GTB invite- Hatsu 2024 --RESULTS!! 199 entries.

[Kintamayama 45,628]

This is a secret but formal invitation to play the "Guess the Banzuke" game!! 25 years, 153rd basho. Please play. It's fun and healthy and free.

Game rules: Guess the Banzuke. Simple. You get two points for a bulls-eye and one point for just getting the rank right. You get no points for complaining. About anything.. Tiebreakers - Most total guesses, then we check the banzuke backwards - getting the lower half right will be important.  The most correct guesses in the last ten places will win the tiebreaker. If still tied, we go up a ranking at a time like a penalty shootout. If still tied, the YDC will convene and discuss this. It's up to you to check if you are on the list of entries. It's up to you to check if  your entry was accepted and did not go missing in the Internet void. No late entries will be expected or accepted. The entry process is very simple and fully automated so don't be put off by thinking this is technically complicated in any way. The game itself - very complicated indeed. 

For rules that will never be changed, standings and love : http://www.dichne.com/Guess.htm

For the nifty entry form, which will hopefully continue to do what it's intended to do : http://sumodb.sumoga...b/GTBEntry.aspx

For Chiyotasuke's incredible helper: https://chiyotasuke.github.io/gtbhelper/

For the archives: http://sumodb.sumoga...gtbarchive.aspx

See if you are on the entry list: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBEntryList.aspx

Deadline: Monday, December 18th, 2023  at 18:00 GMT ("Give Me Time!!! ) - PLEASE NOTE-THIS IS ONE WEEK BEFORE THE OFFICIAL BANZUKE ANNOUNCEMENT!!

Edited December 24, 2023 by Kintamayama

[Kaito 311]

My first impression is that this will be a very high-scoring edition with bulls-eyes galore. And hopefully I'll return to form.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,276]

I am worried, it’s so easy to optimize by the numbers on this one that they are going to do something monumentally silly and the whole thing is a half rank off

[Bunbukuchagama 778]

2 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I am worried, it’s so easy to optimize by the numbers on this one that they are going to do something monumentally silly and the whole thing is a half rank off

That would require an extra Komusubi. Which doesn't seem likely.

[Kintamayama 45,628]

Two weeks to go, we're going for the record..

[Jakusotsu 6,056]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

Two weeks to go, we're going for the record..

This one?

[Yarimotsu 597]

Really not long left... 

[RaeucherLax 290]

Phew, somehow I thought the deadline would be around X-mas day... but there are only 4 days left to enter 
I had no time to PROPERLY prepare a decent entry so I just submitted my hopeless attempt as always 

[Sumo Spiffy 582]

@Chiyotasuke Hey, I have a question about the helper. Is there a way to save a current loadout and revert back to it? I see that the data can be exported, but what I'm specifically thinking of is a way to do the initial math, save that lineup, make adjustments, then revert back to the initial math and try other ideas rather than a full reset and redoing the math again.

[Chiyotasuke 310]

12 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

@Chiyotasuke Hey, I have a question about the helper. Is there a way to save a current loadout and revert back to it? I see that the data can be exported, but what I'm specifically thinking of is a way to do the initial math, save that lineup, make adjustments, then revert back to the initial math and try other ideas rather than a full reset and redoing the math again.

Thanks for the suggestion. Just done making that. I made it so that you can have multiple drafts too.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Is it just me or did the banzuke come together relatively easily this time round? No real logjams anywhere.

[Sumo Spiffy 582]

4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Is it just me or did the banzuke come together relatively easily this time round? No real logjams anywhere.

A lot of 50/50s that the committee can completely mess with us on, though. Like, they probably should go this way, but which ones go that way?

[Oshirokita 192]

34 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Is it just me or did the banzuke come together relatively easily this time round? No real logjams anywhere.

I was tempted to say that it is just you. But that probably means that I am out of touch with the banzuke committee... again.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

48 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

A lot of 50/50s that the committee can completely mess with us on, though. Like, they probably should go this way, but which ones go that way?

Yeah, that's almost always the case, but at least there are no hard problems that would inspire arguments over pages this time - like what to do with 5 DD MKs in the joi and no candidates to replace them. From the initial allocation by the numbers, there were relatively few clashes, and most of them could be resolved by just smearing the adjacent rikishi over a half rank.

[Reonito 1,533]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah, that's almost always the case, but at least there are no hard problems that would inspire arguments over pages this time - like what to do with 5 DD MKs in the joi and no candidates to replace them. From the initial allocation by the numbers, there were relatively few clashes, and most of them could be resolved by just smearing the adjacent rikishi over a half rank.

M9-M13 got pretty crowded, presumably as a consequence of san'yaku shrinking, with quite a few people ending up under-promoted or eating their full demotion (and a bit more).

[Asashosakari 19,726]

14 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Is it just me or did the banzuke come together relatively easily this time round? No real logjams anywhere.

I agree. This might be the best chance ever for somebody to achieve a perfect score. Of course it's unlikely that the committee has actually played along and so we'll get some slots where all of us will be scratching our heads, but there's really very, very little of the usual "there are no good solutions and it's anybody's guess which bad one they went with" here.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,276]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

I agree. This might be the best chance ever for somebody to achieve a perfect score. Of course it's unlikely that the committee has actually played along and so we'll get some slots where all of us will be scratching our heads, but there's really very, very little of the usual "there are no good solutions and it's anybody's guess which bad one they went with" here.

