Sumo Spiffy

I don't think we can make any reasonable predictions about Hokuseiho until we see him put forth actual effort for all fifteen fights in a basho. He's going to move pretty slowly up the ranks if he remains attached to his One-Arm Sumo philosophy.

I agree that's at least probable, but they rate joi competition more highly. Assuming the sanyaku wasn't gargantuan and the M3 had a full sanyaku run, that would probably swing it their way. I don't think someone in juryo will receive that kind of benefit. Akua was just squeaking into the division. Obviously Mitoryu was as well, but that still makes it easier to shut Akua out. We've also seen them do other funky things recently when there's only a half-rank separating guys; maybe it's because that's effectively just the difference between east and west, I don't know. So, if it was a half-rank difference, that would be much more plausible. The thing that could happen is that they decide it's OK to dial down a huge promotion just like they sometimes dial down huge demotions. I guess we'll find out in a month.

I still can't fathom this assumption that Atamifuji's the one that's going to get left out. There are some minimum expectations for promotions, e.g. you're going up on 8-7 unless it's absolutely impossible to make it happen, but two ranks on 10-5 absolutely falls within the bounds of plausibility. And it's not like they're tied; if the committee consistently favored the better record in tied situations, but it looked like maybe they won't do that here, I could understand that, but Atami is a full rank ahead of Meatball. Could it happen? Yeah, they do silly shit all the time. But expecting it? I don't get that. Edit: I'm aware no one this century has gone 10-5 at J3 and not been promoted to makuuchi. But we haven't had anyone above J11 go 13-2 and not get that promotion, either. Something's gotta give. And considering there have been instances of J4s not making makuuchi on 10-5, Meatball seems the most likely to stay back both by math and precedent (to the extent precedent means anything right now).

It's been rare to see the top ranks whoop so hard they deserve it. Unless something got left out, it's nice that they didn't bag on Takakeisho for squeaking out an 8-7 with a pretty obvious injury.

This. One win equals two full ranks of movement, all other things being equal. Being one win off of a guy when you're only a half-rank ahead absolutely puts you behind him.

Eh heh heh heh...

But... wait. I agree that the Asanoyama case shouldn't be relevant to the Ochiai case, but isn't it at least somewhat connected to the Shimanoumi case, where the one you're talking about who could have gone up didn't actually calculate to the next division either? Basically, if someone in the higher division calculates down to the next division, and someone in the lower division calculates up, which is what Ochiai's case is probably going to be, isn't that when we just expect it to happen and it pretty much always does? Mitoryu might have been able to save himself with a 7-8 (again), but Kagayaki can't as long as someone in juryo calculates into makuuchi. I also feel like we're saying shit we've said plenty of times and we agree with each other on all of this, and I'm getting confused about something much smaller than it looks like in the middle of conversation.

So, with this in mind, if Shodai wins and Kotonowaka loses, and Abi also loses, do either of the komusubi get demoted? Without an 8-7 Abi, a 9-6 Nishikigi would be the next in line.

I dunno... we still see lots of guys jump away from falling pushers, and those calls hardly go in the pusher's favor all the time. Ura was still well over the dohyo and not even that far off the ground, which seems to be when the dead body rule gets put back in their pockets. I'm not saying it was a scam or anything, but it sure looked like that could have gone for Ura.

You my dude, and I always appreciate the work you put into this thing, but this line of thought baffles me. Kagayaki is done—five guys from juryo are promotion-eligible, and he's MK at the bottom makuuchi rank with a maximum of five makuuchi guys having the potential for demotion. Plus, all the juryo would-bes calculate well into makuuchi, with the sole exception of Meatball, and that's only if he loses his last match. There is no banzuke luck that's going to save Kegs. Ochiai should be third in line right now with three definite demotions from makuuchi. It's not a given that he'll go up, since a loss combined with an Atami 2600 win would put him fourth, and both Aoiyama and Takarafuji can save themselves with wins. But this revolves around Big Dan and the Old Man now. Edit: If Ochiai loses and Bushozan wins, Ochiai is still a half-rank ahead on math. Atami is the only one who can fall behind Meatball in the pecking order. The fact Ochiai and Atami are J8 should be meaningless—not that long ago we were talking about whether they would find a way to squeak Asanoyama into makuuchi on 13-2 at J12. The only way either of them fail to promote to makuuchi is if there aren't enough spaces for everyone eligible, and the committee holds to the idea of not demoting anyone who can stay in makuuchi by math. They are, on a basic level, very easily promotable, and even in the worst case scenario, one of them is going up.

Eh... it's hard to think of a guy as being a "prime" sanyaku candidate after that 1-6 shitshow he had to start the basho. I realize you might just mean that he's in control of his own destiny, but he's luckboxing his way into the position on the basis of everyone else ahead of him getting clapped up by the full sanyaku while he got to dodge Kiri and Hoshoryu, on top of getting Keisho after he started slipping physically. Beating Waka Deux is legit, as is winning against Kotonowaka in the midst of his ever-more-normalized late-basho turnaround, but for a guy in the joi, this is the least Murderer's Row schedule I could imagine.

Ura > Abi Tamawashi > Tobizaru Onosho > Nishikigi AND WE ENTER THE REIGN OF PINKYSUBI LET IT BE DONE

Kotonowaka Myogiryu Ichiyamamoto

If it's changed to allow more time on day 15, that'll be decided and known before the basho starts. Presumably. I don't make those decisions, but I can't imagine it happening any other way.

I realize Kotoshoho is probably figuring he needs one win to maintain top-division status for sure, but all I can think about is how Ishiura was the exact same rank when he felt the need to do this and he never fought again. I realize the nature of the injury was a huge deal for Ishiura, but for fks sake, you had one win for a reason.