Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Nagoya 2025

[Reonito 1,748]

Makushita promotion queue: 3e Asahakuryu (7-0), 2e Ishizaki (6-1), 1e Kyokukaiyu (5-2), 1w Asanoyama (5-2), 3w Kitanowaka (4-2), 5e Nishinoryu (5-2).

Juryo demotion queue: 10w Nabatame (0-0-14), 10e Mitoryu (0-5-9), 12e Shimanoumi (3-11), 12w Otsuji (4-10),  13w Daiamami (5-9), J11e Shiden (5-9), 14w Miyanokaze (7-7).

All three crossover bouts were won by the Makushita men—if they weren't already confirmed for promotion, they sure are now. So the Takasago triple promotion is on—does anyone know if this is a first? Shimanoumi now has a record that should be absolutely unsalvageable, and can finish no better than 4th in the demotion queue, so it would take an actual conspiracy for him to avoid Makushita. Since he's fighting an irrelevant bout against Ms4e Satorufuji (2-5) just to make up the numbers, I think we can finally safely assume that his cloak of infinite sekitorihood has been lost in the laundry. Otsuji is also toast. Daimami fights Kitanowaka tomorrow in what is probably a straight-up exchange bout. I think Nishinoryu is out of luck—he shouldn't be able to push down Shiden or Miyanokaze even if they lose, and would also likely be behind Daiamami if the latter beats Kitanowaka, although this may offer another test case for how they treat close calls.

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Quick update on maku'uchi demotion queue

Based on my reading of the possible results Endo, Kayo, Hidenoumi and Chiyoshoma are all definitely down.

There is a mathematical chance that Kotoeiho could stay up but he would need to win (obviously) and have nine other matches to end favourably. I make that odds of around 1023-1.

Shishi has a slim chance if he wins, but I gave up trying to calculate the odds, as I would have to take into account the advantage given to maku'uchi wrestlers in the event of a mathematical tie and whether previous banzuke luck would come into play. Let's just say he is up against it and leave it at that.

[Reonito 1,748]

51 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Shishi has a slim chance if he wins, but I gave up trying to calculate the odds, as I would have to take into account the advantage given to maku'uchi wrestlers in the event of a mathematical tie and whether previous banzuke luck would come into play. Let's just say he is up against it and leave it at that.

"Never tell me the odds."

[Reonito 1,748]

So, if Kotoshoho beats Aonishiki, he takes the yusho outright. If he loses, they go to a playoff, possibly joined by Kusano. If we treat the bouts as coin flips, that's a 50% chance of an outright Kotoshoho yusho, 25% chance of a 2-way playoff, and 25% chance of a 3-way playoff. Let's say the 2-way playoff is again a coin flip, and the 3-way playoff gives everyone a 1 in 3 shot. Adding it all up:

• Kotoshoho: 50% + 0.5 * 25% + 0.33 * 25% = 71%
• Aonishiki: 0.5 * 25% + 0.33 * 25% = 21%
• Kusano: 0.33 * 25% = 8%

[Asashosakari 20,134]

Day 14

               Rank  W-L    max   min    maxQ  minQ
Mitoryu        J10e  0-5-9  Ms11e Ms11e   2nd   2nd   
Nabatame       J10w  kyujo  Ms11w Ms11w   1st   1st
Shiden      L  J11e  5-9          Ms2e          6th
Shimanoumi  L  J12e  3-11   Ms5e  Ms7e    4th   3rd
Otsuji      L  J12w  4-10   Ms3w  Ms5w    5th   3rd
Daiamami    L  J13w  5-9    Ms2w  Ms4w    5th   4th
Miyanokaze  L  J14w  7-7          Ms1w          6th

Kyokukaiyu  W  Ms1e  5-2    J12e  J12e    3rd   3rd
Asanoyama   W  Ms1w  5-2    J12w  J12w    4th   4th
Ishizaki    W  Ms2e  6-1    J11e  J11e    2nd   2nd
Asahakuryu     Ms3e  7-0    J10e  J10e    1st   1st
Kitanowaka     Ms3w  4-2    J14w  Ms2w    5th   6th
Nishinoryu  W  Ms5e  5-2    Ms2e  Ms2e    5th   6th
Takakento   W  Ms5w  4-3    Ms4w  Ms4w    7th   7th

I guess the guys in each division knew what they wanted to get out of the day...

