Banzuke for Haru 2023

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

19 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm glad that sanity prevailed concerning Hokuseiho and Asanoyama.

While it's certainly defensible -- keeping Hokuseiho in -- and I ultimately slotted him in, there is still the fact that Asanoyama carried him off the dohyo like his grandson on day 15 in a match that could have been treated with the same implications as Tomokaze-v-Tochikamiyama.

[I am the Yokozuna 194]

Harsh on Asanoyama. Should have been in Makunouchi after a 14-1 yusho. 

[ryafuji 815]

2 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

While it's certainly defensible -- keeping Hokuseiho in -- and I ultimately slotted him in, there is still the fact that Asanoyama carried him off the dohyo like his grandson on day 15 in a match that could have been treated with the same implications as Tomokaze-v-Tochikamiyama.

But Tomokaze forced Tochikamiyama into a make-koshi so they really aren't comparable. Hokuseiho still had a promotable record.

[ryafuji 815]

2 hours ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

Harsh on Asanoyama. Should have been in Makunouchi after a 14-1 yusho. 

Would have been harsher on Hokuseiho. Blame Mitoryu for not losing. There just wasn't an opening. 

[Reonito 1,477]

2 hours ago, ryafuji said:

But Tomokaze forced Tochikamiyama into a make-koshi so they really aren't comparable. Hokuseiho still had a promotable record.

If Hokuseiho had one fewer win, it would have effectively been an exchange bout, but given their actual records going into day 15, it didn't end up mattering.

[Koorifuu 1,003]

This whole question was only ever presented because it's an underranked, healthy former ozeki from whom there was some value to gain with an overpromotion.

Had this been literally anyone else, it wouldn't ever be in doubt: a slam dunk promotion for Hokuseiho.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Koorifuu

[maglor 122]

8 hours ago, shumitto said:

Fighting lower rankers might be a small advantage but given the huge disadvantage of being unable to fight in his prime for a rather extended period of time against a not superbly strong field, is like getting 5 box after losing 50. So not a great deal IMHO even if we consider he brought that on himself.

I agree of course(though the relative value of a yusho might be higher, how much would Takayasu give for one? Hell Asanoyama has never won a yusho against a joi schedule), but if the punishment is to lose 50 you should lose 50 not 45. Punishments shouldn't come with rewards at the end of them

[Kishinoyama 595]

Hiradoumi's Juryo record: 

2021.11 J13w 7-7-1  

2022.01 J14e 8-7  

2022.03 J11e 7-8 

 2022.05 J11e 8-7  

2022.07 J8e 10-5  - Promoted to Makuuchi

2022.09 M16w 7-8 

Hokuseiho's Juryo record:

2022.07 J13w 11-4  

2022.09 J9e 9-6  

2022.11 J6e 10-5  

2023.01 J2e 9-6 - Promoted to Makuuchi

2023.03 M15e 0-0 

After comparing Juryo records with Hiradoumi, I think it is about time that Hokuseiho benefited from some "banzuke luck".

[Bunbukuchagama 738]

24 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

Hiradoumi's Juryo record: 

2021.11 J13w 7-7-1  

2022.01 J14e 8-7  

2022.03 J11e 7-8 

 2022.05 J11e 8-7  

2022.07 J8e 10-5  - Promoted to Makuuchi

2022.09 M16w 7-8 

Hokuseiho's Juryo record:

2022.07 J13w 11-4  

2022.09 J9e 9-6  

2022.11 J6e 10-5  

2023.01 J2e 9-6 - Promoted to Makuuchi

2023.03 M15e 0-0 

After comparing Juryo records with Hiradoumi, I think it is about time that Hokuseiho benefited from some "banzuke luck".

