Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Nagoya 2025

[Dairenzu 8]

Wondering how far people think Daieisho will fall? Spiffy had him down to something like M12 without much comment, but it looks like there has been a lot of variance in how far sanyaku wrestlers drop after a full basho kyujo. I'm kind of almost disbelieving the query that there has only been two 0-win S1Es in the last 40 years, and only 10 total from anywhere in Sekiwake in the 2000s. It is true the four most recent all went to M10-11, but the one's before those were all to M6-8 and if you back further it looks really random. Given how consistent Daieisho has been, this is a one basho kyujo (as far as we know), and the soft spot in the banzuke for September looks to be around M6, I'm thinking he might hold up higher than expected?

[Seseragi 12]

20 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

NikkanSp in the predicted joi banzuke has Aonishiki to sekiwake and Tamawashi to komusubi. Kotoshoho only to m5.

o

I'm very green to banzukenomics but 3 Sekiwake feels very wrong given he went 11-4 from M1 and you normally need that from Komusubi to promote?* The last time it happened in 2017 (Tamawashi) they had one sekiwake (Mitakeumi) and one kumosubi (Onosho) after the maths so they needed to get more people up, and Onosho only went 7-8 so could easily be leapfrogged?

The Sanyaku hasn't collapsed this time so I really can't see how they came to this one. I wonder what the chance of 3 Komusubi is though?

 

*I don't think it would have changed my conclusion if he had won on the last day and went 12-3

Edited July 28 by Seseragi

[Reonito 1,748]

40 minutes ago, Dairenzu said:

Wondering how far people think Daieisho will fall? Spiffy had him down to something like M12 without much comment, but it looks like there has been a lot of variance in how far sanyaku wrestlers drop after a full basho kyujo. I'm kind of almost disbelieving the query that there has only been two 0-win S1Es in the last 40 years, and only 10 total from anywhere in Sekiwake in the 2000s. It is true the four most recent all went to M10-11, but the one's before those were all to M6-8 and if you back further it looks really random. Given how consistent Daieisho has been, this is a one basho kyujo (as far as we know), and the soft spot in the banzuke for September looks to be around M6, I'm thinking he might hold up higher than expected?

I think it's a balance between what they might think is the appropriate landing spot in a vacuum and having it be reasonable relative to other placements, so this creates a fair bit of variance. Like, "we'd like to have him at M10, but there are 22 guys who should definitely be ahead..."

[Fashiritētā 209]

Wakatakakage went from S1E to K1W with  a 7-7-1, would Daieisho get the same , or does the 0-0-15 just give him a straight drop through Sanyaku?

[Kachikoshi 51]

21 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

Wakatakakage went from S1E to K1W with  a 7-7-1, would Daieisho get the same , or does the 0-0-15 just give him a straight drop through Sanyaku?

For the last couple decades, a 7-win record as a sekiwake guarantees a drop no farther than komusubi, but any performance worse than that has always resulted in a demotion to maegashira.

Edited July 28 by Kachikoshi

[Asashosakari 20,135]

Just a heads-up, my notebook's CPU fan decided to die last night, so I'll be out of commission for anything but short comments for a bit and any "scheduled" postings I might have expected to make over the next few days will almost certainly not be happening.

[Koorifuu 1,099]

2 hours ago, Fashiritētā said:

Wakatakakage went from S1E to K1W with  a 7-7-1, would Daieisho get the same , or does the 0-0-15 just give him a straight drop through Sanyaku?

Makekoshi sekiwake are treated like any rank and file makuuchi. Hardly any leniency, if at all. Daieisho's sadly very likely to get the full brunt and hit lower mid maegashira.

Edited July 28 by Koorifuu

[Bunbukuchagama 926]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

I think it's a balance between what they might think is the appropriate landing spot in a vacuum and having it be reasonable relative to other placements, so this creates a fair bit of variance. Like, "we'd like to have him at M10, but there are 22 guys who should definitely be ahead..."

Having to guess the size of Daieisho's parachute will definitely complicate this edition of GTB. And we also have Oshoma...

[Fashiritētā 209]

4 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Having to guess the size of Daieisho's parachute will definitely complicate this edition of GTB. And we also have Oshoma...

After a query, the closest example in the modern era , was Musoyama 1999.03 going 1-2-12 from S1E was dropped to M6E.

[Jakusotsu 6,321]

4 hours ago, Fashiritētā said:

After a query, the closest example in the modern era , was Musoyama 1999.03 going 1-2-12 from S1E was dropped to M6E.

Don't need to got that far.

Edited July 29 by Jakusotsu

[Sumo Spiffy 646]

On 28/07/2025 at 11:32, Dairenzu said:

Wondering how far people think Daieisho will fall? Spiffy had him down to something like M12 without much comment, but it looks like there has been a lot of variance in how far sanyaku wrestlers drop after a full basho kyujo. I'm kind of almost disbelieving the query that there has only been two 0-win S1Es in the last 40 years, and only 10 total from anywhere in Sekiwake in the 2000s. It is true the four most recent all went to M10-11, but the one's before those were all to M6-8 and if you back further it looks really random. Given how consistent Daieisho has been, this is a one basho kyujo (as far as we know), and the soft spot in the banzuke for September looks to be around M6, I'm thinking he might hold up higher than expected?