If we're taking the numbers at face value:

• Certainties:
  • Kyokukaiyu, Asanoyama, Ishizaki and Asahakuryu will go up with slam-dunk promotion cases.
  • Mitoryu, Nabatame, Shimanoumi and Otsuji will go down.
    • Otsuji could still improve his position to finish ahead of Daiamami, but his case would be far too bad as #5 in the queue as well.
• Possibilities off of tomorrow's Daiamami - Kitanowaka bout:
  • Daiamami wins:
    • Daiamami still demotable as 5th in line, calculates to Ms2w and should lose the comparison to Nishinoryu's Ms2e.
    • Kitanowaka calculates to Ms2w and should lose the 6th-in-line comparison to either Shiden (Ms2e with a loss) or Miyanokaze (Ms1w with a loss), or just have nobody to replace at all.
  • Kitanowaka wins:
    • Kitanowaka gets a record that calculates into juryo and definitely goes up thanks to the large number of demotable juryo rikishi.
    • Daiamami joins the queue of those who are needed to accommodate the now five slam-dunk promotions.
    • Nishinoryu (Ms2e) drops to 6th in line for promotion and can only hope to replace a losing Shiden (Ms2e) if they decide to handle them differently from Miyanokaze / Kyokukaiyu last time. I wouldn't bet on it personally, although I feel the need to point out that Nishinoryu's sole appearance up in juryo this basho was a win and came against...Shiden.

Consequently, Miyanokaze should be safe no matter what.

I don't like to root against guys just for data points, but I will say that the only "uninteresting" outcome here would be wins by both Kitanowaka and Shiden. They haven't made it easy for Shiden in any case, as he's going against J3e Oshoumi (8-6) who could clinch a promotable record by winning. Miyanokaze faces fellow 7-7 J4e Tochitaikai.

All that aside, as already mentioned by @Reonito one makushita rikishi is getting some bonus sumo courtesy of Ura's Day 14 withdrawal...as usual it's the highest-ranked rikishi who has already had his seventh bout and is 2-5 or worse, so Ms4e Satorufuji (2-5) has an opportunity to maaaybe earn himself a bit of banzuke luck at Shimanoumi's expense. (And this time it would actually be possible to see just how much credit they're giving him, since there's another 2-5 right behind him with Dewanoryu at Ms4w...)

Incidentally, looking at the list of makushita 3-5's, should Satorufuji join them he'll be only the second rikishi to get there after a 0-5 start; the other one was over 40 years ago.

Edited July 26 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,748]

9 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Daiamami still demotable as 5th in line, calculates to Ms2w and should lose the comparison to Nishinoryu's Ms2e.

Somehow I'm having trouble seeing Daiamami winning an "exchange bout" and getting booted anyway; if this happens, we can give the numbers more weight going forward.

[Asashosakari 20,134]

Just now, Reonito said:

Somehow I'm having trouble seeing Daiamami winning an "exchange bout" and getting booted anyway; if this happens, we can give the numbers more weight going forward.

Yap, hence "interesting" outcome. In a similar-but-reversed vein, after posting I've started wondering if Nishinoryu at Ms2e might have a shot at replacing Miyanokaze at Ms1w based on some sort of "Miyanokaze already got too lucky last time" clause that would override the pure numbers. It would be quite the Houdini act to survive in juryo from J13e with 6-9 -> 7-8. (Although Chiyosakae did it from J14e less than two years ago so...) 

[Asashosakari 20,134]

Didn't manage to get this written up yesterday, but I hope it's still interesting/relevant...the culmination(?) of the lower division yusho races.

Day 13 Results

Videos

Makushita (2 > 1)
7-0 Ms3e Asahakuryu (Takasago)
6-1 Ms40w Yago (Oshiogawa)

Sandanme (2 > 1)
6-1 Sd15e Mineyaiba (Shikoroyama)
7-0 Sd42w Kobayashi (Kasugano)

Jonidan (3 > 2)
6-1 Jd5e Kazuma (Kise)
7-0 Jd57w Tatsuosho (Tatsunami)
7-0 Jd98w Gonowaka (Takekuma)

Jonokuchi (1 > 0)
6-1 Jk21e Kaki (Oitekaze)

6-1 Jk3e Kyoda (Futagoyama)
5-2 Jk13e Kakusho (Otowayama)
5-2 Jk16w Naniwamusashi (Musashigawa)
6-1 Jk20w Yabugasaki (Yamahibiki)

List without the defeated rikishi:

 

Makushita (yusho decided)
7-0 Ms3e Asahakuryu (Takasago)

Sandanme (yusho decided)
7-0 Sd42w Kobayashi (Kasugano)

Jonidan (7-0 playoff)
7-0 Jd57w Tatsuosho (Tatsunami)
7-0 Jd98w Gonowaka (Takekuma)

Jonokuchi (nobody undefeated; 6-1 playoff)
6-1 Jk3e Kyoda (Futagoyama)
6-1 Jk20w Yabugasaki (Yamahibiki)
6-1 Jk21e Kaki (Oitekaze)

I'll start off with the only 6-0 bout that didn't have any sort of upset, Asahakuryu's victory in makushita. Yago gave it a good shot, but I would say the bout was perfectly reflective of the power difference that we would normally expect to see when a top 5 guy goes against someone from the lower half of the division. This is going to give Yago the sort of quick boost up the rankings that fellow injury returnees Shimazuumi and Bushozan have only been able to dream of so far, but I'm still finding it hard to get invested in the idea of him actually making it back to juryo. Asahakuryu for his part has managed to cap off a fairly long and winding road through the makushita upper ranks; he has been above Ms30 for the last 12 tournaments, above Ms15 for the last eight, and has never scored worse than 3-4 in all that time.