Also, with 200 entries now, a lot of chances...

[Wamahada 58]

Deadline has passed with … how many participants?

[Sumo Spiffy 582]

4 minutes ago, Wamahada said:

Deadline has passed with … how many participants?

I hope I'm wrong, but I counted 199.

[chishafuwaku 476]

200 says excel

[Asashosakari 19,726]

Well, let's open the floodgates on all the highly similar entries...

Terunofuji (Ye 0-0-15)  Y    ---
Kirishima (O1w 13-2 Y)  O1   Hoshoryu (O2w 10-5)
---                     O2   Takakeisho (O1e 9-6)
Daieisho (S1e 9-6)      S    Kotonowaka (S2e 11-4)
Takayasu (M3e 10-5)     K    Ura (M1w 8-7)

Wakamotoharu (S1w 6-9)  M1   Abi (Ke 6-9)
Atamifuji (M8w 11-4)    M2   Midorifuji (M5w 9-6)
Gonoyama (M4e 8-7)      M3   Hokutofuji (Kw 5-10)
Tobizaru (M3w 7-8)      M4   Shodai (M2e 6-9)
Nishikigi (M4w 7-8)     M5   Ryuden (M10e 10-5)
Kinbozan (M7w 8-7)      M6   Asanoyama (M1e 4-4-7)
Shonannoumi (M6e 7-8)   M7   Ichiyamamoto (M14w 11-4)
Hokuseiho (M7e 7-8)     M8   Hiradoumi (M11w 9-6)
Mitakeumi (M9w 8-7)     M9   Meisei (M2w 4-11)
Tamawashi (M12w 9-6)    M10  Sadanoumi (M11e 8-7)
Tsurugisho (M13w 9-6)   M11  Oho (M12e 8-7)
Takanosho (M6w 5-6-4)   M12  Myogiryu (M9e 6-9)
Churanoumi (M15w 9-6)   M13  Endo (M8e 5-10)
Onosho (M5e 3-12)       M14  Kotoshoho (J1w 12-3 Y)
Tomokaze (M14e 7-8)     M15  Takarafuji (M13e 6-9)
Onosato (J5e 12-3 D)    M16  Bushozan (J2e 10-5)
Shimazuumi (J2w 9-6)    M17  Aoiyama (J1e 8-7)

 

[Reonito 1,533]

9 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Wakamotoharu (S1w 6-9)  M1   Abi (Ke 6-9)
Atamifuji (M8w 11-4)    M2   Midorifuji (M5w 9-6)
Gonoyama (M4e 8-7)      M3   Hokutofuji (Kw 5-10)

I thought I was being generous to the sanyaku dropouts, but I have Atami ahead of Waka and Midori ahead of Abi. Other differences: Ryuden ahead of Nishikigi (this really felt like a coin flip), Endo ahead of Churanoumi (second-guessing that one), Onosato ahead of Takarafuji. That's 14 GTB points I think?

[Gurowake 4,111]

10 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

M9   Meisei (M2w 4-11)

I'll post my full guess when I get home from work, but I from what I recall Meisei was the one rikishi I was most torn on.  I believe I ended up putting him higher than he would be by the numbers, which I think means that I have him swapped with Hiradoumi.  Based on the recent precedents I may have been a bit too generous, but my gut feeling was that 4-11 is close enough to a terrible score to get a small bit of leeway in terms of numbers, and the sanyaku were rather dominant this tournament, which made me want to be generous to those who had to fight through it versus those that didn't.  

[Asashosakari 19,726]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'll post my full guess when I get home from work, but I from what I recall Meisei was the one rikishi I was most torn on.  I believe I ended up putting him higher than he would be by the numbers, which I think means that I have him swapped with Hiradoumi.  Based on the recent precedents I may have been a bit too generous, but my gut feeling was that 4-11 is close enough to a terrible score to get a small bit of leeway in terms of numbers, and the sanyaku were rather dominant this tournament, which made me want to be generous to those who had to fight through it versus those that didn't.  

Yeah, I must blame the previous banzuke for my Meisei decision there, since it had (contrary to my guess):

Myogiryu (M13e 10-5)  M9   Mitakeumi (M11e 9-6)

Hiradoumi in front of Mitakeumi made Meisei getting the full 7-rank drop unavoidable, since Mitakeumi going M9w 8-7 -> M9w is IMHO even less likely.

Maybe they've swapped Hokuseiho with Meisei...

[Reonito 1,533]

15 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'll post my full guess when I get home from work, but I from what I recall Meisei was the one rikishi I was most torn on.  I believe I ended up putting him higher than he would be by the numbers, which I think means that I have him swapped with Hiradoumi.  Based on the recent precedents I may have been a bit too generous, but my gut feeling was that 4-11 is close enough to a terrible score to get a small bit of leeway in terms of numbers, and the sanyaku were rather dominant this tournament, which made me want to be generous to those who had to fight through it versus those that didn't.  

I thought about that one too, but didn't do it because of the general logjam in that area which already involved under-promoting people.