Banzukes have been done a fair bit differently the last couple years compared to further back, so even somewhat recent precedent (2010s-ish) can be sketchy to lean on. It used to be quite normal, even just a few years ago, for someone in Daieisho's position to expect a pretty decent parachute. Here, looking it over again, I think his realistic best-case scenario is that they find a reason to bump him ahead of Takerufuji, Roga, and Mitakeumi to M11e.

Edited July 29 by Sumo Spiffy

[Dairenzu 8]

39 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Banzukes have been done a fair bit differently the last couple years compared to further back, so even somewhat recent precedent (2010s-ish) can be sketchy to lean on. It used to be quite normal, even just a few years ago, for someone in Daieisho's position to expect a pretty decent parachute. Here, looking it over again, I think his realistic best-case scenario is that they find a reason to bump him ahead of Takerufuji, Roga, and Mitakeumi to M11e.

If they want to be purely mechanistic about it, if he were to go to M6w or M7w (with Oshoma taking the other), that would make it so there wouldn't have to be any over-promotions except for (probably) Hakuoho in the whole banzuke. As you noted in your video, a healthy Daiesho would be expected to be an absolute wrecking ball at M11-12, just outside the joi could be a better spot for his expected ability on return. Of the four cases in the last 10 years or so, two were guys who had just leapt to Sekiwake from M6 (Myogiryu in 2014 and Okinoumi in 2015) and two guys who were beginning long-term drops (Asanoyama in 2021 and Terunofuji in 2017). Not saying at all you are wrong of course, but the precedent is a little thin at least. I also think, on principle, he should be ahead of Oshoma - not showing up at all was better than whatever the hell Oshoma was doing out there.

[Reonito 1,748]

15 minutes ago, Dairenzu said:

I also think, on principle, he should be ahead of Oshoma - not showing up at all was better than whatever the hell Oshoma was doing out there.

This is certainly a take.

[Akinomaki 41,571]

Sponichi is a bit more careful than NikkanSP with the prediction: to sekiwake, Takayasu or Aonishiki? If one of them, Tamawashi to komusubi, if both of them (4 sekiwake), also Abi to komusubi https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/07/30/kiji/20250730s00005000077000c.html?page=1

 

[Akinomaki 41,571]

Sponichi about juryo-makuuchi exchange: 4 clear cut cases, and then either Hitoshi or Daiseizan up or Kotoeiho or Shishi stay. https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/07/30/kiji/20250730s00005000076000c.html?page=1

The sports papers only publish a complete forecast till m5, and usually only in the printed paper, but BBM always has a full prediction of makuuchi and juryo 

o

Edited July 29 by Akinomaki

[Gurowake 4,136]

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Sponichi is a bit more careful than NikkanSP with the prediction: to sekiwake, Takayasu or Aonishiki? If one of them, Tamawashi to komusubi, if both of them (4 sekiwake), also Abi to komusubi https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/07/30/kiji/20250730s00005000077000c.html?page=1

 

Why are any of them contemplating more than two Sekiwake?

[Gurowake 4,136]

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

BBM always has a full prediction of makuuchi and juryo

It doesn't look all that bad per se, but, uh, they clearly have the M18 on the wrong side, which makes it hard to take seriously.

[Reonito 1,748]

So, Nishinoryu made it:

https://x.com/sumokyokai/status/1950343920103424437

[Kachikoshi 51]

19 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Why are any of them contemplating more than two Sekiwake?

If Takayasu can hold on to Komusubi with just six wins, why not have four Sekiwake?

[WAKATAKE 2,758]

Asanoyama becomes the first wrestler to fall to sandanme twice and return to juryo

[Jakusotsu 6,321]

2 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Asanoyama becomes the first wrestler to fall to sandanme twice and return to juryo

Only because of his own stupidity. I hate these "records".

[Bunbukuchagama 926]

17 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Only because of his own stupidity. I hate these "records".

He isn't getting a statue of his erected to commemorate this great deed, don't worry. 

[Asashosakari 20,135]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

So, Nishinoryu made it:

https://x.com/sumokyokai/status/1950343920103424437

Win for the hypothesis? 

[RabidJohn 2,010]

3 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Only because of his own stupidity. 

The first time he went down, yes, for sure. He might have earned a rope, but he threw it all away.

This most recent trip down was recovering from a knee op, though, which seems eminently sensible compared to "gambarizing".

[Andreas21 210]

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Why are any of them contemplating more than two Sekiwake?

The article writer perhaps mistakenly assumed that Takayasu has 11:4.

Anyway, when we apply the rules

• 11:4 from Komusubi forces Sekiwake promotion even by adding a third Sekiwake
• 11:4 from M1e forces Komusubi promotion even by adding a third Komusubi
• Any Kachikoshi from M4 can soar up to Sekiwake when there is space

there is no need to create third K/S.

However, contemplation is always appropriate because rules as these are not set in stone. We know this from inexplicable cases in the past, Takayasu/Aonishiki just in this Banzuke is one of them (different rules of course).

Is the decision independent from the last? I.e. we were hard to Aonishiki, so he gets a bonus next time. Probably independent, but it can not be completely ruled out.

Is the Sanyaku decision independent from the ranks below? Like, when we create an additional Sanyaku spot, then we can make better placement below. Probably independent, but it can not be completely ruled out.