The sandanme yusho went to Kobayashi after he put himself in a superior position with a semi-henka and followed up with strong and accurate thrusting to oust favourite Mineyaiba in short order. 21-year-old Kobayashi has certainly announced himself as a prospect to watch for with this, although I doubt he's going to have the proverbial rocket strapped to his back; he will probably have his hands full around Ms30 next time. Mineyaiba might well be someone to watch out for in the lower half of makushita from around Ms40, though, as that's still quite a way off from where he was pre-injury.

There have been intermittent comments about returning Kazuma looking "bored" by his inferior competition both last basho and this time, and one has to wonder if he might have underestimated Tatsuosho. He's still going to be a major favourite for the sandanme yusho in September, though. Smart sumo by the Tatsunami-beya winner, in any case, and a deserved victory. It wasn't the yusho yet, however, as...

...mid-sandanme caliber Gonowaka proved to be clearly better than newcomer Kaki and broke open the jonokuchi yusho race while securing himself a playoff spot in jonidan. He should be the underdog against Tatsuosho, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

The two 6-1 pairings in jonokuchi had already taken place by that time so the participants didn't actually know it would be for playoff qualification, but it didn't matter a whole lot as the two winners Yabugasaki and Kyoda were massively stronger than their opponents in any case and ended both matches quickly.

Yabugasaki's loss came against Kaki back on Day 2 and was a match that was over in a blink with Kaki pulling a shitatenage right off the tachiai. Kaki and Kyoda were both defeated by Gonowaka. I suspect 18-year-old high school rookie Yabugasaki will find it the most difficult to win two matches here; between 23-year-old university graduate Kaki and makushita-experienced 22-year-old Kyoda it's a much harder call as to who is the favourite. I'm inclined to expect Kyoda to win, though.

In any case these two playoffs will take place between the juryo and makuuchi division matches tomorrow, before the winners are coming right back to the stage alongside Kobayashi, Asahakuryu and the yet to be crowned juryo division champion to receive their winners' certificates. The juryo division itself may in fact add to the playoff proceedings as a tie between two or three rikishi is still possible there; 11-3 leader J11w Mita (Futagoyama) is trying to hold off 10-4 pursuers J6w Daiseizan and J14e Kotokuzan (both Arashio).

Edited July 26 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,134]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

So the Takasago triple promotion is on—does anyone know if this is a first?

I've brute-forced it. Since 1958 since I don't trust the promotion/demotion metrics to have been sufficiently comparable with fewer annual basho (and it also conveniently gets rid of all the "Dewanoumi is the überstable" years):

1964.11 Tokitsukaze x4
1974.11 Kasugano x3
1976.03 Kasugano x3
1976.09 Kasugano x3
1978.01 Dewanoumi x3
1979.07 Sadogatake x3

Nothing since.

The Kasugano ones are pretty amazing since that's actually 8 different rikishi.

Edited July 26 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,748]

3 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I've brute-forced it.

Out of reacts, but thanks!

[robnplunder 978]

14 hours ago, hypnoowl said:

All this ozeki talk reminds me of the last year's Hiradoumi debacle. Though in case of Aonishiki it is definitely a lot more justified, he can't keep grabbing legs, and his low stance shenanigans are obviously hard on his back judging by the cupping marks. Sounds like a broken record at this point, but it may be wise to wait another basho before declaring him ozeki.

I wonder what if Takerufuji and Hakuoho didn't have their early career injuries.    Hopefully, Ao avoids a similar happenstance.

[Churaumi 753]

2 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I wonder what if Takerufuji and Hakuoho didn't have their early career injuries.    Hopefully, Ao avoids a similar happenstance.

If he does, hopefully he gets it treated quickly and effectively and doesn't try to finish a basho with a debilitating injury that he might just be making worse by showing up and losing everyday. Can't think of why that would be on my mind this basho...

[I am the Yokozuna 218]

Hakuoho is still only 21, so he has plenty of time to grow and climb the ranks. This basho, he was particularly interesting to watch, mixing different techniques and approaches in his bouts.
In contrast, time may be running out for Takerufuji to establish himself as a sanyaku mainstay as he is 26 and once again injured. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Juryo promotion to maku'uchi:

Already achieved: Shonannoumi, Tomokaze, Nishikigi, Ryuden

Missed by one win but may be eligible: Hitoshi (43), Daiseizan (44)

Which, as I see it, means that Shishi (44/48) can survive if he wins today

The numbers in brackets are where they should be placed "by the numbers" with Y1e being 1, and J1e being 43.