Another example. Atamifuji:

2022.03	J12w		7-8
2022.05	J12w		10-5
2022.07	J6e		8-7
2022.09	J3e		8-7
2022.11	M15w		4-11
2023.01	J3e		3-8-4
2023.03	J8w		0-0

[Kishinoyama 595]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Another example. Atamifuji:

2022.03	J12w		7-8
2022.05	J12w		10-5
2022.07	J6e		8-7
2022.09	J3e		8-7
2022.11	M15w		4-11
2023.01	J3e		3-8-4
2023.03	J8w		0-0

It is amazing that some have this kind of banzuke luck.

[Reonito 1,477]

Here are the most extreme examples of this genre I could find from Juryo debut to Makuuchi debut. The last two were under exceptional circumstances, but still!

Yamamotoyama 2008.09 J12e  9-6       2008.11 J3w 9-6        2009.01 M15w 8-7

Fujiazuma            2011.01 J13w 8-7       2011.05 J8w 9-6        2011.07 M15e 10-5

Aoiyama               2011.07 J4w   7-8       2011.09  J6e 10-3-2   2011.11 M16e 11-4

Edited February 28, 2023 by Reonito

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

6 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

This whole question was only ever presented because it's an underranked, healthy former ozeki from whom there was some value to gain with an overpromotion.

Had this been literally anyone else, it wouldn't ever be in doubt: a slam dunk promotion for Hokuseiho.

There's also the fact that you can count on Asanoyama to win 9 out of 10 matches against Hokuseiho today. It will be nice if Hokuseiho can show us something different in the next 5 years but in March 2023 this is the reality.

[maglor 122]

I don't understand what that could possibly have to do with the banzuke. This was also true when Asanoyama went 7-0 in Sandamne, should he have been promoted straight to Makuuchi then?

[shumitto 418]

16 hours ago, maglor said:

I agree of course(though the relative value of a yusho might be higher, how much would Takayasu give for one? Hell Asanoyama has never won a yusho against a joi schedule), but if the punishment is to lose 50 you should lose 50 not 45. Punishments shouldn't come with rewards at the end of them

I get your point, I guess. You expect a punishment to be all bad things, but there is a good side to it that is part of almost any such punishment in sumo, like the time to rest the body a little after so many years of hard work  - losing fitness in the process, nothing comes for free -, gearing up with softer foes before rejoining the big event, picking up a couple of Yusho on the way just an additional booster to one's self confidence , and maybe a good re-entry spot in Makuuchi. It simply can't be helped.

[Seiyashi 4,102]

6 minutes ago, shumitto said:

I get your point, I guess. You expect a punishment to be all bad things, but there is a good side to it that is part of almost any such punishment in sumo, like the time to rest the body a little after so many years of hard work  - losing fitness in the process, nothing comes for free -, gearing up with softer foes before rejoining the big event, picking up a couple of Yusho on the way just an additional booster to one's self confidence , and maybe a good re-entry spot in Makuuchi. It simply can't be helped.

Has anyone done the math on the financial cost of Asanoyama's suspension, assuming he remained ōzeki but yūshō-less all this while? I'm willing to bet the lower division yūshōs didn't even make up for the loss of salary while suspended, never mind the time in the lower divisions on the way back. 

[maglor 122]

15 minutes ago, shumitto said:

I get your point, I guess. You expect a punishment to be all bad things, but there is a good side to it that is part of almost any such punishment in sumo, like the time to rest the body a little after so many years of hard work  - losing fitness in the process, nothing comes for free -, gearing up with softer foes before rejoining the big event, picking up a couple of Yusho on the way just an additional booster to one's self confidence , and maybe a good re-entry spot in Makuuchi. It simply can't be helped.

Well the highly increased chance of a yusho can at least be helped: just promote Asanoyama to a higher ranker's schedule 6 or 7 days in instead of 12

[Ripe 71]

27 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Has anyone done the math on the financial cost of Asanoyama's suspension, assuming he remained ōzeki but yūshō-less all this while? I'm willing to bet the lower division yūshōs didn't even make up for the loss of salary while suspended, never mind the time in the lower divisions on the way back. 

