expect it to happen, but he could pull even with Haru simply by beating him, and it's certainly conceivable (if unlikely) that Goeido could drop three bouts against Haru/Kaku/Giku + Kaisei (or maegashira).

The ultimate hilarity would be if the top guys eliminate each other and Takayasu strolls through to 13-2...

Harumafuji's loss means there is a slightly better chance that Kise can get a jun-yusho and keep his tsuna run alive. The irony would be if it was Takayasu who prevented that from happening.

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Given how strong Goeido is and their last 4 matches being split 2:2, I think Goeido has a good chance at beating Kakuryu tomorrow. 

The Geek can give Ama trouble too.

Takayasu and Yoshikaze I'd usually give the nod to Yoshikaze but this basho? Still should be good.

Should be another interesting day. What a basho! The mice are certainly more entertaining when the cat is not about.

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If Takayasu wins, I expect Kisenosato to retire

JK :-P but, man, what a blow if your kohai wins before you do, after being so close for so long

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2 minutes ago, kosomo said:

If Takayasu wins, I expect Kisenosato to retire

JK :-P but, man, what a blow if your kohai wins before you do, after being so close for so long

If Goeido wins, Kisenosato will literally be the only Ozeki since the Late 2000's to not win a tournament as an Ozeki or higher.

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Oyanagi has battled back from an 0-3 start and will be going for his KK against 4-7 Fujiazuma, who is on the edge of demotion. A lot on the line in that match....

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8 hours ago, Rocks said:

A new Maegashira Chiyoshoma henkaing in his 1st basho is just wrong IMHO. I hope he goes MK. 

So how many tournaments does he need before he can henka without it being just wrong?

Hoping he drops all his remaining matches just because he used that technique, a very common one I may add, seems petty to me.

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

On the other hand, Harumafuji's loss was slightly good news for Kisenosato...I don't really expect it to happen, but he could pull even with Haru simply by beating him, and it's certainly conceivable (if unlikely) that Goeido could drop three bouts against Haru/Kaku/Giku + Kaisei (or maegashira).

The ultimate hilarity would be if the top guys eliminate each other and Takayasu strolls through to 13-2...

This will be interesting to see tomorrow. Okinoumi clearly had a mental change when he seemed like he passed the "tough part". I wonder how Goeido respinds now that he has a clear lead.

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5 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

So how many tournaments does he need before he can henka without it being just wrong?

Hoping he drops all his remaining matches just because he used that technique, a very common one I may add, seems petty to me.

How many? After your debut. It is petty.I still feel that way. You spend 6 years trying to get to the top level of a sport, to prove yourself, and the first opportunity you have you dodge that? Very lame IMHO.

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In Chiyoshoma's first bout he went straight at the much larger Amakaze and threw him to the ground....he didn't henka at the first opportunity he got upon making the top division. Henkas may be anticlimactic, but they are legal and commonly employed, and I think it's smart for rikishi to mix up their techniques. To me it's always seem strange that some people aren't simply disfavorable of them (I understand that), but find them so objectionable that they wish continued bad luck to the rikishi who use the technique.

Maybe Tokushoryu will be more controlled in his tachai the next time he faces Chiyoshoma.

Edited by Katooshu
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8 minutes ago, Rocks said:

How many? After your debut. It is petty.I still feel that way. You spend 6 years trying to get to the top level of a sport, to prove yourself, and the first opportunity you have you dodge that? Very lame IMHO.

How do you get to the "top level"? Yes, by winning! And simple question: Does he win?

Banzuke makers are not interested wether you like the way he wins or not...

 

 

 

And Kisenosato's bout today was the textbook example why he will never win a yusho or get promoted to yokozuna. He is among the top rikishi who perform consistently well and achieve double digit results on a regular basis. He is superior to most of his opponents, but still struggle seal the deal...  again and again...

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11 minutes ago, Tsubame said:

How do you get to the "top level"? Yes, by winning! And simple question: Does he win?

Banzuke makers are not interested wether you like the way he wins or not...

You know what they are interested in? The groans from the crowd when guys pull this, especially in a match up people have been looking forward to.

It's one thing when a guy engages and then breaks off as a technique ala Harumafuji. It's another thing to literally leap out of the way. Legal? Yes. A huge disappointment for the fans? Also yes.

You don't think Tochinoshin got an earful after pulling a henka on Kisenosato? Henkas are bad for business. They are the sumo equivalent of a hitter not swinging hoping for a walk. is it walk legal? Of course it is, but it don't put butts in the seats.

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19 hours ago, McBugger said:

You've assumed a win probability of 50% on all the bouts, but it isn't exactly like that. Put Aoiyama in good form at about K-M1 and have him face 7 Yokozuna and Ozeki on the first 7 days, and weaker opponents in the rest of the matches. It's a much higher probability than 1 in 33,000.

I don't think K-M1 have better chance. The average winning rate of K-M1 is well below 50%. They do have low winning rate before day-7, but if they had higher winning rate after day-7, their average rate would be around 50% or better. The high winning rate of O-Y is at the cost of S-K and upper maegashira. Perhaps the S has the best chance.

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48 minutes ago, Rocks said:

This will be interesting to see tomorrow. Okinoumi clearly had a mental change when he seemed like he passed the "tough part". I wonder how Goeido respinds now that he has a clear lead.

Goeido only needs to solve Kakuryu to yusho and I think he can do it this basho. But if he loses, the yusho will probably go to Haru.

Edit: Haru will beat Goeido.

Edited by Dapeng
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Harumafuji was fighting without a left leg, and it looked like that knee collapsed on him.  He may be toast for the remainder of the basho.

 

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9 hours ago, Rocks said:

A new Maegashira Chiyoshoma henkaing in his 1st basho is just wrong IMHO. I hope he goes MK. 

FWIW, he said today after the match that he is injured and had to resort to that. OTOH, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have dared to do it under the leadership of the former now-deceased Kokonoe Oyakata.

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San-pai ima kimi wa jinsei no, ookina,  ookina butai ni tachi...

Hehehehehe, I told youse Kise wouldn't yusho.

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