Sumo Spiffy

I might not post every one of these, but I get the sense there might be some people who appreciate Black Sabbath and Tamawashi around these parts.

I've always thought of the joi as being the top 16 (active) wrestlers, and matchups eliminated due to stable conflicts just mean an extra match with an opponent outside the joi (relative to however many the affected wrestlers would have had). But I'm happy with whatever, as long as we're clear about it and no one minds keeping track of the more complicated setups (like using anyone in sanyaku as the basis).

Daieisho Tobizaru

Tobizaru Tamawashi Wakamotoharu Ichinojo

If it looked like there was a theoretical possibility of five komusubi (or sekiwake), I'm sure something would be done to account for that in GTB. In this case, there are several reasons that work against there being five komusubi, even if Takayasu were considered worthy of yet another fresh slot, so it doesn't seem like something we need to worry about. (Also, over time the committees have grown more and more reluctant to pop open new slots, so that works against the likelihood of it happening as well.)

Round of 16: Match 1: Takanosho vs Kotonowaka Match 2: Ichinojo vs Wakatakakage Match 3: Tamawashi vs Takayasu Match 4: Tobizaru vs Abi Match 5: Hokutofuji vs Kiribayama Match 6: Daieisho vs Meisei Match 7: Wakamotoharu vs Midorifuji Match 8: Hoshoryu vs Ura

I'm not clear on why this would be the case. Terutsuyoshi's math lands him at J2E; Tohakuryu's puts him at J2W. It's largely appeared that they do consider this a real difference, ie. even if you think that Tohakuryu would be given preference due to his better record were they the same rank, they're not considered the same rank. Maybe that's not the case over a long look at history, but it's certainly seemed to play out that way recently. More than this, however, recent banzukes have clearly shown a preference for those who competed in makuuchi over those who competed in juryo. If Terutsuyoshi's going to land at M16E and Tohakuryu at J1E, it's going to be for this reason. (If Terutsuyoshi stops at M16E and Tohakuryu gets M16W over Hiradoumi, I'm going to be baffled AF.)

One thing I'm curious about is if we think of things in terms of the "strict" joi (who's in the correct ranks) and the "effective" joi (who's likely to be treated as in the joi for at least part of the basho due to injury dropouts either before or during the event). My instant draft has Hokutofuji at M5E, which is #19 on the list with another ten-person sanyaku, but Teru's basically guaranteed to be gone. I realize that still puts him two out, with no guarantee of injuries to others, but if we expected him to be at #17 with an almost guaranteed yokozuna absence, would we think of him as "in the joi" for this basho and thus still a reasonable option for the game?

I already suggested Tamawashi and Takayasu, so I'm good with those options being on the card. Wakamotoharu is also good, as he seems likely to bounce in and out of the joi given recent results. If we're looking for joi more than sanyaku and definitely not ozeki, I think that makes Wakatakakage not a great pick unless we want to play "Figure Out S1E's Schedule" for a while. In the past I've maintained that Ura should struggle in the joi, but at the moment the top level doesn't have the kind of mashers that would launch him back to mid-division (same goes for Midorifuji and Tobizaru), so he seems like a better option than he might have a year ago. Same for Tobizaru. I still expect Midorifuji to pull more of a fade, but that's really a question of whether he can learn enough new tricks to hack it at this level before all the top rikishi figure him out. I don't really like his odds, though—I think he's going to start getting clapped up like Enho did. I don't think he'll drop to being a juryo regular, but I don't think he'll consistently hang around joi range. By the numbers, Daieisho is probably a really good option; I get thrown off by how wildly his results seem to fluctuate, but for this game's purposes he does seem to fit. I also agree that Ichinojo is a good possibility. TBH, should things line up when we have to choose again, I think it would be fun to make Shodai the focus. It seems inevitable he's going to lose ozeki sooner or later, but he's shown he can do quite well when some of his schedule involves those M4-M8 opponents we see people get from the bottom of the joi, so he might eventually end up being quite good for the game.

I've only known the game with no expectation of the wrestler being in the joi, just not being so far down that matchups get skewed due to the fact that starting from the top, it doesn't take long before you have to play with things to stop repeat bouts. I'm happy with Hokutofuji as long as he's single-digit maegashira. If it's generally desired to have a different wrestler as the focus of the game, and it's preferred they generally stay in the joi (with sanyaku trips being acceptable), at this point Tamawashi and Takayasu seem like good options. If switching things up isn't a big deal, I think Tamawashi's age becomes less of a factor, and he's only been below M4 once in the last year-plus. Takayasu strikes me as better still as long as he's healthy; I don't see him making ozeki again by any means, he won't be sanyaku this coming basho, and I'm not convinced he's as likely to make the sanyaku as Tamawashi is to stay there for a bit. But I'm gonna keep playing whoever we use.

Have to get my pick in early, so let's go with Disappointing Daishoho.

Will again be out all day, so ahead of time: Primary: Wakamotoharu Secondary: Hokutofuji

Again, getting these done ahead of time; again, hopefully I'm not making any dumb mistakes. Ichinojo Tobizaru Chiyoshoma

what

15. Hoshoryu