I believe he is going to loose a little under 150k yen per basho for the rest of his career in mochikyūkin allowance (meaning he already lost over a million yen so far) due to his dropping out of both Makuuchi and Juryo... and of course, he didn't receive any mochikyūkin allowance while he wasn't a sekitori (I'm not sure if he'd get it for his four sekitori basho he was suspended) which at minimum means he missed out five (and it could be as many as nine) basho at about 450k yen each. So rough estimate would be he already lost between 3 and 3.5 million yen just in mochikyūkin bonus. To that amount should be added all the kensho he didn't win, but I'm not sure how to calculate that... and of course, he missed out on all the salary he would get during that time frame.

And as I said before, his loses due to suspension are not over since he is going to continue loosing little under 150k yen per basho for the remainder of his career.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Ripe

[Gurowake 4,088]

38 minutes ago, Ripe said:

I believe he is going to loose a little under 150k yen per basho for the rest of his career in mochikyūkin allowance (meaning he already lost over a million yen so far) due to his dropping out of both Makuuchi and Juryo

Is this entirely due to the fact that he received a large increase in his base bonus because of his fast rise into the top division that he's not getting on his return?  I haven't done the math, but I certainly would expect he'd have gotten a large increase to his base amount when he was promoted to each sekitori division, but then while in Makuuchi racked up enough wins so that his base amount upon return would not be bumped up at all.  I had a similar thing going through my mind when Osunaarashi was demoted from Makuuchi, because he also had a large increase in his base amount from his fast rise.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

2 hours ago, maglor said:

I don't understand what that could possibly have to do with the banzuke. This was also true when Asanoyama went 7-0 in Sandamne, should he have been promoted straight to Makuuchi then?

Shiden was promoted to Juryo and hasn't fought a single match there because ... gambling. "Yes that makes perfect sense."
Asanoyama had roughly the same promotion packet as Hokuseiho and destroyed him head to head on day 15 and could do it 5 more times in a row - people are considering promoting him ahead of Hokuseiho. "I don't understand what that could possibly have to do with the banzuke."

[maglor 122]

Yes when you get punished you lose rank.

Asanoyama had a clearly worse promotion case to Hokuseiho, and so was not promoted. Banzuke promotions are not done on the concept of who is better or who would beat who head to head.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

13 minutes ago, maglor said:

Yes when you get punished you lose rank.

Asanoyama had a clearly worse promotion case to Hokuseiho, and so was not promoted. Banzuke promotions are not done on the concept of who is better or who would beat who head to head.

I had Hokuseiho ahead of Asanoyama in my 15-0 GTB entry but it was not an easy decision at all.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,275]

So are we gonna learn this time to not make up the way the committee thinks and then be surprised they don’t decide that way? Before the Asanoyama is more valued than Hokuseiho thing we had they won’t stand for four Komusubi basho after basho.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Another point that I would make is that Tokushoryu (14-1) was promoted from M17w to M2w landing behind Okinoumi (8-7) who jumped from M4e to M2e. There he would finish 4-11.

Shortly thereafter Terunofuji (13-2) was promoted from M17e to M1e landing ahead of Takanosho (8-7) who jumped from M2e to M1w.

 

The idea that there's a hard and fast rule explaining why Asanoyama (14-1) at J12w would or wouldn't jump ahead of Hokuseiho (9-6) at J2e is something that the evidence doesn't support.

[Asashosakari 19,500]

One speculative notion that I don't think I've seen verbalized yet: Maybe not wanting to jeopardize Takakeisho's tsuna run is the reason they didn't promote Asanoyama. ;)

Anyway, IMHO the most important take-way here is: The Japanese press guys don't necessarily have any real clue about unannounced promotions either.

[Reonito 1,477]

15 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

One speculative notion that I don't think I've seen verbalized yet: Maybe not wanting to jeopardize Takakeisho's tsuna run is the reason they didn't promote Asanoyama. ;)

That had occurred to me, though one could also have argued for promoting him to give Keisho a proper challenger. It would for sure have been interesting to be a fly on the wall for that part of the discussion.