 

Edited July 27 by Tigerboy1966
explanation

[Akinomaki 41,571]

3-12 for Shimanoumi at j12 - will Akiseyama have to pack his things and move on or will the untouchable count on a quick return and try to get enough sekitori basho to reestablish Izutsu-beya

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

So, in summary:

Relegated from maku'uchi: Kotoeiho, Endo, Chiyoshoma, Kayo, Hidenoumi

Promoted from juro: Shonannoumi, Tomokaze, Ryuden, Nishikigi and almost certainly Hitoshi

The last spot in maku'uchi is a tie between Shishi and Daiseizan. I would normally expect the nod to go to the current maku'uchi wrestler, but we shall see.

[Bunbukuchagama 924]

36 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

The last spot in maku'uchi is a tie between Shishi and Daiseizan. I would normally expect the nod to go to the current maku'uchi wrestler, but we shall see.

Shishi stays, Daiseizan is too low. And M18e will be created.

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

6 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

7 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

The last spot in maku'uchi is a tie between Shishi and Daiseizan. I would normally expect the nod to go to the current maku'uchi wrestler, but we shall see.

Shishi stays, Daiseizan is too low. And M18e will be created.

Yup. Spot on. You can get promoted from J6 with 10 wins (I think HItoshi will do so this time), but not ahead of a borderline demotion case like Shishi. Daiseizan misses out by being on the wrong side of the banzuke.

Looks like this banzuke won't take too much deliberation once they have decided what to do with Daieisho.

[Gurowake 4,136]

I don't think they promote Hitoshi but not Daiseizan.  Same record at the same rank they usually do the same thing with unless there's no other choice.  Both of them not having quite promotable scores, not having Makuuchi experience, and there being no other really required demotions after Endo, Hidenoumi, Kayo, and Chiyoshoma suggests to me that Kotoeiho gets saved.

[Gurowake 4,136]

I just did up a banzuke forgetting to put Oshoma into Makuuchi somehow.  If you saw a post suggesting something about the Makushita promotion situation that didn't make any sense given the actual situation, that's why.  I've since deleted it.

Edit:  I found another huge mistake on that attempt at a banzuke, somehow copying Miyanokaze's previous basho result into this one, so that post would make even less sense if anyone saw it.

Edited July 27 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,136]

So this does appear to be a decent test of the Juryo-Makushita exchange hypothesis.  It makes little sense to give a Juryo rikishi an exchange bout against someone who clearly would replace him if the Makushita rikishi won, only to replace the Juryo rikishi with someone else instead after he wins.  That is, I'm seeing Nishinoryu vs. Daiamami for the last slot by the numbers of the hypothesis going for Nishinoryu, but it would be surprising to me if that exchange actually took place for the above reason.  Still, it's worth repeating that there's a disconnect between the torikumi and banzuke preparation, and the former may have been done by people not counting properly.  Or maybe I'm just still not counting properly...

Edited July 27 by Gurowake

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

14 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I don't think they promote Hitoshi but not Daiseizan.  Same record at the same rank they usually do the same thing with unless there's no other choice.  Both of them not having quite promotable scores, not having Makuuchi experience, and there being no other really required demotions after Endo, Hidenoumi, Kayo, and Chiyoshoma suggests to me that Kotoeiho gets saved.

You may be right. My thinking was that Kotoeiho's record was pretty damn close to being a "required demotion" and he comes out clearly behind Hitoshi. But if the rule for the J6 candidates is "both or none", then Kotoeiho might be lucky.

[Gurowake 4,136]

2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

You may be right. My thinking was that Kotoeiho's record was pretty damn close to being a "required demotion" and he comes out clearly behind Hitoshi. But if the rule for the J6 candidates is "both or none", then Kotoeiho might be lucky.

When they have not demoted someone with a 6-9 at the last position of the banzuke multiple times, a 6-9 at the not-last-position clearly doesn't seem like a required demotion.  Considering that there are 2 spots below Kotoeiho's current position on the next banzuke, it makes sense to me given their general tendencies to put him at M18 rather than demoting him.

Edited July 27 by Gurowake

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Unless there's still a mistake in how I've prepared my mock banzuke....

If that is a mistake, I have made the same one. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Just checking some history... since 1958 an M17 with a 6-9 record has only survived once, and that was Nishikifuji after Nagoya '24. The best unpromoted record in juryo then was Tamashoho with 9-6 at 6w which is obviously inferior to our two J6 10-5s this time. However, Nishikifuji was at number 42 on the banzuke rather than number 40. Kotoeiho can therefore be moved down a full rank without being relegated.